The Robinson Cano Suspension or The Wilpons’ Last Disaster

Well, Bloggin Hood has done it again. After finally caving and writing about the Mets, I jinxed them. I jinxed them hard. Met fans can’t have nice things because of me. What are the odds Robinson Cano gets busted for PEDs on the day after my Steve Cohen Hype article?. Roughly 98%. Can the Mets survive missing their overpaid, aging second baseman?

I mean, that’s the point of this post. I’m not going to answer it in the first paragraph for Christ sake. Have some patience.

This is the final stain of the Wilpon regime. A big giant uncensored F you to the fan base for being happy. No, the Wilpons themselves didn’t pull the trigger on the Cano trade, but they definitely had a say in it. There’s no way Brodie Van Wagenen acquired Cano without Wilpon approval. The only way to properly discuss the damage of Robinson Cano is to relive portions of the past few Met years. The curse hasn’t been broken yet.

For those of you unaware of Brodie Van Wagenen* ¹, congratulations. I imagine you enjoy watching your favorite teams and aren’t angry at 95% of their decisions.

Before late 2018, Van Wagenen was a sports agent. His three biggest clients all happen to be key Mets talent. Honestly, it’s frigging bizarre. His first blockbuster contract signing was Robinson Cano, who signed a 10 year, $240 million contract with Seattle in 2013. This seemed like a huge overpay at the time. Cano was a great player, but quickly on the wrong side of the 30. None of these contracts ever end well. Consider Albert Pujols, an all time great that hasn’t come close to returning value on his mega deal. Cano was no Pujols when he signed the deal.

Brodie’s second major splash was Yoenis Cespedes. In 2016, he got Cespedes a 3 year, $75 million contract that included an opt out clause. Cespesdes had a fantastic 2016, so he obviously opted out. At the last hour, Cespedes spurned the Nationals, and re-upped with the Mets for 4 years, $110 million. At the time, this felt like a huge win for the franchise and a serious step to annual contention.

In traditional Mets fashion, it was an unmitigated disaster. Cespedes played 127 games over the length of the contract, hitting just 28 homeruns. He suffered bizarre injury after bizarre injury, including multiple injuries involving hunting on his ranch, and dismounting from a horse. Normally, bizarre injury stories cover up something nefarious, but I believe this. Stephen King couldn’t make this stuff up.

I can’t complain too much about the Cespedes contracts honestly. In the moment, letting Cespedes walk was a PR nightmare. The end result was a total disaster, especially how his last season ended. Cespedes left the Mets without seeming to inform the team until hours after, citing Covid concerns. If the concerns were true, I don’t fault the man. But why did he leave the team first? It’s suspect at the very least. Thanks for freeing up at bats for Dominic Smith though.

Brodie’s third major client is Jacob deGrom. Gee, that one worked out well, didn’t it. Early in 2018, well before Brodie became the Gm, he stated that the Mets needed to offer deGrom a very generous contract extension. Months later, he became the GM, and was on the opposite side of the negotiation. Brodie played hardball with deGrom, his former client. It was contentious, with the typically mild manner deGrom saying he’d request an innings limit to stay healthy. Fortunately the two sides agreed to a contract in the 11th hour.

I wasn’t stressed about it at all.

Before we circle back to Cano, does anyone else think this is bizarre? Van Wagenen is an agent for 2 prominent Mets players, and then becomes the GM. Of course he renounced any rights to be an agent, but I mean, he was still an agent. It seems incredibly sketchy. Then again, the Mets paid finances with Madoff Money. Minor leaguers were paid in unmarked, non-sequential bills.

Also, Brodie didn’t have any front office experience. Putting a former agent in the front office is odd, but as a GM? Only the Wilpons would ever agree to this shit. I bet at his interview, he promised to sign deGrom to a low ball deal. The Wilpons hired him on the spot.

Typically, when a new Mets GM is hired, they try and make a splash transaction immediately. The Wilpons want the free publicity on the back page of the newspapers. Rumors swirled that the Mets would dump infamous strikeout king Jay Bruce among other ancillary pieces for Robinson Cano. Early, there were rumors we were going to get Cano, Mitch Haniger and Edwin Diaz for a virtual salary dump. It seemed too good to be true.

Oh, it was.

Firstly, Cano had been suspended for PEDs in 2018! This wasn’t something that happened years ago. It happened in the season that had just ended. Why did upper management not care about that? Plus, nobody in their right mind wanted Cano’s contract. If anybody should know this, it was the former agent turned GM who negotiated the damn thing. MLB should have opened up a collusion investigation immediately, just so the Mets didn’t do something stupid. And trust me, it was almost even worse than it sounds.

Before a trade occurred, rumors intensified that Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil would be traded. These were two of the only positional players who did anything in 2018. We were actively making our team worse by trying to get older. Thankfully, we didn’t do this, but the end result remained a disaster.

The Mets did acquire Cano and Diaz without giving up any current major league talent. Oh sure, Bruce, Anthony Swarzak and Gerson Baustista were dealt, but they weren’t major pieces. But we also gave up two prospects. Justin Dunn, a pitcher who’s already cracked the major leagues, and future star Jarred Kelenic.

Edwin Diaz has not be an electric, lights out closer. His numbers are nowhere near what they were with Seattle. However, advanced statistic show he’s still dominant… Just not in any pressure situation. That’s not ideal for a closer. Ultimately, I think Diaz needs to be a set up man for the Mets who realistically don’t have a closer then. I will IP ban anyone who suggests Jerrys Familia in the comments. I won’t rule out a law suit either.

Kelenic hasn’t played a major league game yet, but scouts universally list him as a top prospect with all star potential. He had demolished minor league competition since the trade, slashing a .293/.364/.540 while topping 20 Home runs and steals in 2019 across three levels. Oh and he’s 21. There’s a nonzero chance we gave the Mariners the next Ken Griffey Jr. Cano is old enough to be his father.

But hey, Cano disgraced his legacy with two PED suspensions, so there’s that.

Van Wegenen wanted to acquire a big name player as his first real move as a GM. Cano was a star in New York for years, but with the Yankees, not the Mets. Usually, the Yankees don’t let talent walk unless they’re declining considerably, or far too expensive. Cano was a fan favorite; he doesn’t go to Seattle if the Yankees wanted to keep him. Van Wegenen didn’t realize that, and bragged about bringing a superstar back to New York.

Did he mean when Kelenic comes to Citi Field as a visitor in 2024 and hits 7 Homeruns over a weekend?

I have to assume Brodie’s relationship with Cano helped push this trade. I don’t have any evidence of that, but why else pursue this deal? The Mets needed offense, but there were dozens of avenues to pursue. Most of them didn’t involve taking on a pricey, aging veteran in exchange for a blue chip prospect. But hey, I’m not a professional GM. As of today, neither is Brodie. I wonder why? At least he got the Mariners to eat $4 million of his $24 million annual salary.

Normally, losing a player for the entire year is bad. If the Wilpons called the shots, it would be a disaster. But this is a new era. And you know what? I’d argue the Mets are better without Cano. It’ll hurt their depth, and it may prevent the team from making a big trade for a luxury like Francisco Lindor, but the Mets will be a better team in 2021 for this.

I swear I’m not just bitter for giving up fake Ken Griffey Jr. But I swear to god if Kelenic brings back the backwards hat, I’ll never get over it.

Let’s give credit to Cano for his 2020 season. He was actually really good. He hit .316/.352/.544 in 49 games and had 10 home runs. On paper, that’s a heart of the order hitter. A near .900 On Base + Slugging percentage is an elite total. But these numbers don’t tell the whole story.

In fact, no numbers from 2020 tell the whole story because it was a 60 game season. More than ever, a hot couple of weeks could influence stats** ². I think you have to combine this with his 2019, where he hit .256/.307/.428 in 107 games (and only 13 HRs) for a more reasonable picture. He did have a wrist injury in 2019, which saps power. His true value lies somewhere in the middle. Let’s say .275/.330/.470 with 20 HRs? That’s a very useful player, but it’s not a superstar. It sure isn’t a $24 million a year player.

Cano also missed significant time in the past two seasons. He was on the DL in 2018 for the wrist injury and missed 11 games in 2019. Injuries are fluky, but he’s 38 this year. He’s not making it through 150 games anymore, which he did from 2007-2017, ending because of, you guessed it, PEDs.

Cano’s multiple busts suggests he needed help recovering. Perhaps its age, or wear and tear from 15 MLB seasons. Either way, a full season would have been a pipe dream. Cano would have been valuable while on the field, but could you guarantee 120 games? How many would he DH for, assuming the NL using it for 2021*** ³? The slash numbers might be pretty, but if he only players in 95 games, it’s not as impactful.

Cano plays solid defense but has limited range. Cano makes plays when the ball is hit at him, but nothing beyond that. The Mets were possibly the worst defensive team in the league last year. Cano was one of their better defenders despite the range. However, he can only play 2B or DH (if allowed). Other players had to play out of position to accommodate, weakening the overall defense.

It’s not fair to blame Cano for this. The team would have been bad in the field no matter what. But come on, the dude took PEDs for a second time in 3 years. He’s getting no passes here.

So how do the Mets replace Cano? There’s a couple of options that give me a lot of hope.

Sign a replacement

When the Cano news hit, Mets fans weren’t that upset. In fact, some jokingly crediting Steve Cohen for pushing Cano’s test so he’d be suspended. The reason? Suspended players don’t get paid. That means the Mets get the $20 million they owe Cano to spend this offseason. There’s additional reports that they will also collect the $4 million the Mariners pay for Cano, though I’ve read conflicting reports on that.

In the Wilpon era, fred and Jeff were pocketing the shit out of that $20 million. They’d make some bullshit excuse about how the money is tied. Then, they’d raise beer prices by 30%.

In the new, invigorating Cohen era, that money is going to players. The new owner has already stated that he plans on using the $20 million toward free agents. Imagine that? An owner using freed player salary money on player’s salaries. What a concept.

Should the Mets choose to sign a free agent, the front runner is DJ LeMahieu. In 2018, the Mets chose to sign Jed Lowrie over LeMahieu. Lowrie was arguably more frustrating than both Cano and Cespedes, potentially being Brodie’s worst move. LeMahieu earned MVP votes and absolutely crushed as a Yankee. He’s already 32, and likely expensive, but can play multiple positions and bats righty. The Mets are predominately a Left hand hitting team, so this does matter.

A cheaper option is Kolten Wong, who isn’t a superstar, but a solid player who shouldn’t break the bank. Wong would likely be a short term option, but with a fairly weak free agent market, his price might be slightly higher. Other, less desirable options include Johnathan Villar, Cesar Hernandez, and Jonathan Schoop. If you said “Who?” to all the names in this paragraph, that’s understandable.

Personally, I’d rather not sign a 2B other than a depth piece. A guy like Schoop might be a decent bench bat that should be relatively inexpensive. The Mets should use their cash on positions of need.

Andres Gimenez

The Mets farm system isn’t as barren as it was a couple of yeas ago, in part thanks to Cano. Most of the Mets prospects are either multiple years away, or already on the roster. Gimenez likely would make his debut at some point on 2021 if not for COVID. Gimenez was added to the opening day roster after the minor league season was cancelled. It was a surprising move but it paid off.

Gimenez played n 49 games, but some of those were merely as a defensive replacement. He shined brightest when he played SS for an injured Amed Rosario, flashing a good glove and some timely hits. Gimenez is not a power hitter, and his glove isn’t perfect. He had one awful game where he committed multiple errors in an inning and probably cost the Mets the win. However, I do trust the glove more than nearly any option currently on the roster. He needs to play if he’s not traded.

I think 2B wastes his defense. Assuming Gimenez is with the Mets, he should play 3^rd. If a trade occurs and we do not acquire a SS, I think Gimenez will play there. Rosario hasn’t developed into a gold glove. I think Gimenez might have leaped him on the depth chart.

There’s a chance Rosario plays 2B as well, but I think there’s going to be a shake up and he’s the most likely player to be dealt. I wouldn’t mind giving Rosario one more year myself, but if there’s a good trade out there, they need to take it.

Jeff McNeil

Sometimes, the obvious answer is the correct one. I think we’re all overthinking it. McNeil should have been the 2B starting in 2019 anyway. He excelled in 2018, and then had to play out of position over the past two years to get on the field.

At this point, McNeil is a better hitter than Cano. I don’t think he’s a power bat, though he did hit 23 homeruns and had 38 doubles in 2019. But the Mets don’t need power, they need table setters. McNeil gets on base, via hits and walks, and is the perfect #2 hitter. Somehow, McNeil still feels undervalued. He’s a lifetime .319 hitter, and the shortened season was his worst year. He hit .311 despite a early season slump.

McNeil isn’t the best defensive player, but he’s best position is 2B. This allows a better defender to play 3B or the OF. If we’re not worried about defense, Dom Smith can play left field. Even if we signed LeMahieu and traded for Lindor, I’d play McNeil at 2B, let LeMahieu man 3^rd, and daydream about winning games 14-2.

Sign Jed Lowrie

If the Wilpons own the team, this is what would happen.

Just kidding. Jed Lowrie doesn’t exist. He’s a figment of the old regime’s imagination.

At any other point in Mets history, Cano’s suspension would have been let another chapter of “lol mets”. However, this might be a positive. The Mets might have a stronger roster because of a suspension. Leave it to 2020 to spin everything we know on it’s head.

1. *I will lot call him BVW. That type of nickname implies he deserves any sort of credit. He gets none.
2. **I will admit now that when I do a 2021 Mets preview, I will not mention any sort of shortened season stats for Conforto and Dominic Smith. I’m just going to call them MVP candidates and delete any one who prevents facts to counter it.
3. *** I expect the NL will use the DH sooner than later. If it’s back in 2021, it’s a huge boost to the Mets offense and potentially defense. The 2020 winter meetings will decide it’s fate.