New York Mets Preview Part 2 – Pitchers or In the new Trainers We Trust

Before we begin with today’s piece I’d liek to quickly go over the Mets’ Vegas win totals and odds.

The Mets’ Over Under line is 81, the perfect .500 season. I think this is the perfect sign that nobody knows what the Mets will be. Personally, I’d take the over here. If the team is an injured as last year, this is a under by August though.

The Mets also have 9/2 odds to win the division (Not Likely), 12/1 to win the National League (Seems low) and 25/1 to win the World Series. Crazier things have happened and there’s a scenario where the Mets get hot and their pitching carries them. There’s also a scenario where Robert Gsellman leads the team in innings.

My prediction for the team is fortunate health, 90 wins, and a wild card birth. From there, they have the two aces they need to go far. I don’t think I’d bet on the playoffs, but If it doesn’t happen this year, a lot of these players will not be back next season.

Starting Pitching

It’s not a secret that the Mets will go as far as their starting pitchers will take them. In 2015, they made the World Series almost strictly on Yoenis Cespedes’ bat and the amazing pitching performance they were getting. Pitching will always shut down even the best offenses when it’s on, but it has its risks.

Unfortunately, pitching is not a safe, healthy practice. Apparently, flinging projectiles at 90+ miles an hour repeatedly is bad for the muscles and joints. The Mets organization built itself on pitching, which got them into one World Series, one additional playoff game and, as of now, a lot of questions. I don’t need to give the laundry list of injuries. You’ve already heard all the jokes. But, for the first time in their history, the Mets actually have their envisioned rotation from way back in 2014.

Of course, the expectations aren’t quite the same. Matt Harvey is a shell of his former self, and the Dark Knight is more like a Dirty Foot Solider. Steven Matz hasn’t seen an elbow surgery he doesn’t like. Zack Wheeler might have been injured getting on the bus to Triple A. it’s not the cleanest bill of health and who’s to say a clean 150 innings from any of these three pitchers means they’d be even above average. I have my doubts. I have my hopes to, and they’re exceedingly high, but the doubts seem to be the more realistic scenario for all three of these guys.

What the Mets do have, and who we’ll talk about first, are two aces that would be the front men in any staff. If they can get into the playoffs healthy, that’s four games against the best pitchers in baseball. Good luck besting that. A lot has to break right for things to happen, but it’s not impossible. Like Parappa the Rapper said “You Gotta Believe!”

Of course Parappa never had a sequel for a reason. Anyway, on to the pitchers.

Noah Syndergaard

The Norse God has risen from the grave to claim his rightful place as a top five pitcher in baseball. Hes been absolutely ridiculous in Spring Training. He managed to record 13 outs in a Spring Training game in three innings. No, that’s not a misprint. They actually adjusted the rules to get Thor’s pitch count to 50 because he was too efficient. You love to hear when pitchers are too efficient.

The injury bug for Thor is thrown around too often. Yes, he throws extremely fast, but he’s never been slowed down by an injury that wasn’t his own fault. Thor’s lat tear last season was due to him having too much muscle on his frame and refusing to have an MRI. That’s 100% on Thor. He’s changed his workout schedule and looks to be completely healthy based on all the 100 MPH pitches he’s thrown.

I don’t worry about Thor overthrowing. His velocity comes naturally and the underrated part of his game are his off speed pitches. Thor’s change up is filthy, and reaches 91 miles per hour. A good portion of the league’s starters have fastballs at that speed. He also has a great slider and curveball. It’s the perfect mix. The stuff is amazing, and he knows how to pitch. Expect a big comeback season here.

Best Case – Thor shows just how dominant he is reaching 15 wins and over 200Ks in 185 innings. He is a finalist for the CY Young award and makes his first All Star Team.

Worst Case – Thor shows a little rust and the Mets shut him down in September for being out the race. I really don’t see a scenario where he pitches bad.

Projection – 29 Starts 175 Innings, 215Ks, 2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP.

Jacob deGrom

The most important story of the off season wasn’t the health of the pitchers, or Michael Conforto’s status. It was the tale of DeGrom’s hair. Typically, DeGrom shaves off the locks at the end of every season, only to grow it back for the next season. This year, he kept it short. It looks weird. Immediately as Spring Training Started, he tweaked his back and the opening week looked in jeopardy. Many people wondered if this was the modern day Samson story. Fortunately, he’s healthy and ready to start the second game of the season. Sady, his setback cost him opening day.

Did I mention he looks weird without the hair.

deGrom’s biggest weaknesses last season were a slight uptick in his walks and a large uptick in home runs allowed. It was the home runs that raises his ERA to 3.53. Now, this isn’t awful, but in undermines how good of a pitcher deGrom is. If he has a HR rate more in line with his career norm of less than 1 per nine innings, that ERA drops to about 3.20. Even in an era with an inflated tennis ball being passed for a baseball, I think deGrom is capable of this.

The walks aren’t that big of deal if his k rate continues to increase. Last year, he put up a silly 10.7 strikouts per 9 innings. Those are reliever numbers. All in all, he struck out 239 batters in 201 innings. His 64 walks don’t seem so daunting anymore.

Mainly, this is the thing people forget about deGrom, who’s been in the shadow of Thor and Harvey for most of his career – his arsenal is really REALLY good. No, it’s not Syndergaard level, but it’s not far off. Most people outside of the Tri State Area think of him as merely a quality arm. This is one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball, and I see him at 7^th, just behind Thor and Bumgarner. He’d be the Ace on 25 teams, including the Yankees (Stop it with the Severino is better talk), and he deserves more hype. He is a annual Cy Young candidate.

Best Case- deGrom lowers his walk and HR rates to his career average, but keeps his strikeout gains from 2017. He finishes as a top three candidate for the Cy Young.

Worse Case – deGrom’s walk rate climbs to 3.0 per nine innings and his HR rate remains the same from 2017. He’s still effective, not but in the same tier as Thor.

Yeah, there’s not much downside for deGrom.

Projection – in 32 games (32 starts) – 205 innings, 230Ks, 3.10 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Matt Harvey

Where to begin?

Harvey is a textbook example of why it’s difficult to build around pitching. Just two years ago, in Spring Training of 2016, Harvey was in the discussion for the best pitcher alive. The correct answer was Kershaw, but the fact he was in the discussion spoke volume. Since, it’s been a nightmare and it doesn’t seem to be ending anytime soon.

I won’t pretend I can discuss Harvey rationally. When he burst on to the scene in 2012, I was in. By 2103, I was leading the “Harvey for Cy Young” charge and was devastated by the UCL tear. When he returned in 2015, he was still great, but not quite the Harvey of old. I kept imagining what 2016 would bring, and predicted a CY Young for him. Yeah, that didn’t happen. Since then, it’s been a rash of injuries, excuses, and disappointments. Harvey fell so far, he was clearly the worst pitching in 2017. Not on the Mets, the league. This is a guy who’s received CY young votes twice and started an All Star game.

I think the fall really began in 2015, game five of the World Series. I don’t like mentioning the World Series, but here goes. Harvey pitched eight shutout innings, than famously talked himself back into the ninth, to the elation of the home crowd. Then he gave up a walk and a double, and was pulled. The Mets went on to blow the game and the series. It’s not fair to pin that moment, a game where Harvey was incredible, to begin his downfall, but part of his mystique was gone. He’s never stayed healthy since. I think that inning has a huge impact on his psyche. Instead of hearing about him pitch, we now hear him whine about women or say he “felt good” and “the results are coming” when he was battered around. It’s not the same Harvey. He now more like a defeated dog than a pitbull.

Harvey’s biggest flaw now a days is his command. He no longer has control over his pitches. Even if it doesn’t always show up on his walk rate, he might lose control by throwing pitches directly over the plate. At his height, he had pinpoint control. What’s also crazy, is that he still touches 95 but no longer has his elite stuff. This is a pitcher who once had stuff better than 99% of all the pitchers in the history of the game. Because of this, he could blow pitches by people. He didn’t really know how to pitch; he let his stuff carry him. Now, he still has great velocity, but needs to learn to adjust. Can he?

I think it depends on your expectations. If you expect the Dark Knight? Of course not. That guy is long gone. If you want a league average pitcher with the potential for so much more, yeah I think you can get that in Harvey this year. He just needs to be this team’s #3. I need to see more of his old mentality before I buy in, but I’m ready to. Trust me.

Best Case – Harvey recaptured the magic of 2013, and while not reaching his ceiling, does a 90% imitation of it, propelling the Mets to having three Aces once again.

Worst Case – Harvey regresses beyond his 2016 disaster. Forget being an Ace – Harvey fails to land a contract for 2019, going from the $200,000,000 man, to flipping 2,000 burgers at a White Castle in Fairfield CT.

Projections – In 25 starts – 150 Innings, 140 Strikeouts, 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP.

Steven Matz

Speaking of injuries, Matz has had every last one of them. Up until 2017, nobody questioned Mat’s ability. They just questioned him ability to stay on the mound. Last season only raised more questions to both his durability and now his talent. Matz was nearly as bad as Harvey, but wasn’t on the mound enough for it to show. He gave up 46 runs in only 66 and 2/3rd innings pitched. Yikes.

One of Matz’s biggest changes was to move away from the slider, a pitch that he blamed for giving him elbow issues. The problem was the slider made Matz effective. Without it, he seemed to be throwing batting practice. He saw a significant decrease in strikeouts, and his WHIP soared to 1.50. Perhaps he wasn’t fully healthy, but I feel like it’s a little from Column A and little from Column B scenario. I do think there’s hope.

Despite Matz’s Spring training stats looking like his 2017, he appears to have worked out some kinks. Matz’s last three outings were much better and part of his Spring Training issues were due to mechanical flaws attributed to rust. Personally, if it was just mechanics, I don’t see how he had two consecutive putrid outings, but so be it. I’ll buy into that. He did strike out 21 batters in 20 innings, so the K’s are falling in line with his career norms. Perhaps he can survive without his slider, but I need to see some good, healthy innings first before I buy in. For now, I can’t possibly project more than 20 starts, and that’s generous.

Best Case – The Mets manage Matz’s innings perfectly, and he remains effective for 175 innings. He provides the Mets with the dominant lefty the rotation needs.

Worst case – Matz feels pain in his elbow after his first start. The team doctors reveal he never even had an elbow at all. After intensive surgery, Matz returns in 2022 as the team’s lefty relief specialist.

Projection – In 20 Starts – 110 Innings, 105 Ks, 3.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

Zach Wheeler

I remember when the Mets acquired Zach Wheeler for Carlos Beltran. He was going to be the future ace of the staff. Now, he can’t even make it to the big leagues to start the year. What a turn of events.

Wheeler, like all Mets pitchers, cannot ever stay healthy. He’s had every ailment under the sun, most recently taking two years to recover from Tommy John surgery. That’s not a good sign as most pitchers today bounce back after only a single year away.

Wheeler’s biggest issue is his walks. He’s averaged over four walks per nin innings. This is troubling even for a strikeout pitcher. It doesn’t matter that he strikes out a batter an inning when he puts somebody on for free every other inning.

Even his stuff isn’t as good as it was pre injury. He allowed more than a hit an inning on top of the walks. And his whip was over 1.50, which certainly isn’t good. The strikeouts were pretty close to the norm but it’s a shame. Before the Tommy John, Matz looked close to becoming a front end starter. Now, he’ll need an injury or two to get back in the rotation. Wheeler’s 22 hits in 10 Spring Training innings pretty much confirmed it.

I don’t see Wheeler as a good bullpen arm. He’s too wild and the k’s aren’t quite there for it. However, relievers usually lower their pitch repertoire and raise their velocity, so maybe Wheeler can reinvent himself. For his sake, I hope he can.

Best Case – Wheeler is recalled in May and serves as a Swing man, making occasional starts. He develops into the Mets’ chess piece, shutting down batters for multiple innings at the time.

Worst Case – Wheeler is forced into 20 starts and struggles worse than in 2017. His command completely leaves and he struggles to find himself on a 40 man roster in 2019.

Projection – In 100 innings (12 starts), 95k, 4.50 ERA, 1.35 Whip. – I expect improvement in the rations from the pen.

 

Seth Lugo

Don’t look too deep into Lugo’s raw numbers from 2017. His season started early in the World Baseball Classic mowing hitters down for Puerto Rico. Then, he struggled through injuries. I mean, he is a Mets pitcher.

When I think of Lugo, I think of his 2016 debut, where he helped get the Mets into the playoffs with great start after great start. His 2.67 he had was a mirage, but I think the 4.71 from 2017 as wrong as well. He feels like a high 3 ERA guy, which is a fine back end rotation pitcher.

He’s also not an elite strikeout guy, but that’s ok. He’s a ground ball specialist who can induce weak contact. You don’t need elite k’s to be a 4th or 5th starter, and that’s all Lugo needs to be.

He gave up far too many hits last year. He needs to get that down to be effective. If he pitches well to start the year, why couldn’t he be the #5 guy? I guess it just depends on what numbers you believe.

Best case – Lugo takes his turn for the first two weeks and keeps it until the end of the year. He provides a sub four era and good WHIP.

Worst case- Lugo bombs in his showcase and loses his spot when Jason Vargas returns. Lugo’s fast ball curve combo becomes a bull pen option

Projection – 20 starts – 130 innings, 3.90 ERA, 105 ks, 1.25 WHIP – the upside of Matz and Harvey isn’t there which is why he doesn’t get 30 starts.

 

Jason Vargas

He’s just a guy who got incredibly hot early in 2017 to make an All Star team. Vargas has more velocity than you’d expect for his career stats, but he’s not a strikeout pitcher and he’s, at best, a back end option.

He has a career 6.0 strikeout per nine innings. That’s paired with a 4.17 ERA and a slightly worse FIP. Even his decent control is ruined by giving up more than a hit per inning. You can’t even say he’s an innings eater because he was hurt in 2015 and 2016. Hell, he’s out for the first two weeks now with a broken non throwing hand. Did he feel the need to fit in? For Christ sake. What does he do well?

Basically, he’s a lefty. Never underestimate how long a pitcher can last if he’s a lefty. He doesn’t even have to be good, as seen here. He just has to show up to the park a majority of the time. Even health isn’t important.

Parents, don’t be irresponsible. Raise your children as lefties if you don’t want to cap their earnings potential.

Best case – Vargas makes every fifth start beginning in mid April. He puts up a respectable 4.00 ERA, and makes his best Bartolo Colon impression, minus the lovable ness. Make sure to watch the sweets, Jason.

Worst Case – Even though nobody believed it anyway, Vargas proves 2017 was a fluke. He get shelled to the point 2017 Matt Harvey is Disgusted.

Projection – 28 starts – 175 innings, 140ks, 4.30ERA, 1.33 WHIP.

 

Robert Gsellman

This is a three per story.

In the first act, Gsellman saved the Mets 2016 season with Seth Lugo. He threw amazing down the stretch, possessing a 2.67 ERA with nearly a strikeout an inning. The advanced stats confirmed his run. This could be a good pitcher. His hair flowed just like deGrom, thus he became Fake deGrom.

Then, came 2017. Gsellman won a job out of camp and proceeded to shit on everyone’s hopes and dreams. The strikeouts disappeared and the whip rose over to 1.50. He couldn’t record any outs, and as the team suffered injury after injury, the Mets still held him out of a rotation spot. His ERA was 5.19. Then, he became fraud deGrom.

This year, Gsellman was quickly shuttled to AAA with little fanfare. Now, he returns to Robert Gsellman.

He does have the hair still going for him though. Somebody needed to carry the mantle

Best Case – Gsellman makes spot starts over the course of the year and looks like the 2016 season. Especially in limited action. Very limited.

Worse case – Due to a rash of injuries, the only fly hair out there on the mound is Gsellman and his 5.75 ERA.

Projection – 80 innings (10 starts) 65k, 4.60 Era, 1.40WHIP – maybe he’ll be better in the pen.

 

Relief Pitchers

To succeed as a reliever, you need to throw gas. Fireballers run the relieve game this day and it’s not changing any time soon. If you can throw fast and have an off speed pitch, you’re in business. Never before have relieves been used so heavily.

You’ll also see a bunch of specialist these days. Lefty specialists are all the rage, and teams carry two or even three of them. These specialist will never face a righty and make millions a year. It’s absurd. They might have 100 appearances and still pitch 30 innings. In fact, most of them aren’t even that good. Some can’t even get a lefty out. Apparently, the only requirement is to they are left handed. I implore you parents, do the right things for your kids and make these southpaws.

The odd thing about relievers is they don’t stay dominant for long. Last year’s relief stud could easily become this year’s suck ass suck. Perhaps it’s the predictable nature of pitchers throwing the same two offerings every time out that leagues catch up quick. Or perhaps it’s fatigue. Most likely, it’s the lack of drugs.

Take Jenrry Mejia. For years, he was a brittle starter who couldn’t do a thing but break a limb. Then, after the Mets pitching began to improve Mejia found himself as a closer of the team, and was pretty dominant, if not walk happy. Then, he was suspended to PEDs. After missing 80 games, he got banned again for an entire year. Then somehow banned for life by getting caught a third time. You can’t make that stuff up.

I totally forgot about this which is why I didn’t list it in the first column. I think I blocked it out.

Mejia isn’t the norm for relievers. Sometimes they just fall off due to wear and tear. A candidate for this is Jeurys Familia. A lock down closer in 2015, he was never quite the same after the 2015 World Series, were he was assaulted in every appearance. Last year, he fell completely apart and struggled just getting healthy. He’s in danger of becoming a 7^th inning pitcher, which is never good.

The Mets bullpen this year could become a strong unit. It could also become a crap fest. Who knows honesty? If you can predict a good bullpen, you might as well play the lottery. The payoff is better.

And yes yes Yankee Fans, your bullpen looks great. Looking good on paper has never backfired. Congrats on your 18 championships in a row. I’m not even trying to jinx you through sarcasm.

Jerry Blevins

I’d argue that Blevins is actually the most important Mets reliever. As dumb as I believe the same handed specialist is, Blevins is the only established lefty in the pen. This means he’ll be working a lot of one or two batter appearances in key situations.

For his career, Blevins only allows a .211/.264/.304 triple slash. That’s slightly better than the average pitcher. It’s tough to hit someone who’s that dirty. But Blevins isn’t terrible against righties either, though it’s more toward the league average. This makes Blevins better than the average lefty specialist. He can actually face a righty sandwiched between lefties.

He’s not an elite strikeout pitcher, but he’s still averaged a strikeout per inning. He’s just a good, solid pitcher. Hopefully he can keep his dominance going

Best Case – Blevins remains one of the elite lefty specialists in baseball, shutting down the best lefty hitters of the game.

Worst Case – As 34, Blevins just stops being effective and becomes BP for everyone. That’s frightening to think of.

Projection – 80 Games – 52 Innings, 55 Ks, 3.50 ERA, 1.20WHIP

 

Jeurys Familia

Familia was amazing from 2014-2016, posting ERAs between 1.85 to 2.55 and seems to be unhittable. However, there were chinks in the armor. Familia was putting on a frightening amount of guys, and always seemed shaky. This is the pattern of Mets closers – they look amazing, and then slowly put people on and get crushed. It’s happened to every Mets closer of relevance. It’s a right of passage.

Familia’s biggest issue is his increase in walks. In his breakout year, he only walked 2.2 batters per nine innings. That rose to an astonishing 5.5 in 2017. That’s not a good thing. He really needs to get his command back in order to go back to being a dominant closer. Don’t forget, he recorded 74 saves in two years. Saves don’t mean much, but they aren’t awful to have.

The hope is that Familiar’s September is a sign of what’s to come. He righted the ship and looked like the Familia of old. Hopefully that will continue in 2018.

Best Case – Familia matches the form of 2016, as I doubt the dominant 2015 is back. He records 40 saves and is a lot at the top of the reliever tiers.

Worst Case – Familia continues to walk people at a rate of five per nine innings.  He loses his job to AJ Ramos

Projection – 75 appearance, 75 Innings, 80Ks, 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

 

AJ Ramos

Somewhat like Familiar, Ramos was a former dominant closer who began to show hiccups until it spiraled out of control in 2017. While he averaged a 2.62 ERA from 2013-2016, he always walked far too many guys. His WHIP continued to creep up, until it was a gross 1.41 in 2017. That’s not good enough for mop up duty, let alone a key role. The Mets hope he can be the set up this year, and that could be a tall task.

However, Ramos has always been a good strikeout pitcher, averaging about 10.5 K’s per nine innings for his career. If he marginalizes the walks, he has the skills to be an elite bullpen arm. However, this will be a tall task as he 4.8 walks per nine innings are out of control (hehe, get it?). He seems to always be in trouble and that’s not something you can deal with. The low ERAs were somewhat of a fluke. He seems to love dancing with disaster.

Best Case – Ramos cuts his walks to around Three per Nine innings while keeping his strikeout rate. He find his groove and grabs the closers’ role.

Worst Case – Ramos makes a new career high, though this time it’s walks, and becomes a fringe member of the team. He’s only seen in blowouts in either direction.

Projection – 70 Games – 65 Innings, 80Ks, 3.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

 

Anthony Swarzak

I don’t really know what to expect from Swarzak, who’s had a very up and down career, until staring in 2017 at age 31. It’s a bit late for a breakout, so it’s hard not to see it having fluke written all over it. Swarzak has been a control pitcher for most of his career – giving up minimal walks, but only averaging a 6.4 K per nine for his career. For most of his career, his WHIP was extremely high.

Then, somehow, things turned around. Swarzak managed to strike out 10.6 batters per nine innings. Where the hell did that come from? The walks remained in line with his career rates, and suddenly his WHIP was only 1.03. this from somebody with a career 1.32. That’s just bizarre.

No, I don’t expect the career year to duplicate. This seems like a questionable signing honestly, but hopefully the Mets found something that changed Swarzak’s trajectory. Personally, I wouldn’t pay for a career year, but I’ll also be the one clamoring for Swarzak to pitch more if he continues his 2017 dominance.

Best Case: I mean, it’s 2017. If he matches that line, the Mets could have an impressive bullpen.

Worst: Swarzak’s K’s fall off a cliff and he’s back to being a mop up guy. The Mets bullpen becomes shaky.

Projection – 70 Games, 63 Innings, 55 Ks, 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Hansel  Robles

This is one of my least favorite pitchers on the planet. He has absolutely no etiquette on the mound, and not in a good way. He throws quick pitches inside just to try and mess with a batter, but leaves everything over the plate. He has no qualms about walking batters without tempting them on a pitch and he’s blown more games than I can remember. He was one of Terry Collins’ favorite managers for reasons I couldn’t understand. Every time Robles’ name was called, I wanted Collins on the hot seat.

It was a giant relief that he was demoted to AAA to start the season. I know he’ll be back up sooner than later, but if guys like Gsellman and Wheeler are in the bullpen instead, the Mets are much better shape. Unlike cowbell, I can’t get too little of Robles. His numbers don’t look that bad, but don’t buy into any of his hype. He is awful.

Best Case – Robles pitches mediocre in AAA all year so he doesn’t get the call at any point. I’m serious. This is the best thing for the Mets.

Worst Case – Robles is thrust into high leverage innings and predictably implodes every time. He continues to get the opportunity because the other

Projection – 40 Games, 45 Innings, 50Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 92 blown leads.