New York Mets 2019 Preview – Shortstop

Traditionally, top prospects get every opportunity to succeed. Most players aren’t Ronald Acuna – hitting the ground running from his debut to becoming a first round fantasy pick in his next season. Personally, I think that’s a bit high, but there’s no doubt Acuna is the real deal. As a rookie, he was everything the Braces could hope for. Oh joy. I look forward to him stomping on my heart for 15 years.

Not every prospect is a stud from day 1. We all know Mike Trout is the best player in the baseball (We do know this right?… RIGHT?!). Few people remember his initial September call up. Before Trout was a household name, at least where people care about baseball, he struggled. He struggled pretty hard. If the Angels only considered that one cup of coffee, our outlook on the player would be vastly different. Instead, Trout started the next season in the minors, came up mid season, and haven’t stopped crushing baseballs since.

Prospects can bust too. This should be obvious, but it’s easy to forget with all their hype. I remember racing home from work to watch the debut of Jason Hayward. I have no idea why I wanted to see a Braves prospect, but all the talk of him made me excited. In his first at bat, Hayward hit a devastating homer. It was the perfect debut. As a rookie, Hayward was a monster. Honestly, that was his best season.

Since, the natural power has evaporated. Somehow, a 6’5” chiseled man can barely crank out 20 Homers. He became one of the most overpaid players in baseball. His biggest contributions are defensive, and his speech during the World Series that apparently motivated the Cubs to win. I’ve been bashing Todd Frazier, but Hayward is basically the 1 percenter version. He signed a contract for $184 million dollars. Frazier feels like a discount.

Boot Frazier from the team all the same of course.

No prospect is a sure thing. Few players were touted as much as Hayward, and if it wasn’t for the pedigree, I doubt he’d get a quarter of what’s he’s making now. When a player is a front-end prospect, he’ll get extra chances. If he fails with his first team, he’ll get another chance with a second, and third. It takes a lot for a top ranked prospect to be out of baseball. Heck, Josh Hamilton’s addictions took him out of baseball for years, and when he came back, he still dominated. Imagine what could have been with Hamilton.

Finding the next superstar is every team’s goal. After a team’s own farm system and free agency, the next option is to find a former top prospect and help them reach their lofty potential. This is easier said than done of course, but it does happen. Typically it happens for the Cardinals.

Why then, are Mets fan ready to cast Amed Rosario aside after a year and a half? I really don’t understand it.

In 2017, Rosario was a top 3 prospect in baseball. Depending on which ranking you viewed, he was #1. Keith Law had him at #1, and we all know ESPN is the most knowledgable sports resource of all. Sarcasm aside, it was either Rosario or Gleyber Torres. While rising through the ranks, Rosario was pegged as an elite glove. Met fans compared him to Rey Ordonez, which was a mixed bag to say the least. As he matured, scouts began to cite the power potential. He was no longer just a glove – he was a five tool prospect that was going to be our franchise player. He was this generation’s Jose Reyes. It was ironic because Reyes was back on the team, but nobody likes talking about that.

When Rosario got the call, he showed flashes of his potential. He also got to show off his speed. Somehow, the speed was never hyped as it should have been. He’s incredibly fast, putting stolen bases back on the table. Seriously, if Reyes wasn’t on the team, I’d say Rosario was his reincarnation. It was crazy. Unfortunately, Rosario did not start off like Ronald Acuna.

Rosario didn’t hit like we’d hope. His average was about .255, which isn’t bad, but not great. The more alarming issue was his complete lack of walks. Rosario struggled to reach a .300 OBP, removing him from the top of the order. Often, he batted ninth, rarely getting to use his speed. While he flashed his potential at the plate, it’s been very inconsistent.

More alarming for Rosario is his glove. His best skill has been shaky at times. Rosario has made some errors a player of his talent should not. I’m not sure if it’s been concentration or nerves, but he has not been the defensive wizard many projected. This could certainly change, but for me, that’s been the biggest disappointment thus far.

While Rosario is firmly entrenched as the started this year, there’s some heat in the minors. Andres Gimenez is the Mets top prospect. While he’s only in double A, he’ll be 21 this season, the same age Rosario was when he debuted. There’s been a lot of talk about him, and guess what? He actually walks. While he’s still a bit away, there’s rumblings about Gimenez taking over at SS next year, moving Rosario somewhere else (3B, 2B) or maybe off the roster. Don’t forget, he was involved in the Realmuto trade talks. It seems the consensus view has soured on him.

I strongly disagree with this. Sure, Rosario overall has been a tad bit underwhelming, but he’s only had 700 At Bats. It’s not as though he’s been a complete negative, and he’ll only be 23 this year. He’s flashed in spring training and he should improve. I don’t think assuming the next man up will be better helps much. That’s always dangerous talk, especially for the Mets. Remember, Rosario was THE top prospect just two years ago. Let’s not give up on him just yet.

Amed Rosario (RHB) –

Career – .255/.290/.384,

2018 – .256/.295/.381.

The career stats are a bit misleading since the vast majority of his at bats came last year. Still, they’re eerie similar. At least he’s consistent, right?

The first thing we need Amed to work on is his patience. He doesn’t have to walk 10% of the time like the top-tier of hitters, but he can’t sit at 3%. That’s ridiculous. With that kind of walk rate, he’s have to hit .300 to provide offensive value. Either that or he’d have to hit 35 HRs. I don’t think that’s happening in the future. With some walks, not only can Rosario move up in the order, he might get to show off his speed more.

I expect a bit of a power jump. We forget how young Amed is, but at 23, he’s still filling out. The power has flashed at time, but there’s real 20-20 potential. He also has the speed to turn doubles into triples. The Mets don’t have a lot of power so injecting some speed will be key. Rosario is really the only guy who’ll be able to provide that.

Finally, I want to see that gold glove on display. There’s no reason Rosario shouldn’t be a plus defender. Just being average is a disappointment. He should have incredible range. Hopefully we’ll see this on display in 2019.

Prediction: While he won’t be a superstar, Rosario will make strides this year, increasing his average, walk rate and power. I expect a much more consistent defensive performance, but he’ll probably still hit at the bottom of the order. That’s not an insult – the lineup is pretty deep. There’s a chance he’ll blow up this year, but I think Rosario will slowly build instead of exploding on the scene. Wait for 2020 for outlandish predictions. A 20/20 season is definitely obtainable.