RB Positional Preview Or Too Many Questions, Not Enough Answers

Today’s analogy won’t be the best because I’m not great at keeping up with movies and TV shows. The amount of movies I’ve seen is embarrassing. Forget about the classics, I haven’t even seen blockbusters I need to watch to be considered a human being. Have I seen Black Panther or Stranger Things yet? I’d rather not answer that question. However, I usually watch MXC on Sundays, so really, who watching real classics, huh? If you’re not down with Vic Romano and Kenny Blankenship, what are you even doing with your life? You know, besides being productive.

For this example, I want you to think of a movie or TV show you couldn’t wait to watch. Game of Thrones would have been my answer, but I already semi-ranted against that yesterday and don’t need this to be a bash session. Yet. I haven’t been to the movies in years, but I’d say that last one I was really excited about was Creed. I, of course, didn’t see it in theaters, but watched in on a flight months after release, it was pretty good.

But for this example, let’s say you’re ready to go to the movies for the opening night. You’re extremely excited for it. This movie is your jam. You buy the tickets, get a tub of $25 dollar popcorn, with a side $16 soda, and sit down in the perfect seat ready to watch. And then, as soon as the 85 minutes of previews end, you’re ready for the movie. But then, it happens. Something that ruins the experience entirely. The person sitting next to you cannot stop asking questions every five seconds.

Hopefully this person is a friend of family member so it’s not a crime to fling them to another row. Actually, that’s probably still a crime, but there’s a lower chance charges will be assessed. If it’s a stranger, you can try your best to ignore the question, but in my experience, strangers just continue to talk louder and louder until acknowledged, and then ask their idiotic questions. “Who’s that guy?” the moron might ask you. “I don’t know, the movie just started,” you say, hoping they will leave you alone. “Do you think he’s the villain?” the moron responds with no concept of questions, rudeness, or plot structures.

If you happen to be on a date where this happens, I have a good recommendation. Advise your date that you need to use the restroom. Then never return to that state. Trust me, this is the way to handle a bad date. You don’t want to have an awkward conversation, now do you?

We’ve gotten a bit off topic with is unusual for me.

There’s nothing that ruins an anticipated experience quite like a rousing game of 20 questions. You just want to sit and enjoy the movie but your seat neighbor, whoever he or she might be, can’t stop hounding you with questions about every aspect of the movie. Most movies aren’t that complex where questions are needed. People can just sit and watch what’s going on without worry. That’s not going to happen in the culture we have though. We need answers now, or before, and we don’t have time to wait. What’s this guy’s name in the first screen when there’s been no dialogue?! I need to know! 

It’s not always the idiots of society that ruin the movie experience though. A few movies and TV shows make no sense. Occasionally, they are designed this way to keep the audience guessing. This is more effective on a TV show, where the mystery can build for a week before an answer. Movies do follow this pattern occasional, at the risk of the viewers’ brain cells. Inception was, conceptually, a great idea. The only issue was, it didn’t make a lick of sense. People continued to dive into dreams of dreams, and there may have been a third level. People died in dreams, but weren’t dead, unless they were, and we aren’t sure if the DiCaprio character was in the real world or dreaming at the end of the film. Was the intent of all of this to create a mystery and spark discussion? I’d think so. Did it mean I understood what was going on and avoided getting mad at a narrative that was complex for the sake of being complex? No and no.

While I enjoy a good think session every so often (like once a year) when I’m watching something, I want to be entertained first and foremost. If I wanted to be challenged, I’d try to read Infinite Jest again. Now there’s a novel that created more questions than answers. In its 1,200 pages, 200 of which are footnotes*, the story starts about 90% of the way through, then leaps back, and never really connects. The climax of the tale is skipped over entirely, and the author wants you to connect the dots on your own. That’s great, expect some of the dots are in another country and instead of using a pencil, you need to draw lines with a stick through concrete. But other than that, great book.

I want nothing more than fantasy football to be a quiet, enjoyable experience. I want to shut my brain off and draft talented players, and feel confident in my projections on what players are going to do. Unfortunately, this year, Running back is like the movie version of Infinite Jest, directed by Christopher Nolan, and you’re watching it in a room of people who have been contestants on the Bachelor/Bachelorette. In other words, good frigging luck.

I mean, there’s only confusion at the position this year. Usually, that’s the case, but I feel like it’s more than usual. We have Todd Gurley’s knee as possibly the biggest question mark in fantasy. There’s holdouts in Zeke and Melvin Gordon, greatly affecting the first rounds of the draft. But even beyond this, healthy, active backs ranked in the top 12 have tons of questions. Do you have any idea how to rank running back after the first four? Cause I sure didn’t. In fact, I was asking somebody who was sitting next to me while watching MXC. Unfortunately, it was Maid Megan, who requested me to leave the room. And by requested, I mean kicked me out.

Even the first few players have questions next to them. Saquon is a generational talent, but he’s straddled on a team with little options around him and will see tons of 8 and even 9 men in the box. Christian McCaffrey likely had the best season of his career and it’s unclear just how healthy Cam Newton is. Alvin Kamara’s touches seem to fluctuate week to week, and without a few big plays, his value tanks. Ezekiel Elliott may not attend this football season. So yeah, that’s fun.

The best advice, as always, is to take RBs early, and often. You have little choice but to do this., if only because of all these questions. You need to have as many chances to hit a star RB as possible. Without 2 good RBs, you will not win your league, unless you stumble into all-time WR seasons. So, get ready to feel really uncomfortable as you draft a RB with your late first round pick, and question how it isn’t the third round. While you’re laying down trying to recover from your indigestion, may I recommend reading Infinite Jest to past the time?

First Four Picks Tier

• Saquon Barkley
• Christian McCaffrey
• Alvin Kamara
• Ezekiel Elliott

Barkley is the most talented back in the league. His electric and he could catch 100 passes this year. I understand the argument against Barkley at 1. Truly I do. I had him at #2 before this Zeke holdout started heating up. The argument against Barkley is the “talent” around him. Who, other than Evan Engram is even average at their position? Broken Thumbed Sterling Sheppard? Extra Fertile Golden Tate (who’s suspended 4 games)? Whoever replaced human turnstile Erick Flowers? Ok, that last one is an improvement by default, even if it’s an actual turnstile. There’s also the Eli Manning Daniel Jones combo. I worry that the QB play is so atrocious, it leads to 11 men in the box. Seriously, it might. But you know what? Barkley is so good this might not matter.  If you want volume, only Zeke has more guaranteed touches on the table. Assuming Zeke is still holding on when you draft, I’d take Saquon and hope for the best.

McCaffrey did not come off the field at all last year, and proved he could be a dual threat. We knew he was a great receiver, but he also ran the ball effectively, and an argument for him being the #1 pick is there. My knock? His snaps almost have to come down a bit. We also have no idea how Cam’s shoulder looks. I think last season was peak McCaffrey. This year, he’ll be great. I mean, I have him second overall. I just think there’s a bit of a mini gap between him and Saquon.

At his best, Kamara is the unquestioned #1. Unfortunately, we don’t get to see his best as often. The Saints have games where Karama is just not involved. I know he’ll never get the volume like a Zeke. Truthfully he doesn’t need it. But the games where he gets 8 touches are going to sting from your #1 player. You’d think this would be the year he’s fully unleashed, and maybe he will be, but I can’t risk finding out at #1. But if you’re at #4 at you get Kamara, that would be fantastic. Don’t overthink it.

Assuming he shows up to camp in the next week or so, Elliott is the safest pick in fantasy. The team is decent, the line is good and he is the focal point of the offense. Having a mobile QB works in his favor, and eventually, defensives will prevent Dak from scoring 6 TDs a year on rollouts. Seriously NFC East, how do you not see this coming? Even better for Zeke, his reception total spiked after Amari Cooper arrived. You’d think that would work in reverse, but no. Zeke had 71 catches, higher than his first two years combined. If that trend continues, coupled with a likely league lead rushing total, you have a player who should be the #1 pick, but has to be ranked lower for now. Ideally, he’ll show up to camp and then sit out the preseason. Until his arrival though, the other three backs must go ahead of him. If it’s late August and he still hasn’t arrived, I’m not sure what to do. Maybe sign up for a playoff only baseball fantasy league?

Nobody has a clue tier

• David Johnson
• James Connor
• Dalvin Cook
• Nick Chubb
• Le’Veon Bell
• Damien Williams
• Joe Mixon

This is the most confusing tier I’ve ever seen, and we’re talking about mid first to early second round picks. Instead of trying to summarize each in a sentence, I’m going to do a quick pros and cons of each. You’re welcome America.

Johnson

• Pros – Even in one of the worst offenses in recent memory, Johnson finished as an RB1. Disappointing? Sure, but still plenty viable. This year, an up-tempo offense should unleash Johnson, who has an outside shot to reclaim his first overall status.
• Cons – We know nothing about how good Kyler Murray will be. We don’t know if the offense will work in the NFL and we don’t know if any of the other weapons in Arizona will be enough of a threat to keep defenses honest.
• Conclusion – I can’t see Johnson having a worst scenario than he did last year. Even then, he was a top 10 option. If that’s his floor, I think he’s the choice here, especially when you consider the upside.

Connor

• Pros – The Steelers believe in the one back system. Connor was effective when healthy last year, and sits at the top of the depth chart. He’s a talented back, but this is more about the opportunity.
• Cons – The Steels have talked about splitting the backfield. They also liked what they saw out of Jaylen Samuels when he took over after Connor’s injuries. The team may split the work more than in the past, or even worse, make Samuels the lead. Also, Antonio Brown’s departure could hurt the offense as a whole, and close some of the running lanes he helped open up.
• Conclusion – I’ll believe the split in carries when I see it. I think Connor needs to lose the job, and as of now he hasn’t. The Steeler’s RB is one of the most valuable positions in fantasy. Don’t let Connor fall too far.

Dalvin Cook

• Pros – Minnesota wants to run the football and there’s no one to challenge him for touches. Cook is a proven pass catcher and has looked elite whenever he’s been on the field.
• Cons -Durability is not Cook’s game, suffering an ACL tear in his rookie season, and struggling to stay healthy from the recovery in his sophomore year. Honestly, that’s it. He’s a full 16 game slate away from being a top 5 pick.
• Conclusion – If Cook wasn’t an injury risk, I might have ranked him 5^th. The upside is there. Despite not being an elite athlete, he’s looks tremendous in the NFL. I wouldn’t shy away.

Nick Chubb

• Pros – Tied to a great offense, Chubb will start the year with little competition and should be a league leader in touches to ease Baker into his second year.
• Cons – Chubb isn’t really a pass catcher (this might no longer be an issue with Duke Johnson traded). By week 10, Kareem Hunt will be eligible to return, and the Browns wouldn’t have signed him without wanting to use him.
• Conclusion – The Hunt signing was a significant issue to me, but that’s a problem for the second half. You need to play for the week ahead of you. I think Chubb will be good, but he’ll really need to excel to keep the full workload. I expect his numbers to dip in the second half when he concedes more work, but by then, you hopefully have an elite team around Chubb so that it won’t matter much.

  Le’Veon Bell

• Pros – Ok, say what you will about 2018, but Bell avoided putting another year of stress on his body. He should come into this season fresh, without much competition and with a claim as the best all-around back in football. From what we’ve seen, he seems to be in excellent shape, so that 260 pound rumor remains just that.
• Cons – Adam Gase has a history of splitting work even when it’s not appropriate, and is on record of saying he didn’t want to sign Bell. That’s rarely a good sign. We haven’t seen Bell in game action in over a year, and he’ll have a much worse line in New York. Bell’s patient style may not be a fit for the team and it could hurt his stock significantly. Also, he’s still an injury risk, and a suspension risk based on his past. Bell being in shape means we can’t name our teams Taco Bell and giggle about it.
• Conclusion – I think Bell’s pass catching chops saves his value, but there’s no guaranteed he hits 1,000 rushing yards in this offense. People are much higher on Bell than me, and I think that’s because I’m a Jets fan. Why in the world would I think a Jets player could be good?

Damien Williams

• Pros – The main back in an Andy Reid offensive is even more valuable than the same position for the Steelers. The Chiefs offense is likely the best in the league. In his brief run as the main back, Williams looked the part.
• Cons – Williams is not the most talented back, being cut by Miami before ending up as a third stringer on the Chiefs who needed a lot of unfortunate things to happen to play. He has never received more than 50 carries in a season. Andy Reid recently stated that the team would have a time share.
• Conclusion – Talent is great, but opportunity is king in fantasy. It’s a risky pick, (I had Williams as high as #5 at one point) but Williams could be a title winner if he gets the bulk of the work. If you can get him as a discounted RB2 because the room fears a workload split, you might have an elite roster.

Joe Mixon

• Pros – An all-around back who should he could shoulder a full workload a year after an iffy rookie season. Mixon can catch and run, so the need for split work isn’t there.
• Cons – All the talent around Mixon is dropping like flies. The Bengals are down two offensive lineman and AJ Green might miss the first couple weeks of the year, an annual tradition at this point.
• Conclusion – Seemingly a safe first round pick, Mixon now has red flags all over him through no fault of his own (except for his off the field issues). I think he’s the last of this tier by default. If the injury mess wasn’t involved, I’d have taken him over Chubb. As it stands, he’s barely hanging on to his spot here. 

Medical Report Team Tier

• Todd Gurley

I don’t even know, man. I’ve heard several doctors on podcasts or TV say they wouldn’t draft Gurley at all. The team moved up to draft a new running back, and all indications are that Gurley won’t be used nearly as much. This seems cut and dry.

But then, you think about how good he was last season. Even in a reduced role, there’s plenty of opportunity for Gurley to be useful. And for all we know, the talk around the knee isn’t nearly as serious as it sounds.

But he probably wouldn’t have sat for most of the super bowl if that was true though. My best advice is to avoid Gurley if you can. But if we get to the mid third round, and you love your first two picks and want to go for the fences, I get it. Heck, I’ll probably do it and immediately regret it. There’s little chance Gurley plays in the pre-season, so we won’t have a clue until week 1. That’s going to be great.

New Era Tier

• Kerryon Johnson
• Marlon Mack
• Aaron Jones
• Josh Jacobs

Theo Reddick’s release opens the door for Kerryon to be an excellent player this year. The biggest issue he has is splitting work with lessor backs. Last year, he struggled to get work over LeGarrette Blount for Christ’s sake. However, with the Lions shifting to a running team, he should get work even if he has to split carries. He’s the only receiving back in town now, perfect for Matt Stafford’s check down or INT play style. However, don’t be surprised if CJ Anderson is far more involved than we’d want.

If only Mack could catch. He’s got all the pieces you need – good team around him, no real threat to his work load, and a high-octane offense. Even the line, the bane of the Colts existence for years, is pretty good now. The biggest problem for Mack is he’s somewhat situational. If the team is down, he’s not going to be on the field much. However, if they are up, and even Andrew Luck’s INT love can’t prevent them from winning this year, Mack should be a prime benefactor. 10 TDs is a real possibility.

The perception in Green Bay is that the team will unleash Aaron Jones. I’m not completely sold that’s what happens, but Jones is the best back on a good offense. He should be good, but in recent years the Packers RB hasn’t been as valuable as you’d think. Eddie Lacy seems like the last true star in their backfield, and was he ever that good? Not really.  I like the potential of Jones, and I love the athleticism, but I think he’s more of wishful thinking at this point. He also had a hamstring issue earlier in camp, though has returned to practice. Something to keep in mind.

Our first rookie, Jacobs could have the backfield all to himself in Oakland. Now, Oakland may not be the standard bearing for good decisions, but Marshawn Lynch was great until he got hurt last season. Jacobs should at least get the early down work, and if he’s a factor in the passing game, he easily surpasses this rank. The Raiders line was excellent two years ago, so other than the coaching staff, he should make an impact early. 

Hold out Tier

• Melvin Gordon

Without the holdout, I think I’d have ranked Gordon either 5 or 6. Honestly, without Bell’s holdout last season, I don’t think I’d have dropped him this low. Now, I think this might not be low enough. The situation looks ugly, and considering Bell’s holdout has to be considered a success for some players (I’m not sure it was, but I’m also not an NFL running back), I don’t think Gordon is going to budge. The Chargers experienced this once before – with Vincent Jackson years ago. Jackson sat out 10 games and came back to accrue his year. That’s what I think happens here. You can’t draft a player who’s sitting out for 10 weeks. I mean, you could, but you could also light your entry fee on fire too. Unless something shifts, I would not draft Gordon.

Retread Tiers

• Mark Ingram II
• Chris Carson
• Devonta Freeman
• David Montgomery

I’m not in love with the Ravens’ offense by any means. I’m not even convinced that Lamar Jackson can throw a spiral yet. But isn’t this the perfect set up for Mark Ingram to have a big year? Sean Payton hated Mark Ingram, personally and then talent wise. Now he’s in a backfield with little competition, and even though teams will stack the box, they have to protect against Jackson’s rushing ability. Ingram is an underrated pass catcher with multiple 50 catch seasons. He was overshadowed by Kamara, but pretty much anyone would be. I’ve never been an Ingram guy, but it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t pop this season.

Carson was an afterthought in drafts until rookie Rashaad Penny broke his finger. Then, when healthy, Carson was an extremely solid back. The stats dictate that Penny should see a larger workload, but I’m not super concerned about that for two reasons. One, Pete Carroll is a painfully loyal man and seems to love Carson. Two, which is more important, this team will run the ball so much that it probably can share the wealth and still produce a viable back. I think Carson is the pick for now. 

Freeman does scare me a bit with his injuries the past few seasons, but really, who else can the Falcons turn to? Tevin Coleman is gone and Ito Smith is pretty terrible at football. By default, Freeman should get the majority of the work in a good offense and should stay on the field in passing downs. In theory this sounds great, but the mileage from all the injuries is there. I’ll need a bit of a discount to draft him.

Our second rookie running back, Montgomery himself isn’t a retread, but his role in the Bears’ offense sure is. He should slide right into Jordan Howard’s old role and get a bunch of carries and goal line touches. This sounds pretty useful, but people weren’t exactly thrilled about Howard last season. However, after an impressive performance against 2^nd and 3^rd stringers, Montgomery’s hype is huge. Don’t buy all the way into it. I see a pass to a solid RB 2 season, but somebody is going to be reaching way too high for him. Remember, Montgomery already has little chance at receptions with Cohen on board, and don’t be surprised if Mike Davis, who seems like he’s on 8 rosters a year, steals some carries. Montgomery is fine, but the waters will be a bit muddy the first couple weeks. There’s a chance he’s just the guy on the team, but until the season actually starts, there’s no way to know. The upside is certainly there though.

Plodding Tier

• Derrick Henry
• Leonard Fournette
• Sony Michel
• Lamar Miller

The fantasy community is remembering the end of 2018 far too fondly. Sure, Henry’s last few games were magical, led by a ridiculous week 14 where he went for over 200 yards and 4 TDs. But did we all forget about earlier in that same season, where Henry was unplayable and cut in most leagues? What about the Titans offense makes you think anything has improved? Even with a commitment to Henry, there’s no guaranteed the Titans will be in games to run the ball 25+ times. Oh, and he’s in a walking boot right now, which is said to not be serious, but every preseason injury is “not serious” until it is. This is a hard pass to me, as Henry is every single season.

Speaking of insane disappointments, the career of Leonard Fournette. I can’t understand why so many fantasy pundits jump back on this train every year. Fournette will be injured for multiple weeks. This is a given. From the start, his ceiling is already capped. Then, you have to factor his stone hands so passing downs aren’t going to help his cause. Finally, the team’s offense is mediocre at best – I don’t think Nick Foles moves the needle at all. Fournette is a floor play, but the floor has several cracks and could collapse at any time. The organization isn’t exactly in love with him, but inexplicitly haven’t brought in competition for him. I don’t think I’ll draft him at all.

Michel might actually be a decent pick, but as a Patriots RB, how can you trust him? Sure, the team looked to evolve into a ground and pound offense during the playoffs, but we’ve seen the Patriots change their game plan depending on the matchup. Michel goes far too high to be a matchup play. That doesn’t even factor in projecting the matchup, which is nearly impossible. Again, not for me.

You know who’s not nearly as bad as we both think? Lamar Miller. Please don’t misunderstand me – he’s not good. But he typically plays all 16 games and provides some production. He’ll never win you a week, but odds are he won’t be the reason you lost. But with D’Onta Foreman being surprisingly cut, there’s now serious competition for snaps with Duke Johnson. Johnson will never take Lamar’s early down work, but Miller’s snaps are going to decrease on passing downs. If the Texans were smart, Duke would lead the backfield in playing time and the Texans would be a high tempo team. Thank god Bill O’Brien is the coach. For early downs, it’s still the Lamar Miller show all day every day. I’d recommend DVRing the show so you can watch at 3X speed. Since nobody wants Miller, and who can blame them, you might get him as your 3^rd back. That might be a steal even with Duke on the roster. I need to wash my hands after typing that.

Scat Backs and Timeshares Tier

• Tevin Coleman
• Phillip Lindsay
• Tarik Cohen
• James White
• Kenyan Drake

The 49ers backfield was messy, but then the reports of Jerick McKinnon’s health came out. While it’s a shame for McKinnon, a player I have liked in the past, it makes the 49ers backfield a little easier to read. I’m going to pick Coleman as the lead back since the team went out and signed him despite having just paid McKinnon the year before. Coleman knows the Shanahan system and I don’t think the coach would have offered him a contract without having a plan for him. Maybe it’s to relive the Tevin Coleman role from Atlanta. But honestly, would that be so bad? I don’t think so, though my ranking would be a tad high if that’s the case. Coleman seems like a great RB 3 with upside. You know, like most years.

After his rookie season, you’d expect the buzz around Lindsay would be much higher. However, the team has a new coaching staff, and it seems they want a more even split between Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Lindsay is the favorite as the pass catcher, which bumps him up higher. He also had a complete lock on the job last year, so he has to be the favorite, but it’s not the ideal situation.

I didn’t realize just how good Cohen was last season, but he managed 1,100 on somewhat minimal touches. And that’s the biggest problem with Cohen. He’s great at what he does, but he’ll never be a volume player. And you know what, he never should be a volume player. He would be flattened like a pancake. And not even a good pancake. Like a Burger King 3 for $.89 Pancake. Nobody wants that, especially Burger King. Cohen should be an adequate flex or really low end RB2 like last season, but don’t expect any better than 2018.

I want to like James White more, but it’s the Patriots use of backs that puts him this low. He’s basically a slot WR, which is fine for fantasy, but he needs guaranteed volume to be useful, and that will never be the case. In years past, you could draft White extremely late and always have him as an option. This year, he’s going much earlier than normal, and I don’t want to deal with that risk. White is the type of guy who’ll get cut three weeks into the season, and then become a key add for a team. Be that team… No, not the one cutting him. Pay attention.

I don’t really like anything Drake. Drake the artist has a couple of ok songs, but I feel robbed that Draymond Greene never attacked him for how annoying he is on the sidelines for every game. The Drake collegiate program disappointed the few years that were seeded highly in March Madness. Heck, Drake’s line of cakes and desserts? Not really that good. So it should be no surprise I’m down on Kenyan too. I mean, maybe he gets more touches with Adam Gase gone, but I feel like he is what he is at this point. He can break a few long plays, but are you really looking to be tied to Miami’s offense? They might ask you to play WR for them this year, so you might be more tied to them than you’d want to be. Drake is a swing for the fences pick with low odds of connecting.

Shoulder Shug tier

• Austin Ekeler
• Latavius Murray
• Adrian Peterson

I haven’t been all that impressed with Ekeler. He seems like a darling on twitter and for fantasy analysts, but he’s never done that much when given an opportunity. Well, if Gordon truly does hold out into the regular season, Ekeler has all the opportunity he can handle. He won’t get all the work, but he’ll get the valuable receptions and should at least return RB 2 value. I feel like his draft stock is all over the place, but he seems like a solid mid round pick for now.

I don’t know if Murray is any good at all, but he’s going to get a good amount of touches. Alvin Kamara cannot be a 90% of the work kind of back, and Murray was signed to be the new Mark Ingram. He’s going to be an annoyance to Kamara owners when he scores TDs, and he’ll probably be playable most weeks. Murray is a dirty, unpopular name, but don’t be disgusted. He’s a good choice strictly on opportunity alone.

Ok, this one is a bit weird. Why aren’t more people in on Peterson, at least to start the year? Derrius Guice does not seem remotely healthy yet and Chris Thompson is a day away from being injured. Peterson was very good last year, and the Redskins will need to run. I don’t see AD as a yearlong answer, but to start the year? He seems relatively safe. He won’t be a superstar, but at his cost, you don’t need him to be.

The Mysterious One tier

• Darrell Henderson

Henderson’s value is tough to pin down, but honestly, it’s actually irrelevant based on what you think of Gurley. Think about it. If you think Gurley will be the featured back, you’ll went Henderson to shore up the pick. If you think Gurley is going to miss a lot of time, Henderson is likely the starting RB. No matter what Gurley side you’re on, Henderson is the player we expect to be the primary backup. Considering how good of offense the Rams had, this is a play people want. Just remember, we thought this about John Kelly last season and he doesn’t appear on this year’s list. Maybe Malcolm Brown is the better play. Henderson, like Gurley, will swing leagues is some way, though missing a 6^th round pick isn’t a death sentence.

Some of these guys Start tier

• Jordan Howard
• Peyton Barber
• LeSean McCoy
• Miles Sanders

Sanders and Howard are both on the same team and similar players, so I’ll group them together. I think Sanders is the long play stash while Howard is more useful at the beginning of the season. Early camp reports say Howard dominated the first team reps, but when competing with a rookie, that’s not surprising. I expect Sanders to increase in value as the season goes, but you need the right type of team to take him. The Eagles should score, but both of these guys will cut into the other’s value for the majority of the season. Honestly, I’d say away, but I’d lean Howard if I needed some RB depth to start the year.

Barber was atrocious last year, but he’s still better than Ronald Jones, so he’s likely the starter coming into the year. What a vote of confidence. I believe the Bucs will be a solid offense, so the RB should hold some value. Barber also goes fairly late, so as a value play, he’s worth it. Just don’t look at his stats. Focus on the points – it should still be decent.

Shady is still the starting running back on Buffalo, and the majority of the backups are somehow older than he is. I mean, Frank Gore is on the team. I don’t think anyone wants McCoy; I don’t think Buffalo really does either, but he’s a starter. That has values. There’s a shot he gets cut before the season, but I have my doubts. If you do draft McCoy, remember his best days are behind him.

Time Share Jerks

• Rashaad Penny
• Royce “da 5’9” Freeman
• Dion Lewis
• Matt Breida
• Kalen Ballage
• Duke Johnson
• Nyheim Hines
• Jalen Richard

Last year, I was all in on Penny, then all out, and now I’m all in the middle. I’m like Jimmy Eats World, Malcom, or the weird, needless extra bun in the Big Mac. I do think Penny is the backup, though he’ll get a decent amount of run. His numbers were solid, though he never popped out last season. He may take over at some point, but I think it’ll take a Carson injury for him to do so. He’s a premier handcuff with low, LOW spot start appeal, but for RB, that’s better than nothing. Remember, Seattle would prefer to never pass.

Royce was another rookie who people were hyping up all off season and then never did a thing. Honestly, he never really got opportunities as Phillip Lindsay ran away with the job. See the pun I made there? You probably missed the cleverness. Anyway, I want to believe that he’ll be getting 50% of the work as the coaching staff is saying, but I’m hesitant. I think he’s a decent pick in the later rounds, but let’s not forget how good Lindsay did. Honestly, an increase in Freeman’s work probably weakens the fantasy value of Lindsay more than anything.

A Bloggin Hood 2018 love player, Lewis proved that most love is painful and unsatisfying. Lewis did nothing with countless chances, and then Derrick Henry ran wild at the end of the season.  He should be a nothing. However, Henry is in a walking boot, and somebody has to have some value on this team. Lewis is a year removed from being a valuable fantasy asset. Unfortunately, Tennessee isn’t Boston. There’s less Dunkin Donuts for starters. Lewis is probably worth a flier, but don’t expect much.

Out of the now two potential starters in San Francisco (with apologies to my main man Mozart), Brieda will have the lowest cost, and was the only one to play on the team last year. Are we overthinking this? Shouldn’t Brieda just be the starter? I just don’t see there being any reason to sign Coleman if Brieda was going to have that role. Salary is the only reason I have Brieda as the second option, because he was really productive last season.  Don’t be shocked if he’s the best of the bunch, but in that scenario, I think we end up with an ugly time share. Oh joy.

We don’t know what the split in Miami will be, but we do now Drake isn’t getting all the work. The most likely benefactor is Ballage, who flashed a bit last year but never really got opportunity. Free from the Adam Gase shackles, there’s a chance Ballage will have some value. I would much rather take my shot in the late rounds here than draft Drake in like the fourth.

On the cusp of irrelevancy, Duke Johnson made have gotten new life after being traded to the Texans. The only back of note on the team is Lamar Miller. Duke is significantly more electric than Miller, but I don’t see him taking many carries from him. Where he’ll make his headway is receiving, and there’s a chance he’ll be valuable here. It’s still a dice roll, as Miller is firmly entrenched in his role. If anything, Duke hurts Miller more than helps himself.

I don’t think there’s been a player in Hines’ situation in quite some time. Hines has a defined role – pass catching back on a good offense. That role is not questioned. Yet, I don’t think anyone has a clue what volume he’ll get. The influx of receiving options – namely the 19 TEs and draft pick Paris Campbell, reduces the amount of targets. Plus, if the Colts are good, and they theoretically should be, Hines won’t see the field as much as he’s basically a WR that lines up in the backfield. I thought I’d like Hines more, but I might have to drop him.

Richard is an example of how receptions for running backs might be a tad overrated. Richard caught over 60 passes last season, but did anyone ever enjoy playing him? No, of course they didn’t. Only scoring 1 TD will do that. Richard may have the same role, but it’s probably Josh Jacobs is the do it everything player on the team. Plus, Antonio Brown takes some of these targets away.  60 catches is nothing to sneeze at, but these were empty. You can do better.

Last of the Split Work Backs

• Chris Thompson
• Justin Jackson
• Derrius Guice
• Ito Smith

Before yet another injury, Chris Thompson was cruising into relevance. Now, he’s back to being in the middle of the pack. I think that has to do more with the hype for Guice than any fear of Peterson. I think Thompson could be a sneaky addition, but the injuries have to be adding up on his body. Don’t rely on Thompson, but he could be useful for a while.

Assuming Gordon misses time, Jackson is going to be a cheap, viable option. He’ll probably be an early down option, and will remain behind Ekeler, but let’s not pretend the first string back has a perfect health record. If Gordon misses 10 games, Jackson will be a start able asset during a stretch.  Jackson is one of my favorite late round options.

I want to like Guice way more than this, but all the reports seem to indicate he’s going to struggle getting healthy. I don’t think I’ll draft him, but he could have a second half impact. Keep him on your watch report but unless it’s a super late flier, let someone else draft him. Of course if Guice looks incredible in the preseason, move him way up.

The Falcons love to use two backs, so Smith just needs to have a pulse to be fantasy relevant. In Freeman’s absence last season, he barely qualified as being alive. He was atrocious. I don’t know if the Falcons like him, but there’s only a late round pick competing with him. For now, I think Smith is worth a late flier, but I wish the Falcons had a more exciting #2 option. Honestly, I might just pass on Smith entirely, despite the enticing role, and go for Qadree Ollison at the end of the draft.

Handcuffs Tier

• Malcolm Brown
• Carlos Hyde
• Jaylen Samuels
• Ronald Jones
• CJ Anderson
• Darwin Thompson
• Damien Harris

In theory, Malcolm Brown could be the primary backup to Todd Gurley. In practice, there’s no reason a smart team would move up to take a back. Still, Brown is draft able, just in case.

Hyde is only an unproven, never tested back away from being in the driver seat in Kansas City. He needs to be drafted in all leagues, and possibly much higher than he’s listed here, until you look a few names later.

Jaylen Samuels is very interesting if Connor falters, but he won’t see the field without it. The Steelers don’t split work until we see it. I don’t think they’re start changing their philosophy.

Payton Barber is bad, but Ronald Jones is significantly worse. Maybe, just maybe, the new regime will use him more. I don’t think so though.

The Lions love their useless plodding backs. CJ Anderson is a bit better than that, but I’d expect him to get too much work. Not enough that he’s a playable, but enough for Kerryon drafters to hate him.

Built like an absolute house, Thompson looks like he’d run through the line and leave a man shaped hole behind. I don’t quite know how the Kansas City backfield breaks out now, but I’d keep an eye on Thompson for sure.

I mean, your guess is as good as mine with the Pats backfield. Maybe Harris is a steal. Maybe he’s inactive for 12 games this season. I’ll probably be passing. Certainly not for the next tier. I might just pass on the pick entirely if these are my choices.

“Talented” Backs Tier

• Alfred Blue
• Corey Clement
• Jamaal Williams
• Frank Gore

Once again, Alfred Blue winds up in a situation where he’ll likely play. This time it’s Jacksonville. Don’t draft him. Dear God don’t draft him. But remember him when Fournette misses 3-4 weeks.

I had much higher hopes for Clement last season, but he’s merely a complementary piece. He might be the pass catching back by default, but Darren Sproles also returned, so who knows. I’d just stay away honestly.

I know we’re all in love with Aaron Jones, but there has to be a world where Williams ends up being the main back, no? I guess reading the Mike McCarthy guidebook to coaching messed up my opinion. It’s probably Jones’ job at this point.

Frank Gore will see work in Buffalo. Imagine wanted to play so badly you accept a backup role in Buffalo? I respect Gore’s commitment. Never enough to draft him though.

First Round Handcuff tier

• Chase Edmonds
• Tony Pollard
• Wayne Gallman
• Devin Singletary
• Justice Hill

Edmonds may stay on the field some as the team employs two back sets. He could have some use as a stand-alone player, but I wouldn’t bet on that.

Pollard is the Elliott backup and he needs to be owned just in case. I don’t think Elliott misses time, but I said that about Bell too.

Gallman wouldn’t be able to do half of the things Saquon does, but he was ok in short bursts before Saquon arrived.

Singletary is the interesting one to me. The Bills are filled with old RBs and Singletary, a rookie. If any of the old dudes get cut before the season starts, I think Singletary is one of the better stash backs. He might not hit, but he costs absolutely nothing to find out.

Hill is a backup on the Ravens who may be buried on the depth chart. The signing of Ingram means the team doesn’t love any of their in house options, maybe Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon. How in the world is Dixon still on this team? As a long shot, I’d rather go for the upside Hill could offer.

Leftovers Tier

• Bilal Powell
• Mike Davis
• Giovanni Bernard
• Gus Edwards
• Qadree Ollison
• Jerrick McKinnon
• D’Onta Foreman
• Kareem Hunt

None of these players should be drafted. Powell and Bernard are the pass catching options that are actually worse in that role than the starters. Davis and Edwards are set to be nuisances more than assets for fantasy. Now let’s talk about the interesting players here.

Qadree Ollison is a spell checking nightmare. He’s also the Falcons third stringer and I think Ito Smith is terrible. Keep this name in mind, as if it’ll ever leave your brain now. I wouldn’t even consider drafting him unless there’s some big news coming.

McKinnon is on the Pup list and seems like he’s being left behind. At this point, I think it’s just Coleman and Brieda worth drafting

Foreman was released and is now on the Colts, but Mack is going to remain firmly ahead of him. My guess is the Texans only cut him because he was either not healing well, or actually not working hard like they said. Considering he was hyped just a few weeks before, I doubt it’s the latter. Honestly, with the way the Colts handle injuries, I don’t like his odds.

Finally, Hunt is ranked only as a reminder to not draft him. There’s no point holding onto a guy suspended for half the season. The main difference between him and Melvin Gordon is we don’t know for sure Gordon will be out. Hunt is definitely out and Nick Chubb may be a better back than him. Don’t throw away a draft pick willingly. We’ll be doing plenty of that unknowingly anyway.

*This is nearly 4 Bloggin Hood posts.