2018 Fantasy Relief Pitcher Preview or The Cherry on Top

One thing I’ve never understood is the cherry on top of an ice cream Sundae. It’s an iconic addition to the dessert – no sundae is complete with the ice cream, fudge, whipped cream and the cherry. Sometimes they add two cherries, but that pretentious. There’s no need for more than one other than to stand out as being “the cherry sundae”. That’s not what you want to be known as.

I think my biggest question is what’s the point? Here you have a mound of ice cream, whipped cream and hot fudge, food packed to the brim with fat and sugar. There’s no countering that with something fresh, and let me tell you, the cherry on top of the sundae is not fresh. Typically it comes from a jar and has been sweetened, so I guess it fits with the dessert after all.

It also fails to cover more than one bite of ice cream. The cherry sometimes gets eaten on its own, and even if it doesn’t will only last for one bite. Tell me then, what’s the point?

The argument for the cherry is that one bite is the best bite of the entire dessert. The cherry complements the other flavors perfectly. This makes the cherry stand out beyond anything else, and takes a 9/10 dessert over to a ten. But if that’s the case, why don’t they cover their sundaes in cherries? It really doesn’t make any sense.

The obvious answer is nobody’s going to bother eating a shit ton of cherries when they could just have ice cream instead. I mean, are you really going to eat kale when you have a delicious steak? Maybe if you live in Brooklyn, but otherwise probably not.

There’s a point to all of this rambling, I think. In fantasy baseball drafts, there’s a ton of attention paid to Relief Pitchers. Since Saves are such a big factor in these leagues, they need to have special attention paid to them. You’ll need to draft at least two relief pitchers for a standard fantasy league, whether it’s roto, head to head or points. And naturally, they are overrated like crazy.

People will draft closers early and often. And the first few closers off the board are safe. They’ll provide great ratios and high save totals. They won’t throw more than 70 innings (hold that thought), but they will provide the necessary stats to help your roster. As the draft goes, the pitchers will get shakier and shakier. They won’t have good ratios, but they’ll still close, and therefore, drafters will jump over each other to grab them. I don’t know what looks more attractive to fantasy drafters, prospects, closers or tight ends, but I imagine in their minds, they’re all swimsuit models.

Every year, nearly 50% of the closers on opening day will lose their jobs, whether it be due to ineffectiveness or injury. Even a high-end closer isn’t a lock for anything. These pitchers should be considered afterthoughts in your draft, but instead, prime draft capital is used on them. That’s fantastic news for you. Your overall roster will look better for all of these waster closer picks. Of course, not every closer is a bust, but the best ones require such a high draft capital, you’ll make a profit just by not taking them. It’s truly win win.

Consider closers the fantasy cherry – a nice addition to an otherwise complete dessert. You do not need an elite closer to win a fantasy league.

Let me type that again, this time with more fancy word effects.

You do not need an elite closer to win a fantasy league.

If it doesn’t stick with you now, that’s on you.

My strategy for relief pitchers is to draft my first closer around round 12 or so. Sometimes I’ll go as high as round ten, and sometimes I’ll wait. You have to react to the room. While you don’t want to reach on a closer, you don’t want to get shut out either, as that would be bad. You’ll want to have at least one closer who will be relatively safe, and then you’re second can be more of a risk.

I like to balance my selection between opportunity and talent. Plenty of closers are elite pitchers, but won’t get as many opportunities as a middling option on an elite team. Still, saves are fluky, and no matter how good the team and pitchers are, you can never guarantee opportunities. That’s why you want to make sure you’re drafting a talented pitcher as opposed to just picking the closer on the best teams (Don’t get me wrong, that can be effective, just riskier).

What I like to look for in relief pitchers is a high k per 9. Just a strikeout per inning isn’t all that elite for relievers anymore. You want somewhere in the 11-12 range. Bullpen arms are throwing harder than ever, so high k’s not only keeps pace at the position, it’ll give you a boost for your overall staff. Those five-six saves from each reliever per week will absolutely make a difference, so don’t shy away from strikeouts.

You also want to make sure your pitcher has decent control and avoids the HR ball. All reliever sample sizes are small, so these ratios are very important. A reliever who has a bad week might ruin his ratio for the entire year. If you’re in a head to head or points league, tht’s one week of many. But in a roto league, you could suffer from those ratios for months. Wild pitchers are the most frustrating in all of fantasy, so don’t stack closers that can’t find the plate at times.

Depending on what your format are, elite middle relievers have significant value. If you’re in a daily league that has no cap on transactions, consider loading up on middle relievers. They will provide K’s, wins (since they get used in high leverage situations, like tied games), and will vulture the occasional save. But their biggest contribution is their stabilizing ratios.

Mangers are getting smarter and realize that the save is a dumb, archaic stat. Now, not every team is that smart, but some are getting there. Saves were invented to get relievers money. You get the same credit for closing out a one run game against the heart of the order as you do strikeout out the bottom third with a three run lead. That’s dumb. There’s even a rule that if you pitch three innings in a win, no matter the score, the pitcher gets a save. Who invented that? Saves need to be removed from baseball in place of something else.

Don’t say holds. Holds suck just as much.

Anyway, smart managers are using their best reliever as a flex pitcher – one who might pitch two innings in a close game, or could come in a base loaded jam in the sixth. They are called upon to get the tough outs. Then, the second best reliever is named the closer and gets the glory. Personally, there’s a few middle relievers that might be better than all by the top 2 closers. I’ve given them their own tier. Even in leagues where saves are essential, there comes a point where I’d rather balance out the ratios with these guys than take a risk at the closer.

What I’ve done for this preview is rank the 30 team’s closers, and a few elite middle relief guys. I’m not going to go in-depth like the other positions, because again, this is the fantasy cherry. They don’t deserve the review like the other positions. I’ll give a brief write-up of each, and give my guess on who will be the leader in saves on the team, assuming no trades.

Note there is a risk with drafting closers on a bad team as they could get traded, but don’t think about that in March. Worry about that in July as the season goes on.

If there’s any positions to monitor in season, it’s relief pitcher. New closers will appear, so if you wait on them like I suggest, you’ll be able to add closers and bolster that total. The bidding on this position will be aggressive, so try to beat people to the punch. If you see a closer struggle for a few outings, pick uo the pitcher waiting in the wings. Trust me, it’s better than blowing 40% of the FAAB for someone who might lose the job a week later.

No, it’s not a fun position, but hey, if you didn’t want to be frustrated and have to try, stick with fantasy football.

 

Way Overpriced tier

Kenley Jansen LAD – There’s not much to say about Jansen. He walked 7 batters in 68 innings, struck out over 100, and had a WHIP of .75. There’s no one better in the business, but his price tag is too high, even with his gaudy numbers and ratios.

Craig Kimbrel BOS – Kimbrel might have actually had a stronger year than Jansen, striking out 126 in 69 innings. Walks, which were an issue in 2016  were minimal and his .68 WHIP is remarkable. He’ll regress a bit, but you can expect elite numbers from Kimbrel in 2018. You just have to pay for them.

 

Without Questioned Closers… right? tier

Aroldis Chapman NYY – Even the game’s best aren’t immune from issues. Chapman actually lost the closer’s gig for a while last season, and his K rate over the past three years have gone from out of this world to merely great. Chapman might have just had a down year, but I think the beginning of the end is near. He’s no longer a top-tier closer, and if he struggles, the Yankees have four options to take the role. Be careful with him.

Roberto Osuna TOR – Despite Osuna’s shaky numbers, advanced metrics list him as the third best closer last season. He has a starter’s arsenal, and a reliever’s ratios. Other than a pretty bad team, there’s nothing to shy away from. If people avoid Osuna due to last year’s numbers, jump in and take advantage. The dude’s WHIP was .86.

Edwin Diaz SEA – Walks nearly unrivaled Diaz’s season, as he walked 32 in only 66 innings. That’s far too many for an elite closer. However, he has great strikeout rates and if he corrects his walks, he could even jump up a tier.

Ken Giles HOU – The positives are that Giles throws heat and has the K’s to be an elite option. He also plays on the defending champs, so the opportunities will be there. The problem is he struggled mightily in the postseason, and might only be the 3^rd or 4^th best reliever on the roster. I don’t think he’s the safest play, but for now, he’ll be closing. His numbers in the regular season were very, very good.

Rasiel Iglesias CIN – Other than a walk rate that’s a tad too high, Iglesias is an elite closer who has everything going for him but a good team. I have no problem making Iglesias my first closer, especially since he usually comes at a fair price. Being part of a bad team doesn’t mean there won’t be a ton of save opportunities, so I expect Iglesias to be borderline elite again.

 

Winning Teams Tier

 

Cody Allen CLE – Allen has good ratios, great K’s and plays for a competitive team. The problem is he always has Andrew Miller looming. Miller is a significantly better pitcher, but Allen will remain the closer to keep Miller as the team’s chess piece. He should hit the 30-35 save ratio.

Wade Davis COL – Davis remains one of the most elite closers in baseball, but now becomes the closer in Colorado. One of Davis’ best skills is avoiding the home run ball, which is going to be key. If he keeps the homers in check, he’ll still be elite. I think he’s worthy of being a fantasy team’s number one closer.

Sean Doolittle WAS – Doolittle turned a very good year in 2017 and should have a bunch of save opportunities for one of the favorites in the National League. The strikeout rate is not elite but his biggest problems is injures If he stays healthy, he’s a lock as a top 10 option.

Brandon Morrow CHC – Honestly, Morrow should have tried to convert to a reliever years ago. He could never stay healthy as a starter but he was elite in the pun. Now, moving to Chicago, he gets to close on one of the best teams in baseball. As long as he stays healthy, he should be excellent. That’s a big if of course.

 

Good pitchers, bad team tier

 

Brad Hand SD – Hand has put together two elite seasons in the Padres’ pen, totaling over 100 strikeouts on consecutive years, a sub .300 ERA, and a WHIP around one. The Padres won’t be great, but they should be ok, and there’s nothing to suggest Hand won’t be elite again.

Corey Knebel MIL- Knebel’s numbers kind of scare me off. His 126 Ks were more than the last two years combined, and the rate shot up to near unsustainable levels. He might be a very good pitcher, but this feels like an outlier season. Fun fact, he has elbow issues in his past. Sounds like a pleasure to own.

 

Felipe Rivero PIT – Rivero has had two years of dominant results out of three. He’s a lefty, so they usually don’t stick in the closer role. He’s good enough to be dominant, especially now that he’s added velocity. The biggest concern is him getting traded to a contender, but there’s no need to worry about it in April.

 

Saves are a stat, yes tier

 

Alex Colome TB – Not an elite K guy, it was actually Colome who led the league in saves despite playing on a mediocre Rays team. Colome’s ratios were iffy last year and his walk ratio is kind of high. He’s a play for saves and little else. There’s more skilled pitchers going after him.

Hector Neris PHI – Neris is a fireball reliever who could put close to 100 Ks, and the team looks to be improving. The opportunities should be there and there’s nobody else in the pen that would threaten Neris. He gave up more hits last year in less innings so it’s something to keep in mind. I think he’ll be fine though.

Kelvin Herrera KC – Herrera went from elite set up fire baller, to mediocre at best closer. He didn’t strikeout a batter per inning, and managed a 4.25 ERA. Still, I believe this is a skilled pitcher, and should be primed for a bounce back. He could definitely get traded to a contender though.

Blake Treinen OAK – Treinen’s strikeout rate is a bit low for a closer, though it’s still around a strikeout per inning. He gives up far too many hits to be an elite option but he minimizing homers and pitched much better when he got to Oakland. He’s at least safe-ish, but his ratios won’t be great.

 

Lethal Pitchers, no saves tier

Andrew Miller CLE – Miller might be the best relief pitcher in baseball. He strikes out nearly 1.5 batters per inning, has a sub 1 WHIP and an ERA around 1.50. He usually grabs a couple of saves along the way and should chip in a few wins. How isn’t Miller worthy of a pick in every league?

Chad Green NYY – Green took a huge step forward and was so dominant in middle relief he was getting looked at to be the Yankee’s 5^th starter. He shouldn’t leave the pen as he was lights out last year. Sure, this was his first year as a dominant relief, but players don’t put up his kind of numbers without having serious skills. If Chapman falters, I’d expect Green, not Robertson or Betances, would get the first crack at the role.

Dellin Betances NYY – Betances walks far too many guys. Last year, it was 44 in about 60 innings. That’s completely unacceptable. However, everything else was still elite. He’ll be good 100 Ks and usable ratios. He’s no longer the top non closer in baseball, but he’s still pretty damn good.

Chris Devenski HOU – Devenski is the Astros’ best reliever. With an amazing change-up, he’s provided over 100 strikeouts in relief for to straight years. Deveniski’s K per 9 were way up last year, though he had some problems with homers. Still his .94 WHIP is incredible. He’ll be plenty useful.

Archie Bradley ARI – In his first year as a bull pen arm, Bradley was a force. Though his strikeouts were low for an elite reliever, he kept his full arsenal from his starting days, giving him plenty of options compared to most relievers. Bradley could be the Diamondback’s closer, but I think they prefer him in this role. It suits him better.

Josh Hader MIL – Hader really should be in the Brewer’s rotation, but as of today, he’s still going to be in the pen. Hader’s control is questionable at best, but the strikeouts are legit and he’s got the potential for more. He could wind up as the closer, or in the rotation. Either would be better for his potential. I wouldn’t hate a last round flier in case he claims one of the roles.

 

Who’s got the role, tier?

Mark Melancon SF (Sam Dyson) – Melancon isn’t anything special, but really, who else is closing on this roster? His strikeouts are poor, but he relies on an elite ground ball rate. It’s not a fluke that he had a sub 1 WHIP in 2015 and 2016. He’s a good, middling option. Sam Dyson had a 6.09 ERA and a .177 WHIP. Part of that was a result of a horrible start, but he still had a 4.03 ERA in San Francisco last year. Would you let him close? I don’t think so.

Dominic Leone STL (Luke Gregerson, Alex Reyes) Leone had a jump up year where all of his stats appear to be outliers. I don’t trust him, but he’s likely the best pitcher available in April to close. Gregerson is just a journeyman who is best suited for middle relief. Even if he is named the closer, I don’t have faith he’ll keep the role. Reyes is the Cardinals prized prospect recovering from Tommy John. I could see them using him in relief to ease him back to the majors. Reyes is who I’d like to see lose from June on and would be an automatic add. Keep your eyes on him.

Yoshihisa Hirano ARI – This is more of my gut than anything, but I expect Hirano to be named the closer. This isn’t the best news in the world as Hirano’s strikeout rate declined in three straight years in Japan. I don’t know how effective he’ll be in the majors, but typically, imports get a boost in k rate for the first year. He might be decent, but nothing more than a late option as the job isn’t necessarily his.

Jeurys Familia NYM (AJ Ramos) – Familia’s numbers were not very good last year, but they were inflated by several appearances but he seemed to right the ship in September. He’s a decent strikeout pitcher, but his strength is in his ground ball rate. He should be the team’s closer for most of the year. Ramos was a former closer who had an off-year in 2017. He’s a threat to take saves from Familia, but the team wants Familia to be the closer. Don’t listen to the talk, if Familia is healthy and pitching well, he’ll be the sole option.

Shane Green DET – Green was actually a very good pitcher last year, but he walks far too many people. Detroit is not going to be a strong team, so the opportunities might be rare. He also was pretty awful the two previous years, so he’s not a strong candidate to keep the role all season.

Brad Brach BAL (Zach Britton) – Brach had an excellent year in 2017, inflating by a poor final outing. Still, his 3.18 ERA isn’t so bad, and the previous two years he finished below three. Brach usually pitches 80 innings, and his strikeouts aren’t elite, but it may change as the full-time closer. Britton, actually pitched admirably last year considering his injuries, and his 2016 is the stuff of legends. He should take the role back, but who knows when that will be. Still, it’s likely either of these guys will be traded, if not both. Brach should be good until Britton gets the role back, or gets traded to a contender to set up.

Arodys Vizcaino ATL – Vizcaino throws extremely hard and has his control issues solved. The Braves are also now competing, which means the opportunities could be there. He’s not the heathiest of pitchers though, so I don’t see him as a guaranteed closer. If he’s healthy, he should keep the job.

 

Fernando Rodney Tier – This is a tier where the pitcher technically gets saves, despite the fact you feel violently ill while watching them pitch. I mean, sure, you’ll get a save, but probably with a 2.25 WHIP

 

Fernando Rodney MIN – Every damn year, Rodney tricks a team into being a closer. And for at least a month, Rodney is shit, walking everyone, giving up homers, and blowing saves as though it’ll prolong his life. But then, by years end, he’s among the league leader in the stat, and his final line doesn’t look so bad… if you squint. Or look at another person’s line. He walks far too many guys, gets hit a lot, and taunts with the best of them. Draft with a queasy stomach and look away from the chat box.

Alex Claudio TEX (Keone Kela) – Claudio is really a lefty specialist who found himself in the closer role by chance. He’s not someone you want to rely on and I doubt he keeps the job very long as all. Meanwhile, Kela has elite skills and only gave up 18 hits in 38 innings. He also walked 17, which is far too high, but he has elite strikeout potential. I’d much rather outright draft Kela and he should be the closer by June.

Cam Bedrosian LAA (Blake Parker) – Part of Bedrosian’s bad numbers are due to his final appearance of the year, where he gave up five runs without recording an out. He was injured last year, so I wouldn’t take too much stock into it. In 2016, Bedrosian had an 1.12 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He’s not elite, but there’s some talent here. Parker had an elite season, but it seems the Angels want to use him as their Chess piece. For fantasy, I’d rather see Parker, but in real life, Bedrosian makes more sense as it frees Parker to do the important things. We’ll see how it plays out.

Joakim Soria CHW (Nate Jones) – Soria was secretly awesome in 2017, and most of his run allowed came in a handful of appearances. All his numbers are in line with an elite closer. If Jones came into 2018 off a healthy year, he’d be the closer. He has everything you could look for in an elite reliever. This one is a toss-up and I think it depends how Soria performs while Jones gets back up to speed.

Kyle Barraclough MIA (Brad Ziegler) – Barracough has a monster strikeout rate, but is painfully wild and the WHIP could be troubling. He’s also the man waiting in the wings. Brad Ziegler is currently the closer. The only thing Ziegler is capable of closing is a door, so Barraclough should get the nod sooner than later. Still, this team isn’t going to be competitive, making both options sub par.