New York Mets 2019 Preview – Starting Pitcher

When I think of the Mets starting rotation this year, I think of Pamela Anderson. Trust me, the connection is there.

Anderson wasn’t a very good actress, or model, or singer, or whatever she was supposed to be. I honestly have no idea. Whatever her field was, she certainly isn’t remember for it. No, Pamela Anderson was known for two things – her left breast and her right breast. It was this pair of assets that helped her break into fame and fortune. Way to break the glass ceiling Pam. The Mets rotation is a lot like Pamela Anderson’s frame – extremely top-heavy.

Thank you. I’ll be here all week.

There’s only a few rotations in baseball with a comparable 1-2-3 punch than the Mets. The Nationals have Scherzer, Strassburg, and Corbin, but the latter two are walking DL stints waiting to happen. Don’t even think of turning that phrase around on the Mets. I’ll get there in my analysis, thank you.

The Indians probably have the best claim of any team, with Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer. It’s the most talented group, but even they have their problems. Kluber, while still great, is on the decline. Carrasco finds new, inventive ways to miss months at a time. Bauer is the MLB player most likely to be arrested for being an asshole.

No team’s rotation is safe from disaster. The Mets top three arms are as volatile as anyone. Jacob deGrom has threatened to cut his work load if he doesn’t receive an extension. Noah Syndergaard has missed significant time over the past two seasons and is an elevated injury risk. Zack Wheeler never pitched as well as he did in 2018, and has spent more time hurt then healthy in his career.

Despite this, there’s no doubt if the three pitchers are on, there’s no trio I’d rather have. Each has shown ace potential in their career. Two were top-tier prospects and deGrom has proven to be one of the most consistent aces in baseball. The Mets season depends on these three pitchers. If each matches their production last year, an improved Mets offense could lead to a playoff run. In a series, few teams boast the upside of these three arms.

I don’t need to waste my time hyping these three guys up. Maybe Wheeler needs a little bit of a hype man, but if you’re a New York fan, you know what he’s capable of. My concern is the Mets are so top-heavy, they might tip over at any minute. Just like Pam Anderson in the 90s.

I considered pictures for more views but you people have the internet. Google whatever you want. Just don’t attach me to it.

The back-end of the rotation is frightening. The organization continues to include Steven Matz as part of the plan. Truly, he hasn’t proven a thing. The organization spends more time making excuses for his poor performance. He also can’t avoid the DL. Expecting 150 innings from him is a fallacy.

Jason Vargas was the worst pitcher in baseball last season. The team happily has him as their #5 starter. Yeah, that’s a concern.

And that’s really it. There’s no one in the minors who’s capable of being a key rotational cog. There’s no veteran innings eaten the Mets have stashed in case of emergency. There is Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman in the bullpen, but both are significantly better in their current role. I would prefer Lugo get a shot to start, but apparently I’m the only person alive who does.

The Mets have relied on pitching to carry them since 2015. This has worked exactly one time. The last three years have been marred by injuries, especially to the starters. Why exactly have we not bolstered the depth? Management is playing a dangerous game. The second one of the starters get hurt, the team is at a significant disadvantage. If it’s one of the big three, the season is practically over.

There is an obvious solution for all of this. Due to baseball free agency making zero sense, both Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez have been available for quite some time. This is a head scratcher. Both pitchers are capable additions for any team. Why does nobody want these guys? Is there something we don’t know? Or are the economics of Basel completely out of whack?

Keuchel won a CY Young three years ago. No, he’s not a candidate to win another but he’s a lefty. While not a strikeout artist, he forces a lot of weak contact and forces plenty of ground balls. He’d be the Mets #4 starter, and give them a significant upgrade at their southpaw options. Realistically, the Mets could get a huge discount on him. Plus, he’d be switching leagues, which should give some advantage.

Gio isn’t as good of pitcher but he knows Citi Field well. He owns a 1.76 ERA in his career there, and he has numerous starts. He would be cheaper than Kuechel, and nobody has made a solid offer. I hope BVW reads this and realizes he’s made a grave error. Get us some depth. I would actually sign Gio first, based on the history alone.

Unfortunately, the Yankees must have read a draft I wrote for this article, and signed Gio. It was a 1 year, 3 million dollar contract. Are you serious? We couldn’t find 3 million for a pitcher with a sub 2 ERA in our ballpark. If the Mets fall short of the playoffs by several games, this is the event I will quote. What an infuriating signing.

The move now is simple – sign Keuchel before the end of business today. We need the depth. Sure, he’ll cost more than Gio, but how can we yet theblast good starter arm go. Are we trusting Vargas’ spring?

We’re going to trust Vargas’ spring, aren’t we?

Neither pitcher will be ready until May, and that assumes Keuchal gets signed immediately. But you know what? I’m ok with a bit of a delay. I’d rather have a stronger rotation for September than a weird, depthless staff in April.Even the Yankees figure this one out, and they tried to make Michael Pineda a thing for multiple seasons.

I guess the Mets don’t see depth as important. They will rely on a staff that has proven to be injury prone to make all 162 starts. At least we handle injury diagnosis well.

Come on BVW, this isn’t that hard. Do something before the Yankees decide to sign Keuchal because they think it’s funny.

Oh and if you could, I don’t know, sign deGrom to a contact before true season starts that would be great. Only if it’s not too much trouble. He’s only our franchise cornerstone.

Jacob deGrom (RHP)

Career – 2.67 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9

2018 – 1.70ERA, .91WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 1.9BB/9

There wasn’t anything else for deGrom to prove. Then he went out and had the best season I’ve seen a pitcher have. Look at those numbers. They remind me of Pedro in the late 90s and early 2000s. That’s not bad company to associate with.

There’s nothing deGrom can’t do on the mound. He’s got elite velocity, great secondary pitches, pinpoint command and goes deep into games. He’s the full package. Nobody can argue he’s a top 3 pitcher and now, he finally has a CY Young to back up the claim.

There’s a few red flags, though none have to do with his ability. The Mets did not give deGrom any run support. Somehow, he only had 10 wins despite the sub 2 era. That’s hard to repeat. You’d think just by sheer luck he’d win more even if he returns back to a mortal pitcher this year.

Secondly, there’s a natural regression due. This doesn’t mean deGrom won’t be awesome. Even if he returns to his career averages, elite totals across the board, he’ll give up almost a full run more a game. That’s ok if he does. He’s a certified ace and I can’t imagine a scenario where he is bad.

Do I think the contract affects things? It could. I could see his innings being reduced. However, the bullpen will hopefully be better. If deGrom is fresh down the stretch, that’s a plus for all parties. Of course the team could open up the checkbook and finally pay the man, but God forbid the Wilpons do that.

Prediction: Anticipate another elite deGrom season. It’ll be tough to top 2018, but I could see a season 90% as good. That’s still a top-tier pitcher and CY Young contender.  Hopefully he’s extended too.

Noah Syndergaard (RHP)

Career – 2.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9.

2018 – 3.03 ERA 1.21 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9.

It’s never been the ability. It’s always been the health. Syndergaard was again slowed by injuries. While the end result was still good, it wasn’t quite up to expectations. The assumption is Syndergaard will become a yearly CY Young candidate. That hasn’t been the case. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been awesome, but I think everyone expects Thor to be the best pitcher in baseball.

Thor’s best skill in his velocity. Few pitchers can match his fastball speed. This is coupled with an excellent walk rate. Thor is rarely wild and racks up strikeouts with good secondary offering. Of note is his curveball, dubbed Thor’s hammer. Yes, we’re still talking about baseball here.

There was a slight dip in his velocity last year, but he averaged over 97 MPH per fireball. I’m not that worried about it and I suspect it was due to his injuries. It lowered his strikeouts by a bit, but again, there was likely a blip. What we need from Syndergaard is a full season. He’ll figure out the rest.

Part of me wishes he’d put the persona away for a year and just go out and pitch. I think he needs to be Thor for some reason. Still, it hasn’t affected he’s on field performance so whatever. Plus, he’s a great twitter follow.

Prediction: We’ll see Thor’s best season this year. After the trade rumors, he’ll pitch with a chip on his shoulder, much better than one in his elbow. He won’t top deGrom, but he’ll be close, and the two will compete for team #1 supremacy. It’ll be a friendly rivalry. I mean, they aren’t Harvey after all.

Zack Wheeler (RHP)

Career – 3.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9.

2018 – 3.31 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

After 4 seasons, Wheeler finally broke out in a big way. When he was acquired from the Giants half a decade ago, he was a front end prospect. He was projected to be better than Matt Harvey. Then, injuries derailed his development. While other arms have surpassed his importance in the organization, the breakout couldn’t have happened at a better time. Wheeler is a top 30 pitcher in the league and gives the Mets a lights out 3rd starter.

The biggest issue Wheeler has had, other than injuries, is his command. He’s always enjoyed the walk. Last year, he got his walks her 9 innings under 3, a career best, and everything else fell in line. I would argue there’s room for growth. Wheeler’s natural stuff is good enough to accumulate more strikeouts. He’ll need that to improve, as the defense behind him is a bit suspect.

If Wheeler can finish the year with a 3:1 Strikeout to Walk ratio, the Mets are in great shape. Just pray for health. He’s only crossed the 180 inning threshold 2 times this far. If he can make it through it a third time, the team should be competing for a playoff spot.

Prediction: Wheeler continues his improvement, with totals close to 2018. He is an overqualified #3 pitcher, and wins 15 games. The Mets will have to overpay Wheeler to keep him.

Steven Matz (LHP)

Career – 3.98 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9.

2018 – 3.97 ERA 1.25 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9

Speaking on injuries, Matz’s face is used as the dictionary example of disabled list.

I think all the injuries have started to sap Matz’s ability. But then again, if you look at his numbers versus his career, they’re right in line, if not a little better. The only knock is his walks, but even that isn’t atrocious. It should also bounce back closer to his mean this season.

Last year was Matz’s career high in innings – 154. That’s part of the problem. He cannot be relied on for a full season of starts. Still, the Mets chose not to get any established starters in free agency. A great decision.

Part of Matz’s problem was his elevated status in the Mets organization. As the only lefty for a long time, the team needed Matz to be good. I think the fans hoped for more than his ability showed. Remember his debut season – he pitched 4 good games and got hurt. Then in the playoffs, he barely went 4 inning a each start. It wasn’t setting the world on fire. However, after that, he was “established”. I think most fans put him too high on a pedestal. This includes me.

I think Matz can be fine. He’s not a front end starter, but as a #4, he’s fine. Just don’t expect ace status because he’s been included with aces before.

Prediction: Matz only gets to about 120 ok innings. The Mets scramble for a replacement, and end of settling on Corey Oswald. Doesn’t that sound delightful.

Jason Vargas (LHP)

Career – 4.27 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9.

2018 – 5.77 ERA 1.41 WHIP 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9

This was a disaster from day 1. Vargas has never been anything but a below average pitcher. A hot first half in 2017 made him a free agent target, even though everybody knew it was smoke and mirrors. Hell, the 2017 second half confirmed the first half was a fluke. The Mets still decided to sign Vargas for two years so they could market acquiring a formar all-star. What a complete sham.

Hitters are still rounding the bases on Vargas from 2018. He was atrocious. The stats above don’t accurately describe how many games the Mets lost in the first two innings of his starts. Vargas strikes out nobody and pitches to contact, a great combination in today’s game. Honestly, the 8.2 Ks per 9 are a fluke as well. That should go down.

There was no reason for the Mets not to sign another starter. Instead the Wilpons are going to Wilpon. He is the fifth starter and there’s nothing any of us can do about it. He’s having a very good spring, but I don’t trust that. Not after what I saw last year. Not after he said he would have been fine with the Mets bringing in another starter.

He’s not even confident in himself! Jesus he sucks. I don’t like this man as a baseball player. I wouldn’t even stream him in fantasy.

Well, I guess it depends on the matchup.

Prediction: 3 words – Suck, suckier, suckiest.

Vargas 2018 ERA after this post – 6.24