Super Bowl Prop Bets or The Fastest Way to Go Broke

There are plenty ways to make money. Unfortunately, a lot of those plans involved knowledge, dedication and hard work. In fact, most professions require you to wear pants on the facilities. Nobody has time for that. Why not try to take the easy way out with some Super Bowl Prop Bets instead?

What are the odds that you strike it rich betting on various props today? Oh, they’re extremely low. In fact, the evidence suggests you’re better off soaking your money in oil overnight and lighting it aflame. This way, you don’t suffer from the heartache of losing, and get some warmth out of it.

Bloggin Hood’s betting advice track record, is, how do you say it? Ah yes, absolutely dog shit. We tried this is 2018 over two posts and the results were not ideal. However, I’m as stubborn as a mule and twice as stupid. We’re going to try it again. I’ve pick a wide array of props. A couple I actually feel good about, and about 15 others I added for ridiculous commentary.

Also, no offense to the mules out there.

What is a prop?

You know, in all the years I’ve watched football, listening and reading to people discuss prop bets, I don’t think I’ve ever heard a definition. I’m not sure anybody has a textbook definition of it. It’s one of those words sports fans accept, but couldn’t define if they had to. I’ll give it a shot.

I would consider any specific bet on a game that’s not strictly on the outcome of the game a prop bet. Traditionally, people only bet on the winner of the game based on a point spread. During the Super Bowl, you can bet on everything. This ranges from player’s yardage totals, first touchdown, outcomes of specific drives, and absurd nonsense like the length of the national anthem. These other options are Prop Bets.

With the advent of Sports Betting apps, Prop Bets are available year round these days. In theory, these bets give people more control over their wagers. You might not have a feel for the outcome of a game, but you might feel confident in a player’s performance. Or, you might want to throw down $20 on a random player nobody knows to scare the first TD at +5000. Hey, you do you.

Despite the novelty of Prop Bets wearing off a bit, being more available than ever, this is the day they really stand out. Non sports fans will develop strong opinions on players they don’t know, and believe they have a read on the Gatorade jugs. As pregame drinking turns to chugging, millions of dollars will be bet on the dumbest things. Only the bookies and websites will profit.

Boy, isn’t Super Bowl Sunday the best?

Explaining the Odds

For the most part, betting on props are pretty simple. The Prop will lay out an over/under line, and you’ll pick the side you think is true. For example, one prop asks if Patrick Mahomes will throw for over or under 325.5 yards today. You have to decide if you think he’ll throw for more or less than 326 yards. This part is easy.

If this part is not easy, our school systems have failed us all.

The confusing part is what your return will be. When you see this prop, your options will read as follows:

Over 325.5 (-118) Under 325.5 (-118).

What the hell does that mean? This is like when 8th grade Math starting introducing letters instead of just numbers into the equation.

The number in parenthesis indicates your odds. In this case, -118 represents how much money you would have to bet to win $100. For this prop, you would need to bet $118 to win 100. You don’t have to bet $100 of course, but that’s how the calculation works. When you bet $20 and win, you’re going to pocket a total of less than $40.

If you see a positive number, that is the total you will profit if you bet $100. If those minus signs were pluses, betting $100 on this specific prop would net you $118. You would cash out a total of $218. Not bad.

Obviously, the higher the negative number, the less you will win, but the more likely it will happen. The greater the positive number, the better your potential profit, but the less likely it will happen. A lot of the props I discuss balance out the odds with profit potential. Sometimes, the odds make a wager worth it.

I’m also an idiot, so take that into consideration.

The Prop List

These prop bets and odds were taking from Draft Kings website late last night. If you want to see what else is out there, here’s the link. Please don’t try to bet if you aren’t of age, it’s illegal in your state/country or should not be betting.

https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/3?category=game-lines&subcategory=game

The odds will change, but as long as there aren’t big swings, this is what I’d do. I also wouldn’t really bet on the absurd props, but if you want to throw down on those, I won’t stop you. I mean, it’s your money.

If you shouldn’t be betting, I can’t fathom why you chose this, of all Bloggin Hood articles. Here’s this Peppa Pig Script I wrote. It’s relevant in the sense there’s pig skin involved.

Annual Dumbest Prop Bet

Coin Toss

Heads (-103) Tails (-103)

According to multiple reports, people have feverishly bet on the coin toss. This is one of the dumber prop bets of all time. I mean, we all know the odds of a coin flip right?

Of course we do. Tails never fails baby. Vegas is willing giving you free money on your bet. Don’t be stupid. Hammer this free space with as much as you can manage. Bet a whole farm, and you’ll walk away with nearly 2 full farms. Think of the crops.

I can’t even footnote this based on the social media interactions I see daily. Do not bet the farm on a coin flip. All betting sites will never offer true even odds on the coin flip. You get better odds by betting the coin toss with a friend or family member than a betting site. If you have to wager money on coin rotations, take that off line. At least the other props offer better odds and don’t exclusively revolve around luck.

Besides the obvious 50-50 proposition, you should not bet a farm because that is not a currency. Most reputable betting sites do not except land in a bet. However, they will seize your assets when you finish out my recommended betting card. They won’t even wait for the game. They’ll take the deed to your call and home before kick off.

Dumb Bets with Plus Odds

Gatorade Color

(Orange +125), Red (+200), Yellow/Green/Lime (+300), Clear/Water (+350), Blue (+700), Purple (+800)

Here’s a big brain bet. Both the Chiefs and Bucs have red in their primary colors. I don’t even have to build a ridiculous narrative here. I think it’s either red or water, as the NFL needs to recoup all their lost ticket revenue somehow.

Do I think it’s wise to bet on Gatorade colors? Well, it’s about as wise as drinking Gatorade and thinking it’s a healthy alternative to soda. Still, with both teams sharing a main color, I’d roll with it. If I had to make a pick.

First Offensive play from Scrimmage

Pass (-124) Run (+100)

The first quarter of the Super Bowl is notorious for being a slow burn. Most teams come out tight and play calling leans conservative. A run makes the most sense. With so many eyes on the game, a handoff doesn’t rely on on as much timing as a pass play. It can ease the offense into the game.

Smart people would expect these two teams to pass the ball. Tampa doesn’t have a great running game and Andy Reid often forgets he has running backs. There’s a reason a pass play is -124. The first play (and really the majority of them) should be a pass. It’s the smart thing to do.

However, you’re not on a smart website, are you? I would take the better odds on a run to start the game. Sure, there could be a shitty three yard pass that’s basically a run that ruins this bet. But so far, I’d argued about a coin flip and Gatorade colors. At least this one makes sense.

Any scoring drive to take less time than the singing of the National Anthem

Yes (-355) No (+250)

I understand both teams have big playmakers. The Chiefs can score on any play and the two minute offense exists for a reason. A field goal right before the half or a turnover makes yes a winner very easily.

But isn’t +250 really good odds on this? The average National Anthem is sung at 1:56. That would require a successful two minute drill or a quick strike. Keep in mind, teams would need to score in an actually two minute drill which isn’t quite as common as Madden makes it seem. I don’t feel confident in this bet, but I like the odds of no.

Also, any goober could bet on the national anthem bet. Don’t be a goober. Use this bet instead. At least it’s something to talk about on Monday.

Any Field Goal or Extra Point Attempt to hit uprights or crossbar

Yes (+375) no (-590)

This one seems brutal. We’re really going to make props banking on a kicker’s pain? I guess so. In fact, I recommend picking on the kicker’s pain.

Realistically, the odds of this happening are low. If kicks are missed, they’ll likely miss the goal posts entirely. This bet is all about the odds, which truthfully aren’t even that good. However, it beats lighting a $20 on fire.

It’s close, but it does beat it.

1st half 2-minute warning occur with exactly 2:00 on the clock

Yes (-400) No (+295)

These odds seem off to me. I get that many teams will let the clock run to 2 minutes and take the timeout. However, both of these QBs are smart, and both of these coaches are aggressive. If the opportunity arises, wouldn’t either team snap the ball at 2:02 and run a play before stopping the clock? I’d think so.

There’s also a chance a team will take a timeout right before the 2 minute timeout to force the opposition to punt and conserve extra time. the possibilities are endless. Or, you know, just really those two scenarios, but those aren’t bad.

At 3-1, I do think this is worth it, despite being a pretty stupid bet. Of course, there’s a reason the other option is -400, but I like the odds.

Andy Reid Based Bets

First Team to use Coaches Challenge

Bucs (-112) Chiefs (-112)

First Team to Call Timeout

Bucs (-112) Chiefs (-112)

These two bets are the same exact thing. While they provide significantly less than even odds (+100), I’m shocked they aren’t heavily slanted against the Chiefs.

Everybody loves Andy Reid. Other than 49ers fans, the vast majority of America was rooting for Reid to win his first Super Bowl last year. He’s an offensive genius, an extremely underrated coach, and a very likable guy.

But he sucks and managing his timeouts.

Andy Reid loves burning timeouts for no reason. He also isn’t against an early, questionable challenge. I could see Reid challenging the spot on a meaningless 5 yard gain. Reid will lose the challenge, and a timeout, making both of these bets a winner. If you can parlay them, you’ll get much better odds.

Now, there’s a chance Reid fails to call a timeout in the first half. He’s known to forget about these plays just like he forgets the running game. However, I think the smart money is on the Chief winning both of these races. And by smart, I mean funny.

Boring Ass Actual Football Bets

First TD

Rather than make one pick, I’ll give three. This all depends on your prediction of the game, and truthfully, who gets the ball first.

Rob Gronkowski (+1400) – I like the odds here a lot. I could definitely see Gronk scoring after a long methodical drive. However, I did read a stat that Brady has only scored once on his nine opening Super Bowl drives. That was only a field goal. The fact that he has nine opening Super Bowl Drives is nauseating. Where’s Eli when we need him?

Despite the history, a Gronk to Brady TD would hurt me to my core. Therefore, it’s extremely likely to happen early.

Travis Kelce (+650) – If the Chiefs methodically move the ball with ease, I think Kelce is the most likely to score. However, this seems a bit too easy, which is why I’d lean Gronk.

Tyreek Hill (+650) – Of course, these temas played earlier this year, and Hill had 269 yards. This included two first quarter TDs of 75 and 44 yards. Based on a matchup this season, Hill is probably the smart pick. He’d also decide the Scoring Drive Vs the National Anthem bet real quick. But the defense has to adjust, don’t they? Maybe watch some tape Bucs?

All three seem like the obvious candidates, but I’d do Gronk for the odds first. At least my anger would leave me flush with cash.

Player to throw the first interception

Mahomes (+140) Brady (-177)

The odds are terrible, but we’ve seen Brady throw picks when he faces pressure, especially up the middle. On the other hand, we don’t really see Mahomes throw picks at all. I would think Brady will throw a pick in this game, so he has to be the choice. However, you’d have to parlay this with something else to make it worth anything.

Otherwise, pass on betting and enjoy watching Brady looked dejected. Yes, I’m fully aware he has 6 rings. Let me have a small victory. I deserve it.

Tom Brady Rushing Yards

Over .5 (+140) under .5 (-177)

Throughout his career, Tom Brady has been the master of the 3rd/4th down and 1 QB sneak. I think he’s ran it 100 times, and I only remember it failing once. In a super important game, you know there’s going to be a 3rd and inches play where Brady will get the first down by diving forward. That’s really all you need to win this bet AND you’re getting odds.

Keep in mind that kneels count against rushing yards, but sacks do not. Unless you expect Tampa to win (which is possible, but…), I doubt Brady takes a knee. I don’t think this is “free” money or anything, but I feel pretty confident here.

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards

Over 77.5 (+100) under 77.5 (-124)

Here is where our journey takes us to narrative street. At this point, we begin to believe our assumptions of the game as fact and place wagers accordingly.

I expect the Bucs to be down in the game, especially in the second half. Tampa will have to throw. It won’t necessarily be garbage yards, but there will be some stat padding on prevent defenses. Godwin, to me, is the most likely to hit his over under total. Other players certainly can, but there’s more varience on Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Gronk.

If you want a longer shot, consider Scotty Miller, who needs to cross 20.5 yards at the same odds as above. That’s one moderately deep catch. That’s not terrible, but Miller is like the 5th option.

Darrell Williams Carries

Over 8.5 (+115), Under 8.5 (-143)

Cylde Edwards-Helaire Carries

Over 7.5 (-143) Under 7.5 (+115)

So, remember when I said Andy Reid forgets about his running backs? How could you? I’ve said it roughly 800 times. Well, so far, Darrell Williams has outperformed Edwards-Helaire in the postseason. Helaire has been injured so that’s not entirely fair, but he hasn’t been the same player since a hot start to the year.

There’s a chance Helaire, a 1st round draft pick this year, is the feature back in this game. There’s also a chance both backs get 5 carries each and go under. I’m not entirely sure, but I like the odds on Williams, who’s averaging 5.0 on 26 carries over two games to lead the running attack and Helaire to be a complimentary piece. Don’t forget, last Super Bowl, a different D Williams almost run MVP.

What I do know is LeVeon Bell didn’t get a rushing total prop and that’s hilarious.

Travis Kelce Catches

Over 8.5 (+115) Under 8.5 (-136)

I know 9 catches is a lot, but Travis kelce seems like he reaches this total by halftime. I expect this to be a reletively competitve game, and Kelce will be peppered with targets. Tyreek Hill slaughtered the Bucs in their regular season matchup. The Bucs will have to adjust and focus on Hill, meaning Kelce should be the primary target in the first half. I’d expect this to go over before the 4th. Give me the odds here.

Patrick Mahomes 3+TD Passes and Chiefs win

(Yes +110)

So, this is a Draft Kings auto parlay. There is no option to bet against this prop. Instead, you either take it or leave it. I decided to take it. Do I really need to explain why?

Fine, I will. Patrick Mahomes is frigging good at football and the Chiefs should win. Sometimes, the logic isn’t complicated. The biggest issue is if Mahomes runs for a score, it will not count toward the 3 TDs. I don’t think that’ll affect much.

MVP

The obvious bet is Mahomes but the odds are terrible. The only other realistic bet is Brady, but I don’t think the Bucs will win. Our only other possible winners would be the main Chief playmakers.

Travis Kelce (+1300) – It would take a gargantuan effort for Kelce to wrestle the MVP from Mahomes. He would need a catch total in the teens, 150+ yards, and multiple scores. Mahomes would have to be fairly pedestrian for Kelce to get it honestly. One or two highlight reel plays, and Mahomes locks up the MVP with a win.

Tyreek Hill (+1200) – This is the safer bet of the two. Hill did torch them already. Even if the defense zeros in on him, Hill has the speed to beat them anyway. Plus, if he scores a deep TD early, he’ll have the highlight reel play needed to win the MVP. Keep in mind, if the first matchup was the Super bowl, Hill wins the award easily. He doesn’t need a high number of catches to win, but definitely 150+ yards and 2 scores.

For a long shot, you could pick a defensive player who could have multiple sacks with forced fumbles, or INTs with a TD. However, that’s all guess work. If you like Tampa, perhaps a shot on Shaq Barrett or Jason Peirre Paul (Yes, he is still around) might be worth a $20 gamble. On draft Kings, Barrett is +5,000 and JPP is +7,000. I’d guess you can get better odds elsewhere too.

Cross Sport Degenerate Bets

Devin White Tackles (Both solo & assists) (+108) VS Deandre Ayton rebounds (-134)

Mike Evans Receiving yards (+108) VS Lowest round 4 score at Waste Management Phoenix (-134)

I do not have a pick on either of these bets. Despite these appearing every year, I still can’t believe these are a thing. Betting on one sport is difficult enough. Now, we’re going to cross bet between two sports to try and improve our luck? They aren’t even good odds.

If you hate money, and if you’ve read this far, I know you do, Draft Kings has a ton of these. I picked two at random, but there’s about 30. There’s even a few including the Ball family. Lavar would be proud if he was still relevant.

I Didn’t Forget the Game

Chiefs -3 (-113) Bucs +3 (-108)

I don’t think Mahomes should only be giving 3 points against anyone at this point. I thought the Bills would give a potentially injured Mahomes a great game, and the Chiefs steamrolled them after trailing 9-0. The Chiefs seem to be the only team in recent memory that can barely care about the regular season and turn it on when necessary.

Now, the Bucs can win this game. Tom Brady would love to stick it to the Pats. But for my sanity, this can’t happen. If I have to spend the next month hearing about Brady being the best athlete of all time (they’ll go there) and have to continue hoping the Mets sign Jake Frigging Odorizzi, I’ll snap.

To win, the Bucs will have to get pressure on Mahomes, taking advantage of their missing LT. But I think Kelce and Hill are too much for the Bucs to handle. I mean, we’ve already seen this. If anything, the Chiefs are playing better than they were in week 11. I’m surprised this line isn’t at least -3.5. I’d pick the Chiefs with no hesitation up to -6.5, and probably beyond that too.

Give me Mahomes and save me the misery. I’m begging you Patrick. Your father was a Met. Do it for the club.

Total Points

Under 56 (-110) Over 56 (-110)

So I hate this for multiple reasons. Firstly, betting the under is so boring. It’s like going to a restaurant and getting a tuna sandwich. I mean, if you’re going to order something you can make at home, what’s the point? In the same manner, I could just not make a pick, rather than hate the fact I’m going under.

Most Super bowls start slow, and truthfully, a little ugly. I don’t know if it’s the jitters, or the extra week off. I strongly considered putting props on both teams putting on their first drive, but the offenses are too explosive for that risk.

Then again, I started off picking Gatorade colors and coin flips, so what to be consistent Bloggin Hood.

I expect the scoring to pick up in the 2nd quarter, and 2nd half, but I think if we have a 3-0 first quarter, the damage will be done. 56 is 7 TDs, which seems like a touch high for this Super Bowl.

My final piece of evidence? The first matchup was a 27-24 final. For those without access to a calculator, that’s 51 points. How could the same teams possible score 5 more points in a completely different game? My logic is flawless. I rest my case.

Bloggin Hood’s Mini Hot Dog Consumption

Over 29.5 (-1500) Under 29.5 (+1400)

Oh, sorry. Action on this bet is closed. Maybe you can get in on the action next year.

Also, easy over. WAY over.