2018 Fantasy Third Base Preview Or It’s All in the Eye of the Beholder

Depth is all about what you make it. Picture Shaq going for a swim in a hotel pool. The water will unlikely reach his expansive waistline. Now picture the same hotel pool, but instead of Shaq, imagine an infant is taking a swim. No, I don’t know who the parents of that infant are, but I can safely say the water depth of the pool will be much higher. If it makes you feel better, this pretend infant has a life vest and there is an alert lifeguard on duty. Here at Bloggin Hood, we aren’t about endangering children, fictional of otherwise. Except Bran. Screw Bran.

Similarly, in entertainment, depth is in the eye of the beholder. Some people will see things at their face level, which logically is the correct way to view things. Others will go deeper and try to assign a complex value to things that may just be what they seem. Remember every English paper you ever wrote? Typically you quoted passages from the book that supported your argument. Now, these passages are taken out of context and could mean hundreds of other things than what you represented. It also could just mean the literal interpretation. It’s all relative, which can be extremely annoying.

Hamlet is one of Shakespeare’s most famous plays and one of my favorite literary works of all time. One of the central themes in the book is Hamlet delaying acting against the usurper Claudius, who broke the man code by marrying his brother’s wife. Also he murdered his brother, which is pretty a bigger no-no. Over centuries, scholars, writers and plenty of dumb ass high school kids have written essays and books on trying to explain why Hamlet delays his actions. The theories are over the map.

One of the most popular theories is melancholy. Hamlet is so depressed over losing his father, he can’t bring himself to do anything of note, questioning every decision. This is supported by his disheveled appearance, as noted in the play’s action notes. Another popular theory is Hamlet has an Oedipus complex. Hamlet wants to sleep with his mother, and delays acting as attacking Claudius would make him have to turn on his mother. That theory is questionable at best, probably created by some prevent who peeps in showers. Weirdos.

Nobody, in the centuries of writing ever considered that Hamlet was a young man trying to process what was going on. He didn’t spring into action because murder is frowned upon in society. But this level of depth is never considered. There’s no enjoyment in taking things at face value. We went to speculate.

In TV, the Sopranos had a similar issue with its ending. The shows been over for like a decade so don’t get mad at me for spoiling. You could have watched it on HBO Go. Infamously, the Sopranos ends with members of the family meeting for dinner. The camera focuses on a shady looking guy, possibly a mobster, while cutting back and forward to the family. The episode suddenly cuts to black, making many viewers think the cable cut out, and from there the show ends. People assumed this meant that Tony was dead, gunned done by the shady guy. As the main character dies, so to, does the story.

Yeah, this didn’t happen. Even the show’s creator came out to say this wasn’t the case. The whole scene just showed that Tony would live in fear of retaliation for the rest of his life. Does this explain why the scene went black? No… Actually, that’s a terrible reason. I’m glad I never watch the Sopranos I would have been so pissed.

Depth comes down to the eye of the beholder. So to, does the depth of Third Base.

Most fantasy guides will tell you that there’s depth to the position. You can find sluggers in the early, middle and late rounds. There’s plenty of upside choices at third base, but reliability is not high. These people were the same ones writing essays on Hamlet’s Odiepus comment, while peeking through the bathroom door keyhole.

One reason the position isn’t that deep is the multi position eligibility. Some of the top players who qualify at third base – Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, and Alex Bregman, also qualify at other positions. Outside of Freeman (though you can argue him to), the others can be played at a weaker position. If all these players are played elsewhere, and three of them probably should be, we’re looking a lot shallower.

Other issue is the position is top-heavy. As many as six eligible 3B should go in the first two rounds. Another four will be gone by the end of round five. Unless you’re willing to pay up at third, you’ll be using a less desirable option. Fortunately, these high-end bats provide what you’re looking for.

You’ll find some of the safest combination of power, average and counting stats at these elite third baseman. As you look past the first five players, there’s still plenty of all around goodness as well as upside. It’s only when you get past the sure thing #1 third basemen that things get a little more dicey. The later players either are one trick ponies (typically power), inexperienced, on awful teams, or got old. While they do have their use on a roster, you don’t want to have them as your only 3B option. This means I recommend paying up. Using one of your first five picks on a 3B is encouraged, and recommended. I wouldn’t be against using more than one.

In fact, you could semi corner the third base market (get it, they are corner infielders), by taking a natural third baseman, plus another who can play somewhere else. Teaming an Arenado with a Jose Ramirez would give you a huge average boost, power, some speed and all the counting stats you can handle. A Freddie Freeman Justin Turner pairing might win you average by themselves. These are good bats, and you wouldn’t mind having multiple of them. This strategy means you don’t block your Utility slots early, and still get elite players.

Speaking of bad corner puns, going 1B-3B in some order with your first two picks is a good strategy. Some people will preach grabbing the weaker positions like SS, or an ace, but I think the depth at the corner positions fall off quickly. If you can address it early, other positions have enough talent that you’ll be fine waiting a bit. I wouldn’t draft just on position, never do that, but as a tie breaker, early corner picks make sense.

But remember, what’s strong or weak is all about perceptive. Perhaps yours varies. But if it does, I’m filling any peep holes in my house with plaster before you come over.

Let’s address some third baseman questions.

Where is the talent drop off?

To me, there is a drop off after Alex Bregman. Bregman himself is a tad overrated, but he has been a good hitter for over a full baseball season, and comes with 20-20 potential and insane upside. This gives drafters nine elite players to pick from, although you’ll need to have one no later than round five. Now, there could be a tenth, but I’m not quite ready to go there yet.

Who is the pivot player at third?

I guess I’m ready to go there now. Rafael Devers lit the world on fire after his promotion in 2017, decimating baseballs at an alarming rate and looking like the next big thing in Boston. He was so good, fans totally forget about Andrew Benintendi and Mookie Betts. However, after his torrid star, the struggles began to set in. He only hit two home runs in his last 38 games. I think Devers has star potential, but are we sure he’s going to reach it this season? It seems you’re paying for the hot start and not his true line. It’s a great park and a great option, but I’d play it safe and pair Devers with another 3B just in case the power isn’t there. You’ll need 30 homers for him to retain value.

What should I look at for in my third baseman?

While third base is full of mashers, batting averages quickly deteriorate after you leave the elites. If, for some reason, you don’t want an early third baseman, make sure to draft one that has a safe average floor. Past the top ten guys, a lot of players are in danger of hitting .220, or even worse. Consider players who have a track record of solid averages. You don’t need a .300 hitter, even though one is available late, you just need someone who can hit around .260.

Which Third Baseman should surprise?

Adrian Beltre – He’s not the flashiest pick in the world, but Beltre is going far too late in drafts. Last year, the old man slashed .312/.383/.532 despite his age. That shows he can still mash with the best of them. The problem is he only played 94 games due to injury. That’s the risk of taking an older player. It doesn’t appear he’s slowed down in the slightest, but he needs to stay on the field. Pair him with another 3B, even a boring one, and reap the rewards of Beltre. When he’s healthy, he’s as good as anyone.

Travis Shaw – It was a mixed bag for Shaw in his first season with the Brewers. While he topped 30 homers and 100 RBIs, he struggled in Miller Park, a save haven for left-handed hitters. Part of the reason was the health of his daughter. Now, with her healthy and no longer in the hospital, Shaw’s mind may be free. He should hit better at Miller Park, and while maybe a .270 average won’t happen again, his power numbers could rise. There’s an outside shot at 40 bombs.

Which Third Baseman will disappoint?

Miguel Sano – Sano’s excess pounds were referenced in the intro of the guide, but there’s a lot more baggage with him than a spare tire. He is currently being investigated for a domestic violence incident and likely faces a suspension. He is almost always injured during the season, so it’s fair to label him injury prone. Finally, for all the power heroics we here of him, he still hasn’t hit 30 in a season. Some of this is related to his injuries, but some is to his elevated strikeout rate. His average is a serious risk. I respect his power, but there’s a lot of bad signs here. You know what the difference between Joey Gallo and Sano might be? Gallo has actually done it.

Jake Lamb – The breakout everyone hopes for Lamb isn’t coming this season. Firstly, he has to deal with the humidor, which could sap a lot of his potential stats. Secondly, he’s a first half player – look at his splits and watch as his numbers fall off a cliff after the All Star Game. Finally, and most importantly, he can’t hit lefties. He’s worse than the replacement level player against them, meaning he should be part of a platoon. I don’t see any value outside of daily transaction leagues, where you’d need another 3B to cover for Lamb against Lefties. And for the second half. Sounds like too much work.

Any Valuable Prospects?

Nick Senzel – Not only is Senzel to being major league ready, he’s learning SS to expand his versatility. Senzel doesn’t look to be elite in any area, but his floor in extremely high and he’ll contribute across the board. He’ll add the potential of double-digit steals to a high average, middling power and solid plate discipline. If you want a prospect to help this year, this is your player. He could be an Anthony Rendon type, without the laundry list of ailments.

Vladamir Guerrero Jr – The son of the free swinging Hall of Famer, the junior Guerrero possesses elite hitting tools, and something even his father never had, patience. He’s walked around 10% of the time, which is incredible for a 19 year old. The patience shows he’s an advanced hitter, but he’s still some time away. I wouldn’t expect him until September. In a keeper league, he’s worth an add later on.

Austin Riley –The Braves consider Riley as part of their rebuilding process, and as a 20-year-old, he seems to be the real deal. He’s hit for an impressive average, solid power, but no speed. He probably also won’t join the major league team, but keep him on your radar for later.

 

Player’s Guide:

A – An Average of .280 or above

OB – On Base Percentage of over .350 or an OBP significantly improving on the batter’s average.

HR – More than 30 Homeruns, or a slugging percentage above .500.

S – More than 15 stolen bases

D – The potential to have an average below .250 or an .OBP below .325

IR – The player is likely to miss time due to injury.

In addition, I will list players who have additional eligibility based on Yahoo’s rankings. These players have slightly increased value, but don’t get carried away. Players ranked will have the same write-up on multiple list. Their outlook doesn’t change based on defensive flexibility.

Top of the Heap Tier

Nolan Arenado COL (A, OB, HR) – There shouldn’t be any question who is the king of the position. Not only is Arenado the top Third baseman, he should be the 3^rd pick in most drafts. His best feature is his consistency. In the last three seasons, he’s never dipped under a .285 average, 35 homers or 130 RBIs. He’s been at least a .285, 35-130 guy with about 100 runs scored. I think you’d sign up for that. No, he doesn’t steal any bases and his numbers could be inflated by Coors, but that’s not your concern. Take the best 4 category player you can at #3.

Kris Bryant CHC (A, OB, HR) – Bryant’s “down year” might have been his best all around offensive performance. His batting average remained a shade under .300 and he had a .400 OBP. Really, the only issue was 29 home runs, which is fine, but peculiar with the inflated totals throughout baseball last season, and low RBIs. With the talent the Cubs have, I think Bryant will crush 73 RBIs this year. It’s partially the product at batting second, but he could easily his 35 HRs and score 110 times to alleviate any worries. Draft with confidence. (OF)

Freddie Freeman ATL (A, OB, HR) – Not only does Freeman have the flexibility of playing 3B now, he’s also a really good hitter. Like really good. Had he not injured his wrist last season, Freeman might have been the best at the position. His park plays up his left-handed bat, he’s hits line drives and slugged an incredible .586 in his 117 games. This includes when he struggled a bit after coming back from the injury (wrists are brutal injuries for power hitters). I think the Sky is the limit for Freeman, and I expect he’ll be a top five pick next year, especially as all the Braves prospects start coming up.  (1B)

Manny Machado BAL (A, HR) – Similar to Bryant, Machado had his worse perceived offense year since break out, though this one was more legit. Machado couldn’t hit his playing weight in the first half, which was concerning until he turned it on in the second. This ranking assumes Machado’s second half is what we’ll get. He’s still only 25, so I expect a full rebound. In his contract year, we might even see 20 steals like 2015, but don’t bank on that. Machado will gain SS eligibility about two weeks into the season, so his value should be sky-high. If you can get a discount in the 2^nd round, consider yourself blessed. (SS)

Josh Donaldson TOR (OB, HR, IR) – I really thought Donaldson’s numbers were worse than they were, but he slugged .559 and hit 33 homers in 113 games. His bat is still as good as ever, but I worry about his health. For two years, he’s suffered calf injuries, though 2017 was the first year he missed time. If he’s healthy, he’s capable of an Arenado line, which he did in 2015. There’s some risk in his health, but not in his ability. I guess passing for less risky players, but don’t let him slip too far.

Clear Starters Tier

Jose Ramirez CLE (A, OB, S) – I hope people don’t realize how good this guy is. Two seasons where he hit .315, he provides 20-20 potential and improved every year. He’s very similar to his teammate Francisco Lindor, except nobody wants to believe Ramirez. I’m not sure the power is real (29 HRs last year, 11 the year before), but if he can provide 20 with steals and that average? Sign me up. I wanted to move him higher but I couldn’t justify it. Oh, and he has multiple position eligibility if you’re into that sort of thing (you should be). (2B)

Justin Turner LAD (A, OB, IR) – Good thing the Mets didn’t keep this guy. That would have been such a shame. I remember in the 2015 NLDS, Turner hit .950 with 16 doubles in 14 at bats.

We have to accept that whatever our previous perception of Justin Turner was, it was wrong. He is a .300 hitter with power. He is a guy capable of a .900 OPS and will provide solid power. Turner’s biggest hurdle is injuries – he seems hampered by something every year, but he has played over 125 games in each of the past three season since his evolution. If you miss out on the top four guys and need average, do not pass up on Turner.

Anthony Rendon WAS (IR) – Rendon’s best attribute is that he’ll fit in any team construct. He does everything well, so he won’t hurt anywhere. The problem is he doesn’t really excel at anything either. Last year he hit .300, but the norm is .270. He’ll provide about 20 HRs and maybe 10 steals. The counting stats will be good and he’s in a good lineup. The main issue is he’s always hurt. The past two years have been healthy, but he was a mainstay on the DL previously. If he avoids injury, he’ll be a very useful piece. Just don’t expect him to win you a category.

Alex Bregman HOU (S) – There is a ton of hype on Bregman, and I get it. He was a top-tier prospect who seemed to come into his own last year. He’s similar to Rendon, another all-around player who will help everywhere, including steals, but won’t dominant any category. Don’t get me wrong, this type of player is essential to fantasy. But I see Bregman ranked in the top 30 in places. That’s projecting a superstar. In normal, one year leagues, I want to see it first before I pay for it. (SS)

High end Util/Corner Infielder Tier

Rafael Devers BOS – Kind of like Bregman, we crowned Devers as a sure thing before he did everything. I looked at his stats from last year, and while they’re certainly good, he’s not the second coming quite yet. After a torrid start, Devers slowed down, only hitting two homers in his last 38 games. There’s going to be an adjustment and he could struggle this year before the real breakout happens. I don’t hate Devers – he’s in my top ten, but proceed with caution. If you draft him, you’re reaching on upside and need to counter it with someone safe. Who could that be?

Adrian Beltre TEX (A, OB, HR, IR) – What a professional segway that way.

I get that Beltre is old, but he’s still a really good hitter. He managed a.312/.383/.532 line in 340 At Bats last year. That’s not just good, that’s elite. The only downside with him is his age, but it seems like nobody wants to draft him. Aren’t we hoping that Devers and Bregman can hit like Beltre? This is the Family Guy scene where Peter tries to get a boat but chooses a mystery box “A boat’s a boat but the mystery box could be anything. It could even be a boat. You know how much we want one of those”. Basically, I’m saying to draft a boat.

Also I’m saying if you miss out on the upside picks, you can get Beltre later than you should and might have the better numbers for the season.

Travis Shaw MIL (HR, D) – Is being a lefty in Miller Park not enough? Fine. Shaw put together a 30-100 homer season on a good, but not great, Brewers lineup. He’s firmly entranced in the lineup, and while there’s competition for outfield at bats, the third baseman job is wide open. He might not hit .273 again, and I feel like there’s average regression here. But he has decent on base skills, and I think you could comfortably start him at 3^rd. Also, he’s a lefty in Miller Park – the best park for Left handed power. Yes, even more so than Coors. There’s profit here.

Mike Moustakas KC (HR) – Moustakas finally resigned with the Royals, which caps his upside a bit. Lineup protection is overrated though, so Moustakas’ power would play anywhere. I think he came into his own in 2015, and never got to display it fully since his tore his ACL early the next season. Don’t sleep on him. He’s pretty much just power, but provides safe averages and should bat in a good RBI spot. How many counting stats he has remains to be seen. Last year may be his ceiling, but his floor is pretty safe.

Nicholas Castellanos DET – If you don’t like hinging your team’s success on the homer or bust mentality, consider Castellanos, who showed big improvements last year. All of his counting stats were up though his slash line went down a tad. I’d take the tradeoff though. He’s a high floor, low ceiling type player, but there’s still a chance there’s a bit of growth left in him. Note he’ll be playing the outfield this year, so he’ll have duel eligibility. His biggest weakness is the lack of walks, but his hitting profile is solid otherwise. (OF)

Sold Out for Power Tier

Joey Gallo TEX (HR, OB, D) – Did anybody feel that breeze? Oh, sorry, it was Joey Gallo striking out again. Gallo might have the worst contact skills in the majors. It shows in his .209 average. But when he makes contact, it goes a long way. Out of Gallo’s 94 hits, 41 were homers. He also walks at an impressive rate; he has to in order to survive. In OBP leagues, you might not notice the average drain. His strikeouts scare me more than anyone else in the league, but he could easily lead the majors in home runs. If you’re lacking power and/or can cover a bad average, Gallo makes a lot of sense. He’s not for every team though. (1B, OF)

Miguel Sano (OB, HR, D, IR) – Everybody raves about Sano power, but I’m more concerned about his injury history. Every time it looks like Sano is ready to give us that 40+ home run season, he gets injured. He’s averaged 115 games in his two full MLB seasons and has yet to top 30 Homers. Now, that’s a matter of time. Sano crushes the ball when he makes contact, but he loves swinging and missing. He loves it. His strikeout rate leaves the potential to bottom out his average, but he walks at a decent rate to compensate. Still, the injury history and the strikeouts worry me, though I respect the upside.  (1B)

Past Their Prime Tier

Kyle Seager SEA – For years, Seager was the model of consistency at the position. He was the value pick that did everything well and never let your team down. Then, in 2017, he let your team down. Seager’s average dipped a tad, but otherwise his numbers were the same. The problem is 25-28 homers isn’t special unless you pair it with a high average or steals. Seager has a middling average and nothing resembling speed. In 2014, Seager’s numbers might have made him a top 5 3B. Now? He’s struggling to be a UTIL or CI for teams.

Evan Longoria SF – Longoria rose from the ashes in 2016 to have one of his best year as a pro. 2017 did not continue the resurgence. He lost over 100 points on his slugging percentage and his counting stats plummeted. Now he moves to San Francisco which has a better lineup, if we were in 2014. Longoria somehow managed to find a worse home park than Tropicana. What are the odds? We might think of Longoria differently if he played in a hitter friendly park, but alas, it never happened. He’s an uninspiring, low upside fantasy option.

Todd Frazier NYM (HR, D) – This is just a reminder that the Mets could have had Moustakas for less money. So there’s that for starters.

Frazier will offer solid power and probably bat 5^th or 6^th in a Mets lineup that is lacking OBP guys. There’s not a table setter for miles. So, you can expect a decent amount of solo shots. I wouldn’t be surprised if Frazier hits 30 homers, and maybe more. The problem is his average. Frazier likely will not hit his weight, and he doesn’t walk enough to offset it. Unlike Sano and Gallo, he doesn’t have quite as much raw power. There’s an outside shot he hits 40 Homers, but Sano and Gallo likely do that if they’re healthy and have the potential for more. If you’re desperate for power, you could do worse, but I don’t think his counting stats will be eye raises. More likely, they’re be brow furrowing.

Eduardo Nunez BOS (A, S) – The biggest problem for Nunez is I’m not sure he’ll have a job post April. Currently, he is penciled in to start at 2B as Dustin Pedroia recovers from injury. Nunez will provide some solid averages and great speed, especially for the position. He’d likely steal 30 bases with regular playing time, but that’s going to be an issue come May. He’s not a bad draft pick for a month of production, but don’t draft him without another 3B. Nunez does offer positional eligibility which is nice. (2B, SS, OF)

Bust City Tier

Jake Lamb ARI (HR? D) – There’s are three things working against Lamb that his numbers do not reflect. Firstly, the humidor in Arizona may depress offense. We have to see what will happen before judging, and Lamb’s power will play anywhere, but it’s a concern. Secondly, Lamb is a first half player, which is great for a hot start, but nearly unplayable after the All Star Game. This has occurred for several seasons, and seems to be Lamb’s thing. Don’t assume you can trade him; other people read baseball articles, jerk. Finally, and to me most importantly, Lamb cannot hit Left Handed pitching. It’s like 12 year olds facing prime Randy Johnson – borderline abuse. Lamb can, and honestly should, sit against Lefties, which caps his value. With all these red flags, I’ll pass.

Miakel Franco PHI (D) – I really thought that we’d have Franco at least ten spots higher on the list, but it hasn’t worked out for him. Franco has struggled since 2015, and seems to be losing favor in Philly. As the team gets deeper, he will drop in the batting order. There’s a chance he hits the bench, though it’s unlikely. Franco wouldn’t be a guy I’d want to draft, but I’d keep an eye on him. There’s still potential and Franco has post hype bust written all over him. Let’s hope the emphasis isn’t on bust.

Well, as a Mets fan, whatever, if he busts, good for us.

Prospect Central Tier

Nick Senzel CIN – The Sensei is ready to karate chop baseballs all over the field!

Yeah I should have worked on that line more.

Senzel is a high floor, lower ceiling prospect who many expect to hit around .290 with 20-25 homers and will chip in a handful of steals, possibly up to ten. People don’t seem overly excited about him, but isn’t this the type of hitter we want in fantasy? The type where we have a solid idea of what the production will be, as long as it’s good. This is the makings of a top 8-10 3B, with the upside for more. Look at how the power profiles of Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger actually increased from the minors to the majors. Who’s the say Senzel won’t add more pop (he’s only 22) and take that projection to 25-30? He plays in the right ball park for it. Plus, he’s learning to play different positions in the minors, so maybe he debuts at second, making his bat even more valuable. I like his potential a lot.

Matt Chapman OAK (HR, D) – The power is a guess since he’s only played half a year, but he projects as a 30 HR guy. Oakland loves developing pure power hitters that do little else. Chapman could be the next in line and might play a lot this season. There’s better prospects out there though, and if you’re going all out in power, I’d just nab Gallo or Sano. Good luck with his average too.

JP Crawford PHI – Crawford has been on every prospect list since 2013 but his minor league stats do not match up. He’s never put up any elite numbers during this time, and he’s taken a lot time to even make the show. He’s still only 23, but it’s not like the Phillies have been bursting with offensive talent. Crawford will play SS and we’ll see if he lives up to his potential. I need to see it first before I invest. (SS)

Austin Riley ATL – There’s a good chance we don’t see Riley up with Atlanta this year as he’s only 20 and they are still rebuilding. However, a lot of their prospects are coming up and this team might be the Astros in 2-3 years. Riley will be a part of it. He hit .315/.389/.511 in his first 48 games in double A, and should be a future fantasy star. In dynasty leagues, he might be long gone but consider him in any keeper format. He could make a big splash in September, or 2019.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr TOR  – What if I were to tell you that there was a Guerrero that could hit? You’d obviously believe me – he was just inducted in the Hall of Fame. Now, what if I told you he was also patient at the plate. You’d likely flip over a table and call me a filthy liar. Well, I may be a filthy liar, but not about this. Calm down, jeez.

Guerrero is still only 19,but he’s rapidly rising through the minors. He hit for .323/.425/.485 in A ball, and should début in double A this year. It’ll be tough to see him playing in the majors before September. Personally, I’d hold off until 2019, but that’s just me. Still, those numbers are eye-popping. He’ll need to grow into more power, but that’s expected for a teenager. When I was 19, I couldn’t do a pull up. Something tells me Guerrero will be fine.

Wilmer Flores NYM – You shouldn’t draft Flores, at least not yet. I think he’s be a decent everyday 2B with 3B, 1B and maybe even SS flexibility. But the Mets only see him as a bit utility player. I list him in the preview for one reason – if you play in a daily transaction league, where you can pick up and plug players in the lineup, Flores makes a great play against lefties. He mashes lefties with reckless abandon. If, by some miracle, the Mets did the right thing and played Flores at 2^nd every day, he’ll put up a borderline useful line. He’s no superstar, but he’s a solid bat. Daily players, take notice. (1B, 2B)