TE Positional Preview Or Gotta Collect Them All

One of my biggest weaknesses as a human being is being a collector. I don’t go around and get involved in every craze, but when I do, I’m usually fully invested. To me, collecting is most of the fun. I tend to use interest the second I finish off a collection. Right now, my most time-consuming hobby, other than writing these behemoths, is playing MLB the Show 19, which has a card collecting feature. Collect all the current players, and you’re rewarded with Prime Willie Mays. That’s been my goal since I got the game in April. Now, I’m Mookie Betts and Mike Trout away from getting Mays, plus Ken Griffey Jr was released yesterday. We really need to speed this along so I can go back to playing.

Part of the reason the Show appeals to me so much is the card collecting reminds me of collecting trading cards when I was a kid. It was mainly baseball, but I would collect basketball cards too. That was a true weakness. I couldn’t get enough of packs, including the horrific, teeth breaking gum that was included. Boy, I could show you so many chips and cracks in my baby teeth. Almost every time I went to the store with my father, he’d get me a pack at the checkout line. Anytime I got a Met it was exciting… until I looked at the numbers on the back of the card and didn’t understand why the stats were so bad. I vividly remember getting a Darryl Strawberry card, when he was on the Dodgers, and being mad that he was no longer a Met. Some things never change.

I had binders full of these things, separated by teams. In fact, it looked a lot like the Show, so if you’ve played that, that’s pretty much my childhood. I used the cards in a few games – we had a baseball board game where dice rolling determine success. Yes, the cards were just decoration, but it was still fun building lineups. It was also bonding time with my father, who definitely hated having to buy cards every time I went to the store, and then deal with me complaining about my teeth hurting from the gum.

Not all baseball cards are created equal. As a kid, I expected to strike it rich with some of the rarer cards. I kept any rookie cards, all-star cards, or any cards with special designs out of the binder and in my top dresser drawer. I had a bunch of cards I thought would be worth something. There were several Griffey all-star cards, a few Michael Jordan’s (including a peculiar retirement card that I don’t understand how I acquired) and one of my prized gems, a rookie Butch Husky card I figured would be worth a ton.

Looking back, the name Butch Husky should have told me he wouldn’t pan out.

There were others too – Ripken’s, Gwynn’s, Bonds, and even a Karl Malone. I pretty much had a card for all the big names and figured eventually I’d rake in some dough. I was so into cards that an Uncle gave me a complete set of 1984 cards, saying they were worth $1,000. Not only did I not sell those cards, they were ruined in Hurricane Sandy. I’m not sure who were the rookies then, but I can tell you this, I’m afraid to look it up. My personal collection remained safe, and they remain on the dresser today. Do you know why?

Because every single kid who grow up in the 90s has the same exact cards saved at the top of their dresser. Unless you’re walking around with a Honus Wagner card, you won’t make a dime off these things. The price of cards aren’t static – it’s based on the buyer’s willingness to pay. Nobody with their head screwed on straight is willing to pay. This is the collector’s fallacy. The collector believes his interests are popular and other people will want to join them. In truth, everybody’s interests are stupid and nobody cares. This isn’t exclusive to baseball cards, not by a long shot. All those Beanie Baby collections didn’t turn anyone into millionaires, now did they? Neither did the people collecting Pokémon cards.

For the record, my Pokémon Cards were right next to the 1984 set. Charizard went to the big trash compactor in the sky. Also, into the literal track compactor.

You aren’t going to make it rich being a collector. It’s quite the opposite when you’re buying packs of cards, bidding for a specific one on eBay, or searching the shelves for the rare Beanie Baby (My favorite was the penguin). But if you know that you aren’t going to make it rich, and enjoy what you’re doing, there’s no harm in it. Unfortunately, fantasy football has a collection addiction that can be harmful. That is a crippling addiction to collecting TEs early.

What are you people doing? Have you learned nothing over the years? Why do I have to write this warning every single year? Drafters cannot resist the allure of the TE. And with all but 5 TE failing to reach even the 3rd option on most Sundays, who could blame them? Everyone with a shred of common sense, that’s who. People draft TEs like they’ve found that elusive Honus Wagner card. Instead, they wind up with a full pack of Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia and Jay Bruce cards. Please, if you need a minute to throw up upon reading those names, I understand. It took me eight weeks to get through this paragraph without feeling queasy.

The TE position is a lot like card collecting. You have a few, rare TEs that are the focal point of the offense. They’re worth their weight in gold, but you have to pay a steep cost for them. Not only do they cost a high pick, you weaken your RBs and WRs, where you really need to be strong to compete.

Then, the next, oh I don’t know, 35 TEs are all basically the same: rarely targeted, often overlooked, and completely TD dependent. This is like your Ken Griffey Jr. All Star Card. Every single person has one, but everyone believes theirs is the most valuable and rare thing in the world. That’s the only reason I can see Jared Cook going before the 14th round.

Look, I get it. I know I always pretend I don’t, but deep down, I do. You want to find that diamond in the rough. Having a good TE is a big advantage as most people are throwing out retreads that dream of scoring 6.6 points in a game (Yes that is a 1 yard TD in .5 PPR leagues). But in the 6^th round, where that TE train begins, you can still get the #1 WR on teams. You can get starting RBS. Heck, you might get Aaron Rodgers. Or you can take a bumbling, 50 catch, 500 yard, 6 TD scoring TE that wouldn’t move the needle in a 30 team league.

So yeah, my advice, as it always is, is to wait on TE, except for Kelce. Kelce is in the Gronk tier, except Kelce doesn’t have quite as many injuries as Gronk did. I can see him as a late first round pick. You could argue he’d be the 4th or 5th receiver off the board, so why not take the positional advantage if it’s close? Ertz and Kittle are significantly better than the other TEs, but they are more 3rd round picks. Ertz is the main piece in a loaded offense and Kittle has more options around him than you’d think. Both are good plays at that price though. I like the second tier of TEs, but they will probably go too high for me to jump in. After that, you’re just hoping somebody wants your Jay Bruce card. Spoiler alert, they don’t.

When picking from the remaining heap, always choose involvement over chasing TDs. People will draft Eric Ebron early this year, but odds are he won’t repeat his 2018. Heck, I don’t think he’s the best TE on the team.  At least with yardage plays, you know they have some involvement and aren’t a non-factor when they don’t score. If you happen to back your way into a TD dependent TE, don’t fret. That’s the same as 8 other players. Just hope the rest of your team can survive a 2 point effort. You’ll get a lot of them.

Actually Good TE Tier

• Travis Kelce
• George Kittle
• Zach Ertz

There’s no question that Travis Kelce is the best TE for fantasy. Anyone who doesn’t list Kelce at the top of their TE list is either calling their shot, or trying to get attention, much like a 3 year old crying crocodile tears. Don’t fall for those fake tears, readers, and take Kelce without hesitation. The real question is how high do you draft him. I think anytime in the back end of the first round is ok. He’s basically a WR, and the edge you receive over other players who are starting the dregs of the position is huge. Plus, you can make up for your RB and WR by hammering both for the next 8-9 rounds, at least. I’m probably going to be playing the dregs of course, but don’t be afraid to go TE early this one time. This isn’t a Gronk situation where you knew he’d miss like half the season – Kelce shows up to games and doesn’t have an odd boat cruise in his name (that we know of). The crazy thing is he might be the 4th highest scorer on the team and still be worthy of a pick at the turn. Good for you, Andy Reid. Maybe you can trade in for a stop watch with all those fantasy points.

Here’s the funny thing with Kittle – his best production came without Jimmy Garoppolo. I’m not saying he was awful with Jimmy G or anything, but he seemed to step into high gear when other QBs went behind center. He’ll be plenty targeted, but remember how Garoppolo used Goodwin when he took over in 2017. And consider Dante Pettis, free falling player he may be, was hyped a lot in the offseason. Kittle should get plenty of run, but I don’t think he’s reaching his 2018 heights again. There’s other weapons the team wants to use. Kyle Shanahan’s system uses the TE, but never as the focal point. If A WR emerges, Kittle is the one taking the biggest hit. You’re still picking him in the top 30 picks though. 

I think the decline of Zach Ertz has been greatly exaggerated. People still like Ertz mind you, but many people are hyping Dallas Goddard and predicting the decline of Ertz. I mean, he just set the record for TE receptions in a season. This is the same season where Kelce and Kittle where going nuts. Now, Carson Wentz throws a lot more to the WR than Nick Foles does, but he’s also not shy about using Ertz in the past. He’s still the primary target on this team and I think the worry is overblown. Plus, Goddard is going through some injuries, so any fear of a two TE behemoth can be put to rest. The main difference between Ertz and Kittle is that Kittle’s competition needs to emerge (and likely will), while Ertz competition is already established. It’s a nitpick, but it exists. Ertz is the TE that may slip in the draft, and if he’s there in the late 3, it’s an auto selection. Literally if you’re away from your computer since he’ll probably be ranked the highest.

Receiving Option Tier

• Evan Engram
• OJ Howard
• Hunter Henry

The way the preseason is setting up, Evan Engram might be in line for a huge target share. Golden Tate  will miss the first four weeks as his appeal was denied, and all that separates Engram from about 12 targets a week is Sterling Sheppard, who has a thumb injury. That’s not a huge hurdle to leap even if Sheppard is healthy. I don’t think the targets would be spectacularly valuable, but they do add up. Engram is not so secretly a WR dressed as a TE, so he could have value even on a bad Giants team.

A supreme Athlete, OJ Howard follows the mold of TE I always look for. If I could get confirmation he played basketball in college, I’d be all in. Howard has a few huge positives in his favor. First, and most importantly, Jameis Winston loves throwing to his TE, especially at the goal line. Howard scoring double digit TDs is a real possibility. Secondly, the team only has two other receiving options, so the targets will be available. The biggest flaw is Bruce Arenas’ offenses typically don’t feature the TE, but I think this will be an exception. He’s too talented to ignore.

Henry was the popular breakout pick for 2018 until he tore his ACL and missed out on the entire year. You may get Henry at a discount because of this, but it seems people jumped right back on the bandwagon. Note that Henry is a red zone weapon but won’t be a big volume receiver. All you really want from your TE is a touchdown and maybe 40 yards, which Henry should be able to do, but he doesn’t have the potential to be an elite TE like the first 5 guys unless he scores an absurd amount of times. Phillip Rivers loves TEs at the goal line, so I guess it’s not impossible.

Remaining Viable Player Tier

• David Njoku
• Vance McDonald
• Eric Ebron
• Austin Hooper

Njoku is another supremely talented, athletic TE that I love drafting every season. His biggest issue is the competition for targets. Unlike Howard, Njoku has competition all over the field, limiting his upside. He’ll have his big games, but I think it’ll take an injury for Njoku to fully break out. Still, the raw potential is so high, I had to list him here. In Jarvis Landry doesn’t take the Duke Johnson role, that could mean an uptick for Njoku.

Old McDonald is probably a bit too high here, but there’s a farm’s worth of targets available in Pittsburgh, and somebody needs to recoup them. McDonald has flashed at times in this offense, and the Steelers do factor the TE into their offense. He’s not going to be a great weekly play, but he should be better than average most weeks. That might not make you say E-I-E-I-O, but it’s good enough for 8^th at the position.  Which is good cause this joke is wearing thin.

I don’t like having Ebron ranked this high, and hopefully somebody else will take him, but you know what, he’s still probably going to be useful. There’s little chance he’ll repeat his TD total from 2018, but Andrew Luck loves throwing to TEs. He loves it. Hopefully his little bone issue doesn’t affect his affinity for TEs. Ebron should still remain a main benefactor, and the touchdowns probably remain to an extent. Now, if Andrew Luck misses anytime, this is worthless. Don’t draft him too high.

Hooper has quietly improved his output every season. But does anyone really want him? No, nobody would, and they’re correct. He’s just boring. You can use that to your advantage. Nobody is going to overpay for Austin Hooper. This means you can get him super late, get a decent TE, and have a stronger set of RB and WR, where you really win your leagues. Hooper won’t ever wow you, but he’s also not costing you games. Call him Mr. Neutral.

These are TE 1? Tier

• Jared Cook
• Trey Burton
• Jack Doyle
• Darren Waller

In a great offense that has targets available, Jared Cook could have an explosive season. He’s also coming off a top 5 finish in Oakland of all places, so he should, in theory, improve. But then you remember he’s Jared Cook – perennial disappointment. You’ll get several huge games out of Cook, and then 12 absolutely disasters. You can overcome that at TE, so I can see drafting him. I just don’t think it’ll be me. 

Burton was one of the more hyped players last season, and I was in on it. And boy did that not work out. Burton somehow finished as a top 12 TE, but that was from just playing every week. He was not good, and some fluky TDs saved his value. He could improve this year, but maybe he’s just not a primary target. You won’t have to pay much to find out, but I think you can do better than this.

This is a pretty big hedge, but I’m not entirely convinced Ebron is the best TE on the Colts. Doyle didn’t exactly light the world on fire in the past, but he was a high volume, incredibly low yardage time of TE that proved useful in PPR leagues. It’s really tough to say who will receive the second most targets on the team, and I wouldn’t rule out Doyle. Then again, I don’t think you have to draft him. Just keep him in mind. A good TE in Indy is worth a roster spot.

Antonio Brown compared Darren Waller favorably to Calvin Johnson. Imagine getting Calvin Johnson in your TE slot? Man, you’d have the best fantasy team of all time. This is high phrase, except we must remember that Antonio Brown is so far off the deep end, he probably thinks Daniel Jones went too low in the draft. Waller is hyper athletic, and this is the shoot for the moon pick I typically like at the position, but he has 18 career catches. This would be fine if he was in his second year, but he was drafted in 2015. Maybe all he needs is opportunity, but I’d exercise caution. He will not be on the audio portion of the TE preview, but only because I couldn’t confirm his basketball routes. If he played, I’ll agree with Antonio Brown and have him 4^th at the position*.

Old Man 1 Tier

• Jeff Swain
• Delanie Walker
• Greg Olson
• Jason Witten

Who the heck is Jeff Swain you ask? Honestly, I’m not sure either, but he’s the top TE for the Jaguars. I don’t think you can count on much in Jacksonville for fantasy this year, but Nick Foles loves throwing to TEs. Swain could be relevant if only for tendencies that Foles has shown in the past. Now, is Swain Zach Ertz? No, not at all. But at this point, it’s worth a shot.

Delanie Walker turned his foot around backwards in one of the more gruesome injuries you can see. Yet here he is, still returning to football. Walker is getting up there, but every year he’s played in Tennessee, he’s been a very relevant player. For basically no draft cost, he’s a decent target at the end of the draft. Just know there’s also basically no upside.

The best days of Greg Olson is likely behind us. He might even be completely washed. At one time, Olson was one of the most reliable TEs in the league, with multiple 1,000 yard seasons. It’s probably not happening this year, but you won’t lose much to find out. There’s worse last picks. At least G-Reg can rap.

Witten was so bad in the Monday Night Football booth, he’d prefer to take a beaten catching 5 yard passes over the middle then try it again. There’s actually zero upside here. There might be 0 yards after the catch for Witten. Still, he’ll probably have more catches then you think, so somebody, somewhere will play him. Don’t let it be you. 

Young’un Tier

• Mark Andrews
• Mike Gesicki
• TJ Hockenson
• Noah Fant

Somebody, in theory, has to catch the ball in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson’s throwing ability will forever be questioned, but most NFL QBs should be able to connect with a TE a few times a game. The Ravens have a plethora of TEs who haven’t proven anything, but Andrews is the favorite for the pass catching role. There’s a shot he could be valuable, but who knows honestly, especially when the team’s TE depth chart goes 7 deep.

In his second year, Gesicki could develop as a reliable pass catcher. However, this is only possible if Josh Rosen is the starting QB. Ryan Fitzpatrick does not use the TE at all, and odds are he’ll be the starter through September. Don’t worry much about Gesicki until October, when Fitzpatrick is benched for looking awful after a promising 3-1 start. Reports indicate Gesicki is about 19^th on the depth chart, but I’m confident that’s a motivational tool. It doesn’t make me want to draft him at all though.

Both Hockenson (Lions) and Fant (Broncos) are rookie TEs, who rarely, if ever, contribute to fantasy. It does happen occasionally, so  you want to monitor them, but don’t draft either of these guys. It’s better to wait and see.

Suspended and Undraftable Tier

• Chris Herndon

If it wasn’t for a 4 game suspension, Herndon would be much higher. Remember how I just mentioned rookie TEs don’t contribute? Well, Herndon was a rookie out there contributing, and ended up as a TE1 last season. Now, the position was a wasteland, so it doesn’t mean much. You will not burn a pick on Herndon as no amount of upside at TE is worth waiting 4 weeks. But, if you miss on TE for whatever reason, remember Herndon as a quality add in week 5. He should contribute, if not be a spectacular player.

Old Man 2 Tier

• Jimmy Graham
• Kyle Rudolph
• Jordan Reed

If you’re drafting in this tier, you either need to start 3 TEs, forgot the position existed for fantasy (I do that too), or really hate winning. These guys have no business being anywhere but the waiver wire week one, mostly due to age. Jimmy Graham wishes he moved as quick as a zombie, but may score a few TDs, I guess. It should come with 15 total catches for 98 yards though. Rudolph might end up ok in the overall ranks, but more as a compiler for playing 16 games. There’s really no upside here. Reed will not play enough games, though I could actually see him having a few games that matter, just in time for you to pick him up and see he’s hurt. That’s fantasy for you.

*This is a long running belief since Antonio Gates broke out that all former basketball players who move to TE will be great. Track record includes Gates, Tony Gonzales and Jimmy Graham.  It probably included 400+ players who failed to make the transition. 3 out of 403? Sign me up on those odds every year.