2018 Fantasy First Base Preview Or The Shame of Stereotyping a Position

In today’s society, everyone gets offended at everything. Even just five years ago, people were able to get away with so much more. In recent times, this isn’t the case. So many small, inconspicuous comments are dissected and considered offensive.

For example, if I constructed a tweet saying “I enjoy Peanut Butter Sandwiches” I would be called an insensitive buffoon. Responses would include that I didn’t give enough credit to jelly, that I disrespected my body and the body of others by ingesting peanut butter, and that I was a bigoted shit for not thinking of those with Peanut allergies. People would be all sorts of triggered over peanut butter. If I actually made a controversial comment I would likely be crucified upside down for my crimes against humanity.

It’s tough writing anything today without offending someone. Now, personally, I don’t care. I write what I want to write and say what I think is funny. I’m not really too afraid of offended anybody because most of my readers are way worse than me. I haven’t really gotten any angry e-mails or comments yet. Honestly, it’s a bit disappointing. There was that figure skating guru who hated my write-up on his/her favorite sport, but he/she wasn’t quite triggered. He/She just thought I was an idiot and didn’t understand parody. It remains the proudest moment of the site.

Maybe I’m wrong though and the people getting heated are right. Maybe there’s no place in mocking dumb things and throwing around one lines on topics that don’t warrant jokes. Perhaps my rants on all these different topics have been a mistake and I should right some good, Christian moral based blogs. Perhaps a nice reflection on the book of Job is what the world needs.

Nah, I don’t think so. I’m going to keep making Weinstein jokes because they’re funny. All I’m saying is everyone needs to learn to take a joke, until it crosses the line. Let’s just be sure the line isn’t peanut butter. If you’re getting offended by than, you’re probably one of those baby corn supporting assholes.

While we’re on the subject of stereotypes and getting triggered, can we as fantasy baseball players stop with a painful stereotype that first base is a deep position? It hasn’t been for years, yet pundits continue to say the position has a wealth of talent. Stop making mediocre hitters feel good about themselves CBS. This is your fault ESPN. Yahoo, you’re the reason overrated, underachieving strikeout artists go to bed happy when they go 1-4 with three strikeouts.

The stereotypes for first basemen are hurtful for those playing the position. Most are viewed as huge, lumbering players who are hidden defensively so their bat can stay in the lineup. They tend to strike out a ton and outside of the elites of the position, hit for a poor average. Typically, this is a position where there’s a ton of home runs hit. If you’re not getting power from your first baseman, you don’t have a good one.

These are stereotypes that are… well, they’re 100% percent correct. I didn’t say all stereotypes are wrong.

You’ll hear a lot of talk from talking heads about how First Base is deep, and even if you don’t get one early, you’ll be fine. I suppose to can get by with a number of players at the position, but will you feel comfortable? A mediocre first baseman is a huge liability for a team, even if it’s constructed perfectly.

First base is a perfect example of the value of tiers. You need to watch and see where the drop in the tier is and pounce. This probably means using an early pick on a first baseman. If you plan on drafting elite players at weak positions early, I agree. It just so happens that first base is one of those positions for the first time in recent memory.

This doesn’t mean there isn’t potential at first. It’s just that the sure things are so much lower than usual. It’s scary in a way. You really need to do your homework to nail the first baseman this season.

I do recommend taking an elite first baseman in the second round. Typically, the best at the position last longer than I think they should, so you can likely grab another position with your first pick, and follow up with a first baseman of your choice. As a fall back, Jose Abreu, available in round 3, is a must for a first baseless team after two round. If you don’t, well, hopefully you hit on one late.

I recommend making an additional first baseman a bench bat or utility player. Sure, you don’t feel comfortable starting a lower option at first, but the power these lower ranked players provide is crucial. You can stomach a 15^th round pick busting. You cannot deal with a top three pick flaming out.

Speaking of flaming out – this article’s intro. Let’s get to the positional questions.

Where is the first drop off?

I would say the elite first basemen end with Edwin Encarnacion, and honestly, I’m not sure how much I trust him. Still, the production is consistent and even though his age is a risk, I trust him to provide elite power, RBIs and Runs, if not a great average. This means there’s only seven sure-fire first baseman in my eyes. There’s a lot of teams that are going to struggle at first then. Try not to be one of those teams, would you?

Who is the pivot player at first?

Miguel Cabrera had one of, if not the, worst season of his career. At times he looked lost at the plate. However, there’s a chance it was injury that led to his down season. Even if he bounces back to 80% of what he once was, drafters trusting in him will turn a hefty profit. I find it hard to believe somebody who was so good in 2016 would completely fall off the map, especially an all time hitter like Cabrera. I suppose it did happen to Pujols, but he could be 62 years old. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I foresee a comeback for Cabrera. The power will be reduced, but the average, on base and counting stats should be much closer to his old production.

What should I look at for in my first baseman?

This answer may surprise you, but I think the most important thing is average. You can get power from nearly every first baseman on the board. This is why the position is described as deep. But power isn’t rare in 2018. You have to bring something else to the table to be a true fantasy asset. Five of the top six First Baseman ranked all hit for .280 or higher. Most are .300 hitters. The majority of them are also patient and should have close to .400 OBP. Then on top of that, they provide the power. Cody Bellinger doesn’t bring the average, but he’s only 22 and might hit 55 homers in a full season. Jose Abreu doesn’t have the .400 OBP, but .360 is still good and he’s so consistent everywhere else. As you go down the list, you’ll find a few good hitters for average, plenty of power bats, but the balance isn’t there. This might be why the Miggy bounce back looks good. It’s the fantasy version of beer bottles.

Which First Baseman should surprise?

Justin Bour – Bour comes at a tasty discount as all of his former fish teammates were released into the wild. He butchers baseballs, hitting for a decent average and flashing 30 homer power. Though he was on the carving station with an injury last season, he flashed significant potential. Since the Marlins are playing for nothing, Bour should get to slice his way against both righties and lefties. I like him for the puns alone, but this is a good bat available super late.

Matt Olson – While everyone was up in arms about Rhys Hoskins, Olson mashed home runs at a faster rate. The sample size is rather small, but so is Hoskins. So why is Olson going about 80 picks later? Olson also has OF eligibility, and while there’s no way to match his 2017 pace, he doesn’t have to. If he hits decent and his average isn’t atrocious, he’ll be very valuable. This is the perfect power boost for any team.

Which First Baseman will disappoint?

Rhys Hoskins – Well, here’s the inverse. Most of Hoskins’ value comes from a hot stretch when he was called up to the majors. He ended the season on a terrible note, but nobody seems to care. Everybody is too busy falling over trying to rank him higher than the next person. He’s going in roughly the 4^th round in 12 team leagues. He’s a very patient hitter, and I see the reason for excitement, but that’s too early for such a small sample size. I think he’ll be a useful player, but he’ll disappoint based on draft position.

Logan Morrison – I don’t think anyone truly believes in Morrison, but just in case they do, let me pour some cold water on that hype. Morrison doesn’t hit for a high average, and even last year, he only managed .246. His 38 homers was by far his career high and seems to go against all of his established normal stats. As a late power flier, I can see it, but expecting a big contribution is a mistake.

Any Valuable Prospects?

Ryan McMahon – First base doesn’t have many high-end prospects right now, so let’s consider McMahon. There’s a change that the Rockies’ starting first base job is open. You may know that Coors field is amazing for offense. McMahon has some excellent minor league numbers and could slide in nicely for that role at a huge discount. There’s no guarantees. I mean, the team signed Ian Desmond to play first so logically, that would be the answer. But if Desmond goes to the outfield, remember Vince’s forgotten son on draft day.

Player’s Guide:

A – An Average of .280 or above

OB – On Base Percentage of over .350 or an OBP significantly improving on the batter’s average.

HR – More than 30 Home runs, or a slugging percentage above .500.

S – More than 15 stolen bases

D – The potential to have an average below .250 or an .OBP below .325

IR – The player is likely to miss time due to injury.

In addition, I will list players who have additional eligibility based on Yahoo’s rankings. These players have slightly increased value, but don’t get carried away. Players ranked will have the same write up on multiple list. Their outlook doesn’t changed based on defensive flexibility.

High Society 1B Tier

Paul Goldschmidt ARI (A, OB, HR, S) – Humidor be damned, Goldschmidt is still the best first basemen in fantasy. It’s not just the .300 average, the plus power and the good lineup, but it’s the 20+ steals he chips in that really raise his value. I’m not looking for speed in my first baseman, but it sure doesn’t hurt. I don’t think Goldschmidt will lose all that much from the humidor. He’s been great on the road, so he should still put up a very similar final tally. I do think he’s more of a mid-first round pick then the #2 guy off the board now. He’s closer to the other first baseman, but he’s still the best.

Freddie Freeman ATL (A, OB, HR) – Not only does Freeman have the flexibility of playing 3B now, he’s also a really good hitter. Like really good. Had he not injured his wrist last season, Freeman might have been the best at the position. His park plays up his left-handed bat, he’s hits line drives and slugged an incredible .586 in his 117 games. This includes when he struggled a bit after coming back from the injury (wrists are brutal injuries for power hitters). I think the sky is the limit for Freeman, and I expect he’ll be a top five pick next year, especially as all of the Braves prospects start coming up. (3B)

Joey Votto CIN (A, OB, HR) – Votto is one of the three best hitters in baseball. There, I said it. I’m not trying to prove a point, he just is. Despite still being an elite fantasy option, his true talents don’t shine through in fantasy. He won’t swing at bad pitches, leading him to take walks with playing in scoring position. He doesn’t have elite power, though he’s usually good for 30 homers. What he does provide is a shot at the best average in the league, the highest OBP every year, good to great counting stats and a handful of steals. Playing in Cincinnati certainly helps his power, but if he wanted to sell out, I’m sure he could hit 40. I’d rather take him production how it is, personally. His age doesn’t scare me, though I would get a young backup for him in dynasty formats.

Anthony Rizzo CHC (OB, HR) – The only flaw in Rizzo’s game, and we’re really nitpicking here, is that he usually levels off with a .270 average. While it’s not bad, it’s not elite. Eventually, he’ll have a lucky BABIP season and he’ll probably hit .300, but even if he doesn’t, he’s very amazing. Rizzo is a mortal lock for 30-100 with 90 runs. He usually steals close to 10 bases too. He’s an elite contributor in 3 categories, chips in at a fourth and at worst, doesn’t hurt you in average. In OBP leagues, his walk rate put him in the .39% class, which is elite. Oh, and did we mention he’ll likely have 2B eligibility on most sites. It’s the dumbest rule baseball has*¹, but if you can use Rizzo at second and pair him with another 1B masher, do it. He’s in one of the best lienups in baseball. (2B)

Last of the elite 1B tier

Cody Bellinger LAD (OB, HR) – There’s a chance that Bellinger hits .240 and strikes out 40% of the time as people figured him out. There’s also a chance he hits 45 home runs and improves his average in his second season. It depends on what you want to believe. I’m more in the latter camp, though I think he’ll go through some struggles like Aaron Judge. Remember, he’s only 22. For such a young player, his walk rate was pretty solid. The Dodgers have a loaded team, but he’s at the heart of it. Don’t forget, Bellinger will be outfield eligible too, so he offers flexibility. Don’t let his postseason struggles scare you. This is a star. (OF)

Jose Abreu CWS (A,HR) – I remember looking at Abreu’s stats in Cuba, and seeing him have a .600 OBP and it seemed bizarre. I assumed he’d be good in the majors, but I think he’s been better than expected. The problem is people think Abreu is boring. I guess 30-100-.300 is really yawn inducing. His OBP could be a bit better, and I wish he had a better lineup around him for runs an RBIs, but the stats Abreu can control are set in stone. He’s never driven in less than 100 RBIs, and look who he’s been playing with. The team around him seems a little better, but if he gets traded, he might be a real monster.

Edwin Encarnacion CLE (OB, HR, D) – While Encarnacion will hit for plus power, he struggles early in the season. As a true second half player, you deal with a lot of frustration until you get to bask in all the production. Some people won’t want to deal with this. They also won’t want to deal with his .240 average. But he certainly drives in runs, hits for elite power, and walks a ton. Age is a bit of a concern, but I don’t think he’ll fall of a cliff yet. Just know his numbers in May will probably look pretty ugly. If you have him, do not sell for 60 cents on a dollar. If you don’t have him, now is the time to trade for him.

San Diego Padres tier apparently

Eric Hosmer SD (A, OB) – I hate Eric Hosmer. The only reason people give a damn is when he made a dumb base running decision, and because Lucas Duda can’t throw, Hosmer was considered a genius. He’s overrated to the point that Team USA started him over Paul Goldschmidt. It’s like playing Cylde Drexler over Jordan on the Dream Team.

I will admit that Hosmer will hit for a good average, and he walks. But you won’t get the power you’re looking for from him. In Petco, I’d anticipate 20 homers, instead of 25. Even if he hits 25, is that really so good? The counting stats should also take a dip in San Diego. He’s startable, but you’ll need to find power stats elsewhere, and that’s what 1B is supposed to provide. Don’t overdraft. There’s a good chance Miguel Cabrera could be outright better than him (and others) for a fraction of the cost.

Wil Myers SD (HR, S, D, IR) – Outside of Goldschmidt, Myers is the only 20-20 threat at first base. In fact, last season he went 30-20. Why in the world aren’t people more excited about Myers? Is it because he only uses one l for his first name? Or is it because he’s a streaky player who goes a full month without contributing? I’d say it’s about a 50-50 split. Myers is good for Homers and Steals, but he could hit .230. Eirc Hosmer’s arrival should help his RBIS and/or runs, depending on where they bat, but the average is the black mark. Before 2017, he had an extensive injury history, so health needs to be a concern, despite consecutive 155+ game seasons. (OF after the first few weeks of the season)

 

Reclamation Project tier

Miguel Cabrera DET (A, OB, IR) – To say Cabrera struggled is like saying that a glass of grease a day may have an adverse effect on your health. He only hit .249 and didn’t look like himself. Of course, we now know he played hurt with an injury described as one that will never fully go away. People will think he’s done, and while I don’t think we’ll see the triple crown winner again, there’s still talent here. I’m not betting against Cabrera yet. His power ceiling is certainly lower, but I envision his 2015 season where he hit .338. His average won’t end up that high, but he’s been such an all time hitter for so long, I think some time to get healthy is all he needs. Don’t overdraft him, but in the 8^th or 9^th round, he seems like a value.

Rhys Hoskins PHI (HR, D)- Hoskins burst on to the scene and launched 18 homers in just 170 At Bats last year, which is the second or third most impressive rate last year (we’ll get to another very soon). People are clamoring about him being the future of power at the position and talking bout him being the next mega star. Sure, he could be, but are we not going to cite his .135 average and less than .200 slugging for the last 16 games of the year? You might say it was a small sample size, but he only played 50 games, so we’re talking 1/3rd of hi major league time. Everything about Hoskins in small, including his average potential. I’m not saying to run away, but even with OF eligibility, he’s not worth a top 50 pick. That’s cray cray. (OF)

Matt Carpenter STL (OB) – Carpenter’s two selling points are his positional versatility and his on base skills. Both of those were still on display last year, but his average fell off a cliff. Hitting only .241 hurt his overall game. But that doesn’t take away from all his did – 91 runs, a .384 OPB in line with his career, and 23 homers. If his average rebounds to .270, there’s a .400 OBP in play, and that will lead to more RBIs. Don’t forget Carpenter on draft day, especially considering his versatility. He is currently struggling with a back injury, and may not be ready for Opening Day. He doesn’t seem too concerned so I’m not either. At least not yet. (2B, 3B)

Power Packed tier

Matt Olson OAK (HR, D) – If you like Rhys Hoskins, shouldn’t you love Matt Olson? While Hoskins put up an impressive 18 homers in 50 games, Olson hit 24 of them in 59 games. It’s completely unsustainable, but the power potential is real. With a full season, Olson could hit 40 homers, though his RBI and run totals may disappoint on Oakland’s lineup. His biggest risk is while he does walk, he profiles as a .240 hitter. The strikeouts are too high for a great average. In OBP leagues, this might not matter. As a pure power play, you won’t find a better value short of Chris Davis, and he might hit .100. I think Olson’s a great upside pick. Nothings guaranteed, but the A’s produce home run hitters despite having an awful park for power. Go figure. (OF)

Joey Gallo TEX (HR, OB, D) – Did anybody feel that breeze? Oh, sorry, it was Joey Gallo striking out again. Gallo might have the worst contact skills in the majors. It shows in his .209 average. But when he makes contact, it goes a long way. Out of Gallo’s 94 hits, 41 were homers. He also walks at an impressive rate; he has to in order to survive. In OBP leagues, you might not notice the average drain. His strikeouts scare me more than anyone else in the league, but he could easily lead the majors in home runs. If you’re lacking power and/or can cover a bad average, Gallo makes a lot of sense. He’s not for every team though. (3B, OF)

Justin Bour MIA (OB, HR) – Now, I liked Bour a lot more when he had a full team around him, but he’s a good hitter. Not only does he draw walks but he hits for elite power too. He was already on his way to a breakout list year but he got hurt. Now, there’s a little talent in front of him, so I don’t think his RBI totals will fall off too much. His runs might, but those are sitution anyway. If you like the hitter, don’t worry about the supporting cast. I do like the hitter. And Hell, the Marlins might trade him too. Maybe Bour will go to Coors. Who knows? Assuming that doesn’t happen, he’s still very useful.

Miguel Sano (OB, HR, D, IR) – Everybody raves about Sano power, but I’m more concerned about his injury history. Every time it looks like Sano is ready to give us that 40+ Home run season, he gets injured. He’s averaged 115 games in his two full MLB seasons and has yet to top 30 homers. Now, that’s a matter of time. Sano crushes the ball when he makes contact, but he loves swinging and missing. He loves it. His strikeout rate leaves the potential to bottom out his average, but he walks at a decent rate to compensate. Still, the injury history and the strikeouts worry me, though I respect the upside. (3B)

 

Dice Roll tier

Ian Desmond COL (S) – Desmond’s wrist injury last year was a death sentence. The worst injury a power hitter can suffer is a wrist one. Even when the wrist heals, there’s still a long recovering period to revive the strength in it. This means the pop in a big bat won’t exist for a few months after being diagnosed “healthy”. This is likely why Desmond hit seven homers in 339 at bats. Everything else is in line. There’s no reason Desmond won’t bounce back. I also don’t see why Desomond isn’t being talked about as Coloado’s starting first baseman. I mean, that’s why they signed him, right? Don’t forget about his speed – Desmond chips in 20 steals, a passable average and hopefully power. The bounce back is real. (OF)

Ryan Zimmerman (IR) – How the hell did that happened? Zimmerman looked to be on his way out of the MLB, and then he exploded to a .303/.358/.573 line in 2017, hitting 36 homers and driving in 108 runs. Similar to Justin Smoak and Logan Morrison, he hit more homers than the previous two years combined. Part of this boom was health. Zimmerman rarely makes it through 100 games clean. Another big factor was luck. Everything seemed to fall in line for Zimmerman, but I don’t think anyone can count on him to stay healthy this year. Expect a sharp decline in his stats, and roughly 80 games played. Zimmerman feels like a trap and I’ll avoid him unless it’s for a steep, steep discount.

Carlos Santana PHI (OB, D) – The deal with Santana is pretty well-known. He’s a poor contact hitter, but he’s a master of the strike zone. Santana’s value spikes in OBP league where his elite walk rate plays. In standard leagues, he’s more of a middling option. Santana’s average has been .259 in the past couple of seasons, so he actually did progress there. Still, I wouldn’t count on that average, which is neutral at best, as his baseline. Santana’s power has fluctuated the past few years, but I assume it’ll be around 25 this year. He’s fine, but not a starting 1B. He can fill a UTIL or a corner infield spot well. (OF)

Justin Smoak TOR (D, IR) – In the juiced ball era, Smoak feasted. In roughly the same at bats as in 2015-2016, Smoak hit 6 more homers, scored 8 more runs, drove in 3 less runs ad added 50 points on batting average. It was a career year for the player. Remember, never pay for the career year. A .270 – 38-90-85 line would play anywhere, but he was hitting sub .230 with less than 20 home runs before this season… and he was still on Toronto. I don’t buy a repeat.

An average play tier

 

Josh Bell PIT – Bell had a good rookie season, though he wasn’t what he was projected to do. Bell was expected to hit for a .280 average with low power. Instead, he hit 28 home runs, but only at a .255 clip. His other metrics seem right in line, so he may have tried to hit homers instead of using his natural swing. There’s a relevant player here, though he’s far from a starter at this point.

Marwin Gonzales HOU – The Astros’ swiss army knife earned five positions of eligibility and a career year in 2017. He hit .303, popped 23 homers and drove in 90 runs. He even stole a few bases to boot. I don’t think we’ll see the same production. Even with this versatility, he still seems like a super sub at best. He might claw his way to 400 at bats, but that’s not guaranteed. Secondly, and probably most importantly, it’s unlikely he repeats his performance. The breakout at 29 years old seems questionable. If he hits like last year, he’ll force himself into an everyday role, but this is a team too deep to assume that he’ll have regular at bats if he regresses at all. Let someone else draft based on last year’s numbers and eligibility. (2B, SS, 3B, OF… No Really)

Yuri Gurrell HOU (A) – Gurrell is an underrated hitter that should provide close to a .300 average and decent counting stats for where you can get him. The problem is he’s a three category player, and even in the Astros’ potent lineup, two of those categories are middling. You can’t be sure of his playing time since the team is so deep, and His 3% walk rate is, well, shit. He doesn’t strike out much at all though He’s not a bad add for a UTIL option if you need some average help, or for points leagues, but otherwise, you’ll be disappointed. Also, remember he will likely miss the start of the season due to injury and will also be suspended five games for his racial gesture during the world series. Not the best fantasy clubhouse guy, but average remains nice

Trey Mancini BAL – Mancini is another example of a rookie who had a very impressive debut, but since he wasn’t Aaron Judge, nobody cares. He was a four category contributor and will have a change to improve on his production. In many ways, he’s a lot like teammate Adam Jones. Both provide four category contribution, and both fail to walk at all. The difference is Mancini could be on the rise, and Jones is on the decline. Normally, you want upside, but we don’t fully know who Mancini is yet, and he wasn’t a top flight prospect. He has 1B eligibility as well, though you should have better at the position. (OF)

Late Game Power tier

Greg Bird NYY (HR, D) – Bird’s biggest asset could be his lineup position. There’s a chance he’ll bat in the heart of the order featuring Judge, Stanton and Sanchez. While Bird seems like a good hitter, he’d be the one pitchers will attack. That means he should get pitches to hit. Lineup construction is overrated, but with those mashers around him, his RBI and run total should be high. My concern with Bird is that we’ve never seen it for a full season. He’s shown flashes, but not full on consistency. There’s risk here in batting average too. I think Bird could be a Utility asset, but I don’t see him rising too far in the ranks.

Eric Thames MIL (HR, D) – Coming back to America after pretending to be Babe Ruth for three years in Korea, Thames started off on fire and cooled off considerably. His end line doesn’t look bad, and he certainly kept his patience from Korea, but he was very inconsistent. There’s 30 homer pop in his bat, especially at Miller Park, but don’t expect him to play everyday. Thames is likely in a platoon, but on the strong side at least. In daily leagues, he’s a strong play at home, or against Cincinnati, as he feasted on Reds pitching. Then again, who didn’t? I like Thames, but without the option for daily moves, he’s tough to count on. (OF)

Logan Morrison MIN (D, IR) – I did a double take and thought I read Justin’s Smoak stat line for Morrison. There’s eerily similar.

Here’s another guy I’m doubting. After hitting 31 homers in 2015-2016 combined, Morrison hit 38 of them is less at bats. Even in his career year, he only hit .246. that’s not going to get it done. He does walk, but didn’t get signed until a week ago. There’s a chance he might not play everyday, though that seems unlikely considering his stat line last season. H might scratch out some value, but it’s rare Morrison gets through a season clean, and I don’t foresee another monster yeah from him.

Stick a fork in them tier

Hanley Ramirez BOS (IR) – Always an injury risk, with the signing of JD Martinez, Ramirez will have to play the field to get At Bats. That should trigger an injury or three very quickly. Hanley’s stats have been all over the place the past few years, so it’s tough to determine what he’s capable of. He could be in the heart of the order for Boston and drive in 90, score 90 runs and hit 25 homers. He could also flame out on 95 uninspired games before succumbing to injuries. I see the potential, but I’m staying away and drafting more reliable players.

Albert Pujols LAA (D, IR) – Pujols was objectively awful last year. He had a sub .300 OBP and didn’t slug .400. For the once best hitter in the game, it’s sad to see how much he’s regressed. But, he did still drive in 100 runs, and he’s one season removed from a 30 homer campaign. The tank has been on empty for a  while now, but Pujols is still collecting a ton of money so don’t expecting him to go away soon. I think he still has some counting stats to provide, but don’t expect anything in average ever again.

Ryan McMahon COL – As of now, it’s unclear who will be the Rockies’ everyday first baseman. If McMahon wins the job, he is absolutely ownabe, especially for every home start. Coors is such a boon to player’s fantasy output, it would be insane not to play him at home. I’m not sure he’s good enough to be used on the road. There’s also a real change that Ian Desmond plays first, or the team brings back Mark Reynolds. This positional battle is one to watch play out in spring training. If McMahon is named the starter, he should be pushed up draft boards. Also interesting – he played second and third last season in the majors. Not saying he’s replacing Arenado but it’s nice to see potential versatility.

Chris Davis BAL (OB, HR, D) – Davis’ one trick doesn’t play as well as it used to. When he hit 45+ homers, it mattered. Power was so down, the poor average didn’t matter. Notice in his best seasons, he hit about .260, a fair average that can play with his power. In his meh seasons, that average plummets. Davis has struggled to push his average over .220 the past two years, and his power doesn’t set himself apart. He does draw walks to his credit, but he’s very bad at contact. He needs to be ranked; the man hit 56 home runs when 30 was a benchmark. You can do better.

Mark Reynolds FA (HR, D) – Reynold’s value is simple. If he re-signs with Colorado, he’s probably a borderline top 12 1B, who should be started at every home start without fear. If he signs elsewhere, remove him from your list and move on. Coors Field is the only thing that gave Reynolds fantasy relevance, and I think that’s confirms by the lack of interest they have on bringing him back. He also struggled mightily in the second half, so maybe Coors won’t save him. Hope McMahon takes the job and don’t fall for the trap of falling in over with a past year’s stat line.

Yonder Alonso CLE – Yeah, they can say all they want about the angle change revolution, I’m not buying into Alonso suddenly being a power hitter. The elite power he showed in the first half of 2017 disappeared in the second, and he looked like his old, won’t get double-digit homer run, self. There’s too many talented hitters here to bother chasing for a career year.

 

1. *On defense, Rizzo will cover 2^nd base in bunting situations. Some umpiring crews (one in particular) sees that Rizzo uses a different glove, and classify this as playing second base – even though it’s only a defensive shift. This really affects fantasy. Rizzo’s numbers at 2^nd fall short of only Altuve. The umpiring crew should be tarred and feathers for allowing this. Tar and feather Joe Madden for over complicating a simple sport too.