NBA Top Shot – A Modern Money Sink Hole Or 2021s Virtual Fyre Fest.
April 14, 2021Modern Philosopher Bruno Mars once said “I’m a dangerous man with some money in my pocket.” He may, or may not have said this with a hip thrust. His bold proclamation is true; people with money can be dangerous, usually to their own savings. There are many productive things that people could do with there deposable income, especially during a pandemic. Despite this, some people have chosen to “invest” their money in Top Shot * 1, a decision that Dr. Mars would not think is 24K Magic.
If you don’t know what a Top Shot is, that’s ok. People investing thousands into the product don’t understand it either. Just know if you’re looking to lose money, burning it is not only quicker, but at least provides heat. There’s a lot to discuss about Top Shot, and no, you won’t be learning anything about them today, but first, we need to explain how we got to this point. As always, it’s because we, as a society in general, are morons.
The 2020 Collectable Boom
During Quarantine, people began to develop new hobbies. Remember last April, when everyone was learning how to bake bread from scratch? That actually seemed like a good use of time. Not only did people learn a new skill, they ate nutritious bread… Well, nutritious might be a stretch if you look at a food pyramid from the last ten years, but still, it was valuable. And if you only have the old food pyramid from the 80s, where fifteen servings of carbs were recommended, you were golden.
Of course, two months into quarantine, people’s desire to learn things were spent. Instead, attention was spent on less productive hobbies. For example, instead of writing, I brought Madden 21 and hated about every minute of it. Did that stop me from playing it four times a week? Of course not. Why didn’t I spend that time baking bread? Or you know, writing. Hell, I could have just ranting on Madden.
Note to self – start outlining a Madden post.
I turned to Madden because I loved playing the game when I was younger. It was nostalgic, even if it wasn’t as fun as when I played as a teenager** 2. Did it make Madden a smart purchase? No, but it did provide some relief from the daily stress.
Nostalgia is having a moment this quarantine. Look no further than the Pokémon Card boom as proof. Before 2020, I hadn’t thought of Pokémon Cards in two decades, and that comes from someone who still dabbles in the games. I remember collecting the cards as a kid, getting bored on them, and placing them in a binder. Said binder suffered severe water damage during Hurricane Sandy. Keep this in mind.
I don’t know if it was boredom, Nostaligia, or because people think Charizard is cool, but the card market blew up. People brought cards at alarming rate and a niche hobby became lucrative… for some.
In 2020, an original Charizard holographic card sold for $360,000. No, I did not add an extra zero, not did I forget a decimal point. A shiny piece of cardboard from twenty years ago can buy a house. That’s insane. I mean, Logan Paul, who brought another copy of the card for $150,000 looks like a shrew investor now!
Also, who the hell is Logan Paul?
(Courtesy of Wikipedia, and Logan Paul I assume)
Personally, I don’t quite get card collecting as an adult. As a kid, it made total sense. You can discuss with your friends, made trades, and even use them as intended, to play the Pokemon Card game. Do you think anyone is spending $360,000 to shuffle cards and deal them out? Hell, no. That card is going into Carbonite like Han Solo until it’s flipped for a small country. If somebody offered you Hungary for a Holographic Charizard, who says no?
I can understand the nostalgia. I can understand buying a few packs and killing an hour hoping to get a rare card and make a buck. Truthfully, I can understand trying to jump on E-Bay and buy a few of your favorite Pokemon cards.*** 3
But if somebody is selling a card for over $350K, that means not only was somebody willing to pay the total, but others were likely willing to come close. My advise to all of you is to see if you have any cards in your basement. If so, SELL. SELL NOW!**** 4
Let’s circle back to the binder in my basement for a moment. Now, I don’t remember if it was an original, but I did have a Holographic Charizard in that binder. I’ve been telling myself it was in poor condition before the floor, and likely not worth much. But there’s a timeline where I’m writing a blog about how I brought a three bed, two and a half bath home with a pool with a trading card.
Well, I won’t be sleeping tonight. Fantastic.
If Pokémon cards blew up, you should expect sports cards have also been reborn. Like Pokémon Cards, I collected these as a kid too. I had both basketball and baseball cards, but never anything that would be worth a dime. I remember having a lot of the early 90s players that might have been the #3 options in NBA Jam. That binder wouldn’t fetch a three wall, two and a half door house without some expert haggling.
I remembered baseball cards being the standard as a child, but today, football and basketball cards are peeking in value. This makes sense; nobody cares about baseball unless they live near a team. It’s the most regional sport in America. I can understand other sports cards surpassing in popularity. What I don’t understand is how sports cards work anymore.
I tried googling some information, and never felt older. Cards aren’t as simple as they were in the 90s, where every player got one, and rookie cards typically contained all the value. Today, individual players get different levels of cards, with rarer versions costing significantly more. The most expensive versions have limited runs, presumably to inflate their value. Ironically, this system matched Pokémon’s, where holographic cards were printed less often than the rest.
Imagine reading that paragraph in 1998. I could never jump back into card collecting. I’d be happy if I opened a pack and found a Michael Conforto or Dom Smith. Instead, I need the double diamond holographic gold version 1/50 to make any money***** 5. Then again, we all know I’d be framing any Conforto card anyway, current slump aside so the profit is moot.
Just because I’m out on card collecting doesn’t mean the rest of the world agrees. In 2020, an extremely rare, signed Mike Trout card sold for a staggering $3.8 million dollars. $3.8 million? Jesus Christ. With that money, I could buy 10 Charizards and have change for a Venusaur.
Then again, I don’t think the Charizards are autographed.
This particular example was for a one of a kind card. There’s only one in existence, and Trout’s signature would spike the value, but come on. Nobody needs to spend this kind of money on a card. You can’t put that in you bike spokes. I mean, you could, but that’s an expensive choice.
The moral of the story here, is to check your card collections from when you were a kid. And if you have anything that’s potentially valuable, SELL! SELL NOW!**** 6 The cost of players seems to revolve around three things – rarity, popularity and condition. If you tended to bite your cards as kid, I don’t think you’ll be profiting off of your collection.
Out of curiosity, I checked the going price of Ken Griffey Jr cards. As a kid, Griffey was my favorite athlete, even more than Michael Jordan, though it was close. Jordan may have had Space Jam but I wore my hat backwards until I was 27 because of Jr. I’m not sure how embarrassing that is, but it’s true, so there. According to eBay, Griffey’s cards range from $200 for a run of the mill card, to $15,000 for a mint condition rookie.
So yeah, have you stopped reading this article to check your basement, or call your parents and see if they have your cards? Please, do so. It’s the financially responsible thing to do. This article will be here when you come back. Feel free to send me 10% of your profits for this helpful tip. 20% is customary, but I understand times are tough.
There’s no question that card collecting – sports, Pokémon, or otherwise – is having a renaissance. Naturally, companies want to capitalize on the moment. Unlike what Dr. Mars says, it’s the companies (and again, our awful discipline) that are dangerous when we have some money in our pocket. In my opinion, Top Shot is the most aggressive of these collectibles. It’s the natural next wave of card collecting, except that it doesn’t really make a lick of sense. I’m going to try and explain things here, but here’s a source if you’re into you know, educating yourself like a loser:
An Attempt to Explain Top Shot
Buckle up readers. I have no idea where this ride is going.
Top Shot combine people’s love of collecting with the best part of sports – huge moments. Our favorite memories of sports can be summarized in a handful of plays. Nobody remembers the entire game when it’s over. They remember the titanic home run, the Alley-Oop, or the one handed Touchdown grab. It’s why SportsCenter became so popular – sometimes the best plays are better than the full experience.
Rather than actually collecting cards, a still image that’ll show stats and provide generic facts; Top Shot provides more. Instead of just getting a stoic picture, you’re getting a few seconds of video. Players past and present get multiple different collectibles, showcases a highlight of each player’s plays.
Truthfully, this seems like the natural progression. Consider how music technology involved in my life time. As a preteen, I had cassette tapes and listened to the radio. Later, came CDs, which quickly gave way to the iPod. Today, nearly all our music is digital. I don’t know if I have a physical CD in my apartment, but there’s 2,500 songs on my laptop. In the same vein, wouldn’t card collecting have the same progression? From easily damaged, static cardboard to digital gifs of plays. I fully admit, this seems like a good idea… In theory.
Unlike with standard cards, where rarity and fame play the key roles, Top Shot adds a new element. The more memorial or spectacular a play is, the more potential value a Top Shot has. This could spin the valuation method of cards. Do we consider the talent of the player, or the awe of the highlight more?
Let’s compare two players for a second – Shawn Kemp and Tim Duncan. Both players had extremely different career arcs. Kemp was a rising Superstar in the mid 90s, but fizzled out almost as quickly as he became a household name. Meanwhile, Tim Duncan is a dead lock top ten player of all time. He was a dominant force throughout his long career, and remains extremely underappreciated. A Tim Duncan basketball card should have significantly more value than a Shawn Kemp.
But who had the better highlights? Unless you have a fetish for bank shots, box outs, and fundamentals, it’s easily Kemp. I would expect the plethora of the Reign Man’s dunks becoming Top Shot gold. I mean, Kemp dominated highlight packages from the 90s. This could be a revival for the former Supersonic.
I mean, I’m completely guessing because I, like every other functional member of society, have no idea how Top Shot frigging works. Maybe we only care about the famous players anyway.
Of course, the best players all have memorial plays. I belittled Duncan’s greatness a bit there; he has tons of highlights in his career. I’m sure Top Shot could package him receiving the MVP or the Finals trophy and it would sell like crazy. But what would create more buzz, a Duncan clutch block or Shaq shattering a backboard?
That’s an honest question. I’m trying to learn here. Feel free to chime in at any time.
The (Lengthy) Flaws
In theory, I like the idea. We’ve modernized card collecting, as we’ve seem to do with nearly everything. In practice, I have a serious question. Why can’t somebody just search for a particularly highlight and you know, watch it? Why would anyone in their right mind want to pay for a clip when they’re literally free on the internet? I don’t have an answer here.
Sure, you can counter that trading cards are just cardboard that have no real value. Honestly, that’s the point of the article. I think all of it is stupid. However, there is a difference. At least with a card, you own it. You have the physical card in front of you. It’s the difference in owning a piece of art and googling the piece. With Top Shot, you’ll never physically own anything. I’m sure a lot of people don’t care about that. Those same people probably dropped $1,000 for a Shawn Kemp highlight and have regrets.
My biggest confusion is value. I understand it’s similar to how physical cards obtain value, but how would digital gifs have any market power? Well, there’s a couple of factors involved.
First, is that getting packs of Top Shot seem to be a crap shoot. Every time I hear about a new release of the digital cards hitting shelves (digital ones of course), it seems the supply is short and demand is high. People want in absurdly long queues hoping for a chance to purchase these things, and often come up empty handed.
In many ways, it seems like the hype is fueling the fire. People are intrigued by this “high tech” idea and want to buy in. Then, when they fail to land any cards on their first attempt, the desire grows. Apparently, people who are able to buy cheap packs, which started as low as $9, are selling them for up to four figures. This really is like winning a lottery. Sure, maybe these things will be worth something like that 25 year old Charizard card. Then again, maybe all of my $2 bills, Pogs and Darkwing Duck Action figures will get me a house***** 7. Consider my skeptical.
The second pricing factor is the rarity of the highlight. Just like with cards, the better the highlight, and the more prolific the player, the more value the Top Shot will have. I’m not sure how the rarity of said highlights are determined but Dapper Labs is behind their creation and distribution. No, that’s the company name. Honest.
Can we talk about that name? Who the hell would name their company Dapper Labs? It sounds like a group of kids who are trying too hard to be cool in High School, and failed spectacularly. This is in the running for worst company name. Unless they want to sponsor this post. I’ll rebrand to Dapper Hood if the cost is right.
Cringe name aside, they must be doing something right.
The final price factor and here’s the real kicker, is that the cards are backed by Blockchain. Oh good, cryptocurrency. It’s starting to make sense now – cryptocurrency, digital gifs and exclusivity are all trendy words. No wonder people are all over it; it’s basically twitter hash tags in product form. The Dapper Labs name makes more sense.
Cryptocurrency worries me. I won’t pretend I understand it. I mean, sure, I sort of understand it, but I don’t comprehend where the sustainable value comes from. It feels like everyone agreed cryptocurrency just works and we all accepted it. So, despite the fact nobody can define what cryptocurrency is, we’re tying collectable gifs to it. Fantastic. It’s not even the good cryptocurrency that’s worth a ton. I guess it’s better than Dogecoin.
I know I’m writing in circles, but I still don’t see how this is better than a card? Sure, it’s cool to own a set of highlights from your favorite players. Unfortunately, most of us already know how to use search engines. Unless you’re getting some Blockchain on the side, I don’t see how I’d want to invest in these digital cards.
When I first heard about Top Shot, I assumed people were buying into the rights of the highlight. If this worked like a stock, I’d understand the appeal. Imagine buying a share of Michael Jordan’s game winner in the ’98 finals, or LeBron’s chase down block against the Warriors in Game 7. You know these highlights will be played for eternity. If you owned a piece of that, or even got a dividend when they were used, it could be a gold mine.
I quickly realized that made no sense. The NBA would not want to do that. But if they can get the masses to pay for highlights widely available… Hey, I get why they’re doing it for sure. I just don’t understand why the masses are going crazy for it.
Yet, every day I log on to twitter, I set Top Shot information in numerous. People continue to share pictures of their collection, and their inability to purchase a pack. Highlights for average (at best) players are sold for insanely high prices and the values keep rising. To some, this seems like a great investment. There are smart people who are putting large chunks of money into this.
But this is going to burst hard, right? I mean, trading cards are having a boom right now, but this has happened numerous times before. Just like the stock market, the value of the cards will fall at some point. However, unlike the stock market, the interest in the cards may never reach the current height again. In the near future, we all won’t be under lock downs trying to eliminate the spread of Covid, God willing.
I don’t want to seem like a conspiracy nuts, but with all these buzzword sounding features, this seems a bit convoluted. Like, doesn’t this feel like Billy McFarland concocted this? Granted, Top Shot is a legitimate product, but the scarcity, hype and prices seem manufactured. It people keep going nuts over this, there’s going to be horror stories. The hardest hit will only be able to afford the Fyre Festival cheese sandwiches.
The opposite could be true. I could be an idiot and Top Shot could be the next huge success. This could become a mainstream hobby like mainstays labeled as passing fads. People used to think video games and computers were fads too. Top Shot won’t remain an NBA exclusive forever. Eventually other sports will capitalize on this market. Except baseball because that sport hates fun and its fans.
But someone paid $15,000 for a Terry Rozier Top Shot. $15,000 for a gif of Terry Rozier. No offense to you, Mr. Rozier, but people are frigging crazy. I don’t think I would have shelled out $1.50
Actually, this isn’t the most ridiculous gif purchase I’ve read about. In fact, Top Shots might be a bargain. Recently, someone paid $600,000 for something called a Nyan Cat. This was a popular video in the early 2010s that featured, as per the article, a cat with a Pop Tart body flying through a rainbow. Oh, ok, cool. I won’t be able to own a home until I’m 55, but a gif of a YouTube video is worth over a half a mill. I’m not angry at the world at all now.
Tell you what. If you like the idea of Top Shot, that’s cool. Maybe you want to buy some classic memes for your collection. Knock yourself out. Literally, in fact. It’ll safe you a few bucks.
I think I’m going to pass on this one. If I miss the boat on this, so be it. I just hope Billy McFarland isn’t the captain for all the investors’ sake. The biggest irony of today’s article? The $200 Griffey card is looking like a steal.
- *The official name is Top Shot, but I really think it should be pluralized to Top Shots. I’m going to stick with Top Shot as that is the name, but it pains me.
- **What stayed consistent was my high interception totals. Why do I keep throwing into triple covered go routes? Is it because I’m a Jets fan?
- **Forget this Charizard shit. Where’s the Bulbasaurs? What about the Heracross or Scizors? For Christ Sake, where’s Krookodile, the Crocodile with Sunglasses?
- ****Bloggin Hood is not responsible if you sell a card and it immediately rises in value. Why the hell would you listen to financial advice on this website? You should be consulting Logan Paul.
- ****Yes, I did obviously make up the terminology, but it’s not that far off from the truth.
- Bloggin Hood is not responsible if you sell a card and it immediately rises in value. Why the hell would you listen to financial advice on this website? Please continue consulting Logan Paul.
- *****I would never sell Darkwing. Come on now.
