2018 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Preview Or Pitching on Borrowed Time

Does anyone remember the very mediocre movie Speed. It featured a before becoming a self parody Keanu Reeves and Sandra Bulloch. Bulloch, a bus driver had to keep the bus going at least 50 MPH or else a bomb would explode, killing every passenger. Reeves gets on the bus and tries to figure out a way to stop it from exploding. Due to traditional Hollywood bullshit, the passengers get off the bus safely (They are able to trick the bomber the passengers remain on the bus while they actually were escorted off it), and the villain was thwarted.

I don’t really have a point to that opening paragraph. I just wanted to point out just how stupid Hollywood plots get. I mean, if the guy just blew up the bus, wouldn’t he have won? Nobody is looking to negotiate with terrorists anyway.

This was kind of the inverse of the typical action movie plot line. A bomb will be planted somewhere, and the hero must disarm it before it destroys the building/shelter/nunnery. The hero makes it to the bomb with mere seconds to spare. The audience each hears the ticks as the hero struggles to figure out how to disarm it. Then he must choose which wire to cut. Miraculously, he picks the right one (Who knew!?) and everything is saved two seconds before things get explodey.

You know what I’d lie to see in a movie, just once? The hero cockily cuts the wire and then realizes he was wrong. I know, it’s dark as hell, but don’t we need this twist? I mean, it’s about time somebody takes a stand in Hollywood. Right now, all we have is remarks and sequels. The next original movie released will be the first on decades.

The cliché bomb scenario does have a practical comparison to fantasy baseball. No really, I’m not delaying for multiple paragraphs today. We have like 120 starting pitchers to discuss. I need you to be as alert as possible.

The problem with starting pitchers is the same problem with this Hollywood trope. Whether it’s cutting a wire in time or a pitcher’s career, both are only one snip away from having a devastating result.

Pitchers are an elevated risk in comparison to hitters. This doesn’t mean all hitters are safer than pitchers, but from the nature of their positions, every pitcher represents risk. Oh, so you think drafting a pitcher with a clean bill of health means he’s safe? Consider the wear and tear of pitching every five days since high school, and you’ll start to get nervous. Even just he motion of throwing a pitch is awkward and unnatural.

Once pitchers begin to get hurt, it seems they can’t get out of their own way. Consider former relevant pitcher Matt Harvey. When Harvey came to the majors in 2012, he looked decent. Nobody expected him to completely turn the corner in the manner he did. He was one of the three best pitchers in baseball in 2013… until he had to get Tommy John surgery and lose his 2014. In 2015, he was extremely good as well, helping to lead the Mets to the World Series. Then, everything fell apart. In 2016, Harvey was plain bad, ultimately being shut down halfway through the season and receiving thoracic outlet syndrome. This procedure is basically a death sentence for a pitcher. Imagine the bomb not just going off, but exploding while on a person’s throwing arm. Harvey managed to be the worst pitcher in baseball in 2017.

This was a guy who was one of the five best pitchers in baseball two season’s prior. From the top of the class to the worst. It’s insane. This is why I can’t recommend you take a pitcher in the first two rounds of the draft. Sure, the pitchers going there seem safe, but not only are you passing up on the game’s best hitters, a much safer investment, you’re also putting your early picks at an elevated risk. Do I think Corey Kluber will be the worst pitcher in baseball? No, of course not, but I don’t think it’s worth the investment. Even in points leagues, I think you can wait, a bit, and not draft a pitcher in the first two rounds.

This doesn’t mean you’re punting on the pitching categories. Even in this offense friendly era, there’s still plenty of pitchers that can lead your staff. For Roto and category leagues, you’ll want to draft a pitcher in the first five rounds, typically round four, where plenty of elite pitchers go. If you’re playing points, you’ll want to take two hurlers in these four rounds, usually picks three and four. You need pitching to compete, but you don’t need to make it your number one priority. Typically after 10 rounds, I’ll have three starters, seven hitters, and absolutely no relievers. That’s a ratio I’d strive for. Again, in points, it’s different. You might even want to be 50% hitters, 50% pitchers at that point in the draft. Starters run the points game, so keep that in mind.

Later in my draft, after my offense is set, I like going incredibly heavy in starters. I like drafting upside wherever I can get it. You don’t want to clutter your bench with just hitters – Most fantasy worthy picks will play everyday. Instead you want to draft starters who you can move in and out of the lineup depending on matchups. This is essential in daily leagues. Even in weekly leagues, you can play the pitchers who have the best, or the most, starts. Trust me, it’s a winning strategy.

Now for the questions about Starting Pitchers

Where is the talent drop off?

As the requirement for starters is higher than any other position in fantasy, I’ve expanded the tier drops to five levels. Don’t say I haven’t done anything for you.

Tier 1 ends at Noah Syndergaard. These are the top five starters, who possess elite levels of statistics, upside and safety. Yes, I know Thor wasn’t healthy last year, but with the disappearance of workhorses, few pitchers offer the upside Syndergaard possesses. He’s also the only one you’ll have a prayer of drafting, as he goes in the fourth round of 10 team leagues, which is highway robbery. Don’t expect to have anyone in this tier, and that’s ok.

Tier 2 ends at Justin Verlander. That leaves you with 12 pitchers, factoring in the first tier. You want to have at least one of these pitchers, as they provide the stability and strikeout baseline you need. Remember, the later you draft one of these pitchers, the quicker you want to follow-up with another one from tier two or three. Typically, you want two starters after the first six rounds, but if you don’t do this, don’t panic. There’s plenty of talent left.

Tier 3 end with Jon Lester. Now, the pitchers are up to 24 arms. If possible, you want three of them at this point, as that will give you a solid base for your rotation. If you only have two, it’s fine, but you’ll need to hit the pitchers a little harder than normal. Although all pitchers are injury prone, if you have ones with a history of injuries, consider jumping on a few early.

Tier 4 ends with Charlie Morton. While we only added 9 pitchers, there’s a big discrepancy with the ADP and where I rank them. That means you may be able to target and land two or three of these guys and bolster your rotation. This is especially important if you’re behind in pitching.

Tier 5 ends with Jeff Samardzija in the rare tier within a tier move. This is where you get the last pitcher or two you aren’t afraid to cut. Shoot to have six to seven of these pitchers.

In the late rounds, your goal should be to fill your bench with high upside pitchers. If any of these late picks don’t work, cut them and begin to stream. Even if you have a move cap, streaming is the way to go. It’ll help bridge the gap against those who use higher picks on arms, and you should have them beat offensively.

Who are the pivot players at Starting Pitcher?

Robbie Ray – Ray has always been a strikeout artist who finally put together an elite season for the first time in his career. He still walks way too many hitters and his FIP was significantly higher than his ERA suggested. He gives up hard contact, but managed to stay lucky for a full season. Many experts expect his luck to run out, but with Arizona installing a humidor, it may reverse his luck. I don’t love his walks, but I think his strikeouts will keep him. closer to his 2017 value than his previous years.

Jon Lester – Is Lester done? This was the question as Lester had one of his worst season with an ERA above 4. Part of this could be explained due to a hangover from the Cubs making the World Series. Another argument could be made that Lester is on the wrong side of thirty, and is on the decline. Lester looked like he was running out of gas in Boston, and the Cubs revived his career. I don’t think Lester is done yet, but he’s no longer the #1 anchor for your staff. This year, he can potentially be had as a #3, and I think that’s a potential steal.

Shohei Ohtani – The player everyone wants to draft, Ohtani comes to the states with sky high upside, and even higher expectations. Firstly, put his hitting out of your mind – he won’t hit enough to assist you and it seems like he’ll struggle this year. Pitching wise, he has all the tools to be an ace, but he’ll be capped at 150 innings. I think the strikeouts and ratios will be there, but there’s no potential for innings 150 is the high-end – it could be lower. Couple that with the high potential that someone in your league will reach on him, and I think I’ll be passing this year. We’ll talk about him in 2019.

What should I look at for in my starting pitcher?

The most obvious thing to look at strikeouts. It’s the best result a pitcher can have as it not only records an out, but avoids any of the dangers from putting a ball in play. You’ll see the rank reflect that strikeouts remain king in fantasy. But it’s not everything. There’s plenty of good pitchers that induce weak contact and fail to rack up K’s. As long as you aren’t capped on innings or starts, this is fine. Just make sure the ratios are there.

Good control is a huge factor n deciding on a pitcher. Even with elite strikeouts, walks and home uns can destroy a pitcher’s use. Take Robbie Ray as an example. He was elite last year, but he still carries risk due to his wildness. If his strikeouts take a dip, he’s waiver wire fodder. Consider that he’s one of the top K men in the league, and you can see how delicate the line is. Take a look at pitchers strikeout to walk ratios. If it’s less than 2:1, you should be drafting them aggressively.

As a tiebreaker, I will look at the pitcher’s home park. While many fantasy analysts have soften on Rockies’ pitchers, I have not, except for Jon Gray. The park definitely can make a difference, and a pitcher’s park makes streaming decisions easier. I also would rather have an NL pitcher over an AL one, as personally, I’d rather face a pitcher than somebody who is paid solely to hit.

Which Starting Pitchers should surprise?

James Paxton – If he can stay healthy, James Paxton is an ace. At his best last year, Paxton was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He can touch 100 of the gun, and has a full arsenal of pitchers. His also a lefty and reminds people a little bit of Randy Johnson – no he’s not as good, but he’s damn dominant. All that’s really slowed him down is injuries. Even if he 0misses some time, his numbers are so elite, he’s still worth his draft price, with the upside of the #1 pitcher in fantasy. Don’t worry about his spring training numbers, he should be a star whenever he takes the mound.

Luke Weaver – Unfortunately, everybody loves Weaver, which hurts my chance of landing him. Try to tell people he’s Jared Weaver’s brother, and the draft price should plummet. Don’t worry, he’s not related.

Weaver throws hard and has a full arsenal of pitchers. In his minor league career, his ERA is under two. Under 2! He also has the best thing possible working for him – he’s a Cardinals prospect. All Cardinal prospects work out. Part of his upside is baked into his price, but I think he could be a top 25 pitcher this year.

Mike Clevenger – Now that Clevenger is assured a starting spot in the rotation, he might strike them all out. His control is not where I like for my pitchers, but his strikeout outs are off the charts. He’s been a good pitcher for two season’s now, and there’s no risk of him losing his starting spot because he’s better then Josh Tomlin, and possibly Danny Salazar. He should be about the 50^th pitcher off the board. Reach a little bit higher and you should have a solid addition to your team.

Charlie Morton – Originally, I was concerned Morton would be in the bullpen. Fortunately, he is assured a starting role, and has a lot going for him. Somehow at 33, Morton found an uptick in velocity, and began striking out more than a batter an inning. Playing for the Astros wont hurt his opportunity to win, and he’ll go super late in the draft. The only thing hurting him is the Astros may go to a six man rotation, but you know what? His 150-160 innings is going to be a lot more valuable than most pitchers’ 180. Don’t be afraid to take him in the mid rounds.

Which Starting Pitchers will disappoint?

Aaron Nola – I believe in Nola’s talent. What I don’t believe in is his elbow. For two consecutive years, there has been significant concern over Nola’s elbow, and while he’s gone on the DL, nothing major has hit. This was a huge deal in 2017 and why Nola feel deep in drafts. He pitched extremely well, but I don’t see how his elbow still isn’t a ticking time bomb. I feel like Nola will miss time this year, and while most pitchers will, his might be the full year from Tommy John variety. I wouldn’t feel good about him being my ace, or my #2 really.

Jose Berrios – Why is everybody sold on Berrios as a top 25 pitcher? He had a 12 game stretch where he looked dominant. That’s it. Otherwise, he’s been pretty awful. He can strike out batters at a good rate, but he’s wild, and hasn’t proven to be a great pitcher with any consistency. If you want upside, I get it, but I don’t think you can rely on him yet. Where you have to draft him, he’d be your #2 pitcher. That scares me.

Alex Wood – Wood’s season came out of nowhere, and he ended up being one of the biggest waiver wire adds in the year. I’m just not buying he gets through half the year without suffering a big injury. His history is full of injury plagued seasons. He also seemed to run out of gas in the second half of last season, so his dominant first game could have been an aberration. I’d proceed with caution with Wood.

David Price – People don’t think Price is just going back to where he was before last season, right? Price should have had Tommy John Surgery, but because of his age, the doctors didn’t want to recommend it. Price is basically pitching with a ruined elbow, and people are drafting him as though he’ll be David Price. Let’s not forget he wasn’t exactly elite going into 2017 either. Fenway isn’t the best park for his skills. Truthfully, he seems like he’ll be a reliever sooner than later. That could extend his career, because I don’t think he’ll be able to remain an above average starter for long.

Any Valuable Prospects?

Truthfully, I don’t love drafting pitching prospects. There’s too many variables with pitchers, and I feel they tend to struggle more than hitters when they come up. I have a section of the most valuable prospects for this season as the end of the rankings, so I’d use that instead. If I had to pick one, it would be Michael Kopech, who has little in the way of him hitting the majors. He could be a real impact pitcher in 2017, but I don’t think he’s worth drafting in case the White Sox hold him back to keep his rights for longer.

WH – Workhorse – A pitcher who will likely throw 180 or more innings.

K – Strikeouts – A pitcher who will likely strike out more than a batter per inning.

C – Good Control – Keeps his walks to a minimum and has the potential for a WHIP around 1.15 or lower.

RR – Ratio Risk – Potential for blowing up your ratios – over a 4.00 ERA and/or a 1.30 WHIP.

IR – Injury Risk – Has a history of injuries beyond the average pitcher, making drafting him an elevated risk.

Top of the Heap

Chris Sale BOS (WH, K, C) – This isn’t me trying to be different; Sale has earned this spot. He’s pitched over 200 innings the past three years, topped 300 Ks last season and despite the motion, doesn’t have any nagging injuries. He’s the safest pitcher on the board, and even in a division filled with difficult parks, he’s been dominant.

Max Scherzer WAS(WH, K, C) – Just as dominant in the American League, the only thing preventing Scherzer from having the top spot was missing out on the K numbers that Sale hits. Everything else is stellar, though he does suffer with the long ball occasionally. You won’t regret drafting Scherzer, other than missing on an elite hitter. That remains more important to me.

Clayton Kershaw LAD(K, C, IR) – I don’t really see why I need to justify this ranking since he’s #3, but fine. Kershaw has missed time due to a back injury the past two years. The Dodgers rotation is stacked and there’s no reason for the Dodgers to push him to 200 innings with the depth they have. I expect at least one phantom DL stink for Kershaw this year. Now, when he pitches, he’s still the best in the game (At least during the regular season). Nobody will hold a candle to his ratios. But if I can have someone more likely to make 32 starts and put up 95% of Kershaw’s stats, I’ll take him instead.

Corey Kluber CLE (WH, K, C) – He’s 200 innings and 225+ Ks in the bank. Kluber is the model of consistency and shows what can happen if he has a little luck on his side – the man had a 0.87 WHIP last year. That’s just insane. If you want a pitcher early, and can snag Kluber, you won’t trail the other aces by much at all. He had a bad 2016, but it’s clear he’s one of the best five pitchers in baseball.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (K, C, IR) – This may be my Mets bias, by Thor belongs among the game’s elites even after missing most of 2017. All of the injury concerns with Thor are overblown. Yes he missed time last year, but it was because he confused himself with the Norse God and tried to pitch through a lat tear. He’s as good as the guys listed above, and if he pitches a full slate, he’ll finish in the top five. Don’t believe the doubters, he can carry your staff and you might get him in the early fourth round.

 

#1s

Madison Bumgarner SF (WH, K, C) – Bumgarner is a bit like Frank Gore for me. I’ve been predicting his downfall for years after his long playoff runs, filled with his own heroics. However, every season, he brings 200 innings, gaudy strikeout totals and stellar ratios. Last year’s injury was due to Bumgarner being an idiot off the mound riding a dirt bike, and is not a precursor to more issues. He may go the way of Felix Hernandez sooner than later because of all the mileage, but this is a still an elite pitcher. I put him in tier two in fear of all those long playoff runs though. On the plus, he doesn’t have to worry about that anymore.

Jacob deGrom NYM (WH, K, C) – Completely underrated, deGrom has always been in someone else’s shadow, whether it be Matt Harvey’s, Harvey’s ego or Thor’s. Honestly, he’s probably the Mets best pitcher, and while he never had the raw stuff of the other two, his is exceptional in its own right. He doesn’t possess the upside that the top six pitchers have, but he’s as safe as a pitcher and with some better fielding behind him, could have his best statistical season yet. This is an ace.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (K, C, IR) – If Strasburg could stay healthy for a full season, there’s no reason he couldn’t be the number one pitcher in fantasy. However, there’s a better odds of me starting for the Mets this season than 32 starts out of Strasburg. Actually, with the Mets injury history, that’s not completely outlandish… I better start working on my Knuckler.

Strasburg has the full package and on a per game basis will be worth his draft slot, but since it’s coupled with being sidelined, I wouldn’t take the plunge personally. Give me deGrom’s reliability and slightly worse ratios any day.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (K, C, IR) – Carrasco is a lot like Strasburg – unquestionable stuff when healthy, but a lock to miss time. Carrasco has times where he struggles with commands, but he also racks up Ks at a rapid pace. In the past, Carrasco’s injury history helped keep his draft price down, making him a bargain. Now that he is rightfully recognized as an elite, he’s a little too expensive for my taste with his bill of health.

Yu Darvish CHC (K) – Unlike the other pitchers in the first two tiers, Darvish doesn’t have a stellar WHIP, or even that great of ERA. What is does pile on is strikeouts. After recovering from Tommy John surgery, Darvish seems to be back to his pre injury levels, and joining the Cubs doesn’t hurt his projections. He’s not the ideal #1 pitcher, (as a number two he’d be great), so if you end up with him, you want to pair him with another pitcher quickly to assist your ratios. A pitcher like Keuchel is a great match for Darvish.

Carlos Martinez STL (WH, K) – This guy doesn’t get nearly enough credit. Martinez seems to get better every year, but nobody talks much about him. He’s similar to Carrasco before 2017, except he has a clean bill of health. You can argue this is a bit too low. This guy is available in the 5^th or 6^th round, and honestly, I’d rather have him as my ace than Darvish, but I think Darvish will be more valuable to a complete staff. I know that makes no sense, but that’s my justification.

Justin Verlander HOU (WH, K, C) – Here’s the sneaky secret about Verlander’s dominant resurgence the past few years – he gets off to slow starts. His ratios do not look great in the first few months of the season before he turns it on in the second half, where he becomes arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Be careful drafting him, because if he’s slow out of the gate, you may think this is the end. I can also see Houston, a pitching rich team, keeping him fresh by skipping starts. My advice? Trade for him in June at 75 cents on the dollar, and reap the benefits.

 

Could be Aces

James Paxton SEA (K, C, IR) – Pax Daddy is the most electric pitcher in sports entertainment today. Hell, I’d tell him to drop the people’s elbow after every strikeout if he wasn’t so brittle.

On a per game basis, I think Paxton might be the best fantasy pitcher in the game. He won 6 games in July with a 1.37 ERA and carried teams. He will strike out more than a batter an inning and he has decent control. You won’t get 200 innings. You probably won’t get 170, but the upside on Paxton is so high, it’s hard to turn him down as a #2. The fact that you can get him as a #3 makes him that much better. Suck up the injuries and hope he’s healthy enough to carry you for month long stretches.

Robbie Ray ARI (K, RR) – Ray has always had the strikeouts down. Last year his ks came with some good luck. He’s not the typical ace. He walks far too many batters and gives up a ton of hard contact. What he can do is miss bats, so if paired with a true ace, his shaky WHIP is offset and gives you a dominant advance is strikeouts. Pairing Ray with someone like Keuchel.

Luis Severino NYY (K) – I want to see Severino perform at an elite level a second time before I rank him too high. I’ve seen some place rank him in the top 40 overall and that’s where deGrom sits. That seems aggressive. He has an incredible ceiling, but his floor is 2016 level lows. He also jumped up 120 innings, so let’s not pretend he’s immune from injuries. I get if you want the upside, but proceed with caution. He never flashed this ability before 2017.

Chris Archer TB (WH, K, RR) – While Archer continues to churn out 200 inning season filled with Ks, his other numbers disappoint. His WHIP over 1.20 isn’t elite for a fantasy pitcher, and his ERA has cracked over four each of the past two seasons. Part of the reason he ranks so high is that a lucky season will propel him to top five status. There’s also the chance he gets traded to a better team. Still, this is a better pitcher than the numbers show, and better ratios are certainly attainable

 

I have my doubts

Dallas Keuchel HOU (C) – My main issue with Keuchel is that he doesn’t strike out nearly enough batters. He relies on a high ground ball rate and inducing soft contact to succeed. He’s been very good at it for three of the past four years, but it seems like a narrow window. The wins will be there, and the ratios will probably be good, but I’ll let somebody else pay the draft price unless a take a Darvish or a Ray. Keuchel is a pitcher that fits certain staffs, but not all of them.

Zack Greinke ARI (WH, K, C) – For Greinke the issue isn’t strikeouts, it’s velocity. He sits at about 90 on his fastball, and at 34, it could fall even further. Anything lower and he becomes a less lovable Bartolo Colon. Obviously Grienke has thrived with lower velocity in his career, but his age coupled with that scare me. He even said after low velocity ratings in Spring Training, he’s not sure it’ll ever come back. This is likely hyperbole, but I don’t feel great about it. Even with the humidor, I think there’s a chance he’s the Diamondbacks #3 starter.

Gerrit Cole HOU (WH, K) – I think this ranking is more based on his pedigree and situation than his recent performance. He offers strikeout potential, but the results really haven’t been there. In Houston, this might change, but I don’t think he becomes an overwhelming force. I think a lot of his value will end up tied in wins and Ks, but the ratios will be meh. Still, the Astros are a smark organization, and they will get the most out of Cole that they can.

Jose Quintana CHC (WH) – Quintana has been good for so long, I think he got a bit overrated. He was always relatable for a solid ERA, WHIP and good but not great Ks. Last year he struggled with the White Sox, improved marginally after being traded across town to the Cubs, and now he’s hailed as an elite pitcher. I don’t know if the strikeout spike will remain, though the extra wins may inflate his value. He’s a low-end #2, but don’t believe hype he can be more than that.

 

I have even more doubts

Aaron Nola PHI (K, IR) – I get that Nova was very good last year and has strikeout upside. But are we really ranking him with in the top 15 when the guy has never thrown 170 innings? Last year we were terrified of his elbow and now we’re just assuming everything is ok. I’m not buying in. I think Nola is a very good pitcher and he’ll likely be great on a per start bias. But when you have the injury history Nola has, and the potential for something big hitting, I don’t want a share.

Kyle Hendricks CHC (WH, C) – Hendricks doesn’t throw hard at all, yet his strikeout rates are above average and he keeps the ball in the yard. His biggest issue is that he must induce soft contact or he will get battered around. He’s done is for three straight years so I won’t doubt him but he doesn’t offer the upside that others ranked above, or quite honestly below him do. He’s not a guy facing lineups for a third time, so the innings will remain somewhat low. He may cost himself wins by getting pulled early, but there’s still a lot to like here.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (K, C, IR) – I think people are overlooking his horrid first half because he picked it up in the second half. Just because he pitched good at the end of the year doesn’t erase his bad first half, or his years totals of a 4.74 ERA. The strikeouts were elite. But the long ball issues are still there and I mean, the elbow is eventually going to need surgery, right? What is this? Year five of his tendons barely holding on? I do like Tanaka as a third starter, but people are ranking him more aggressively. If he’s falling in the eighth round, sure, but nothing more than that.

Jon Lester CHC (WH, K, IR) – Lester had a bad year by his standards and is no spring chicken. He’s been involved in plenty of late post season runs and there’s a chance the mileage caught up to him. I don’t think he’s done; he still struck out a batter an inning. I would not feel good with him as my number one, and I wouldn’t feel great with him as my number two without one of the elite guys.

 

All Upside Tier

Zack Godley ARI (K, IR) – This is one player where I might draft him 20 spots higher than where he’s going. I do get one hit wonder vibes from him, but it was a great hit. He had a more than a strikeout an inning, a good WHIP, and did it all in Arizona’s nightmare pitching conditions. Now with the Humidor a go, Arizona might go from one of the worst pitching parks so the absolute best. I think Godley will be good regardless, but I worry about injury. His innings jumped up by 80 last year, and that puts some stress on the arm. If he avoids the DL, he’s got a shot at top 20 status. If you have two solid pitchers, reach on him.

Shohei Ohtani  LAA(K, IR) – I love the concept of Ohtani as a player, but unfortunately for fantasy, you usually don’t get both the hitter and pitcher stats. Most systems are counting Ohtani as two separate entities which doesn’t even make sense. It’s like when Stephen Urkel split into Stephon Ur-Kel. Don’t act like you don’t know they were played by the same guy. The hitter Ohtani probably shouldn’t be drafted but the pitcher can still be elite, per game.

The biggest issue with Ohtani is the innings limit is will definitely have. If things go perfect, I don’t see him topping 150 innings. Then, the elbow damage he has is a major concern. Tommy John is still on the table here. When he pitches, he’ll be an elite source of strikeouts, and his ratios should be useful as well, but don’t reach on him. Let somebody else do that.

Luis Castillo CIN (K) –Castillo seems to be on everybody’s breakout list and based on his 2017, who can blame them? He struck out over a batter an inning, showed impressive control and most importantly, he looked like he belonged. Just remember he’s likely on an innings count, and the Reds aren’t pretending to be competing. If there’s a hint of an injury, he’s getting shut down. He should be elite until that happens though.

Luke Weaver STL (K, IR) – I love this guy this year. He had hype last season and when he got called up to start, he was dominant. All cardinal pitching prospects work out; it’s in the MLB rulebook. Even Rick Ankiel became a star outfielder after busting as a pitcher. He’s go elite strikeout stull and was absolutely dominant in the minors. There will be an innings limit and he has injuries in the past, but the talent is too great. I’m all in.

Lance McCullers HOU (K, RR, IR) – Ah Lance. His performance in Game 7 of the ALCS is why he’s so alluring and frustrating at the same time. He threw 20 straight curveballs, and it worked out. McCullers is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, and he will rack up Ks with the elites. However, there’s a lack of control and his curveball heavy mix leads to frequent injuries. You’re paying for 150 innings, but at this price, the risk could be worth it. If he somehow got to 180, a top 10 finish in it reach, but he’d probably walk that opportunity away anyway. He is not for the WHIP conscious.

Rich Hill CHC (K, C, IR) – This guy doesn’t even make sense. After being off the radar for years, Hill came back in 2016 and pitched incredibly, but was always hurt. After getting healthy in May, Hill actually made 25 starts in a row. He has an amazing K rate and elite WHIP numbers, but he’s a risky bet to make many starts. You can expect more than 120 innings, but he’ll be drafted like a top 25 pitcher. You know what the difference between Richards and Hill might be? 12 rounds. If he falls in the draft, Hill will be great when it’s his turn.

Mike Clevinger CLE (K, RR) – To thin the Indians would have put Clevenger in the pen had Danny Salazar been healthy. All while Josh Tomlin is out there being horrible at pitcher. Even Josh Tomlin thinks that’s dumb. Somehow, they both ended up in the rotation. Go figure. He strikes out a ton of guys, provides a decent ratio and is on a great team. Other than WHIP danger due to too many walks, he could be a real asset, like SP 3 asset.

Garrett Richards LAA (K, IR) – I know, I know, this ranking is silly, but Richards has a great pitch mix, throws gas, and always seems like he’s on the verge of a breakout before getting injured. Now, he’s coming back from a UCL injury that did NOT involve Tommy John. Instead he just had stem cells injected in him. Wait, he had the Kobe? Why didn’t I rank him in the top five?

The Angels will likely have a six man rotation, and while that caps Richard’s upside, it also might keep him healthy. I’d rather get 160 innings of a healthy Richards than 80 of an injured one. Remember, my rank is silly high. You’ll be able to get two or three other pitchers and draft Richards as the end of the draft. That’s perfect.

Charlie Morton HOU (IR)– Morton has a devastating arsenal, and even when he struggled in the postseason as a starter, he was still entrusted in a relief role in the World Series, including closing on game 7. The Astros definitely trust him, and with his strikeout rate and peripherals, it’s tough not too. He has a bad injury history which will limit his innings pitched, but when he’s active, it’ll be good numbers. He’s great as a mid-round option.

 

Red Flag Tier

Johnny Cueto SF (WH, RR) – Cueto was abysmal last year and the questions have begun to arise if he’s washed up. Cueto was already considered washed up once and bounced back for two elite seasons, so I don’t think he’s finished. His days as a top 12 starter is probably over though. Part of the problem was suffering through blisters. That feels like a fluke for someone who never had the problem before. If he’s healthy in the spring, pounce on him for a value. He could have another elite year left in his arm.

Alex Wood LAD (IR) – Wood struggled with his ability and his health for two years before having an amazing season. His WHIP was lower by .3 from his previous best season and his strikeout rate spiked. He’s still in his 20s, so it’s possible he just reached a new level, but I feel like this is the peak. Never draft a player when their cost is the ceiling. This is the lowest probably anyone has Wood, but it’s with a purpose. I won’t be owning him and I’m ok with that.

Michael Fulmer DET (C, IR) – I don’t get why Fulmer is pushed down the ranks this season. I get his numbers are a step back from his rookie year. He had a higher ERA, WHIP and a lower strikeout rate. He doesn’t play for a very competitive team. I’d expect an increase in the strikeouts and a closer return to his rookie season. You can get him way later than where I have him.

Gio Gonzales WAS (WH, K, RR) – You never want to pay for someone’s career year, and I’m pretty sure Gio just had has. His command has always been an issue. In fact, he walked 72 batters last year. That’s a lot of free passes. Last year he was able to avoid the damage, but that’s due to him getting lucky. Don’t expect a repeat. Even with serviceable stats, you could easily have a 1.40 WHIP which is tough to counteract.

Jake Arrieta PHI (WH, K) – Arrieta is trending in the wrong direction. Granted that direction started at a 1.77 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP, so even though his current numbers are definitely useful, they aren’t “Oh my God!” elite. Arrieta signed with Philly, and I’m not sure if he’ll be ready by opening day. Arrieta will have to keep the ball on the ground because he might be susceptible to homers in Philly’s park. At least he stayed in the National League.

David Price BOS (WH, K, IR)  – Other than the fact that his elbow could break off at any point and time, and the rumors Price may just become a bullpen arm, everything is fine here. Seriously, there’s no telling what Price will do this season. The reports say he’s healthy, but as a Mets fan, I’m not always willing to believe the first reports. If Price is healthy in the spring, you can bump him a good seven or eight spots, but if there’s any hiccups stay the hell away.

Marcus Stroman TOR (IR)– Stroman is basically Quintana, but without as much hype. He is always good, though seems to have a minor injury annually. There is more strikeout potential here with his large arsenal, though his frame may limit ever becoming a workhorse. Stroman will not hurt your team. He won’t win you the title on his own, but he’s a good pitcher that goes later than he’s ranked. He’s currently battling a shoulder injury, and while it sounds minor, I had to drop him some as any missed time signficiantly weakens Stroman’s best asset – he’ll probably throw 200 innings.

Drew Pomerantz BOS (K, IR) – I assumed Pomerantz pitched 120 inning last year, but he was over 170. He was also over 170 two years ago. And you know what? His numbers are pretty good. Pomerantz just feels so risky. He’s always being skipped in the rotation for one small ailment after another, and he seems to have a limited shelf life before he disappears for 18 months. It’s always a gamble owning him, but if Pomerantz comes cheap, he’s worth it.

Jon Gray COL (K) – If Gray pitched in a normal stadium, he’s be a household name. He has elite stuff and hits all the checkboxes an ace needs. Of course he pitches in the little league park that is Coors Field, so it hurts his stats. Despite the handicap, his numbers don’t usually turn out so bad. In a best case scenario, he’d have a lot more road starts than home runs, but that won’t be the case. He’s still a good mid round pick, but if he was on any other team…Do the right thing Rockies and trade him for hitters. You know you want to.

 

Risky Business Tier

Jose Berrios MIN (K, RR) – Maybe I’m just a hater, but I don’t see a breakout coming. He got his command under control last year, which excites most people, and his strikeout numbers are pretty solid, but a lot of this good will was built during an early twelve game stretch. Afterwards, he was back to his old habits and didn’t look like an ace. There will be somebody who loves Berrios and draft him early, as though he’s a proven commodity. Just let that happen and move on.

Danny Duffy KC (K, IR) – Duffy’s follow up to his break out 2016 did not go well. He spent most of the year hurt, lost some velocity and had surgery in the offseason to remove bone spurs. No the Triple Crown you’d hope for. Duffy throws gas when he’s heathy and should provide good strikeout ratios, but I don’t think he can count on a full season. He has a history of arm injuries and it feels like he might be out for three months this season. Proceed with caution, because the upside remains shy high.

Dinelson Lamet SD (K, RR) – Lamet seems like a new Michael Pineda. He has a dominant fastball and slider, and his rookie strikeout numbers were amazing. However, all his other numbers sucked. I don’t think the Padres plan on doing a lot of winning, so Lamet will take some lumps but give the all-important ks. Don’t expect an ace, but when the hardest pitching piece is in place, there’s always a chance. Just be careful he is Pineda 2.0 and puts up 4 runs, 8 hits and 9 Ks in 5 and a third innings.

 

Strikeouts at a price tier

Jeff Samardzija SF (WH) – Say what you will about Samardzija, but he provides something most pitchers today don’t – innings. He has pitched 200 innings in each of the past three seasons. Last year, he wasn’t just a compiler, he was really good, including 200 Ks and useful ratios. I can’t possible recommend him, but he’ll be out there making 30+ starts, and even if he’s 80% of his 2017, that’s a solid piece to your rotation.

Dylan Bundy BAL (K, RR, IR) – Bundy’s career has been all about potential and injuries. Seemingly every time he starts showing flashes of his potential, an injury ruins it. In 2017, Bundy finally had a relatively healthy season. The final line doesn’t look that great, but a healthy season is a huge step in the right direction. He’ll always struggle with ERA as long as he’s on Baltimore, but there’s a ton of upside here. The strikeout could easily increase in the second full season and he has a unique slider/cutter hybrid  that he’s free to unleash. People will pass him on from last season’s totals and being an AL East pitcher, but don’t be afraid to add him late.

Trevor Bauer CLE (K, RR) – One of the worst rappers of all time, Bauer has made strides by lowering his walks and ERA in three straight seasons while upping his K-rate. Don’t forget how big of prospect Bauer was, and he’s firmly entranced as the #3 starter on the Indians. There’s a lot to like here, but also a good deal of risk. Bauer still walks too many guys despite the improvements and hasn’t had an ERA under 4 in the past three seasons. Now, pitching guru Mickey Callaway (is that too far?) has left the organization, so there’s a chance for regression. I’m in on Bauer as a SP five with upside from there.

Chase Anderson MIL – (K) – After years of mediocre numbers, Anderson has a huge breakout year, lowering his ERA by 1.5 runs and while upping his strikeout rate. If these gains are real, Anderson is a value in drafts. However, a breakout at age 30 is unlikely, and he’s never shown this kind of ability in the majors. I think he deserves to be drafted, but don’t be too aggressive. His improvements were only in 140 innings, so it’s more than likely a fluke.

Jake Faria TB (K, RR, IR) – One of the biggest risks of Faria was the lack of opportunity. With Brent Honeywell undergoing Tommy John surgery, Faria should be safe in the rotation He showed a good strikeout rate and pitches in a great park. He’s arsenal isn’t incredible, but it gets the job done. There’s worry he might not be as successful this year, but projections have him averaging over a k per inning. In his park, that’s upside that needs to be rostered. Reach a round earlier than his ADP.

Michael Wacha STL (K, RR) – I don’t know what happened in 2016, but Wacha seemed more like himself in 2017. The Ks returned, but the WHIP and ERA did not follow suit.  He’s a better pitcher than that though, and when some better luck, he can have an elite year. He won’t cost much and he’s somewhat safe, even in comparison to people ranked above him. Granted, the safety might be a 4.00 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but he’s not in danger of losing his job.

Excellent Attendance Tier

Sonny Gray NYY (RR) – Gray bounced back from a dreadful 2016 to be a pretty solid pitcher for the Yankees. The biggest issue he has is the lack of elite strikeouts. He relies on pinpoint accuracy, but that’s not ideal in the launching pad that is Yankee stadium. I know it doesn’t matter for fantasy, but the fact the Yankees kind of buried him in their payoff rotation is a bad sign. He’s a piece for a fantasy team, but nothing more.

Julio Teheran ATL (WH) – I have a really bad read on Teheran. I thought he was much better, but his career numbers are fairly underwhelming. He doesn’t have an elite strikeout ratio and walks have been a problem in two of the last three years. The new Atlanta ballpark is a Godsend for left handed power, but Teheran will probably give up a decent amount of homers. Still, he’s not a bad pitcher, and has topped 180 innings the past three years. He’s a back end rotation piece that has the potential for more.

Rick Porcello BOS (C, RR) – Even in real time, his 2016 Cy Young seemed like such a fluke. In the other two years, he’s been dreadful. To Porcello’s credit, his K’s are up from two years ago, and he still has decent control. He’s a decent bet for 200 innings, but not much else. If you use him, it’s because you need some innings. He’s really more of a points league play.

Cole Hamels TEX (WH, K?) – How the mighty have fallen. Hamels’ lost a bunch of his strikeout ability and had one of his worst seasons. On the positive, he still had a decent WHIP, though his season was shorten by injury. There’s a lot of mileage on Hamels, so I think the end is near. He won’t be useless, but don’t expect any reassurance to the Hamels of two or three years ago.

 

 

DL All Stars Tier

Taijuan Walker ARI (IR) – Walker is one of those pitchers everyone remembers being a prospect and having a lot of talent, but he hasn’t lived up to the hype. Last year was one of his best on the mound, throwing for a decent K rate and a 3.49 ERA. He coupled this with a 1.33 WHIPs, and walks far too many hitters. The humidor is very interesting for Walker’s potential, but he needs to stay healthy. You can’t rely on his for more than 150 innings.

Jameson Taillon PIT (IR) – Taillon’s career has been filled with injuries, though none was worse than the testicular cancer he dealt with last season. Taillon wasn’t himself, but he pitched through it admirably and has the tools to vastly improve last year’s numbers. If people only look at the end line, he’ll fall late in drafts. Don’t look at his numbers from 2017 – check 2016 instead. That’s more of what you can expect, and that’s very useful. One of my favorite value picks this year.

Blake Snell TB (K, RR) –If Snell controls his walks, he has the talent to be an elite starter, and the park to help him get there. As it is, he puts way too much guys on for free, which is no way for a pitcher to survive. All the other pieces are here. If he goes undrafted, which is unlikely, and you see the walk rate is down, pounce. The other numbers don’t concern me. I’d almost want him to have poor results and an improved walk rate, you can acquire him for cheap before the turnaround occurs.

Matt Harvey NYM (RR, IR) – Well, now it’s time for a twisty, winding road of love and hate. Oh Matt, what could have been?

Harvey has not been the same since 2015, and after thoracic outlet syndrome his career is at a crossroad. Part of Harvey’s problem is that he’s always been a thrower, and never a pitcher. This means he relies on overpowering batters, and without elite stuff, he’s a batting practice pitcher. He still has well above average velocity, and the potential for four good pitches, but he just doesn’t know where the stuff is going. Now, there’s hope that Harvey puts it together. Pitchers usually bounce back in their second year from the recovery, even if they never return to 100%. Unfortunately, we though that about Harvey in 2016 after Tommy John, and that didn’t work out, now did it? In the last round, Harvey makes sense. If anyone will recover, it should be him. At worse, he just needs to learn how to pitch. That sounds dumber than it really is.

Kenta Maeda LAD– Maeda is a good pitcher who’s been a source of K’s since his MLB debut. I just don’t know what his role on the Dodgers will be. He should be one of their five best pitchers, but with the depth the team has, they may choose to leave him in the pen, where he dominated from in the postseason. Even if he does make the rotation his turn will get skipped and he may find himself on the 10 day DL with a phantom injury to keep him fresh. Like many others, he’s valuable per start, but not nearly as much for the full season.

 

Untapped Potential Tier

Sean Manaea OAK (RR) – What exactly does Manena do at an elite level that should make him a key component to our fantasy teams? He puts up a near 4.00 ERA in Oakland, a notorious pitcher’s park. He doesn’t strike out guys at an elite level, and his pitch make up is fine, except for a below average fastball. Why does everywhere have this guy in their top 40? Because they are a fan of vowels? At the back-end of the draft, Manaea makes sense. He’s still young and can grow. Don’t let him me your #3 pitcher or something though.

Kevin Gausman  BAL (K, RR) – Gausman drew the ire of plenty of fantasy players when he tanked the first half of the season to Harveyian levels, unable to get anybody out. However, his second half was actually pretty good. Perhaps he corrected his ailments, but this isn’t the first time people have been disappointed in Gausman. He’s a decent back-end of the rotation guy, but I’d stop hoping for more than that unless he gets traded. Baltimore could have a fire sale.

Patrick Corbin ARI(K, RR, IR) – I feel like every year I fall for Corbin hype, but this year could be the year… again. He posts a good K rate and his home ball park should become a little easier to pitch at. He had a brutal 2016 but recovered to the tune of a full run less. Only problem is that was still over four. He also throws sliders about 50% of the time, an obscene number of a reliever, let alone a starter. He outs far too many guys on base, but as long as his arm is attached, he’ll delivered strikeouts. He’ll never be elite though.

Vince Valasquez PHI (K, RR, IR) – All Valasquez does is get hurt. He loves it. He feels home at the operating table and in the rehabilitation clinic. When he is on the field, he provides elite strikeouts, but not much else. His command isn’t polished and he plays in a sandbox. I like the potential here, but he’s unreliable beyond 10 starts a season.

 

Veteran Presence Tier

Ervin Santana MIN (WH) – Santana began the 2017 season on fire, going as far as to earn himself an All Star Game nod. Nobody in the entire world believe this to be legit. He began to unravel in the second half, but his end line looks good. Don’t fall for the trap. He doesn’t strike out anybody and starts the year at 35. He’s best trait is he’ll throw 200 innings if healthy. The problem is he’s likely out for the first month of the season. I don’t think he’s worth a stash. You can pick him up if he’s healthy and looking good in mid May

CC Sabathia NYY – Let’s give CC his due – he pitched well last year and came up big for the Yankees in the playoffs. Sabathia is no longer the ace he once was, and can implode on any given start. However, he’s still reliable most of the time and he’ll pitch whenever he’s healthy. You’re not going to write home about Sabathia’s stat line, but he’ll probably finish above a lot of people you’d expect him. He’s not cooked yet. He’s not marinating to go back in the oven.

Aaron Sanchez TOR– Sanchez is an interesting case. Last year, he was being drafted as a top 25 pitcher. He never got to show if he’d live to the hype as blister ailments plagued him the whole season. You can throw those results out the window. I don’t think he’ll be as good as he was in 2016, but if he’s healthy, he’s a good pitcher. He won’t wow with K’s, but he’s an elite groundball pitcher who should have success even in Toronto. If the draft room forgets Sanchez, scoop him up. If he struggles, you didn’t invest a lot in him anyway.

Matt Shoemaker LAA– Shoemaker had an injury plagued 2017, ultimately leading in correcting a radial nerve. Report are he’ll be ready to start the season. The Angels are likely to use a six man rotation, likely to try to keep their injure riddled pitchers healthy. I’ve always liked Shoemaker, though looking at his stats, he seems more like a back of the rotation guy. He’s probably a decent last starter, but note he rarely finishes with under 4 ERA.  I think with the extra rest he’ll be solid.

Marco Estrada TOR (RR) – Estrada is a flyball pitcher who plays in Toronto. It’s not a recipe for success, yet for the past few years Estrada has survived, and even thrived at times. Even though his numbers look bleak from 2017, he did right the ship in the second half and was valuable down the stretch. I don’t see really any upside here and any success is spitting in the face of advanced metrics. I’d rather have upside at this point in the draft.

No Defined Role Tier

Brad Peacock HOU (K) –Peacock actually had a better strikeout rate than Charlie Morton, although with a worse walk rate. Peacock was a surprising find for the Astros as he struggled for most of his career before that. He seems more likely to hit the pen than Morton since he was used more as a swing man after Justin Verlander joined the team. Still, he would be useful as a starter and makes a great streaming candidate. If he’s named a starter over Morton, which is possible, draft him late instead. If you could draft Charad Mortcock, you’d definitely have a fantasy ace. Alas, fusion is reserved for Dragon Ball Z, so you’re stuck picking one or the other… For now.

Lance Lynn MIN (WH) – One of Lynn’s biggest issue is that he’s failed to sign with a team. Having an employee is key for fantasy success. Even last year, his stats look good, but he’s was kind of awful. He had a .244 BABIP which is pure luck. He also had a poor strikeout rate. I do think he’s a good pitcher, and on the right team, he’ll be pretty good, but don’t pay for last year’s numbers. He could return to his normal skill set and still have worse numbers. The luck gods are fickle.

Jake Odorizzi MIN– I’ve been on the Odorizzi bandwagon for a few years now, but I’m hopping off now. He just seems like a guy. He had pretty solid ERAs the past few seasons, but that’s partial from playing in a good park. His strikeout rate is middling and he gives up a lot of home runs. Now that he’s playing for Minnesota, the homers might even increase over the 59 he’s allowed in the last two seasons. He’s streamable, but I don’t think much else.

Jordan Montgomery NYY– Montgomery had a fine rookie year in Yankee stadium but he does have one trait that worries me. His fastball sucks hard. It seems all his second offerings are good to plus pitches, but teams tattooed his fastball. The only way secondary offerings work is if the pitcher’s main offering is good enough that the secondary pitches are deceptive. Nobody makes a living throwing 75 changeups a game. He also pitches in a bad environment for homers. Hopefully his fastball improves, because I don’t think he’ll repeat his rookie year without it.

 

Boring Old Guys Tier

Felix Hernandez SEA (IR) – I don’t know what else to pay other than this guy is done. His velocity is incredibly down. He seems to get injured all the time. His walk rate continues to rise. If you draft Hernandez, it’s either because of name value or hoping for a bounce back. Don’t waste your time on either.

Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD(IR) – Ryu is a decent enough pitcher, but I only think he’ll make about 1-12 starts this season. It’s partly because he’s always injured, but mostly because the Dodgers are stacked with pitching options. Ryu, to me, seems like the odd man out. He is a name to monitor though, since Dodger pitchers will be hurt, whether it’s legit, or “injured” leading to DL stints. Ryu will get to pick up those starts… Unless he is on the DL at that time. It’s a 50-50 shot.

Chad Khul PIT (RR) – Khul’s strikeout rate spiked as he began throwing harder last year. Khul is only 25 and I assumed he was 36, probably because his name sounds boring. Is that Ageist? That might be ageist. Anyway, with this spike is velocity he also spiked his walk rate. The WHIP was pretty brutal and the team isn’t very good. Overall, this is a low ceiling player.

Mike Leake SEA (WH, C) – Leake gives you impeccable control and that’s about it. There is no strikeout potential here, and you’re relying on consistently hitting spots for results. This can work – not every pitcher needs to average a strikeout per inning. We’ve seen Leake fail at this in the past though. The pluses for Leake is that he’s a workhorse, especially in the modern era, and nobody will want him. His ceiling in about knee high, but he’s usually solid. If you need stability, there’s worse choices than Leake, though at this point, you should be drafting for darts on the board.

 

They used to be exciting tier

Steven Matz NYM (K, IR) – If Matz could stay healthy and make 30 starts, I’d guarantee a top 20 finish at the position, over a strikeout per inning and maybe a CY Young vote or two. Reality hasn’t been so kind to Matz, and he has suffered through every injury doctors can named, and a few they can’t. I don’t expect Matz to make those 30 starts, but I still think he’ll be useful when he’s healthy, despite his brutal spring. It’s just a question of how often. I’m hoping for 30, of course, but I expect somewhere in the teens. If Matz has 8-10 good starts in a row, look to deal him. The injury is unfortunately coming.

Andrew Heaney LAA(IR) – The former top prospect, the only thing he’s topped pitching lists in recent years is DL stints. Heaney recently recovered from Tommy John surgery and pitched in September last year, showing recovered velocity. Since the Angels will likely go to a six man rotation, there’s a shot Heaney stays healthy. He has a good park and a good pedigree, so I like him as a sleeper. I think I low-key like the Angels this season. That’s not good for anyone.

Miles Mikolas STL – There’s something about a pitcher leaving the States and pitching in a foreign league that’s exciting. Sure, it means they couldn’t cut it as an American prospect, but who are you to judge? Did you cut it as a prospect? I didn’t think so. Mikolas had incredibly control in Japan, so expect more of that here. He won’t blow his fast ball by people, but he can induce soft contact. I anticipate he’ll be a nice back of the rotation piece for Fantasy purposes.

Danny Salazar CLE (K, RR, IR) – I’m going to sit here and write that there’s no way I would ever draft Salazar again. He’s always on the DL, and whenever he shows his ace potential, he immediately goes wild, gets lit up and sometimes dropped from the rotation. But boy does he strike out a lot of guys. And if he puts together a full season, the end result would be electric. He’s not consistent, far from it, but only a handful of pitchers on Salazars level when he’s pitching his best. There is talk of him going to the bullpen, but I see the Indians giving him one more chance to start.

 

Prospects Tier –

Here’s it’s just all about your preference. Originally, I had Brent Honeywell as my #1 prospect, but it was not meant to be. I’m only writing one sentence each on these guys. I’ve given enough pitching rankings for a 30 man league at this point.

Michael Kopech CWS (K) – He has the clearest path to the majors and not a lot of competition. The minor league rate is absurd.

Luis Gohara ATL – A highly touted lefty in the Braves’ organizations, if Gohara didn’t suffer an ankle injury, he could have made the opening day roster. He should be up early and contribute right away. There’s no competition for a spot in the rotation now.

Alex Reyes STL (K, IR) – He’s recovering from Tommy john so there’s a change he’s only a reliever this year, possibly the closer, once he’s called up. He is an elite prospect.

Lucas Giolito CWS (RR) – He’s a bit overrated due to his year ending on a high note, but his peripherals didn’t match up. He’s still worth a pick up, but I think Kopech has a higher ceiling.

Reynado Lopez CWS (RR) – Lot of White Sox on this list. Lopez actually has been horrible in the majors, but he should get all the chances in the world.

Tyler Glasnow PIT (RR) – Once an elite prospect, Glasnow’s future is not so assured. He almost walked as many batters as he struck out last year and was sent back to the minors. He was dominant in the minors though, so a career revival could be coming.

Andrew Triggs OAK– The best thing going for trigs is that he pitches in Oakland. The worst thing going for him is he hasn’t done shit with that advantage.

Zack Wheeler NYM (RR, IR) – Looking to be a bullpen arm, Wheeler never could get over all his injuries and his walk rate. He’ll likely make some starts due to injuries about him (he is a Met after all), but he’s not one to count on. Even out of the pen he might wreck your WHIP.

AJ Puk OAK (K) – He’s very young still, but Puk’s strikeout rate in the minors was gaudy and the A’s don’t have much in the way of him making the majors. He’s probably more of a 2019 guy, but he could be a fantasy star.

AJ Cole WAS (RR) – He didn’t have a great debut year, but he’s on a team built to win now and if he’s one of their five best pitchers, he will be on the mound. He lets too many guys on base last year.

Jharel Cotton OAK (RR) – A popular sleeper for 2017, Cotton flopped hard. He possesses one of the best change-ups in all of baseball, but he needs better command and faster to become fantasy relevant.