QB Positional Preview Or Shots Fired at Game of Thrones

Oh wait, I’m sorry, I meant to say the fans started a petition to have HBO re-film season 8. 1.5 million people signed this. Did they really think this would work? Don’t get me wrong, nobody bitched and moaned about the season more than me. Eventually, I’ll do a full blog on it, but I’m just not ready for that commitment. I haven’t processed it all. But no, I didn’t sign the petition. I’m not a loon.

Hold your opinion on that please.

Most of the complains I saw were that most of the fan theories were better than what the show provided us. Honestly, I agree with this. I think a lot of the ideas and concepts fans had would have been 1000% more interesting. I’m sure George RR Martin’s vision would be closer to the fan’s ideas than the writers, who were on record for changing their scripts so that fans couldn’t guess the plot. That’s wonderful. Set up the stories so fans can follow and theorize, then pull the rug out from under them. Now, I’ll listen to every complaint people have on the writers until the end of time, but there’s one I won’t accept.

‘I could have written it better”

No, no you couldn’t have. 99.9% of the world couldn’t have. In fact, if you don’t have any training in writing, there’s no chance that you would have written even one passable script without a multitude of edits, doctoring, and the complete removal of plot threads. It is NOT easy to write a script, let alone a good one. I’m not justifying the piece of shit we were forced to witness for 6 weeks, but I’m not going to let people say they could do better than professionals when they are flipping burgers for 5 hours a day whining they are overtaxed. If you want to complain, go for it. But I will not allow people to think writing is so easy, a caveman can do it. That’s how we got that god forsaken caveman sitcom. Is this what you people want?

I’m angry that I didn’t make this sitcom up

In a similar vein, every single source of fantasy information will tell you the same about drafting quarterbacks – don’t worry about it. Oh, you’re going to read dozens of articles, maybe hundreds, advising you to wait on QBs. That basically, all the quarterbacks are the same, and anywhere from 35-45 QBs will put up a QB 1 start during the year. Because of this, and the fact that most leagues only require 1 QB, it means everyone is going to tell you to not even worry about QB until the end.

To an extent, this is true. You don’t want to draft a QB too early. At the start of your draft, you want ot grab RBs, WRs, and even a TE if possible. But to completely ignore QB, especially in a home league, is irresponsible. You have to track the league, as most peole love taking QBs early and often. As of now, I’m only comfortable leaving the draft with 1 of 11 QBs. If people are drafting the position early, you need to react, and not just shrug your shoulders. A passive approach to the position isn’t the way to go this year.

Now, are there decent QBs after the first 11? Of course there are. In fact, there’s about 7-10 guys who could end up finishing as a QB 1. So if you wait until the very end, you’re probably not screwed, but you’re at a disadvantage. It makes much more sense to use a mid round pick on one of the top 11 and hope that you hit.

“But Blogging Hood!” you shout, wearing your Lost Season 6 T-shirt, “what if I stream the position instead?” a noble idea, you poor, poor, dumb creature, but not really what you want to do. Streaming is extremely effective – when nobody else in your league does is. However, when you have league mates keeping 2 QBs on their roster for the entire season, and have multiple players in your league streaming, it gets difficult. Note that as recent as 3 years ago, people didn’t have interest in streaming. Now a days, everyone who thinks they know football wants to stream. You can’t stream a position when all the QBs are already being played.

Of course, it all comes down to knowing your league. If people follow the “expert” drafts, where QBs like Mahomes don’t get drafted until round 9, you should take a QB earlier than normal for the advantage at the position. If you play in a home league where QBs fly off the shelves in round 3, note where your cut off line is for a good starter, and make sure you land him, or someone in that tier. If you can stream, go for it, but at least take a high upside QB that could turn into a top level option each and every week.

Despite what I just said about streaming being competitive, don’t be afraid to play matchups. If this means holding on to 2 QBs yourself, I don’t think it’s the worst idea, but it does clog your bench a bit. Still, if it leads to plus matchup each week, it’s worth it. I personally prefer holding on to one QB, and picking up a second only in the worst of matchups if I can.

Finally, and I think most importantly, don’t fall in love with your QB. There’s times you can cut your starter for a new one and it’s the right play to make. Don’t be afraid to cut a guy drafted as a top 10 QB to start playing match ups if it makes your team better. Ultimately, you just want to win. Last year, if you dropped your QB for Josh Allen, you would have upgraded. That’s a weird sentence to type, especially if you’ve ever watched Josh Allen play, but it is true.

Inflation tier

Patrick Mahomes 

Andrew Luck

Aaron Rodgers

There’s not much that needs to be said about Mahomes at this point. He’s the most talented QB in the league and has nearly all of his weapons from last year, even if it’s borderline insane that Tyreek Hill is slated to play all 16 games. It’s nearly impossible for Mahomes to duplicate his success from last year, but most people would have said the same thing about his debut season going so well. If he loses 20% of his production from 2018, he’s still a top tier QB, but his draft price will be too high for me to consider him.

You don’t need me again talk about how overrated I think Andrew Luck is. But that’s real life and this is fantasy baby. All those brutal first quarter INTs Luck throws to put his team in a hole can only help boost his stats. The Team has a plethora of weapons around him, including 3 TEs, a WR who’s basically a TE and probably an offensive lineman who will be eligible at the TE position. There’s only a few elite fantasy options at the skill positions, but the sum of the parts make Luck a top option at the position. Just make sure he’s healthy first. I’m not too concerned about his calf injury yet. Another week of no response will make me avoid all the Colts.

Part of me considered making Rodgers the #1 QB. There’s huge potential for an “F you” season here, especially with the departure of Mike McCarthy. There’s also a few red flags. Firstly, Rodgers is no longer a safe bet to play 16 games, not only getting older, but suffering a few significant injuries the past few years. He’s clashing with the team’s new coach before the start of preseason games and there’s a chance his best days are behind him. There’s also a chance at a vintage MVP level Rodgers’ season. The price will be pretty higher for name value alone, but I could see taking the gamble.

Hype Tier

• Deshaun Watson

• Carson Wentz

• Baker Mayfield

Even without all of his weapons, Watson has been a top tier fantasy QB since he took over the reigns. As long as he has Hopkins, Watson should continue to be, at worse, a mid tier QB1. With Will Fuller and Keke Coutee healthy? There’s a decent shot he could finish as the number 1 option. The problem is the players on this team do not stay healthy, and that includes Watson himself. I like the sky high upside, but the risks will make his cost too high. We haven’t even talked about Bill O’Brien being one of the least imaginative play callers in the league despite having two huge chess pieces. Watson is a great fantasy option in spite of his coach, rather than because of it. Any shot we can get Watson to LA? No? Ok.

Wentz is similar to Luck in that he has a wealth of options around him, though few elite fantasy plays. Wentz is probably the best option on his team for fantasy to start the year, and he could be back to his MVP form. However, he’s also an elevated injury risk like Luck, and he actually haven’t seen Wentz make it through 16 games the past two seasons. In fact, it was Nasty Nick Foles winning the Super Bowl with the Eagles and not Wentz. If he’s available in the mid rounds (8-11) I think Wentz makes for an excellent value who could produce like a top five option.

Baker Mayfield is the physical manifestation of FOMO. Nobody wants to be the drafter who past on Mayfield to take somebody like Lamar Miller. I mean, does anybody like Miller? My apologies to him and his family. Anyway, the issue is the Browns hype train, a phrase a use unironically in 2019, will push Mayfield up the board. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes after Mahomes in some leagues. I get some of the hype – a great rookie year, surrounded by elite weapons. But what do we know about Freddie Kitchens other than he has a really weird last name? And we know OBJ is an elite talent, but he’s also a top tier prima donna. Are the personalities on this team going to mix, or end like the Chappelle’s Show version of the real world. Baker’s draft cost is too rich for me.

Remaining QB 1 tier

• Matt Ryan

• Jameis Winston

• Drew Brees

• Cam Newton

• Russell Wilson

Did you know that Matt Ryan finished as the #2 QB last year? Does that excite you at all? Yeah, me either. I don’t know why I don’t like Ryan more. He should be pretty exciting. The offense should still be very good, and even with a change in Offensive Coordinator, the team is bringing back the coach that helped get them to the Super Bowl. I don’t think they will have a hangover on the transition like most teams, installing a system they used a few years ago. The pieces are in place, and Ryan’s price isn’t crazy, but I don’t know. He seems a little boring to me honestly.

Now, if you play in a league where turnovers count heavily against you, I cannot recommend Jameis. Nobody loves a bad INT more than this man. He was benched several times last year, and has yet to live up to his draft hype. But I believe in Bruce Arians. Winston has a star WR, an emerging WR 2 and a potentially elite TE. The team really can’t run the ball so they’ll have to throw, and Arians loves going deep. The only way Winston fails is if he just isn’t that good. That’s in play, but I like the surroundings too much to pass on this. He’s ranked outside the top 12 most places, so he’ll basically be free, the price I like my QBs at.

Brees is still a good QB, but his attempts have trended downward the past few years. Now 40, the deep ball is no longer one of Brees’ main strengths. Instead, the Saints win with short passes to Michael Thomas and big plays from Alvin Kamara. Brees will throw for his TDs, but the elite attempts and yardage days are over. There’s no longer top upside, and instead, he’s a stabilizing pick that will go too high based on his name. With a great roster around him, Brees can make sense as your QB, but I’d rather go for upside.

Cam may move up before I finish off my overall ranks, but I want to see how he looks throwing a few times first. He should, in theory, be healthy and ready to go, but this is a player who’s fantasy value has always been tied to his legs. He’s not getting younger, and if the injury makes his shaky accuracy take a dip, are we completely sure he’s a lock and loaded starter? Also, outside of Christian McCaffrey, who is a running back last I checked, do we fully trust his weapons? I’m seen hype on a Cam Resurgence year, and it’s certainly on the table if he’s healthy, but let’s not get carried away.

Like Brees, Wilson’s attempts are going in the wrong direction. He’s never been a huge volume passer, but I think the Seahawks are set up to be a primary rushing team, possibly leading the league in attempts. Wilson can recoup the last passes with his legs, but there’s really no top outside threat here. He’s going to have to run a lot to be an elite fantasy QB, and I don’t see that happening again at this point in his career. He’s a safe option. Safe options shouldn’t go before the double digit rounds.

Pure Gamble Tier

• Jared Goff

• Kyler Murray

The Super Bowl scared me off Jared Goff. If the rumors are true, Sean McVay reads opposing defensives and tells Goff how to proceed before the mics cut off. In the Super Bowl, the Patroits would adjust their defense as soon as the mics were cut, leaving Goff seemingly helpless. This would mean Goff couldn’t read defenses, and would be a pretty bad QB. The Rams have 3 elite WRs and Todd Gurley (maybe? Who knows?). They should score a ton of points. If I could trust Goff, he’s been in the end of the 2nd tier. However, the fear is real and I have to make him a fridge starting option.

There is a ton of hype for Kyler Murray already, and while his legs should translate immediately, why do we trust Kliff Kingbury? This is a coach with a losing record in college. That’s the guy we expect to create fantasy gold? I mean, they can’t be worse than they were last year, even if they only used 7 guys on offense. This is a team where I’d much rather have a piece of the offense via the skill players instead of the QB. Let somebody else call their shot on the rookie this year.

Back in my Day tier

• Ben Roethlisberger

• Phillip Rivers

• Tom Brady

Finally, Big Ben managed to finish 3rd overall after years of hype with the killer Bees. He managed to do so despite Le’Veon Bell sitting out the entire year. Don’t expect a repeat performance. While Bell may not have affected Big Ben as much as I’d have expected, losing Antonio Brown will make a difference. Ju Ju might be great, but there’s potentially a gap at the 2nd WR position, and I don’t think Ben will continue to play well on the road. It goes against all the historical data we have. Ben’s fine as a fill in at home, maybe an elite streaming option, but no more.

Rivers is the quintessential safe QB option. You know he’ll manage a good year overall, and he’ll have plenty of multiple TD games. What he won’t have is the wow games. Gone are the years of Rivers lighting up the scoreboard and throwing for 400 yard games.  Again, he’s fine. The weapons are pretty good, and if Melvin Gordon does sit out, he may have an uptick in yardage. However, I can’t settle on him as a starter. There’s much more upside out there.

It’s not like I’d want to have Brady on my team anyway, but he’s really never been a great fantasy QB outside of the elite years with Randy Moss. Brady’s value as a real life QB is significantly better, and even last year, we saw slippage in his regular season performance, Do you really think the loss of Gronk isn’t going to affect the TD numbers? This is a run first team that will put up points, but Brady won’t be anything special in fantasy. He is only this high because he gets to play teams like the Jets multiple times a season.

All Legs Tier

• Mitchell Trubisky

• Dak Prescott

• Josh Allen

I don’t think the Mitch is a very good QB, but he makes enough plays with his legs, and Matt Nagy schemes his offense to maximize his QB. If you somehow miss on the first 13 QBs, and honestly, that’s on you, probably for taking like 4 TEs, I think Trubisky is where I’d roll the dice. There’s enough weapons in Chicago that he could finish as a QB 1 though I wouldn’t bet on it.

If Prescott didn’t run for a half dozen TDs ever year, he’d be useless for fantasy. The Cowboys are the closest to pure ground and pound we’ve seen this side of Rex Ryan. The weapons in Dallas aren’t bad, but I wouldn’t say they’re good either. However, Prescott’s running TDs have become part of his end line. If that changes at all, and Zeke has a 18 TD year (certainly possible), Dak might not finish in the top 20. I’d hope you can do better than this.

Allen is the most boom or bust QB I think I’ve seen. He’s the DeSean Jackson at QB. With a rocket arm and the ability to run for huge gains, Allen could drop 40 on any given week. He’s also extremely inaccurate and unpolished. That 40 could easily turn into a .4. He was a top tier QB for the stretch run last season, so I do see the appeal of drafting him. The team has several downfield burners to match his arm, and he will have elite fantasy weeks this year. But God help you if you watch him play QB. It’s like watching someone tightrope across shark infested waters with cuts all over their body. You don’t want to see how messy things are, but you can’t quite look away.

They Have weapons, right? Tier

• Jimmy Garoppolo

• Kirk Cousins

• Derek Carr

Last year, people couldn’t click on Garoppolo’s name fast enough. This year, he seems like a forgotten man. Did an injury scare everyone off that much? Or did we realize that he has less starting experience than Sam Darnold and might have been a tad overhyped. I mean, going into last season, his WR 1 was Marquise Goodwin. Don’t worry about how much I liked Goodwin last year. It’s in the past. The point is, maybe Garoppolo has his breakout a year later. The good news is, you don’t need to draft him to find out. I’m still skeptical, but he’s someone to keep an eye on at the very least, especially if the Dante Pettis hype hits. Funny thing about that hype on Thursday…

Cousins was another hyped guy last year that didn’t really hit. I think he’s average QB, but the Vikings want to run the ball.  The days of Cousins in the top 5 are long gone. He does still have two elite receivers though, so as a streamer, there’s appeal in the right matchups.

It was only a couple of seasons ago that Carr was an MVP candidate. Since then, it’s been tough sledding. Carr’s weapons have increased, including getting Antonio Brown. The pieces are all there to be good. However, Jon Gruden is a complete wildcard at this point who might accidentally call their play over the jumbotron. Gruden doesn’t seem to be in love with Carr, so this is a big year for Derek, or David, or whichever Carr brother is there. I don’t expect much, but there is a path for fantasy relevance.

Alleged NFL QBs tier

• Sam Darnold

• Lamar Jackson

• Matt Stafford

• Big Dick Nick Foles

Working in the favor of Darnold is the expected growth from year 1 to year 2 and QB Guru Adam Gase’s history of improving QBs. The main problem is that Adam Gase’s status as a Guru is due to getting to coach Peyton Manning in Denver. He’s done nothing else. Unless Ryan Tannehill struggled to dress himself, his status as a successful offensive coach has been greatly exaggerated. Still, Darnold may make a leap, and showed flashes after returning from his injury. Unfortunately, his best receiver is Le’Veon Bell. Wait till next season.

Jackson is fine in a pinch because he’ll likely outrush most of your running backs, but he’s shown nothing with his arm. The team’s weapons are mostly rookies and retreads, so I don’t think there’s much here. If Jackson runs half as much as he did last year, he’s going to be out of the league by 2022. I don’t want any part of him, but again, the rushing totals, while borderline reckless, will help a QB desperate team.

Matt Stafford is terrible and always will remain terrible. Even with a few solid WRs, the Lions are now a running team, and Stafford’s attempts should plummet. Plus, he doesn’t have Megatron to bail out his awful decision making.  I’ll pass, and I do mean that partially ironically since Stafford is so bad at doing so.

Don’t draft Nick Foles. He’s only on here for his nick name.