New York Mets 2019 Preview – Outfield

We’re going to start this position preview with something a bit different from normal – positivity. I know, I was surprised too.

Last season, Brandon Nimmo had a great spring and was surprisingly given a role on the Mets Opening Day roster. Nimmo’s scouting report was a player who worked the count and drew walks. That was really it. There wasn’t anything else on his report. He didn’t even have a picture – just a generic Question Mark like in Franchise Mode 5 years in the future.  Many outlets mocked the Mets who having a player like Nimmo on their team. He was the textbook Moneyball player, a tough out but far from a superstar. The New York media didn’t understand how Nimmo was anything but the last man on the bench.

The New York Media also includes Mike Francesca, so take that for what it’s worth.

Nimmo was a complete revelation. The scouting report wasn’t wrong – Nimmo was among the league leaders in walks and on base percentage. More surprising was how well Nimmo hit. While he’s .263 average seems rather pedestrian, when you factor in a .404 On Base percentage, it’s more than acceptable. His Slugging Percentage of .483 was much higher than anticipated. As a rule of thumb, Isolated power is a sign of a good hitter. This metric subtracts the average from slugging and the net result is a decent stat to tell a players power. .200 ISO is a great number to reach. Nimmo, projected as a light hitting walk machine, had an ISO of .220. This is what makes me excited about Nimmo’s future. Not only have we found a lead off hitter, he’s got the ability to hit for extra bases. I don’t know if Nimmo’s 2018 is completely repeatable, but he’s closer to this than just an Also-ran.

Thus concludes the positives of the 2018 Mets outfield.

Most of the other hitters suffered injury early and often. While Michael Conforto played for the vast majority of the season, he was still recovering from his shoulder injury for the first half. First half Conforto was brutal to watch. While he still walked, the power was not there. Many at bats ended with a stringing strike, or a ground ball right into the shift.

Now don’t worry. There’s a reason my avatar is a Conforto picture. His second half, which we’ll talk about in detail later, was much closer to his norm. I’m confident he’s recovered and should be back to his all-star level this season. But watching him flail in the first half hurt. I felt personally attacked. I fully blame the Wilpons and would like them to pay my therapy bills. I’ll wait.

Still waiting guys. Let’s be adults about it and pay my bills, damn it.

Plenty of other Mets OFs struggled to merely play in games. Juan Lagares got off to a hot start in 2018. As soon as people remembered the Mets had high hopes for Lagares, he was immediately hurt and on the DL for the remainder of the year. Things got so bad that Austin Jackson had an impact on the roster on September. I was a bit disappointed Jackson didn’t return. Fortunately, I remembered that Jackson hasn’t been good since 2013 and didn’t feel so bad. Again, it was not a good season.

Of course, the worst injury of all was Yoenis Cespedes. A young, excited Bloggin Hood and the Merry Men were in attendance to an early May game when Cespedes was removed in the first inning of a contest. We all assumed that it was a hamstring pull – you know, the Cespedes special. I won’t lie to you – I don’t remember what the injury was. In many ways, it was irrelevant. Later it was revealed that Cespedes needed surgery on both heels. This didn’t occur until the end of the season.

Why?

Why in the world didn’t this happen sooner? I will not get into the fact the Mets organization knew about this ailment as far back as 2017 and didn’t budge at all. This depressing turn of events really sets a damper on the first half of the season. As of now, Cespedes is confident he will play this year, though his not sure if it’ll be July or September. Not a lot of comfort in that.

Going into the year, the Mets have Conforto, Nimmo and a bunch of question marks. The best offensive option for the third OF spot is Jeff McNeil. However, McNeil is a trained infielder. He’s never played a major league inning on grass and his Spring Training confirms he probably shouldn’t. With Jed Lowrie’s injury, McNeil should slide into third for the foreseeable future. When Lowrie returns, we can have this conversation again. McNeil’s bat needs to be in the lineup whenever possible.

The biggest problem will become defense. Conforto and Nimmo aren’t bad defenders, but they’re certainly not center fielders. By adding McNeil to the mix, the Mets will ask one of their offensive cornerstones to extend themselves in the field. Covering Center is challenging enough, but adding in an inexperienced LF to the mix could be brutal. In the Show 19, this will almost assuredly be my lineup,* but in real life, I don’t think you can take the defensive downgrade.

There are internal options to cover the defensive gap. The Mets have two plus Centerfield Defenders in Lagares and Keon Broxton. The issue is neither one could hit a beach ball with a tennis racket. Playing either would be a significant hit to the offense, which the Mets still need. The lineup is better than 2018, but it’s not elite to the point we can afford to have a walking out and the pitcher. In fact, I’d take deGrom at the dish over either of these two.

Heck, maybe we can just play Carlos Gomez. I mean, sure he’s a walking corpse, but he was good for like a season and a half, right?

If the team can hold down the fort until Cespedes comes back, an OF of Conforto, Nimmo and Cespedes is offensively elite. However, even this trio could struggle in the field. We have no idea how well Cespedes can move, if at all, and again, CF remains a defensive wasteland. But man, think of all that offense. That would be something. The last time the Mets had a good offense, I was in college wearing my hat backwards.

The Mets will view Cespedes as a trade acquisition if he’s ready in August. By this, I mean, the Mets will not make a trade if in contention. That won’t be frustrating at all. Yoenis might be the most important player on the roster this year, and there’s a significant chance he doesn’t play all year. Great. Welcome to the New York Mets.

 

Michael Conforto (LHB)

Career – .251/.349/.476

2018 – .243/.350/.448. 28 HRs in 543 At Bats.

Boy, those numbers really don’t look that impressive, do they?

Conforto has an up and down resume in his young career. The highs are enormous – homeruns off ace pitchers in the playoffs and a 2017 All Star appearance. There’s also been some lows – his struggles in 2016 and the first half of last year. To say Conforto was lost last season isn’t fair. Even in the middle of a huge slump, he still walked. Conforto may strike out a tad bit too much for me, but he somehow has a great eye. I still put the full blame on Conforto’s struggles on the Wilpons. In 2016, the team kept messing with his lineup spot, then barely played him. Last year, being rushed back from a horrific shoulder injury couldn’t help matters.

For the record I give Conforto full credit for all his success.

However, don’t for a second think I’m down on my boy. Here’s every reason to be excited about 2019. I kept it hidden for a real fanboy paragragh.

2018 Second Half – .273/.356/.539, 17 HRs in 256 At Bats.

That my friends, is the Conforto I know and love. All the pieces of his game is there – solid average, good walk rate and plus power. This year, Conforto needs to hit 30+ home runs. Considering he hit 28 last year, I don’t think it’ll be a problem. While the shift will prevent a .300 average from being a real possibility, I think .270-.280 is reasonable. The power is there, the walks are there, what’s not to like? We’ve never seen Conforto put it together for a full season, but I think this is the year. He’ll be heading back to the All Star Game in 2019 and Met fans can breathe a sigh of relief, Just remember I was on Conforto early.

A lot of this sounds way dirtier than I meant it too.

The biggest area Conforto needs to make strides is against lefties. The Mets are heavy southpaw, and while Conforto has sat a lot in the past, there’s no time for that now. He needs to take that next step and be solid against the same handed pitchers. If he can produce even just a .250 average against them, he’s going to be an absolute monster. He’s shown flashes of success against them, so I think it’s possible.

Defensively, Conforto is solid. He’s not the quickest player, but he isn’t a negative and has made some gems in the past. Note he is not a center fielder, and that’s ok, but for the Mets to have their best offensive lineup, he may have to be.

It’s ok, I believe in you Mike.

Whoops, sorry. I thought that last line was a DM. I’ll have to re-send that after the post.

Prediction: Conforto returns to his 2017 line, except he does that for a whole season, he posts career highs in all the counting stats and finishes top 10 in the MVP race. Yeah, you heard me.

Brandon Nimmo (LHB)

Career – .264/.391/.449

2018 – .263/.404/.483.

We’ve already discussed some of Nimmo’s strengths but there’s two points that I think conform Nimmo is the real deal. First, Nimmo led the NL in OPS as late as July. OPS isn’t a perfect stat, but it’s pretty damn telling on a player’s skill. To lead the league in on base + slugging that late in the year is huge. It didn’t stay that way, but his .887 OPS on the season is a giant number, close to the .900 mark typically reserved for MVP candidates.

The second, and possibly more important stat, is Nimmo got better in the second half. He actually improved from the torrid start. Now sure, other players surpassed him statistically, but Nimmo was right there with them. That’s fantastic news. Had he been a flash in the pan, I would have expected him to dip after June. I don’t know if he’s an elite caliber player, but the stats show he’s legit.

Nimmo isn’t perfect. He still struggles with lefties as most southpaws do. However, he wasn’t an automatic out against them. He still drew his walks, and really, that’s why you want with Nimmo. He’s not surpassing teen HR power, but the doubles will add up.

Prediction: Nimmo is basically the same player in 2018. His number dip a bit but the production is 95% of 2018. That’s a borderline all-star, probably on the ballot for the last addition for the NL squad.

 

 Juan Lagures (RHB)

Career – .260/.300/.367,

2018 – .339/.375/.390 (In 59 At Bats)

Boy those  2018 numbers looked good until you look at the at bats. Can we cover those up?

Lagares’s worst trait is he’s rarely available to play. It’s the toll all the injuries have taken. Once arguably the best defensive player in the game, Lagares has lost significant steps in that regard. He’s better than average, sure, but he’s not a run saving monster. You can live with a questionable bat when the defense is otherworldly. When it’s just good defense, the player becomes easily replaced.

Lagares can hit lefties very well. That matters on this team. He probably plays against righties until he inevitably gets hurt in late April. It’s a shame.

Other than the lefty advantage, he’s helpless. There’s no power, no average and no willingness to walk. That’s not the combo you’re looking for. I think this is the end of the road for Lagares with New York.

Prediction: By the end of May, Lagares will be replaced by Keon Broxton. There’s no more upside left. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not part of the 25 man roster by season’s end, whether it’s injuries or ineffectiveness. I was in on Lagures three years ago, but it’s time to cut bait.

 

Keon Broxton (RHB)

Career – .221/.313/.421

2018 – .179/.281/.410 (78 At bats)

 

Sure, the numbers don’t look pretty but I like this acquisition. Broxton has plenty of raw tools but has never put it together. The sample size is small; Broxton only has 701 at bats in the majors. The biggest issue is he has 292 strikeouts in those at bats. That’s insanely high. To succeed, Broxton should not be striking out 40%+ of the time.

There are skills here. His career .200 ISO is great. There’s a real power and speed combination. Not only is 20-20 in play, Broxton accomplished this in 2017. He will need the at bats to get there, and I don’t think he’ll be a mainstay in the lineup. I sure hope he isn’t.

Broxton is great defensively. At this point I think he’s better than Lagares in the field. His speed will be vital with the iffy defense around him. However, I don’t see him playing every day. His career .256 minor league average is telling. It’s not likely the strikeouts go away any time soon.

Prediction : Broxton begins the year as a defensive sub. Eventually, he takes over Lagures’ role though also proves inefficient. He’ll provide 10 homers, some steals and 3 web gems but he’s far from a regular.

 

Carlos Gomez (RHB)

Career – .252/.313/.412

2018 – .208/.298/.336

Never forget that if the Mets had their way, they would have acquired Carlos Gomez at the trade deadline over Yoenis Cespedes. At the time, I’ll admit that I was in on Gomez. We needed a lead off hitter and center fielder, and Gomez provided both. Then, Gomez failed a physical, from Mets doctors mind you, and the trade was rejected. A few days later Cespedes joined the Mets, and hit approximately 450 HRs down the stretch. My original call was a poor one.

Since the failed physical, Gomez has been a complete disaster. He is nowhere close to the player at his peak. He doesn’t run the same, nor hit for the same power. He had a very good three-year run, but that’s about it. I don’t see him ever cracking the 25 man roster, but it is the Mets so who knows for sure. If he does play, I will be shedding several tears.

Prediction: Gomez struggles in triple A for a month and gets cut. He winds up on the Pirates because why not?

Yoenis Cespedes (RHB)

Career – .274/.328/.498

2018 – .262/.325/.496 (141 At bats)

Injury – Heels – No timetable on his return.

his is the 30 million dollar question. Nobody in the Mets organization has given any sort of time-table on his return. Cespedes says he will play this season, but he gave a three-month window when asked when. Anything I say here is guesswork, other than Cespedes looks like he hit a few dessert bars during the recovery period. I’m not that worried about it – he’s a gym rat, for better or worse. Maybe don’t try to squat 1,000 pounds again Yoenis. 850 is plenty.

The potential upside of Cespedes returning is immeasurable. As the roster is currently constructed, he’s the missing piece. The Mets need a right-handed power bat. You can plug Cespedes at clean up, bat Conforto and Cano around him and have a great heart of the order. With the theoretical pitching staff they have, this would be a playoff team.

Of course, we have no idea if Cespedes can run. Or hit for that matter. When you miss over a year of baseball, timing and power can evaporate. There’s no telling what Cespedes can bring. He could be the 2015 borderline MVP, or an unplayable negative player. I have no idea. But no matter what, Yoenis Cespedes remains the Mets most important offense piece. He could completely change their trajectory. And that’s frightening.

Prediction: Oh boy.

Ok, I think Cespedes returns right after the all-star break. All the hushed info is to keep the return a secret. When Cespedes returns, I think he’ll struggle a bit, but by September will look like his old self. If he gets the Mets to the post season again, you won’t find a single fan who can bash him. Fingers crossed friends.

*A complete lie as I’ll be activating Cespedes off the DL immediately. McNeil will play third and Todd Frazier will be traded for a stick of gum and two shattered bats to be named later.