Super Bowl Prop Bets Part 2 Or How to Rehash a Tired Concept

Unlike many kingpins who use violence or money to solve his problems, Proposition Joe preferred to offer his rivals an option. With his trademark phrase “I got a proposition for you” Joe would set up a deal that benefited both parties. Not only did this help reduce bloodshed in Baltimore by nearly 3% (before Joe backed out of the deal and murdered), it kept Joe at the top of the game. He wasn’t the strongest, or the quickest, but Proposition Joe might have been the smartest drug lord on the streets of Baltimore. In 2011, in honor of Joe’s successes, the Vegas Sportsbook decided to name any Super Bowl bets not related to the game itself as Prop Bets. What a dubious honor it was.

And that my friends is today’s history lesson. How many Super Bowl columns start with he legacy of Prop Joe? I’m guessing… probably like 25? 30?

Are you tired of all the Super Bowl coverage yet? Waiting two weeks for a game that could be a blowout is both a terrible and brilliant strategy. Sure, you might alienate the core fan base by spamming hundreds of non football stories, but think of the casual fans who love meaningless drivel like this. If tv ratings are any sign of the population’s desires, and God forbid that be true, most people want more reality tv shows. What’s the week before the Super Bowl other than reality TV? We get little, pointless snippets into players’ and coaches’ lives, and only about two of the stories have any substance. In fact, if you hired actors, edited the stories and filmed them, you’d probably have the highest TV ratings of the year. Fluff pieces are gold for everyone except people with working brains.

I think the most entertaining story of the two-week sabbatical came from New England, where a radio host called Tom Brady’s daughter an “annoying little pissant”. This show had (key word tense here) a weekly interview with Brady, pretty much the only show the quarterback does on a regular basis. When Brady heard  the comments, he called into the show and said he’d have to consider if he’d make future appearances. The host was immediately suspended and probably tarred and feathered moments later. They totally used the extra sticky tar too.

I have a couple of thoughts.

Firstly, if you’re a New England based radio show, how the Hell can you insult Tommy Buisness?* He’s this generation’s Larry Bird: the marquee sports figure in the region. The difference here is that Brady was even more successful than Bird, and has led a Patriots dynasty since Mo Lewis made possibly the most damning play in Jets history. This is like when a boss tells an employee he can take an extra week off with pay, and then the employee turns around to call him or her a worthless shit within ear shot. That week off is quickly going to become an extended leave of absence.

Secondly, Brady’s daughter is like five. If you have a problem with a child that age, it’s likely not the individual child’s fault, but the concept of children that you hate. I don’t know anything about this radio host, but I’m guessing he has a lot of frozen dinners for one in his freezer. He likely goes home and watches the Red Sox without pants. I don’t think he’s the proper judge for whether or not a kid is a pissant.

Finally, and most importantly, if anybody is an annoying little pissant, it’s Tom Brady. You know, the guy who acts above everyone else and thinks the league is out to get him (the refs obviously are not). Brady keeps talking about his TB 12 regime and eats nothing but avocados and kale all day. Maybe it will extend his prime, but is it worth the misery of eating kale daily? I don’t think so.

Come on radio hosts. Know who butters your bread.** Don’t attack the daughter of the hand that feeds you. She didn’t do anything. If anything, blame the parents. Had the host attacked Brady, it still would have been moronic but he would have had the support of most of the country. The vast majority of the country will not stand for bullying children. I’m going to exclude Adrian Peterson from that majority.

Unless it’s Bran. Nobody likes Bran.

As fatigue from Super Bowl coverage sets in, I can promise you, I’m not here to give you interviews and fluff pieces. The only fluffing around here is the world count. Instead, we’ll continue with some more prop bets and finally a game prediction. I think everybody can deal with discussion on the action

I have a few more props that I found since last week, including the cross sports bet props that are always fun. Anytime a hockey score can screw your football bet, you know you have a problem.

There’s about 900 props this year, which is the most I’ve ever seen. Rumor has it, the betting for this year’s Super Bowl will crack the $4.5 billion threshold. So great, that means I’m already 0 for 1 and we haven’t made it to Sunday yet. Not a good sign. Ah well, I’m usually lucky so this is probably a fluke***

Most of the props out there are very specific to the game. If you have interest betting on those, my advice for you is to figure out how you think the game will go. Predicting game flow is dangerous in fantasy football and in gambling, but sometimes it’s the path to a pot of gold. Sometimes it’s the path to having only a pot to piss in, but come on, live a little.

Once you have created your game story, you can bet accordingly. I would parlay these bets sparingly, and instead put a small amount on each. This minimizes the risk you already have, while giving you the opportunity to still turn a hefty profit. You can also then hedge your bet with a contrarian play on the game. For example, if you expect an easy Patriot victory, bet on the Eagles to cover as your last bet. This way, if things go south quick, you won’t lose as much. With a little luck, you’ll break even, the gamblers dream. Sure, you could have not bet and broke even, but then you wouldn’t have the thrill of betting two months rent on whether the national anthem goes over and if Gronk remembers to wear pants for the third quarter.

Finally, if you aren’t using the Rodney Harrison prop in your betting, you are a fool. The bet on whether he picks the pats to win continues to be a large favorite, but it’s also free money. If you must parlay, include this. The only way Harrison bets the Eagles is if he’s betting the line himself.

If you missed last week’s column, here’s a link. Without further ado, here’s the remaining props

What will the total score of the game be?

Odd (-125) Even (-105)

Ha! You thought this might actually be a prop based on the performances of the players. Why would I waste my time trying to figure out that? The way to really rake in serious cash is to put all your chips on fluke, luck based events and hope everything lands in your favor. With the coin toss, I mean this literally.

There is a bit of strategy in this, and mostly it comes down to predicting what the margin of victory will be. Once you figure out the point differential, you’ll have an easy time. In fact, let’s couple this with our next prop.

Will the game be decided by exactly three points?

Yes (+400) No (-600)

Now, if you know anything about the Patriots Super Bowl history, you know that they don’t exactly blow out teams. In fact, one of my favorite lines before 2015 was that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have failed to win a Super Bowl without Adam Vinatieri kicking. Who’s the real master behind the dynasty, huh?

Now, thanks to Pete Carroll not running the ball, the streak was broken, and a Patriots three peat is in play. History is on the side of a last second field goal winning the game. The Patriots have only won comfortably against, ironically, the Eagles in the Super Bowl, and I wouldn’t call that game a blowout. The majority of NFL games are close, and with all the talent the Eagles have, I don’t think this will be different. I envision the Pats kicking a game winner as time expires, and me flipping over a tray devoid of all, but the tiniest mini hot dog crumbs. I like the odds I get here, and since a 3 point margin means the total score will be odd (I checked the math several times), I like the odd total score.

I know I opened with an anti-parlay strategy, but if you have to do it, here’s the two props to use for it. Heck, throw Rodney Harrison’s free multiplier in there too, even if it is 1.0000001%. That penny could help you buy the Monday morning cup of coffee.

Will there be a penalty for Excessive Celebration?

Yes (+250) No (-400)

I sure hope so. On paper, this looks like a boring game. The only person with a shred of personality on the Pats is Gronk, but not only does he usually just spike the ball on his touchdowns, he’s at least partly brainwashed by the Patriot way. The Patriot way is, of course being as boring as physically possible. I don’t see the flag coming from them.

I can see it come from the Philly side. They are the underdogs, and if there’s one thing I know about Philly, it’s that they’re passionate. Like, really passionate. I’m using nice words here on purpose. You can’t see LeGarrette Blount break through the line for a big game, only to give the yards back for taunting? If Torrey Smith gets behind the defense for a big game, you don’t think he’ll celebrate for a full minute? Can’t you see Jay Ajayi celebrating just for the fact he’s no longer in Miami. Ehh, maybe the refs would look the other way for that miracle.

I wouldn’t actually make a large wager on this one. It’s risky, and refs will allow the celebrations to go on a longer than normal. Even these blind imbeciles know the stakes of the game, and the impact a flag can have. Had Mike Carey still be a ref, I’d consider wagering heavily.

Darkhorse – Bill Belichick celebrates Nasty Nick’s third INT of the first half by doing the Dougie on the field an receives the flag. None of this dab stuff. Bill would throwback to the original dumb dance. Speaking of Dancing Bill….

What color will Bill Belichick’s shirt be at kickoff

Blue (4/5) Grey (3/2) Red (15/2) White (15/2)

These are the props where you have to look yourself in a mirror and realize you have a problem. A problem that you didn’t find amazing props like this sooner. Where have these been all my life?

The smart choice is blue, which is what Bill wore during the last two Super Bowls. I don’t know if he believes in superstitions (or love, or joy or anything really) but I don’t see why he’d switch it up. Belichick doesn’t strike me as a guy with a vibrant wardrobe. He could wear a gray hoodie, but since the wording says shirt, I don’t think this extra layers matter. Then again, what if he goes straight hoodie?

See, these props get you thinking, and the brain is a wonderful muscle to exercise. I’ll stick with my guess of blue.

Will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half

Yes (-300) No (+240)

If you’ve watched any Patriot game in the past 17 years, you know that they always score right before the half, whether it be via touchdown or field goal. I don’t know what it is about the NFL, but it seems like teams score right before halftime in every game. Defenses might be afraid of getting burned deep, and concede the short yardage plays. It might also be good teams open up the offense here to try to score in the limited remaining time. The fact that the odds are heavily in favor of it happening shows you all you need. Take the easy win here.

Who will score the first TD

Too many odds to list

The fact the field is an option, with 4/1 odds, shows you how difficult this bet is to hit. Teams will pull out all the stops in the Super Bowl. You have to factor in teams may throw to their 4^th WR or 3^rd TE if he’s open. This rarely happens in a regular season game. The role players seem to step up with a big play or two in the Super Bowl, but if you’re choosing this prop, don’t overthink it too much.

While Rob Gronkowski (15/2) is the favorite on the board, there’s a reason for it. Gronk is the most reliable target Tom Brady has had in the end zone since Randy Moss was traded. During the regular season, the team uses Gronk sparingly, usually only when they need a big play. The hope was to keep him healthy for the playoffs and unleash unholy misery on the opponent teams. Quickly, he was injured with a concussion after being unleashed. I don’t know if Gronk’s huge frame is just a magnet for injuries, if his play style attracts big hits or if teams try to take him out. What ever it may be, Gronk is injured more than anybody else, so he needs to be saved, only for emergencies. There’ s no bigger sports emergency than the Super Bowl.**** If the team gets to the red zone, Gronk will be the first option for as long as he is upright. If the Pats score from distance, accept your loss and move on.

However, I believe the Eagles may score first, and if so, look for former Patriot great LeGarrette Blount to start the scoring. Not only does he have great odds, I think he is without question the most likely Eagle to score. When the team gets down close do you think they want Nick Foles to throw, or do you think they want to win? Handing it off to Blount, the team’s goal line back, makes sense. There is also extra incentive to give Blount the carry against his old team. Should this matter? Of course not. Jay Ajayi is the team’s best back, and should get the goal line touches. The history aspect should also mean nothing. However, teams are dumb, so expect Blount to have the first, second and third cracks at a Touchdown if there is a goal to go situation.

Yuck, I just wrote about actual game strategy. Please, give me a few props that make little to no sense, and STAT.

Cross Sports props

Ah, thank you. That’s much better.

Cross sport props are exactly what they sound like. You have to decide which amount will be higher between a random stat in the Super Bowl, versus a random stance in another, unrelated sports. These props are great because they sound like you need to have a lot of sports knowledge. I mean, picking between two different sports? You must have done a lot of research to make such a challenging wager.

This couldn’t be further from the truth. These props manage to be more of a coin flip than, well, the coin flip. Sure, you can try to use logic and reason, but remember, anything can happen in a single game. Now, you’re trying to pinpoint the totals of two small portions of professional events. Good luck with that.

With that said, these are some of the most entertaining ones, so I picked five I thought I had a prayer at. Note that there are about 100 of these, so you may find something else you prefer. I actually have a job (shocking, I know), so I couldn’t comb through all of them, but here’s a small taste of what you’ll see, and the ones I like.

What total will be higher: The total points scored in the Super Bowl (-120) or the total number of medals the United States will win in the 2018 Olympics (-200)?

With a projected score of 48 points, the Super Bowl has a modest over/under line. But, I think the scoring will be a little lower than the projections. Typically, teams start off slow in the Super Bowl, and I don’t see the Eagles lighting up the Patriots. I also don’t see the Pats scoring at will on the Eagles defense. This should keep the total somewhat low. As for the Medals, this doesn’t specify golds. I know the Winter Olympics have less events than the Summer games, but come on, the US is always a medal collection machine. I think this is an easy win for the USA.

Which total will be higher: The total number of Rob Gronkowski receptions (-130) or the number of goals in the San Jose Sharks vs the Carolina Hurricanes game (-110)?

As we’ve already discussed, Gronk is the best Patriot player. He’s clearly their best weapon and they will likely call his number when they need a big first down. However, I can’t see him having an eight or nine catch game. He’s not a huge volume guy and there’s always a risk in relying on him to stay healthy. Meanwhile, hockey scoring is up throughout the league. I could see this game having eight goals despite not even knowing Carolina had a hockey team. If this is an expansion franchise, I think they misspelled Vegas. Ah well, eight goals seems plausible, and I don’t think that’s a total Gronk can get to.

Which total will be higher: Total first half points for the Eagles (+110) or the combined totals of rebounds and assists for Ben Simmons versus the Indiana Pacers (-150)?

Historically, the Super Bowl offenses always get off to a slow start. The Eagles quarterback is Nick Foles, not known for his prowess. This all shapes up to a team looking to put up a weak first half total.  I’m thinking somewhere in the 10-13 range. This seems to be the sweet spot for Simmons, an all-around player who is a jump shot away from being one of the ten best players in the NBA. Don’t sleep on the guy. I think he gets this required total pretty comfortable.

Which total will be higher: The total number TD passes for Nick Foles (-110) Vs the total number of blocks by Joel Embiid vs the Indiana Pacers (-130)?

This one seems pretty easy. Nasty Nick is a lot of things but “good at football” isn’t chief among them. The Eagles will play to Foles’ strength in this game which is to have him make the available throws and nothing else. I expect ball control mixed in with deep shots. In other words, not the NFC championship. I think Foles tops out at 1 TD.

Meanwhile Joel Embiid, former Kansas standout and current NBA phenom, can’t step on the court without recording at least two blocks. His biggest hurdle is actually stepping on the court. As long as he suits up, I think this bet is safe. Unfortunately, that’s rarely a guarantee.

Which total will be higher: The temperature at kickoff in Minnesota (-120) VS the total points scored in the first quarter (-120)?

According to meteorologists, the scheduled weather is negative. That’s great news for bettors. Unfortunately, Vegas isn’t as stupid as we are, and would null and void any bets on sub-zero temperature.

But let’s just say it’s 9 degrees. I would still favor the weather. Did you know the Patriots have never scored a first quarter Super bowl td? It’s not as surprising as you’d think. The nerves of playing in the Super Bowl is overwhelming. It takes times for teams, even ones who’ve been there before, to find their groove. If the weather is over 7 degrees I think that will be higher. At most, the teams will trade field goals. Otherwise go for the game score. And if the weather is sub-zero and nothing is cancelled, finish Vegas off with a huge wager.

Patriots (-4.5) Vs Eagles Over/Under 48

Ah crap. I ran out of fun things. Very well.

I really did most of my analysis in pieces through these two posts but, I think it’ll be an oddly close game. The Eagles have more talent at every position but two. This sounds great, except when you realize the two positions are coach and quarterback. That will neutralize a  lot of the Eagles’ advantage. I expect Belicheat to take away the run game (whether it’s via game plan, or bribery the refs for a few holding calls) and forcing Nasty Nick to throw. Foles did not earn his made up nickname by being incredibly skilled*****. Oh no, it was by being nasty. Not the way cool kids say it. Like the way your parents do.

I expect the game to go similarly to the Jaguars vs Patriots game two weeks ago. Remember when you thought Blake Bortles was going to the Super Bowl? Wait, you really did? God, you’re gullible. Do you beleive telemarketers aren’t trying to sell you things?

We’ve seen this story play out before. The Eagles will jump out hot, making defensive plays and moving the ball efficiently. I’d expect a pair of rushing touchdowns early giving the Eagles a two score cushion. Right before the half, Brady will get some points, and that doubt will begin to set in. And after that doubt becomes real, and the halftime show is as bad as everybody feared, the Patriots will bring on the hurt.

The Patriots wear teams down with their four yard passes, their effective runs and being completely unlikable. They will take the lead late, probably on a field goal and win.

I think a huge part of the game comes down to Nick Foles. I hate to put the game on one player, but isn’t it true? Is Foles the guy from the NFC championship game, or even the guy who had a 27-2 touchdown to interception ratio a few seasons ago?

Or is he the guy who Jeff Fisher coached? Or the guy who had at least 20 interceptions dropped in the magical 27-2 season?

Wouldn’t it be justice for a former Jeff Fisher quarterback to win the Super Bowl the year he was fired? Think all the guys who turned their career around this year just from having the Fisher stink washed away. It would be a storybook ending. Unfortunately story book endings don’t happen. I think, yet again the villains will win. Where’s the crazed Jet fan running on the field to attack Brady? He’s about 16 years late.

My guess is 23-20 Pats. That means I’m taking the Eagles with the points. I’m also taking the under. That’s like the most boring bet ever but hey, I’m a boring guy.

Plus by picking the Eagles, I can root for the upset and chant Fly Eagles fly all night.

Oh and see the desecration on Philadelphia. Can you imagine the always sunny episode on it? It would be amazing.

Good luck this weekend, and remember, if you lose, I’m only running an entertainment blog and not a gambling column. If you win, you owe me 15%.

*I’m throwing out a made up nickname and seeing if it sticks.
*That wasn’t sexual. I think.
*Start betting against me now if you want to have a shirt before the end of the SuperBbowl.

****A close second is every time LeBron is praised for something and complains about it to the media.

*****I’d rather not know how he earned Big Dick Nick personally, though I bet I could guess why in three tries.