The New York Baseball Mets

New York Mets 2019 Preview – First Base

March 17, 2019 By Bloggin Hood
First base is a position where one of the team’s best hitters usually resides. Typically a lefty, a lot of poor fielders play first to keep their bats in the lineup and their glove out of the way. Don’t tell this to Keith Hernandez though. If you do, you’ll hear a impassioned speech about the fundies for about 3 innings.
To be fair, even if you don’t mention it, Keith will still give you the same speech.
The Mets’ solution to the first baseman puzzle has traditional been to sign declining veterans for an absorbent amount of money. I remember back in the early 2000s, the Mets signed Mo Vaughn. In the Subway series, Vaughn hit the longest homer I’ve ever seen. The ball was traveling upwards when it bounced off the scoreboard. Excited, I shouted that the Mets were on their way back to the World Series. From that point, the Mets lost an estimated 37 games in a row and Vaughn never played well again. Good call there Bloggin Hood.
A word of advice to the GMs, if you’ll let me. If a player is out of shape before signing a contract, think about what he’ll look like after getting paid. Vaughn didn’t strike me as a gym rat. He wasn’t once kicked out of an all you can eat buffet for bringing a bar of soap and asking for extra moist towelettes though. Basically, the same team.
In recent times, the Mets changed their strategy. 2018 saw the Mets try to sign declining veterans for a discount – a noble strategy. I don’t blame you if you’ve forgotten that Adrian Gonzalez was the starting 1B last season. It was truly a dreadful run. For the first two weeks, he held his own. Unfortunately, baseball is a 6 month sport. Gonzalez was off the team well before the All Star break. But hey, at least the Wilpons save some money. Let’s hear it for them!
After A-Gon fizzled, the Mets played younger, but equally washed up players. At least Gonzalez has a very nice career. His replacements – Todd Frazier and Jay Booce, have not. Much like catcher, 1B became a black hole for offense.
You’ll find that is the theme of 2018.
Toward the end of the year, fans cried for Peter “Call me Pete” Alonso to make his debut. Rising out of nowhere, Alonso was crushing minor league pitching. He rose to a top 40 prospect ranking and became the Mets only major league ready talent. While the Mets had no need to burn service time, certainly Alonso would get a look in September on a flailing, uncompetitive team.
Oh, they chose Dominic Smith over him? Alonso never cracked the major leagues despite hitting 38 homers in 2018? Oh, ok, that doesn’t make me want to drink a glass of bleach at all.
Smith, formerly a prospect at Alonso’s current level, did absolutely nothing in his audition. In a mere 2 years, Smith went from a sure-fire answer, to bitter disappointment. Fans turned on him faster than Mike Hampton when he bolted for Colorado “for the schools”. Hold that thought for a minute.
This year, first base is the most exciting competition in Mets camp. With BVW on record that the Mets will start the best option opening day, fans assume Alonso will be the guy. This is of course, silly. The Mets would be ridiculous to not send Alonso down to avoid starting his service clock. By waiting roughly 2 weeks into the season to give him the call, the Mets get another year of team control.
I’m not saying I agree with this, but the rules make it painfully obvious it’s what they should do. Baseball has a lot of dumb rules but service time is by far the dumbest. It’s like listening to Skip Baylee’s and Shannon Sharpe talk about ecominic policy. Still, if that’s the rule, there’s need to take advantage of it.
The favorite for April at bats was Todd Frazier. Just writing that sentence made me scream internally as I write this on the Light Rail. People are giving me funny looks.
However, Frazier’s oblique injury has opened the door for another player to battle Alonso. Of all people, it’s Dominic Smith. Maybe teams shouldn’t give up on a former top prospect after 300 At bats.
Both players have been hitting out of their minds in Spring Training. While the preseason doesn’t typically matter, this is a huge battle for the Mets future. Who will win? And truthfully, does it matter?
Let’s find out on today’s first base preview.

Pete Alonso – (RHB)

Career (Minors) – .290/.381/.560

59 HR in 1090 At Bats. 36 HRS in 2018.

Spring Training – .356/.396/.644

7 extra base hits in 45 at bats.

There’s not much more Alonso can do to prove he belongs. He is crushing baseballs in Spring Training and getting rave reviews. Alex Cora called Alonso the best hitter on Florida right now. I don’t know if that’s a compliment. Have you seen the Marlins and Rays lineups?

Oh, he meant in Spring Training. That is a big compliment.

His spring has 7 extra base hits already, and while he hasn’t walked much, you can understand his aggression. Alonso wants to make the team. His minor league history shows a willingness to walk, so I don’t worry about his patience long-term.

The strikeouts are another story. Alonso does have the tendency to chase. Major league pitching will take advantage of this. There will be struggles during the 2019 season – I love Alonso, but he’s not Mike Trout. I can’t predict his average, because he could be all over the map with his Ks. In his young career, Alonso hasn’t met a breaking ball he won’t whiff at.

However, the power seems real. Alonso is built like a brick house. This was confirmed when Josh Reddick collided with Alonso on a play to first. Reddick went down in a heap while Alonso barely staggered. Fortunately, both seem to be ok.

If Alonso plays for most of the year, 30 Homers is absolutely possible. On a team starved for power, this is essential.

The other, dirtier secret about Alonso? The Mets 5 best hitters are all lefties. Typically first baseman bat lefty, but Alonso is right-handed. This works to his advantage. For lineup balance alone, Alonso should have any tie breakers. Don’t underestimate this – an unbalanced lineup is not a successful one.

Prediction: Alonso will be sent down to  the minors for “seasoning”, conveniently returning the second his service time is extended a year. He’ll be the starting first baseman by May 1. He gives the Mets the best chance to win, both this year and beyond. I’ll peg him for a .250 average and 25 homers, but he has the potential for more.

Dominick Smith – (LHB)

Career Majors – .210/.259/.406 in 310 At Bats.

Career Minors – .296/.361/.426 in 2,368 At Bats.

Spring Training – .400/.462/.543

3 extra base hits in 35 at bats.

Originally, Smith was going to be the token addition at the end of this write-up. I was going to play up the afterthought angle. Smith’s play scraped that idea.

And you know what? Good for him. Smith’s career was at a crossroads and instead of giving up, he’s worked hard and has had an awesome spring. But, much like Alonso, this is just spring. It’s great to see both guys crush, but it’s not real MLB action. Let’s not anoint either guy for a week’s worth of plate appearances.

Smith’s biggest knock as a hitter was the lack of power. His minor league career shows a good average, but little pop. When Smith came up, I thought he put on weight to add power. That didn’t translate at all. In fact, during his two stints, nothing offensively translated. However, 300 at bats shouldn’t define a career. Plenty of good players struggled in their initial call ups.

Even with his hot start, the power hasn’t developed. He only has 3 extra base hits in the spring. He’s not in the same tier as Alonso there. On a team thirsty for power, I don’t think Smith can play everyday.

Also, I brought up Mo Vaughn for a reason. Smith being out of shape concerns me. Look, I’m not body shaming. Nobody enjoys a plate of mini hot dogs more than Bloggin Hood. But when your body is your career, you should be in shape. I don’t think this is unreasonable.

Prediction: I do believe Smith will contribute to the team this year, but off the bench. The Mets don’t need another everyday lefty bat and Alonso’s pop is a necessity. Smith probably starts the year at first until Alonso gets the call. If he absolutely crushes it, maybe he keeps the job, but it would take a hell of a start.

Also, no, I don’t think they trade Smith. His value isn’t high enough for that.

Todd Frazier (RHB)

Career – .242/.319/.451,

2018 – .213/.303/.390 in 115 games.

Struck out 112 times in 408 at bats.

Injury – Oblique strain. Status for Opening day in question

Todd Frazier seems like a nice, genuine guy. I don’t have anything against him as a person. But as a baseball player, I have a list of grievances. The most important of these – Frazier isn’t good at baseball anymore.

Over the last few seasons, Frazier has devolved to an all or nothing hotter. His average bottomed out toward the Mendoza line. If Frazier was a 40 HR player with plus defense, this would be passable. This is not the case. Frazier’s power has dipped and his defense isn’t what it once was. Basically, you’re getting a guy who gets on base 30% of the time, but strikes out just as much. That’s not ideal.

Frazier’s lauded for his great clubhouse demeanor. I’m all for that. In fact, let’s make it more permanent. Let’s make Frazier a bench coach. It works out for all parties.

Prediction: Frazier plays too often for my liking and continues his middling play. He’ll have several timely hits that will get him extra playing time, but the overall production will be negative.

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