WR Positional Preview or Licensing Gone Wrong

Sometimes even the best ideas don’t work out. But when you have a halfhearted idea because everyone around you is a yes man? Yeah, those ideas never work out, no matter how many people around you snap their necks as a result of furious nodding of their heads. When I think of the king of halfhearted ideas, a game on the Super Nintendo jumps out at me.

In the 90s, nobody had the appeal of Michael Jordan, with the possible exception of Ken Griffey Jr. It’s mind boggling that only 25 years ago, a baseball player could be somewhat on the same tier of famous as the greatest basketball player of all time, but it happened. I think everyone would recognize Griffey,, but if given the choice, most people would want to meet Jordan. As a kid, I’m not sure what my answer would have been, but I think I would have sided with Griffey. I mean, I wore my hat backwards because of him and tried to model my swing after Griffey’s. I wasn’t ever going to be able to model my vertical leap after Jordan, so replicating his game was impossible. Today, the answer is obviously Griffey, who seems like a cool, relatively down to earth guy. Jordan would insult you and then try to make you gamble 5 figures on a game of cards. Jordan is not a good hang.

Both players received self-titled video games in the 90s. Griffey actually got three – all baseball games. While many of you likely remember Griffey’s N64 game, the super Nintendo baseball game was one of my favorite games of all time. For some unknown reason, the games failed to have an MLB license, so other than Griffey, all of the other names were random, themed based on the team’s city or nickname, but had their attributes based on the real life players. Despite Griffey being in the game, I spent most of my time playing as the Mets, who happened to have a clone of Griffey – same stance and everything. Later I found out that the clone was Carl Everett. That was disappointing. Great game though.

So, logically, you’d think Jordan’s tie in would be basketball related, right? Well, that didn’t happen. I mean, basketballs are certainly in the game. But no, you don’t get to play any hoops, and it certainly didn’t have an NBA license. Made during Jordan’s first retirement, Michael Jordan – Chaos in the Windy City was a platforming game where Jordan threw basketballs at his enemies. As a person who rented this game twice from blockbuster, let me tell you, it was somehow worse than it sounded.

The gameplay was a worse Mega Man. Jordan rapidly flung basketballs and could pick up power-ups – the cliché fire and ice projectiles, which of course, were just basketballs. Jordan controlled very poorly, and while he jumped high, the platforming aspects were atrocious. You’d think his air ness would have had better aerial movement. Alas, it was not to be.

Also, the strangest addition was the random basketball hoops that appeared on the stages. If Jordan dunked into one of these hoops, he’d receive items – typically the coin equivalent or some power ups. To dunk, and brace yourself for this one, you had to hit the dunk button. That’s right, the control set up was designed to have a dunk button. To say this game was bad was an understatement. Who in their right mind would design a platforming game that had a dunk button? Maybe it came in use later, as I only ever beat the first couple of levels before being disgusted in myself.

No, I have no defense for have renting it multiple times. That’s 100% on me.

Another hive minded bad idea is the belief that there are plenty of WRs available in fantasy and that you can wait a plethora of rounds to draft one. On some levels this is true. In fact, there’s 5 WRs on every team you can draft, so you won’t have any problems taking one late if you desire. If you’re looking for actual, honest to goodness useable talent though, it’s not a great idea to wait.

The top of the WR tiers are as strong as ever. If you don’t factor in the boom and bust nature of a few of the players, there’s 20 WRs that have a legit case to finish in the top 10, although a few are stretches. This includes the Rams trio, who all make it in the top 20, and I think could finish there. I mean obviously. I wouldn’t have ranked them in the top 20 if I didn’t. From this perspective, yes, the position is deep.

But after those 20, it’s a crap shoot. The next tiers of receiver are gross. You won’t feel good about many of the players. Basically, everyone this year either feels like a WR1, or a WR 3. There’s few, if any WR2s available, and that’s an issue.

Before any of your stat geeks start to type out “Well actually anyone who finishes between 13-24 at the position is WR2” just stop. I get the concept. You know exactly what I’m talking about.

This creates a unique issue in this year’s fantasy draft. You can’t address everything early. You can’t have two top RBs and 2 top WRs unless you’re playing in a four-team league. When you factor in the 3 decent TEs this year, you’re going to have little choice but to sacrifice something. Without giving the TE preview away a day early, I think the way to do it is to only take one of those 3 TEs at a discount. In the first 6 rounds you really want to make sure you have at least 2 RBs and 2WRs. I’d prefer to be 3 and 3, or if I must be unbalanced, lean RB, but I totally understand if you ended up with 4 WRs, especially in a two flex or 3 WR league. Do Not take QB in the first 6 rounds unless it’s like Mahomes in the 6th. It’ll really set you back. Try a few mock drafts and see how you feel about your team. It’s not pretty. Like adding a dunk button to your controller.

This isn’t simply me saying to draft a balanced team. Or to take the best value on the board each round. There’s going to be times where you need to reach for players, especially during the lull of the draft. When the WRs get weak, I would jump on either the RBs that didn’t look so hot a round ago, a TE that might have the chance to be a top 5 option or, maybe swing for the fences on a WR that could break out. There’s plenty that could, just not many guaranteed with talent and opportunity outside of the top 20. Most guys are a gamble this year, and in the past, that wasn’t the case. Instead of higher-ish floors and low upside, we have huge upside and low floors.

You’ll probably have to hit one of these picks to win your league. You know, like the Griffey baseball games. Don’t let your team be a poorly thought out Michael Jordan tie in. And if it has to be a tie in, at least name your team Chaos in the Windy City.

First Round Tier

•             Deandre Hopkins

•             Devante Adams

•             Tyreek Hill

I think Hopkins is the best receiver in the game. He’s been QB proof and matchup proof and is a lock to finish in the top 3 in targets. There’s arguably not a safer player on the board. Don’t think too hard on this one.

The only player who could be argued over Hopkins in Adams, who’s a TD monster who finally added elite yardage to his bottom line. Last year was his full breakout and there’s not a lot of competition for targets. Especially considering the weapons surrounding Adams are suspect (hold that thought), it should be another huge year for him. If you wanted to take Adams over Hopkins, I wouldn’t argue it.

Personally, I won’t be drafting Hill based on the domestic issues surrounding him. There’s unfortunately a lot of players that have this black mark on them, and not just in football. I’m not going to get all preachy and talk morals here, but it’s what I’m going to do. For those just here for fantasy, Hill is worthy of a first-round pick, but the suspension risk remains. Any negative updates will force the NFL’s hand. I would mention that Hill’s long TDs need to regress, but it’s been two years in a row. I don’t think he’ll be quite as lethal as last season but he won’t be far off. You need to pair him with a steady WR 2 though. Hill and Robert Woods is a perfect tandem.

Biggest Game in Town Tier

•             Michael Thomas

•             Julio Jones

•             Odell Beckham Jr

•             Ju Ju Smith-Schuster

•             Mike Evans

Thomas is about as safe as a WR can be. You know he’ll have a ton of targets and in PPR leagues, should be elite with his 7-9 catches nearly every game. You don’t have to worry about the floor. However, there’s not a lot of boom games with a guy like Thomas. Now, I like consistency, especially when it’s this high. If Thomas can score 10 TDs, he’ll be at the very top of the WR list. You just need a little luck to get there. The floor is higher than most receiver’s ceilings.

Ah Julio. If only we played in leagues that didn’t reward TDs. Sadly, that’s not how it works. I have no idea why Julio hates TDs so much. He does everything so well, except crossing a specially designated painted line. Don’t let that scare you off – Julio remains a completely elite WR. Just don’t except the TDs to ever reach the elite level. He’d rolling around at 6-8 at most. But if he ever managed 12… oh man.

I don’t often like WRs going to new teams. There tends to be an adjustment period, and a lot of times the player never reaches his past heights. Now granted, most team changes occur toward the back end of their careers. This is an exception. OBJ is leaving Old Busted Eli Manning for the new hotness – Baker Mania. It would be a huge surprise if Beckham didn’t reach his elite production from the past. I mean, he did it with Eli. But the changing of teams, and the surprising number of weapons in Cleveland, make me a little hesitant when comparing the elites.

The targets won’t be a problem for Ju Ju who should be pepped with targets throughout the year. I do worry about the defenses zoning in on Ju Ju, but in limited samples, he’s done great as the #1 option. I can’t put him in front of the first 6 players, but he should be elite from day one. Perhaps not having Bell or Brown around might improve him. And hey, he’s ranked ahead of Brown here. Good for you Ju Ju. Take that Steelers team MVP to heart.

I don’t know if Mike Evans is a top flight WR, but the opportunity is going to make him one. Even with everyone’s favorite break out selection, Chris Godwin on the roster there’s plenty of targets to go around. In fact, the team only has three viable pas catchers, which is lovely for fantasy. Evans won’t have the elite catch total of other players, but with his TDs falling right, he could finish in the top 5.

On the Cusp of #1 Tier

•             Keenan Allen

•             TY Hilton

•             Stefon Diggs

•             Adam Thielen

•             Antonio Brown

If Melvin Gordon is holding out into the regular season, a phrase I should have really prepared to copy and paste 18 times, Allen will be a monster. He’s not truly a deep threat, but few people have the command of the targets and move the chains quite like Allen. The offense isn’t as elite as in the past, and there’s a lot of end zone threats so the TDs may not be elite. But I’m not sure it matters. This could be a 100 catch, 1300 yard 10 TD season brewing, and the best part is nobody wants to draft Allen anymore. He’s the boring pick. Good. I’ll be the boring guy winning.

Hilton is this tier’s version of Hill, a deep threat who lives off big plays. If you pick Hilton, except that you’re not getting elite TDs. That’s perfectly ok with the amount of yardage Hilton puts up. If he plays 16 games, 1,400 yards is the over under I’d set. Then, even just 6 TDS puts him in the WR 1 conversation, and that’s not outlandish.  The main risk is health, for both him and Luck. If Luck misses any time, Hilton’s stock tanks harder than most players. Keep an eye on the preseason just in case. I dropped him a few spots due to the news about Luck’s ankle Luck, but assuming that’s the truth, Luck shouldn’t miss too much time if he’s out week 1. I just don’t love starting the year with my WR 1 in a tough spot. For the season, Hilton should be awesome, and 14 games of Luck is better than 16 games of most QBs.

My love for Stefon Diggs cannot be overstated. He’s just a very good player who gets disrespected constantly. He’s arguably the best route runner in the league, a point regularly illustrated by Matt Harmon, a fantasy expert who actually knows things. Seriously, read him instead of me. Secondly, this team will be run heavy, but only have 3 potential targets. Digs should see about 140 looks this year. It doesn’t matter if he’s the #1 or #2, he’s not just a deep threat, but also a possession receiver. Last season, he had 100 catches, and nobody considers him a WR1? Stop it. The only fear with Diggs is health. If you got 16 healthy games, he’s an easy top 10 WR.

Most people will remember how on fire Adam Thielen started 2019. While this was true, he ended on a sour note. Most notably, his targets fell off a cliff when the new offensive coordinator took over for the team at the end of the year. Unfortunately, he’s back, which could be bad news for Thielen. I don’t think he’ll be bad – I still ranked him as a borderline WR1, but I’m hesitant to draft him based on last year’s ending. Someone will draft Thielen based on his first 8 weeks instead of the last 8. Let them do so.

Much like with Beckham, my main fear with Antonio Brown was switching teams. Brown didn’t get an upgrade at QB like Beckham, he got a clear downgrade. This may not matter – Brown is likely a top 3 WR still. But then, the weird stuff started happening. He received frostbite on his foot by going into Cryotherapy and the time table is unclear for his return. He’s also threatening to retire if he’s not allowed to wear his old helmet, a request that came completely from left field. I think he might just be an insane person at this point. I don’t think he’s actually going to retire and will be out there week 1, but you know what, I don’t want to deal with his antics right now. Let somebody else deal with it. 

Volume WR 2

•             Robert Woods

•             Kenny Golladay

•             Julian Edelman

•             Cooper Kupp

I really wish more people were off the Woods train, but it seems like I won’t be getting him for cheap like I dreamed of. Woods is the receiver I’d want most out of LA because his consistent. He doesn’t offer the explosive potential of Brandin Cooks, or the goal line prowess of Cooper Kupp. All he does is provide constant, steady output while still reaching elite totals. The hardest part of WRs is their consistency – there’s games they just don’t perform. Woods isn’t matchup proof per say, but he’s usually putting up useful lines. With some TD luck, he could be a huge impact player. I can’t recommend him enough, especially if you draft Tyreek Hill, or TY Hilton as your WR1.

My opinions on Matt Stafford have never been hidden. Likewise, the Lions have outright stated they want to be a running team over everything else. Even with these factors, Golladay can be a great fantasy piece, because theirs only 3 receiving weapons in town – him, Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson. Jones is a deep threat so his targets will fluctuate. Johnson is a good back, but the Lions are dumb and will probably play CJ Anderson on 40% of snaps. Golladay seems like a safe funnel for targets and most rankings have him lower. I see a good floor and large upside here.

As always, you have to pay attention to the news on Edelman’s injuries. He never seems to be healthy, and with all the hits he’s taken over the middle moving the chains,  eventually he’ll fall off a cliff like Wes Welker did. However, he’s really the only sure game in town. I mean, you’ve seen the receiver list this team has, right? It’s not pretty. The second-best receiver on the roster is probably James White. Assuming the rumors about Josh Gordon are untrue, and I won’t believe a reinstatement until I see it, Edelman is a very safe, volume WR 2. Of course in non PPR leagues, his value takes the biggest hit of anyone on the list, but the yardage is still decent. Just make sure he’s upright before drafting.

Quietly, Cooper Kupp was a monster last year, serving as both a good, chain moving WR in the 20s, and a viable red zone threat at the goal line. The Rams offense still hummed without him, but it wasn’t quite the same. Normally, you need to exercise caution with players returning from ACL tears (See Guice, Darrius), but Kupp has been cleared for the start of camp and has looked good so far. If that continues, buy in while the discount is still built into his stock and draft happily. I prefer Woods, but have no problem with Cupp a few picks later. Honestly, I don’t think I’d mind having both.

Dice Roll #1 Tier

•             Amari Cooper

•             Chris Godwin

•             Brandin Cooks

The perception is that once Amari Cooper left Oakland and went to Dallas, he became a superstar. That’s not really the case. Was he better? Yes, but that’s a low threshold. Cooper remained streaky, but because he started hot in Dallas, we remember it well. He seems to be a much better player in real life than fantasy, and he might be the biggest boom or bust receiver in the league. He’s talented and his numbers will look good at year’s end, but I don’t think the headache is worth it. Honestly, he’s only ranked this high because he’s a clear #1 target on his team. If Dallas has a viable #2, I’d have him much lower. TO type it off, Cooper is dealing with foot injuries. I think when his name comes up on my list, I’ll be looking past anyway. 

Everybody thinks Godwin will break out this year. Experts, casual fans, heck, your Grandmother can’t wait to roll out Godwin in a daily league week 1. So part of me believes Godwin will fail because the entire fantasy community believes in him. However, he has Bruce Arians in his corner. The coach stated Godwin will never come off the field and could eclipse 100 catches. I’d probably take him off for at least special teams if you’re planning on using him that much. Oh and defense, but maybe INTs are part of the 100 catch plan. With only Evans and OJ Howard to compete for targets, it’s easy to see the narrative of a breakout. Problem is, there’s no room to underachieve. At his price, he must be a star. That makes me a little hesitant to draft him.

Every year, I talk about not liking Brandin Cooks, this generation’s DeSean Jackson. Cooks will absolutely win your fantasy team several weeks. He’ll also disappear for several weeks, including the inevitable 2-27 in a playoff game. I do think the elite Rams offense helps Cooks out, and maybe his streakiness is overblown. Despite being in the top 20 of my ranks, Cooks is only the 3rd Rams receiver I’d want. That must be a bummer for him in the locker room. You know those guys are talking about Bloggin Hood ranks.

Ascending Talent…And Alshon Jeffrey tier

•             Tyler Boyd

•             Robbie Anderson

•             Christian Kirk

•             Alshon Jeffrey

•             DJ Moore

•             Tyler Lockett

Perhaps I’m missing the mark on Boyd a bit, but I would think missing AJ Green should only help pepper him with targets. I don’t think Boyd is an elite player, and I doubt he’d be a WR1 on a good team. Luckily, he’s on an awful team. The Bengals should be down in basically every game, so they will need to throw. Boyd will be the main benefactor. When AJ Green returns for two weeks before being injured again, Boyd will get softer coverage. I think he’s a safe, floor type of player, but with a big enough target share that he’s a good WR 2.

Anderson is the rare boom or bust guy that seems to run hot and cold like a baseball player. He will go out of control for a full month of the year each season, and then be meh for the rest. Last year, Anderson’s dominance came toward the end of the season. The only reason I’m intrigued is because is coincided with Sam Darnold looking like a good NFL QB. Perhaps this wasn’t just a hot streak and Anderson can be elevated by playing with a professional level QB. This could also be fool’s gold. Anderson isn’t a WR1, but he’ll pretend to be again.  He’s draft able in this range if you want to take a swing for the fence.

If you believe in Kliff Kingsbury, aka discount Sean McVay, then you must buy into Kirk, who should be the primary receiving benefactor of the Air Raid system. Kirk showed flashes last year in arguably the worst offense this side of the wishbone, and should receive plenty of opportunity. Larry Fitzgerald is still there, but at 36, I don’t think he’s cutting too much into Kirk’s targets. Again, this is an upside play, but that’s what this tier is about.

Well, except for Alshon Jeffrey of course. I’ll be honest, I have no idea where to rank Jeffrey. I think the Eagles offense is going to be very good, but all the pieces outside of Ertz and Wentz seem pretty much the same. A lot of guys finishing in the 30s at their position – usable, but not really. Jeffrey is the one player who can change that, as Wentz seemed to click with him in the few games they’ve played together. Jeffrey won’t be an elite yardage or reception play with the weapons around him, so he’ll need to score. If he gets 10 TDs, a possibility when you realize the team lacks goal line targets, he’ll be a top 15 WR. I mean, he’d have to play 16 games, which will not happen as his legs are made of Kleenex. Maybe you’re better off skipping on him. 

Like Kirk, DJ Moore showed flashes in Carolina, but never really broke out his rookie year. Part of the issue was the injury to Cam’s shoulder. The other part was that Christian McCaffrey doesn’t like to share. Moore should be the primary target in the offense, unless you believe in Curtis Samuel hype (I kind of do, kind of don’t), but this offense runs through CMC. A lot also relies of Cam’s accuracy and that’s not his game – even before the shoulder injury. I’m lukewarm on Moore, though I can see a path to him being a big-time contributor.

Most people, I’d imagine as I never really looked in depth at other’s rankings, would have Lockett higher after last season. Now, with Doug Baldwin’s retirement after personally ruining my season last year, Lockett is the clear #1. That should be huge, right? No, no it’s not. The Seahawks will be one of the most run oriented teams in the league. Lockett will get some targets, but I’m guessing a lot will be deep balls so that’s not reliable. His efficiency was off the charts last season, so regression is likely. Plus, even a hampered Baldwin still commanded defense’s attention. There’s no threat on that level now.  I expect regression for a variety of reasons. Stick with the backfield for your Seahawk drafting needs.

All WR1s must go Tier

•             Allen Robinson

•             Mike Williams

•             Geronimo Allison

•             Dante Pettis

•             Corey Davis

•             Calvin Ridley

• Curtis Samuel

I’ve never really been a Robinson fan. He’s only had one complete year, where granted, he was a stud with Blake Bortles throwing him the ball. But outside of that, he’s never come close to fantasy stardom. Not all of that is his fault, but I’m going to let somebody else draft Robinson based on his elite year. If anything, Robinson needs to be healthy to open the door for one of my favorite mid round targets this year, but we’ll get to him in a bit. Keep disappointing and decoying out there Allen!

Last year, I was completely on board with Williams. This year, I’m pretty much off him based on his draft price. He’s going way to way for a guy who’s value was completely tied to scoring 10 TDs. Sure, that was always the assumption and appeal with Williams, but his targets were exceedingly low for the presumed 2nd option on the team. Now, Hunter Henry should eat into his red zone looks. Even if Williams overall targets and yardage totals increase, it’s nearly impossible for him to match last year’s value. He seems like a trap player.

Before Geronimo got hurt last season, he seems like a sure fire 2nd option for the Packers and a great WR 3. The injury totally derailed his season, but I think he’ll pick up where he left off. Allison is slated to be the slot receiver, and that should be a huge boon to his reception totals. Not every pass can go to Adams, at least outside of the red zone, so Allison should be a very productive option. As a WR 3, you’ve done well. Plus, you don’t want to let somebody get him and see him shout Geronimo whenever he scores. That’s on you if it happens.

Pettis was originally a tier higher with all the breakout candidates, but he had to be dropped amid rumors that he’s struggled mightily in camp, to the point where he’s barely running with the starters. That’s a concern. Pettis looked great toward the end of the season and seemed all but assured to be the team’s #1 WR, second option behind George Kittle. If he developed a rapport with Jimmy G, we could be talking about a 1,000 yard receiver. All that remains on the table, but the risk has increased. At this price, I’ve fine with it, but he’ll probably go higher than this I’d think. Just remember, it’s rare that bad training camp news comes out, which is why I think this matters.

I don’t know what to make of Davis, who’s gotten a ton of opportunities but has failed to do anything with it. This is not a good team, and Davis should at the very least get some garbage time production. At the same time, it’s not like he’s lit up the fantasy scoreboard previous. As the sure fire #1 option in Tennessee, he’s worth a pick, but there’s a lot of guy with a proven track record. This is a prove it year for Davis – if he doesn’t produce, he’s a nothing.

Ridley had a somewhat similar year to Mike Williams, inflated by TDs and big games. I do think Ridley is a more complete receiver than Williams, but as a deep threat, his targets aren’t as consistent. Williams might take a hit in the TD department, but Ridley could go weeks without seeing much production. It’s the nature of the game. At least he doesn’t have to worry about Julio stealing his TDs. Hmm. This ranking may be one I need to think about. Don’t be surprised if he’s flipping with Mike Williams in the overalls. It’s very close though.

I’m not sure where in the world to put Samuel right now. There’s talk that he might be Carolina’s real #1, but I don’t see him as that type of player. He seems like a big threat who will get 75% of his points in three games. His spot right now is a place holder. He seems like a true swing for the fences pick. If you like how your team looks and want to try to land a huge pick, here’s your player.

Tantalizing #2 tier

•             Jarvis Landry

•             AJ Green

•             Donte Moncrief/James Washington

•             Sammy Watkins

•             Emmanuel Sanders

Yeah, that tier name is awful. Still didn’t change it during editing though.

Landry’s success in the NFL was a product of the Dolphins not having much talent around him. There, I said it. I think Landry is a decent receiver, but his fantasy success relied on volume. On the Browns, he will never see the volume he had again. His second behind Beckham for targets, but also has to compete with Njoku, Callaway, Chubb, and eventually Hunt. Even if Landry is the clear two, it’s a significant drop off from his heyday. Then, you must wonder about his routes. If he runs more deep patterns like last year, the success rate goes down. If he runs his old short routes and let’s Beckham handle the deep targets, his overall production is weak since he won’t see those 10-12 target games. If his name wasn’t Jarvis Landry, nobody would have him in the top 30. I don’t really want a part of him.

I was so prepared to write the comeback AJ Green paragraph and proudly have him in the 2nd tier right after Hilton. I was going to talk about what a steal he was and a 1,200, 10 TD season was in the books. And then, he got hurt again. I think he’s borderline shot at this point. If you draft Green, you’re hoping for 13 weeks of healthy, elite production, and I don’t think you can count of either. He’s still very good when he’s on the field, but another leg injury has far too many negative possibilities. I ranked him here out of respect, but I doubt I’ll have him on my board when drafting, unless there’s a glowing report.

You’ll be reading this paragraph twice, because it’s more about the Steelers WR 2 than the player. I’m under the impression Donte Moncrief is going to win the role, but James Washington is the incumbent, so it could be his. Both players have yet to show elite potential, though Moncrief flashed briefly in Indy a few years ago. Whoever wins the job is a starting, WR3 asset in fantasy. The Steelers always produce 2 relevant receivers. This won’t be Ju Ju level totals from 2018, but somewhere between 800-900 and 8 TDs is certainly in play. Once the player is determined, make sure to grab him about a round ahead of his ADP and reap the rewards. As of today, I’d prefer Moncrief since they paid him.

Forever the enigma, Sammy Watkins never lived up to his potential. He will always be known as the receiver taken first in the draft featuring Mike Evans and Odell Beckham. That’s a shame. A lot of Watkins’ short comings is due to his injury history, but did you know he’s played more games than Odell? That surprised me. The biggest issue is the nature of Watkins’ injuries, typically the foot, that severely hampered him. You know the drill with Sammy, if he plays, especially in this offense, he’ll be good. You just can’t rely on him. If Watkins is drafted to be your first bench option, you’ll doing well. Now that Tyreek is back, he might even come at a discount. I’d be willing to draft if the price is fair.

The fact that Sanders is reportedly playing in the pre-season is insanity to me. I don’t fully believe in his recovery, but if he’s playing, he must be at least relatively healthy and will be the team’s number 1. I think Sander is smore of a dice roll. Achilles injuries do not heal well at all and he’s on the wrong side of 30. I expect to hear about a set back and won’t be drafting him myself. But, if you think Sanders can beat the odds, here’s about where he’d go. The presence of Sanders really only affected the other Broncos’ receivers, who’ve all moved down.

#2 with Upside tier

•             Anthony Miller

•             Will Fuller

I don’t know how good of a QB Mitchell Trubisky can be, but I know Matt Nagy can scheme well. I think at least one of the receiving weapons will be valuable in Chicago, and I’m not an Allen Robinson guy. By default, this means I must like Anthony Miller. There’s things to like already based on his rookie year, especially his prowess at the goal line. He should improve in his second year, secretly the new year for WRs to break out. I expect him to take a step up, and I’m expecting to have several shares of Miller this season.

When healthy, Fuller defies all rules of regression, scoring TDs at an alarming rate. It’s borderline Tyreek Hill levels of efficiency. Maybe the regression fairies haven’t hit Fuller because he’s hurt far too often. I don’t know what a healthy Fuller season would look like, but it’s useful. He’s a player you have to take a shot on, but know he can’t be relied on. Like Watkins, I love him on my bench so I know I don’t have to get 16 games out of him.

Bottom End #1 WRs Tier

•             Dede Westbrook

•             Sterling Sheppard

•             Marvin Jones

•             John Brown

•             Marquez Valdes-Scantling

I don’t know if Westbrook is the Jaguar’s #1 receiver, but I had to pick somebody, so congratulations, I guess? I don’t think anyone on the Jags is a good fantasy option, but Westbrook is at least a decent player who was the closest thing to consistency the team had. Nick Foles actually brings improved QB play to the team, but he doesn’t’ love throwing to WRs. I don’t know what Westbrook’s floor is, but he has the highest ceiling of the Jags WRs. Draft at your own risk.

The only reason Sterling Sheppard is lower than Westbrook is I can’t possibly trust Eli Manning or. Dare I say it, Danie Jones. Is Daniel Jones just fake Eli Manning? I say yes. Sheppard might be a decent bye week filler, but that’s about it. He’s the 4th option on the team when everyone is healthy and not suspended, and how valuable is that? I guess somewhere in the mid 30s at WR.

I might be a tad low on Jones, but I’m down on the Lions as a whole. Ok, I’m just down on Stafford because I don’t like him, but who’s keeping track. Jones will be targeted a fair amount, but he’s the clear #2 on the team now and I think his elite 2017 was a fluke on connecting on a high volume of deep balls. Don’t expect that to happen again in 2019, with the Lions being a conservative 6-10 team as opposed to the traditional high flying 6-10 team.

In theory, John Brown to Buffalo is a perfect pairing. Josh Allen has a rocket arm and Brown is a pure burner. When the connection hits, it’s going to be a ton of yardage. In practice though, 80% of these passes will go 20 yards past even Brown’s speed, and another 10% will be intercepted. But man, that last 10% will be great. I think Brown is a good receiver, but the opportunities will be minimal. Had he gone to a team with a better QB, say Green Bay, this would be a completely different conversation. As it stands, he’s just an option you plug in and hope for a deep TD.

In his rookie year, MVS showed flashes, and everyone jumped on the bandwagon. Then, he really cooled off, to the point he was nearly non-existent in the box score. It was odd. Sure, rookies struggle, but they usually don’t get worse as the season goes on. I don’t see a world where Valdas-Scantling becomes an every week starter as a #3 on his own team, though I do see a world where he’s the #2 on Green Bay. I believe in Allison, but MVS has a shot at being the second option. If he ends up as the #2, he moves up, significantly. I just think he’s not as good as Allison.

Last call for relevance tier

•             Golden Tate

•             Kenny Stills

•             Quincy Enunwa

•             James Washington/Donte Moncrief

•             Courtland Sutton

Before the likely suspension, I would have put Tate in the mid 20s since Eli Manning loves checking down and Golden Tate loves running routes less than 5 yards down the field. Now, he really is borderline undraftable, though you probably didn’t want to start Tate anyway. I suppose you can stash him, but with what the Giants being an average offense (maybe), the upside doesn’t seem to be there. I think missing those 4 weeks matters. If it gets overturned, which would take a near miracle, I’ll reconsider. Otherwise, he stays in the draft queue.

If you do happen to take Tate for some reason, consider Kenny Stills a s a4 week replacement. Assuming Ryan Fitzpatrick is the starter, you can guarantee he’ll be chucking the ball downfield, making horrific decision after decision. Stills would be the primary benefactor of these deep balls. Once Fitzpatrick is benched, likely in October after a hot start, Stills becomes fodder. I would definitely use Stills as a daily option in September.

This is probably a reach, but I think Enunwa remains the starting WR alongside Robby Anderson and Crowder ends up either hurt or outplayed. Enunwa had a connection with Sam Darnold early, and while most of the routes were short, he was clearly the best option the team had in September. Then injuries derailed his season. I know normally I believe in following the money, but the team paid Enunwa too. This is a hunch, but I think Enunwa has some value, even if it’s low end. After week 1 of the preseason, this looks like a bad call, but I’m going to stick by it. Where you really counting on the second option on the freaking Jets for your fantasy team anyway? I hope not.

You’ll be reading this paragraph twice, because it’s more about the Steelers WR 2 than the player. I’m under the impression Donte Moncrief is going to win the role, but James Washington is the incumbent, so it could be his. Both players have yet to show elite potential, though Moncrief flashes briefly in Indy a few years ago. Whoever wins the job is a starting, WR3 asset in fantasy. The Steelers always produce 2 relevant receivers. This won’t be Ju Ju level totals from 2018, but somewhere between 800-900 and 8 TDs is certainly in play. Once the player is determined, make sure to grab him about a round ahead of his ADP and reap the rewards. As of today, I’d prefer Moncrief since they paid him.

I’m not sure what to make of the Denver receivers, but I’m fairly confident that Emmanuel Sanders will not be what he was last year. An Achilles injury is difficult to come back at any age, so someone else will ultimately be the WR 1. The most likely candidate is Sutton, who, truthfully didn’t do much with the opportunity last year, but was only a rookie. He’ll get a few cracks at it this year. With Joe Flacco as the QB, expect a lot of uneven play. He’s only a bench player in my mind, and has become more risky with Sanders’ miraculous recovery. Is Emmanuel Sanders secretly Wolverine? We’ll find out soon. Any set back to the veteran would make Sutton up at least a full tier.

Now we’ve reached the point where my tiers aren’t so much based on where I’d draft, but need. You’ll see what I mean in a second.

Late Round Burner Tier

•             DeSean Jackson

•             Tre’Quan Smith

•             Tyrell Williams

•             Marquise Goodwin

•             Phillip Dorsett

•             Ted Ginn Jr.

•             Albert Wilson

This exceedingly long list is a group of boom or bust players. I’d recommend picking out your favorite and taking one. Out of this list DeSean Jackson is likely the “safest” option. I would rather have the upside of Tre’Quan Smith over Ted Ginn, but I could see that being a coin toss that might not be worth drafting into. Marquise Goodwin could have new opportunity based on recent camp reports, but he was also rumored to be cut, so I’m really not sure where he stands. Albert Wilson provides the unique opportunity of potentially being the #1 option on his team and still borderline unownable.

Possession Receiver Tier

•             Keke Coutee

•             Deasean Hamilton

•             Paris Campbell

•             David Moore

•             Larry Fitzgerald

•             Randall Cobb

•             N’Keal Harry

This group of players are possession receivers who jump up a tier in any full point PPR leagues. Coutee is going, to me, insanely high in drafts and I think people are overrated a couple games. Granted, Will Fuller is never healthy, so maybe I need to re-evaluate him. Hamilton could have much more value than this is Emmanuel Sanders suffers a setback. For now, he’s the 3rd WR who’s dealing with a hamstring issue, so he’s getting buried. Paris Campbell would have been higher, but he’s suffered a hamstring pull and I expect him to start the year slow. Look to pick him up instead. Larry Fitzgerald offers little upside, but will absolutely outperform this ranking. Look for him to be significantly higher in the overall ranks. N’Keal Harry avoids the other rookies in a tier above because the Patriots drafted him. That’s basically the only reason. They haven’t hit a WR draft pick in the Belichick era though, so maybe he should be lower.

Rookies and Training Camp Hype Tier

•             Devante Parker

•             Marquise Brown

•             Zay Jones

•             Deebo Samuel

•             DJ Metcalf

This is a tier if you really, really want to draft a rookie, but honestly I don’t think any are worth going out of your way to draft. I will not believe in Devante Parker preseason hype for the 9th straight year, and you shouldn’t either. The guy who’s semi interesting to me here is Jones, the only non-deep threat on Buffalo. Is that worth anything? Probably not. But he managed 100 targets last year, so he may matter, assuming a rocket spiral from 3 yards away doesn’t shatter his arm.

If you’re desperate tier

•             Marquise Lee

•             Devin Funchess

•             Michael Gallup

You really don’t even want to take a guy this far down the list unless you have a real hunch. People are likely to be higher on Funchess then I am because he’s a Colt, but he’s likely going to get lost among the 15 TE options they have, and as of now, I’m not sure what Luck’s health situation is. Gallup may develop into a decent receiver, but the Cowboys aren’t to be a passing offense, and he’d fall to the 3rd option at best. He has upside, but realistically won’t be able to produce much.

If you’re REALLY desperate tier

•             Jamison Crowder

•             Antonio Callaway

•             Taylor Gabriel

•             Miles Boykin

•             Mohammed Sanu

•             Josh Gordon

This is a list of #3 options on their own team. You really don’t want to have to go through that. I added Josh Gordon on the pretense that he’s applying for reinstatement. There’s an iota of a chance he plays football this year. But we’ve been saying that for how many seasons now? Don’t even bother with it.