New York Mets 2019 Preview – Third Base

In a season plagued by injuries and disappointment, or you know, every season, there were a few bright spots. Few were brighter than the play of Jeff McNeil. McNeil was not in the Mets plans for 2018, but after everyone broke their bones, they had no choice. He couldn’t have played better. Seriously, this might have been the peak.

What gives me hope for McNeil is his minor league track record. He is a career .311 minor league hitter, so the potential to continue that in the majors is there. While he’s not the most powerful bat, he’s a solid contact hitter who rarely strikes out. Huh. That archetype sounds familiar. The Mets have had several players of his ilk in recent years, with none working out great.  Well, for the Mets at least. Let’s have a look at the 2 most recent players who fit this mold.

Justin Turner – I can’t really blame the Mets here. Turner was a utility player who never flashed much in Flushing. He was a fan favorite though, even using Call Me Maybe as his up to bat music. That’s how you steal the fan’s hearts.

When he became a free agent, the Mets didn’t even consider signing him. Turner went to the Dodgers, and basically become the ginger Mickey Mantle. In the 2015 division series, I think he hit .800 with all doubles. He was the batter I feared the most that entire post season. Now, he’s one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball, and it seemed to come out of nowhere. Mets fan cite this as an example of management being dumb. Still, I can’t blame them. Turner blew up after leaving the team, and never showed star potential as a Met.

Besides, there’s plenty of examples of bad decisions beyond this. It’s not like we need to look for them.

Daniel Murphy – Always an enigma, Murphy was a solid hitter from day 1. He was a gap hitter who rarely struck out – unusual qualities in the modern game. His problem was he couldn’t play a lick of defense. The Mets tried to hide him all over the field. Famously, Johan Santana belittled him after multiple misplays in an early April game from left field. Murphy regularly made errors on routine plays, but would then surprise with a spectacular one later. It was odd.

In the second half of 2015, something change. Murphy began to elevate more pitches, and went on an absolute tear. His playoff performance was the stuff of legends… until the World Series. Then, he went back to the old Murphy. Nobody could stay that hot with the bat, but Murphy had a few crucial errors. It was enough for the Mets not to make him a real offer after the season.

Murphy went on to sign with the Nationals and continue his power surge. He, like Turner, is now one of the most feared hitters in baseball. An injury took away most of his 2018, but this year he signed with Colorado. Seriously, draft him in fantasy. Just do it. His skill set should make him one of the best values on the board.

Am I saying that McNeil is Turner or Murphy waiting in the wings? I’d love too, but the sample size is far too small. More concerning for McNeil is a signing the Mets made in the off-season, bringing in Jed Lowrie. If Lowrie wasn’t hurt, there would be no spot for McNeil. The team experimented with him In Left, but he’s been Murphy esque so far. McNeil is an infielder and needs to play there. Lowrie’s mysterious knee injury will let Jeff start at 3rd, but when Lowrie’s ready, I’m not sure what happens.

This reminds me a bit of the tale of TJ Rivera. In another injury plagued season, Rivera played 2B as a desperation sub. And he crushed the ball. Any game I watched, Rivera was hitting doubles every other time up. I know that can’t be true, but it sure seemed like it. Honestly, I thought the team had found a piece for the future. But Rivera didn’t play for the major league club in 2017 or 2018. I didn’t understand. I mean, Jose Reyes was getting regular at bats. Something was amiss.

It turns out the TJ in his name stood for Tommy John (No not really). Rivera had the surgery in 2017 and struggled to recovery. On 3/10, the Mets released Rivera. There was outcry from the fan base AND the players. Rivera was well liked. There didn’t seem to be a reason to cut him unless he wasn’t going to make it back.

Met fans immediately cited Justin Turner. That’s a bit aggressive. Justin Turners don’t grow on trees.

Wait, does ginger grow on trees? I’ll have to ask Alexa that.

We’ll see if Rivera’s career is at an unfortunate end, or if his superstar chapter is coming. My fear for McNeil is the Rivera route. I don’t want him becoming a what if. His 2018 earned him the opportunity to start and I hope the Mets get him in the lineup as much as possible. I don’t know if we have a Murphy or Turner on our hands, but unlike TJ Rivera, Id like the Mets to find out.

Jeff McNeil (LHB)

2018/Career – .329/.381/.471

Minors – .311/.380/.443

Now, keep in mind that McNeil only has 225 at bats in the majors. I’m very excited about him, but the sample size is small. Let’s not anoint him Daniel Murphy who can field before he’s gotten a full season under his belt.

On the plus, his minor league numbers came over 1899 at bats, so those stats are legit. We see low power potential, which isn’t ideal, but if McNeil gets on base 38% of the time, who cares? Not everybody has to be Khris Davis.

Remember, nobody should be Chris Davis.

Even fewer people should be Clay Davis. Shiiiiiiit.

Truthfully, McNeil’s fielding seems kind of meh. He’s really a 2B by trade but Cano ruins that dream. He’ll have to play 3B or LF to get in the lineup. His defense is a work in progress, but hopefully he can make strides there. The Mets need as many plus bats as they can get.

There’s three things working against McNeil. The biggest is injuries. The Mets brass weren’t high on McNeil coming into 2018 because of a sketchy injury past. Now, I think baseball injuries tend to be fluky, but the injury prone label has merit for some guys. We already talked about Travis d’Arnaud. Some guys are magnets for getting hurt. I have no idea why. Hopefully McNeil can coast through the year with no issues.

The next two things are typically positives but for this specific roster are not. McNeil is a prototype lefty hitting #2 hitter. That’s fantastic.

The Mets have 7 left-handed #2 hitters on the roster. In the most ironic twist I can think of, McNeil might lose some at bats for having baseball’s most desired qualities.

I’ve been on record many times saying that all my children will be lefties. I’m currently trying to convince my godson to stop using his right hand. My children will be in serious time out for using their right arm for anything other than catching. But Jeff, if you can learn how to bat righty in the next 10 days, that would be super. Oh, and keep the .300 average.

I’m sure you’ll be fine.

Prediction: McNeil will be roughly the same player he was in the minors and last year. He’ll flirt with .300, get on base and continue to be popular with the fans. The defense will be shaky but passable. McNeil will play some 2B spelling Cano, and LF, but 3B will be his primary. I think he’ll narrowly edged out Lowrie now in at bats, but McNeil only gets about 500. It’s enough to carve out a starting spot for 2020.

JD Davis (RHB)

Career – .194/.260/.321 in 165 At Bats

Minors – .292/.362/.521 in 1981 At Bats.

Now, we talked about the opportunities former top prospects get last time. JD Davis is a former top 15 prospect who the Mets acquired for nothing. This is the type of move I love seeing from the team. If Davos doesn’t work out, it’s fine. It won’t affect the team in any way. But if he hits, goodness this is a great pickup.

Davis can play both the infield and outfield, giving the team even more versatility and flexibility. The biggest flaw with Davis is the complete lack of production in the majors, but the sample size is even smaller than McNeil’s. He never really got a chance with the Astros, lost in a sea of top prospects all around him. For all we know, Davis was like the 11th man on the dream team – Uber talented but not better than his peers.

He could also be Christian Lattener but I certainly hope not.

Davis probably won’t crack the major league lineup but will be a call up as an injury replacement or if he continues to crush minor league pitchers. It’s far too early to say if Davis is a Quad A player, or still a legit prospect. The Mets do not have to rush to find out.

Prediction: Davis should not play much this year but he’s good insurance to have. I expect him to crush minor league pitching and have a few trial periods as an injury filler. We won’t have a full gauge on him in 2019, but maybe he’ll carve a big league role for 2020. Again, it sounds backwards but being a right handed hitter helps Davis.

Come on McNeil, hit the cage as a righty. You know you want to.