NY Mets Preview Part 1 – Position Players or Can Somebody Just Get on Base?

I won’t pretend that I take things in stride. Most things annoy me to the point of ranty blogging. But few topics fill me with such fury as the New York Baseball Mets.

Yes, the Mets are the team of my youth, and sadly, it’s by choice. Poppa Bloggin Hood is a Yankee Fan. There’s photos of me as an infant wearing Yankee gear, an impossible mixture for me  today. My dad never forced his teams on me. He always let me pick.

Now, I don’t remember exactly what happened, but my theory is that in the late 80s, the Mets were actually better than the Yankees. It’s probably the only time in the sport’s history it occurred for longer than one season. My logic as a two year old would have been “Why would I root for the Yankees when the Mets were better?” Naturally, I switched. The suckers who stuck with the Yankees would deal with years of mediocre play while the Mets had a dynasty build around Darryl Strawberry, Doc Gooden and Lenny Dykstra.

Oh dear

Naturally, this lead to three decades of disappointment. The Mets won the World Series in 1986. I was born in 1987. The Mets have not won the World Series since that time. Meanwhile, the Yankees have won five titles since, and look to be setting up another dynasty. If I had any luck, I’d have none.

This doesn’t mean I’ve given up hope. Not at all. In fact, I’m the worst kind of fan. The type that gets far too invested in the team, only to be devastated after a loss. I feel betrayed when the team won’t spend money on free agents, and horrified when they trade away players. At time, I swear this is the last game I’ll ever watch. Then, the next day, I’m back again, just as into it as ever.

Being an optimistic Mets fan is like swimming in shark infested waters covered in blood assuming you won’t be hurt. The hurt is coming, it’s just a matter on when.

If that comparison was too graphic for you, consider me like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. The Mets are Lucy. I assume the football is the team’s success. That probably makes Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom Snoopy and Woodstock. I’m surprisingly ok with that.

Before we begin, I’d like to take some time to list the incidents that stick in my head as the personal injuries the Mets have caused me. There’s a good amount so I’ll stick to things occurring in 2000 on. These are in no order.

-The Mets make a surprising run to the World Series to play the Yankees, and get destroyed in the first Subway Series. All the fake Mets fan who quickly appeared vanish even quicker.

-The Mets sign agile, swift Mo Vaughn, a 350 pound first baseman. Shocking, Mo Vaughn doesn’t age gracefully and is broken down by the time he joins the club. He does hit the second hardest ball I’ve ever seen, against the Yankees which propelled them nowhere.

– Roger Clemens proceeds to headhunt Mike Piazza with baseballs and bats. When asked as to why he threw a bat at Piazza, he responded with “I thought it was the ball”. No, I’m not making this up. When the Mets finally got a chance to enact revenge as Clemens came to bat at Shea Stadium, they missed by throwing behind him 19 feet. We couldn’t even hit players correctly.

– In 2006, the Mets lose a heartbreaking seven game series to the Cardinals.  Carlos Beltran strikes out looking to end the game with the bases loaded. Most people remember that pitch, but the pitch before was a hanging curveball Beltran fouled off, missing by a centimeter from tying the game. I endure taunts about this by fans of teams not even in the playoffs for my entire college career.

– 2007 as a whole. Ok yes they collapsed, but its more than that. Johan Santana pitches a 3 hit complete game to keep the Mets alive. They actually got the exact help they needed and then Tom Glavine took the mound.

Glavine, of course, was a filthy Brave for most of his career. I hated the signing because I’m sports prejudice, like all true fans. I didn’t trust his beady Atlanta Braves’ eyes. He took the mound in a win and get in game and gave up seven runs in one damn inning. Glavine immediately became my least favorite athlete of all time, soaring past Jeter instantly.

But the game gets worse. In the bottom of the first, the Mets loading the bases and scored a run. Ramon Castro puts a drive in the ball and raises his hands. He got all of it. I stand and cheer, only to see it barely got 300 feet. Who the Hell celebrates that? Obviously, you know what happens from there.

– 2008 – The same thing happens, but instead of just losing, the Mets close out Shea Stadium by losing a near guaranteed playoff birth. After the game, the team celebrates Mets history. Are you frigging kidding me?

– The creation of the second wild card game. Why? Because if it existed on 2006, the Mets would have clinched spots in early September and probably won the one game.

– The Bernie Madoff Scandal, causing the Mets to not spend money for the better part of the decade despite playing in New York, owning their own TV network, and racking in money from damn ass fans like me.

– Carlos Delgado actively not trying in order to get Willie Randolph fired.

-The Mets firing Willie Randolph after dancing around the move for months at the end of a road trip… ON FATHER’S DAY.

– Delgado immediately being awesome for a month after Randolph Firing. What a twist!

– Jose Reyes removing himself out of the last game of the season after a bunt single to ensure he won the batting title. This was nearly his last Mets moment because….

– The Mets offering an insulting 5 year $40 million contract to one of their team’s all time great players in a terrible attempt to save face.

– Bringing back Jose Reyes after he starting to clearly decline and was involved in a domestic violence dispute that he’s almost certainly guilty of.

-The entirety of Jason Bay’s contract.

– The original Trade for Jay Bruce which blocked Michael Conforto from playing. Bruce went on and did not record a hit for two months before proving himself to be a good player in 2017.

– The unfair amount of injuries to David Wright, one of the few Mets who remained likeable through the 2000s.

-Matt Harvey’s “forgetting to pee incident” which was definitely about a severe hangover, or an STD.

– All of Matt Harvey’s injuries that took away his potential to be the next Tom Seaver. Instead, he’s this generation’s Doc Gooden.

-Going to a Mets game in 2017 expecting to see Harvey, only to find out the team suspended him for not showing up because he was mopey his hook up didn’t want to sleep with him. Instead, I watched something called a Wilk give up a 900 foot home run to Giancarlo Stanton right above my head.

-Matt Harvey in general.

-The stupid second Wild Card because even when we get it, we have to face Bumgarner. How do you play 162 games and then have a one game playoff?

-Of course, the 2015 World Series. If we played anyone who was not the Royals, we’d have won. Also, the Mets blew four leads in the 8^th inning or later, so year, that’s good.

-And finally, every July first, when the dumbass Wilpons pay Bobby Bonilla $1.19 million in their idiotic way to avoid paying him $5 million for one season. This year, he will make more money than Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario and Brandon Nimmo. He will also contribute more than Adrian Gonzales.

Needless to say, it’s been a painful road. But you know what? 2018 could be better. It also could be a nightmare.

Rather than let it play out, I’ve decided to give you, the readers a full preview of the 2018 New York Baseball Mets. We’ll look at the hitters today, and the Pitchers tomorrow. Today’s preview will break down each position, and project the stats for our players. It won’t feature every player who will wear a uniform this year, but it’ll be damn close. Withiut further ado and pain to my heart, let’s begin.

 

Catcher

AKA the shit sandwich. And not just a sandwich where the filling is shit. In this case, the bread is too. It’s just a giant, disgusting pile of shit we’re suppose to just shovel down our gullet and enjoy. Fantastic. No really, I’m so glad I get to see the same two catchers back again. At least with the projection of them splitting duties, I can’t get blindly angry at one of them for too long. I I like to be able to split my rage.

You’d like to have some offense from your catcher position, but in today’s game, what you really hope for is a defensive ace. This doesn’t just refer to passed balls and covering the plate, but pitch framing and calling a game. The Mets will go as far as the pitching staff takes them, and the catchers are importing to this. Good thing defense is not their strong suit. I mean, they aren’t even good at showing up. What the hell do they have going for them?

Both Mets catchers were former top 100 prospects, though at this point, I’d argue they are top 100 players in the organization. I’d take a Thor or deGrom at bat any day over these two. You know how some managers who think they’re smarter than everyone else (Joe Maddon) and bat the pitcher 8^th to create more RBI opportunities for their lead off hitters? See, if the Mets bat their pitchers before the catcher, they do so because it gives them a better chance to score. That’s not a good sign for anyone.

Travis d’Arnard – For a while, d’Arnard actually looked like the prize piece in the R.A. Dickey deal, a trade that contained Noah Syndergard. Now, that’s laughable, but for a time, Thor couldn’t stay healthy and had some attitude problems. d’Arnard has flashed some talent over the years, but is more brittle than kindling. He’s always hurt and the promise with the bat doesn’t seem there anymore. d’Arnaud’s tantalizing .268/.340/.485 line in 2015 (in only 67 games), seems like a distant memory. He’s probably league average offensively, which is nice, but not anywhere near the level he could have obtained.

In addition to the injuries, d’Arnaud cannot throw out base stealers. This is significant because the Mets aces struggle against the running game. This could be partly on the staff, but being able to gun down runners is important. Teams with speed will run on the Mets, and that includes the Nationals and Braves, the current best team in the division, and the future class of it. Unless he hits, these defensive liability might make him the #2 catcher quickly. He’s lost time to the likes of Rene Rivera in the past.

To his credit, d’Arnaud had a  big spring, so at least he has that. He deserves the #1 gig to start, but if he stumbles, Plawecki should get additional time.

Best Case – Bucking the trend, d’Arnaud avoids his annual injury and appears in 120 games for the first time. He sets career high in nearly every category, mostly due to staying healthy, and throws out a respectable amount of runners. He’s not the prospect we dreamed of, but he’s close to the 2015 version.

Worst Case – In another injury plagued season, d’Arnaud loses the starting job when healthy, becoming a part time player. He’s released in the off season.

Projection – 300 ABs, 14HRs, 40RBIs, 35R, 0SBs, .250/.305/.420

Kevin Plawecki – A true disappointment since being called up in 2015, Plawecki offers nearly 0 power from a position built to hit jacks and nothing else. This would be all well and good if he wasn’t a career .222 hitter in the majors. The plus is his defense is significantly better than d’Arnaud, though it’s not a high bar to climb.

Working in Plawecki’s favor is his solid end to 2017, where he hit .260. He also can take a walk, which is useful. I don’t expect great things, but I don’t wince when I see him in the lineup. This might be partly from my disappointment with d’Arnaud though.

Best Case – Plawecki continues his torrid improvement, becoming a slightly below average offensive player. He takes over the starting gig and runs with it.

Worst Case – Plawecki’s improvements in 2017 were a fluke. He struggles to hit .200 and plays twice a week when he’s lucky.

Projection – 275 Abs, 4HRs, 20 RBIs, 15Runs, 0SB, .230/.330/.350

First Base

This position is another dead zone for the Mets. Typically one of the best offensive positions on a team, most MLB organizations hide one of their true mashers here*, whie they club their way to a big contract and hide their weak glove. The Mets don’t have this luxury. While all of their gloves at the position are weak, their options are either has beens, or never weres. I’m feeling great about this roster.

The Mets wanted Dominic Smith to be the starter in 2018, but his debut in 2017 was so poor, they were concerned. Then, his injury in spring training didn’t help. Smith will almost definitely spend some time in the minors before getting another crack this season, and the feelings on him are an all-time low. He was a pretty big prospect, but his poor approach at the place, and quite honestly, poor frame, doesn’t help matters. He’ll need to have some gaudy minor leagues totals to get called up quick.

In a perfect world, Jay Bruce would actually be the first baseman. This would allow for their best defensive ailment and probably there best offensive one too. Bruce’s first base capabilities aren’t ideal, but I mean, neither are the others. At least he can mash similarly to the typical player at the position.  We’ll see what happens, but don’t be surprised to see Bruce with the most reps at firstthis year.

Adrian Gonzales – In the Mets had pulled this move off in 2014, I would be doing cartwheels. Instead, the Mets bring in a broken husk of a former superstar, though on a veterans minimum contract. I don’t hate the play, especially on the off chance that he’s closer to his old self than it seems. Never a true monster power hitter, Gonzales in his prime was a man who could hit to all fields, and total 35 homers in the process. Now, it seems like the power and the average are gone.

As recently as 2016, Gonzales was able to hit .285, which would be great for the Mets. The problem was, even that season, he flashed no power. That .285 average came with only 49 extra base hits in 633 plate appearances. For a first baseman, that’s not good. He’s never really been much of a defensive player so there’s really not a lot to hope for here. Last year, his WAR was -1.9. That means the league average, replacement player was worth two more victories than playing Gonzale was. To say I’m not inspired would be like saying fire is hot.

Best Case – Gonzales stays healthy and contributes his 2016 line until Dominic Smith proves himself. Or maybe Gonzales gracefully retires after April. Yeah, there’s not a lot of hope.

Worse Case – The Mets continue to truck out Gonzales despite the fact he couldn’t connect his bat to the ground. He plays 150 games with a batting average lower than deGrom.

Projection – in 250 At Bats, 6HRs, 30 RBIs, 25R, 0SB, .225/.270/.340     Yeah, I don’t have any faith.

Dominic Smith – I’d like to focus on the promising side of Smith first before we get to the bashing. Smith is a lifetime .300 hiter in the minors, always being significantly younger than his competition. While he’s power was never elite, you could project 20 home runs and the high average. This would be ok, if not a bit power deficient. Smith was a slick fielding first baseman, which is a plus. Smith managed to hit .330 and slugging admirably in Triple A last season before his call up.

Now for the bad side. In his first major league season, Smith only hit .198, which is abysmal, especially for a player with a history for good averages. He struck out 49 times in 183 plate appearances, which is alarming and completely out of character. He looked lumbering in the field and I think he sold out for power. He hit nine homers in his 49 games, which would have put him on pace for around 30, well above his standard pace.

Is there hope for Smith? Of course, though the organization has clearly soured on him. It doesn’t help that he got injured in spring training and only has one at bat. It’s going to take a hot start to get back in the team’s good graces. I think for the team’s long term future, Smith needs to seize the starting job this year. As it stands, he might get the call in June.

Best Case – Smith crushes minor league pitching and when he gets to call to the majors, he delivers on his promise. Smith hits around .280, and while the power isn’t elite, he cements himself into the role for 2019, with all arrows pointing up.

Worst Case – Smith toils in the minors on an injury riddled season. He barely hits his weight, which continues to rise, and doesn’t get called up until September.

Projection – in 300 At Bats – 9HRs, 45RBIs, 30R, 0SB, .265/.320/.425 – I have some optimism he can still turn it around.

Second Base

Here’s another example of where the Mets manage to get things wrong. Despite having an in house answer at the position, the Mets re-signed Asdrubal Cabrera. You may remember Cabrera making a stink about getting moved off of Shortstop and demanding a trade last season. He was a clubhouse cancer but we brought him back, likely because no other team could possible want him.

The internal answer is Wilmer Flores, who’s not only a better hitter than Cabrera, he might be a better fielder at this point. Flores will never win a gold glove, but it’s not like Cabrera’s wining the honor. He barely could cover anything, and that’s why he got moved off of short in the first place. The Mets are hesitant to give Flores an everyday job, which remains baffling. He couldn’t handle playing short every day, but he can handle second. This seems like a mistake I hope gets rectified.

The Mets also have Gavin Cecchini who they hope will take the job in the future. Cecchini’s ceiling isn’t all that high, and he strikes me more as a utility guy. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t anticipate him making a huge impact this season.

 

Asdrubal Cabrera – By the numbers, Cabrera was perfectly adequate last year. He hit .280 for the second year in a row, and all of his counting stats were fine. The issue is the decline in his range. Cabrera was a decent shortstop, but now can’t cover any ground. He’ll have to play either 2^nd or 3^rd this year. He’ll be a capable player and hitter, but the upside for other hitters are higher. I’d rather see him in a reduced role. Hell, Jose Reyes gives me more hope than Cabrera does.

Best Case – Cabrera mirrors his 2017, hitting for a solid average at the top of the order, and not being an automatic out. He makes the plays he can on defense, and slowly gets phased out for Flores and Cecchini.

Worse Case – Cabrera plays second base every day, and his numbers begin to slip. His fielding grows even worse and while the team has options, they feel committed to playing Cabrera anyway.

Projection 450 At Bats – 15HRs, 60RBIs, 65R, 5SB, .275/.335/.430

Wilmer Flores – Flores has the reputation as a lefty masher, which is definitely true, but he’s more than that. I think the label has hurt his growth under Terry Collins. While he should never sit against lefties, I don’t think he should be labeled useless against righties. He can handle pitchers of either handedness.

The Mets plan on using Flores as their super sub, and I think that’s better than nothing. Mickey Callaway seems to get what Met fans know – Flores needs to get regular at bats. The only time he really saw every day playing time is when the team tried to make him the everyday shortstop which he was not suited for. Since then, he a semi-permanent, semi part time role, Flores has consistent hit around .260-.270, providing plus power at the position, and his fielding is much better than before.

Flores’ versatility will help him get on the field as he can play every position in the infield, and learned some outfield in the spring as well. I can see Flores playing 5-6 times a week, which would be in the best interest of the team. With enough at bats, Flores should hit 20+ home runs which would be a huge boon for the organization. Fingers crossed he actually gets them this time.

Best Case – The team gives Flores Cabrera’s job and he runs with it, hitting 25 homers awhile keeping his slash line in order. He feels comfortable at second and becomes the long term answer for the team.

Worst Case – The shuffling of positions gets in Flores’ head, and he doesn’t hit well in his role.

Projection – in 450 At Bats – 22HRs, 60RBIs, 55R, 2SB, .265/.305/.450

Gavin Cecchini – I don’t have much hope for Cecchini honesty. He cracked the top 100 prospect lists and he’s definitely the Mets best remaining prospect now that Rosario and Smith have been called up, but there’s not much here. He’s a light hitting, good fielding middle infielder. He’ll probably hit .260 like Flores, but not have any power upside. Sure, there’s something to be said for a glove, but there’s also something to be said for when everyone ahead on the depth charts is a better hitter. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see it.

Best Case – Cecchini matches his minor league history on his call up, hitting around .280 while playing stellar second base. He also covers shortstop on Rosario’s off days.

Worst Case – Cecchini is a September call up who’s performance gives call backs to Smith’s 2017. He barely hits .200, and let’s his offensive woes carry over to the field, committing 5 errors in the month. There are questions on his standing in the organiation for 2019.

Projection – In 150 At Bats – 2 HRs, 15 RBIS, 10R, 3 SB, .260/.330/.360

Shortstop

The past and the future hit the Mets last season as the former best shortstop in franchise history, Jose Reyes, became a mentor to who should, hopefully, man the diamond for the next decade – Amed Rosario. Let’s hope Reyes stuck to baseball mentoring, and not how to handle life at home.

It was certainly a mixed bag for the position last year, as there were plenty of signs for hope, and a few terrible bust signs to be concerns about. One of the pluses about the Mets is that have four guys on the active roster who can cover SS in a pinch. However, Rosario is the only one who has even passable range at this point in his career. Reyes, the only one I’d trust as a backup, still has legs, but is a far cry from the speed demon he was. Cabrera can only field balls hit directly at him. Flores is not a short stop by trade, and might as well have a stone block for a glove.

So yeah, depth wise, we’re in great shape. Talent wise, we need a lot of growth in a hurry.

Amed Rosario – Your opinion on Rosario depends at what statistics you look at. For a 21 year old debuting in the major leagues ahead of his original schedule, there’s plenty to be impressed about. In his 170 plate appearances, he managed 12 extra base hits (four each of doubles, triples and home runs). He also flashed his elite speed, stealing seven bases, while being caught three times. He didn’t really seem over matched and he’s definitely a major league player. That sounds like a low bar, but a ton of top prospects struggle in their first appearance in the big leagues.

This doesn’t mean that Rosario was perfect, by any stretch. In those 170 plate appearances, he amassed a 49 to 3 Strikeout to Walk ratio. A couple of things here. Striking out 49 times in 170 chances is awful. Absolutely awful.  Yet it’s still not nearly as bad as his walk rate. Someone needs to inform Rosario that he doesn’t have to swing at every pitch. This let to a .271 On Base Percentage, which would have been one of, if not the lowest in baseball had he accumulated enough at bats. Rosario is projected to be a lead off hitter. Lead off hitters get on base. Rosario did not. It’s a huge concern for his future.

Another issue was Rosario’s defense. It could have been nerves but, Rosario didn’t seem like the world class glove he was touted to be. A lot of his plays were jittery, and he made six errors in his 45 games. That’s not the worst number, but I honestly wasn’t wowed by his performance. I’m confident this will improve, but if there’s additional struggles, I’ll start waving the worry flag.

What I want to see from Rosario more than anything is a more refined approach at the plate. Take a few pitches, foul some balls off and show discipline. With his speed, pounding the ball in the dirt isn’t a bad thing. He’ll have an inflated average by beating out grounders, so I don’t worry too much about the on base percentage, but it must increase to get him out of the 8^th/9^th hole. The glove should prevent him from ever being labeled a bust, but his discipline could prevent him from being a perennial All Star.

Best Case – Rosario learns how to take a walk, raising his OBP to the .330 range. The team hits Rosario lead off, and he responds, hitting 15 homers, stealing 30 bases, and coming close to winning the gold glove.

Worst Case – Rosario hacks away at everything. Pitchers don’t bother throwing anything in the zone, and Rosario puts up an astonishing 40% K rate. He is sent to the minors in June to clear his head, but the damage is done. 2018 in a lost season.

Projection – in 550 At Bats – 15 Hrs, 60 RBIs, 60R, 20SB, .270/.310/.410 – I’m assuming he stays at the bottom of the lineup for a while. If he moves up to 1 or 2, his runs should skyrocket while his RBIs are nonexistent.

Jose Reyes – The player who Rosario most reminds me of is the young Reyes, who shows blazing speed, a cannon for an arm, but absolutely no plate discipline. His game never really evolved, and while he certainly had some electric seasons, including winning a batting title and stealing 78 bases back in 2007, he could have been more. While the steal totals are definitely down, there’s still some juice left – Reyes stole 24 bases last season in an everyday role. He has decent power for a short stop, but doesn’t get on base enough to be a lead off hitter. Not that he ever did. But now, the threat of hitting .330 is gone and his on base skills were always subpar. For now, Reyes serves best as a backup to SS, 2B, and 3B, though he shouldn’t play over Flores at any of those positions.

Best Case – In his Complementary role, Reyes thrives, still chipping him a bunch of steals and extra base hits while playing solid defense. He’s a mentor to the younger Mets, and helps Rosario’s development into a star.

Worst Case – Due to struggles of the other Mets, Reyes is thrust into a near everyday role. He fails to crack .260 while struggling to cover short stop with any consistency.

Projection – In 250 At Bats – 8 HRs, 25 RBIs, 30R, 10SBs, .260/.310/.420

Third Base

What could have been? Mike Moustakas, once again part of the disgusting, offensive Kansas City Royals organization, sat in free agency for months. Originally declining a qualifying offer that would have made him roughly $15 million, Moose wanted to test the free agency waters. And after hitting 38 homers in 2017, who could blame him? He find absolutely zero interest in any team, and had to sign back with the Royals for less than $7 million. He somehow negotiated himself an eight million dollar pay cut. I can safely say if this were me, my agency would be meeting for a few members of the Sopranos to learn how to treat clients right.

I bring this up because Todd Frazier, the Mets new starting third baseman is earning $8.5 million over the next two seasons. While Frazier provides more defense (A lot more defense to be fair), he is not the hitter Moustakas has been over his past two healthy seasons. Was the first round pick enough to dissuade the Mets into signing Moose? Perhaps, but this is a team is secret win now mode. Their window closes completely in two seasons. Maybe losing the first round pick doesn’t matter. After all, if they end up out of the playoff picture over the next two seasons, they’ll be trading for prospects anyway.

I was furious when I heard the Moustakas signing, but I’d come to terms with it. Frazier has his flaws, but he should be a decent player for the Mets. Besides, his elite clubhouse presence must be worth a few Wins Above Replacement, right?

Ok, ok, I’m still mad. Go figure.

 

Todd Frazier – This whole year, I’m going to compare Frazier’s stats to Moustakas. In fact, part of the reason I drafted Moustakas in fantasy is so I don’t get too irrationally angry every time he hits a home run. I always do think about my well-being first.

To his credit, Fraizer does have a strong glove. In theory, the Mets left side of the infield should gobble up balls like the Hungry Hungry Hippos. He also has a lot of power. Hitting for at least 27 home runs in the past four seasons, including a 40 homer year in 2016, and a 35 campaign in 2015. He’s also shown good on base skills in the past few seasons, especially in 2017, where he flashed a walk rate over 10%. He also has an underrated running game, stealing around 10-15 bases a game

There’s a huge but coming.

BUT, Frazier’s done on this while completely selling out for power. Home runs are great, sure, but not at the cost of any threat of a decent average. Since his 2015 season, Frazier has hit a brutal .225 and then a .213. That’s a flaccid bat. He was in the .255-.270 range while in Cincinnati, though his walk rate wasn’t in line where it is now. It seems this is what he’s evolved into. If he walks at a high rate, it’s not the worst thing, but I like my hitters to have a threat for an average as well as walking. All or nothing hitters need to hit for around 35 homers. If Frazier is only going to give 27, this approaches does not work and weakens his overall value to the team.

Best Case – Frazier finds the balance of power and average and re-creates his 2015 season. He hits 35 homers, bats around .255, and walks at the 10% clip, becoming a borderline all star in the process.

Worst Case – Frazier’s average bottoms out to below .200. He hits 30 homers, but at the expense of everything else. He loses a step in the field, and even his glove doesn’t play up to the reputation. Mike Moustakas hits 42 homeruns and finishes in the top 10 of the MVP race.

Projection – In 600 At Bats – 33HRs, 85RBIS, 80R, 10SBs, .240/.345/.470. – What can I say? I’m an optimist.

David Wright – This is exceedingly mean to mention. Did Wright’s name get submitted by a Yankee fan?

Oh, you were serious?

It’s a tragedy. Wright’s career has been decimated by injury and there’s really no coming back. It takes him hours to feel healthy enough just to field ground balls. For his health, he should retire and take a cushy front office job. At least I know he’d care. I’m sure he’d do a hell of a lot better in the front office than Jeter has done. Plus, we could market his face everywhere and increase the female fan base. Who wouldn’t want that.

Never forget how good of player David Wright was. He should have won the 2017 MVP. He only didn’t because of… reasons. Despite all of the injuries, he’s still a career .296 hitter, has an impressive .376 on base percentage, and even has a 30-30 season on his resume. He leads the Mets in every relevant offensive category that Jose Reyes does not and he should have won at least one World Series.

What I’ll remember most about him was when he came back in 2015 after a four month absence. In his first at bat, he hammered a pitch over the wall. It was the hardest ball he’s ever hit in his career. It might have been the hardest ball ever hit by a Met honestly. It was then I thought the Mets had a chance to make the playoffs. And they almost won the World Series. That’s the last season Wright was able to play relatively healthy. I respect the attempt at coming back. Truly I do. But David, don’t hurt yourself. You’ve given the Mets enough. It’s not fair, and it’s not right, but retiring is the safest thing you can do.

Best Case – Wright is able to return in a part time role by mid season. He plays a partial role as a 1B playing lefty masher, and crushes them to his career norms.

Or – Wright decides to retire and has his number retired on opening day of 2019.

Worst Case – The comeback suffers additional complications, and Wright has to retire not under his own terms, but do to medical recommendations. I don’t want to see that.

Projections – No games played. God that’s a depressing sentence.

Outfield

The Mets biggest offensive threat is their outfield, where their three most dangerous hitters all play. Offensively, their three main everyday option should all hit 30 homers if healthy, hit from anywhere from a great to passable average, and all possess on base skills. This is the first area where the team has a complete advantage over the average team. Well, at least offensively.

Defensively, the team could be a mess with Michael Conforto in center field. It’s not that Conforto is incapable. He’s just a corner outfielder forced to play out of position. They don’t have any true speed out there, which is a problem. Though they do possess two cannons for arms, which doesn’t hurt. The Mets do have all world Center Fielder Juan Lagares, but he’s only a defensive option as his hitter against righties is unbearable.

Brandon Nimmo could provide the Mets a more interest option that improves the entire team. Nimmo can play center adequately, but also possesses elite on base skills. This could give them the lead off hitter the team desperately needs. If Nimmo cannot succeed at the major league level, the Mets will need to bat Conforto lead off, ruining his 30 home runs by having him drive in somewhere between 45, and 50 runs. That would be a tragedy.

Left Field

Yoenis Cespedes – those who claim that Cespedes isn’t a superstar after 2017 are wrong. Feel free to delete them on social media or smack them in person. Either option is perfectly reasonable.

Cespedes’ only issue last year was health, which granted was his own fault. He bulked up to Hulkian levels and then couldn’t keep his hamstrings attached to where they should be. After constant ham string pulls, he played in 81 games. Here was his line in half a season – 17HRs, 42RBIs 46Runs with a .292/.352/.540 slash line. I mean, that’s elite. If you double it, other than being a little light on RBIs, that’s an excellent year. So again, don’t listen to the take that Cespy is overrated – he’s just health adverse.

Fortunately, he’s made some changes in the off season. Cespedes has put down his golf clubs, vowing not to play during the season. He’s also picked up a yoga mat, opting for flexibility instead of massive bulk. This should not only help his longevity but also avoid the day to day nagging. All that he needs is to stay on the field to be an all star.

Of course, spring training was a mixed bag for Cespedes, who suffered from both shoulder fatigue and wrist soreness. Fortunately, the injures haven’t slowed down his bat, hitting 5 homeruns in 35 plate appearances and slugging over .800. You want to see your superstars dominant the weaker competition and Cespedes does it in spades.

Defensively, he is an overqualified left fielder. He possesses the strongest arm in the league, able to gun down any runners from all angels of the field. Truly, he does himself a disservice by not playing right field. The position was built for his talents. Alas, he’ll just be the best defensive left fielder in the game for now.

Best Case – Having his first fully healthy season since 2015, Cespedes plays in 150 games, mashes to his career rates and regains his unquestioned All Star Status.

Worst Case – The hamstrings betray him yet again, and Cespdes struggles to get to 300 at bats. His producing when healthy, but health is more or less a myth at this point.

Projection – In 525 Abs – 32HRs, 90RBIs, 85Runs, 5SB, .285/.345/.545

Center Field

Michel Conforto – This was going to be such a depressing paragraph a few weeks ago. Conforto was still on the mend from a devastating shoulder injury, where historically, power does not return. Not only did it appear Conforto wouldn’t return until May or even June, he wouldn’t be effective anymore. It was going to be yet another what if story from the Mets.

Fortunately this story might have a positive ending. Conforto appears to be ahead of schedule and he has ripped the ball in spring training. He won’t break camp on the active roster, but it’s looking more and more likely that he’ll only miss the first few weeks of the season. If he’s back to his old self as soon as mid April, the Mets’ offense looks to be in much better shape.

Last season Conforto made strides in his power, approach and average. His one real weakness is dealing with left handed pitching, but even that seems to be under control. He has a track record of hitting Lefties in the minors, so as long as the Mets don’t bench him (and they really don’t have the option anymore), he should be able to figure this out. Conforto will likely bat at the top of the lineup – I’d want him 2^nd, but he might go lead off. This will hurt his counting stats, but considering his OBP, it makes sense.

The biggest worry I have with Conforto is that he’s rushing back. His spring training results doesn’t make it seem this way, but still, I worry with the Mets’ history. I think that’s fair.

The other worry I have is Conforto playing center. Foot speed is not his greatest strength. Center fielders need to cover a ton of ground, and I’m not sold Conforto can play a plus center. His bat will even things out, and the strikeout potential of the staff will help, but it won’t be a plus defensive outfield to say the least.

Best Case – Conforto continues his ascent, becoming the Mets’ best hitter and makes his second All Star game. He sets career bests in all stats.

Worst Case – Conforto’s shoulder is not fully healed and he lumbers through as more of a slap hitter. Still somewhat productive, he only plays 10 games and fails to reach 15 home runs.

Projection – in 575 At Bats – 30HRs, 90RBIs, 90R, 0SB, .270/.360/.520

Brandon Nimmo – Here’s where the Mets offense could have a new dimension. Nimmo was rumored to be part of a package for Josh Harrison or Andrew McCuctchen, so hopefully the team is right. Nimmo’s main skill is his On Base Percentage. He has a career .383 OBP, a borderline elite figure. It has translated to a .367 rate in the majors, so the skill is legit. Nimmo is not a power or speed guy, but if he gets on base for the big bats behind him, he’s doing his job.

The biggest issue is playing time. Nimmo would be perfect to patrol center field, but it’s difficult to fit him, Cespedes, Conforto, and Bruce all in the outfield. Ideally, this is why Bruce would take over first. It opens to lead off spot for Nimmo, lets Cespedes and Conforto bat slightly lower in the order, and should lead to the most runs. This depends on how well Nimmo plays and if the Mets brass is smart enough to figure it out. I’m not holding my breath.

Best Case – Nimmo takes his two week trial period and runs with the job, getting on base at an elite clip. The Mets can’t possibly bench him and throw out their optimal lineup nightly.

Worst Case – Nimmo can’t get on base as much as the Mets hoped and struggles manning a major league center field. He tolls as the team’s 5^th Outfielder.

Projections – 450 At Bats – 5HRs, 45 RBIs, 90Runs, 5SBs, .270/.370/.390

Juan Lagares – Lagares always seemed like he was a few good games away from being an every day center fielder. He just never learned how to handle right handed pitching, which is a huge hindrance. He does crush lefties though, so a platoon between him and Nimmo makes a lot of sense.

It’s not all bad for Lagares, who is one of the best defensive players in baseball. Lagares patrols centerfield was the grace of a gazelle. Although that might be compared to the lumbering oafs around him. He will have a place on the team as a defensive replacement late. He probably won’t stay healthy long enough to exploit this though. Lagares has been wasting away on the disabled list for years now, and it would be shocking in 2018 was any different. Still, it’s a treat to watch him take away extra base hits regularly.

Best Case – Lagares stays healthy for a full season and forms a good platoon with Nimmo. He plays the last few innings of every game, cutting off doubles and robbing homers.

Worst Case – Lagares doesn’t hit at all, making it hard to justify his roster spot on a defensive only replacement. He concedes even the lefty at bats to Nimmo and becomes a forgotten man.

Projection – in 200 At Bats – 4HRs, 20RBIs, 25R, 7SB .250/.290/.370

Right Field

Jay Bruce – Bruce’s contract, a 3 year $39 million might be a fair value, until you realize Bruce is only going to turn 31 at the start of the season. Bruce has been around forever, but at least you know what you’re getting from him. He’s good for 30 home runs and 100 RBIss, and while he only hit’s about .260, he gets on base enough to deal with the iffy average.

Bruce’s willingness to play first could be huge, which would be a big deal for the team. I’ve said it like seventeen times already, but he should be the starting first baseman. This is partly because his outfield defense is poor. They do not need to handicap what they have out their even more. At first base, Bruce’s power will certainly play, and he should be able to handle the defensive requirements.

For the record, my previous knocks on Bruce was for blocking Conforto. Since that’s no longer a possibility, you won’t hear any Booce references from me. Unless he’s frigging terrible this year somehow. Then that’s all you’re hear.

There’s not a lot of upside here, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Best Case – Bruce does what Bruce does – hits his 30+ homers and drives in 100. He’s a consistent source of power in the middle of the lineup.

Worst Case – Bruce’s average falls off a cliff and he presses after a bad start. He cannot handle first base after all, and struggles to get to his career norms.

Projections – In 600 At Bats – 34HRs, 105 RBIS, 75R, 0SB .255/.320/.500