Blogging Hood’s 2018 Fantasy Football Preview – Houston and Indianapolis Depth Charts

Every year, thousands of fantasy players win their leagues. Not only do they receive a giant trophy, they also receive a champion’s pay check and the right to mock the rest of their league mates until next season. Few things in life are more rewarding than winning, but even fewer top winning when you’ve done nothing but start virtual players. Truly, it’s the reason many of us get out of bed in the morning.

However, for every winner, there are hundreds of thousands of losers. Some of these poor unfortunate souls finish in second place. Others just miss the playoffs. But a select few come in dead last. These outcasts are mocked by even the next to last place finisher, forced to suffer through unending punishments and shamed to the point of severe confidence loss. There’s a reason you see a bunch of Viagra commercials during the NFL season. That will put those images of people sitting in adjacent tubs outside in a whole new light.  

The 2018 Bloggin Hood Fantasy guide doesn’t look to help the first place winner. No, that’s not the Bloggin Hood way. Instead, we intend to give to the poor(poorly informed) by taking knowledge through tons of research(the rich). Now, who actually did this research? Why me, Bloggin Hood of course. If you don’t trust my work, go ahead suck a rock, or kick lemons. Do it in reverse and see if I care.

The Blogging Hood Fantasy guide is not for the faint of heart. The word count would make George RR Martin blush, mostly because he’s forgotten how to write. This year, we’re not even stopping at one preview. Welcome to Part 1 of the 2018 fantasy guide – Team Previews.

Over the next 16 weekdays, right until the last day in July, we’ll be looking at two NFL depth charts for potential breakouts, busts, and deep names to consider. What we will not be doing in part one is addresses ADP, or any actual rankings. I haven’t looked at any of that stuff yet. At this point in the year, it’s irrelevant. If you’re drafting in July, it means you’re baseball team has probably tanked to 12^th place. It’s way too early to hone in on ADP. We’ll save that for part two.

If you followed the Bloggin Hood Fantasy Baseball guide and find yourself in 12^th place, no refunds.

Without further ado, let’s dissect two team’s depth charts, as per rotoworld.com.

Houston Texans

Now, this is a team that people should be excited about. With a healthy Deshaun Watson, every player on this list becomes a coveted piece of a fantasy team. Whoever ultimately is the featured back should have, at worst, fringe RB 1 status. DeAndre Hopkins could claim the second WR position and be arguably a top five pick. Watson raises everyone’s ceiling to new heights. Of course, this all assumes health and that the last season wasn’t a fluke.

If Watson isn’t 100%, or can’t match last season’s showcase, things become much less exciting. Hopkins becomes the only must have piece and everyone else is just kind of there. Do you know who the backups are in Houston right now? Brandon Weeden and Joe Webb. Do you really want Will Fuller in your lineup with Brandon Weeden behind center? Of course you don’t. If there’s one health report that matters, it’s Watson. Study any statements or press releases from the team. See how he looks in preseason. Watson’s knee could shape the entire landscape of fantasy this season, which is much preferred than hours of debate on Kaepernick’s.

No politics in the comments people. It was a joke.

QBs

DeShaun Watson – Let’s start off by addressing the obvious – you will not get a repeat performance from DeShaun Watson this year. The pace he was on was too great for anyone to maintain, and defenses will catch up to him.

That said, there’s no reason he can’t be a top 3 QB this season. He has weapons which he quickly developed a good rapport with, and DeAndre Hopkins might be the second best pass catcher in the league. The running game is good enough to get by, but the biggest assets he has is his own legs. Not only will he chip in points with his rushing totals, he’ll extend plays for long completions and touchdowns that nobody other than Russell Wilson can pull off. That’s a huge boon to his fantasy stock. As I mentioned above, you need to be leery of the knee, but if it checks out, this is one of the few guys I can see drafting early at QB. The problem is, everyone in your league will want him, so the price will be inflated. Honestly, the best case scenario for the suave player is to hope Watson gets off to a sluggish start, trade for him, and then pray for the explosion. Otherwise, you’ll have to pay too steep a price for the sky high upside, but shaky floor. Shaky like an injured knee ligament, you see. It’s a topical reference.

RBs

Lamar Miller – Do you remember when Miller was in Miami and made a ton of big plays. Everybody clamored for Miller to get more touches, but he never did. He looked quick, elusive and efficient, still carrying fantasy value without even an average starting RB volume. When he signs with Houston, it was going to be his break out and drafters gleefully took him super early. Then we found out why Miller didn’t get all those touches.

Some players aren’t built for a ton of volume, and Miller seems to be an example. Sure, the line play didn’t help him, but Miller became volume dependant for relevance, and the skills quickly eroded under injures. Just two seasons ago, Miller was a hot commodity. Now he’s a slow plodder nobody wants to draft. The NFL is funny that way.

I don’t think Miller is dead yet though, at least until D’Onta Foreman is 100%. With Watson, Miller was actually great in fantasy, mostly due to the way defenses need to scheme for the QB’s sneaks and rollouts. If Miller gets the majority of the work early, he’ll be an asset for a team and should be worth his price. Just don’t expect to rely on him for 16 games. He SHOULD be a backup. But with Bill O Brien, anything is possible.

D’Onta Foreman – Had he been healthy at the end of last year, Foreman would already be the starter on this team and we wouldn’t have had that brief oral history of Lamar Miller. Instead, Foreman suffered an Achilles injury a devastating sports ailment, and may not be ready at the start of the year. Since Foreman is only 22, I don’t think the Achillies will hurt him long term. It might affect his chance at becoming the starter in 2018 though. Still, Foreman is the most explosive back on the roster, and if he can get back to 100%, he’ll be the starter. I think he’s a great stash, especially if he gets any action in the preseason. If he lands on the PUP, look to pick him up in the middle of week 4, right as byes happen and nobody thinks of it.

Alfred Blue – A plodding, uninspiring rusher who’s dependent on volume, the only difference between Blue and Miller is money owed. They’re even the same age. At the end of 2017, Blue actually out touched Miller significantly, and performed much better. Ironically, both backs finished with a 3.7 YPC, though Blue did most of his work late, when Watson wasn’t opening holes with the threat of bootlegs. I guess what I’m saying is if Foreman has a setback, and Miller races up boards, don’t forget about Blue late. He’s basically Lamar Miller at a discount. That’s not a compliment.

WRs

DeAndre Hopkins – Nobody has done more in his career with less than DeAndre Hopkins. I think his down 2016, where he still managed 78 catches, shows how bad Brock Osweiler really was. I mean, he was worth taking a 16 million dollar cap hit for a 2^nd round pick and to cut him. That’s bad. Hopkins can make anyone with a spec of talent look good, and we saw what happened when he got Watson. Nobody was better than him last year.

The only fear with Hopkins is what if Watson is not 100%? He wasn’t nearly as efficient without Watson, though he was force fed the ball. Truthfully, isn’t that the team’s best chance to win? If Hopkins has a game without 10 targets, it better be because he was triple covered on every play, the team was up 20 early, or he was inactive. Otherwise, the coaching staff should be fired, and possibly put on a pike. That’s the only risk with Hopkins. If you get 16 games of Watson, you’ll likely have a top 3 player, and maybe the #1 overall option not just at WR, but anywhere short of QB. He’s that good.

Will Fuller – Most people will write off Fuller’s 2017 as a fluke, and they aren’t completely wrong. Fuller scored 7 TDs on 28 catches. Believe is or not, scoring on 25% of your catches is not sustainable. Honestly Fuller is part of the reason why Watson’s numbers are unsustainable. But why can’t Fuller improve his game overall? With defenses having to shade Hopkin’s way, why couldn’t he have a bunch more catches, even if his depth per target go down?  His big play threat opens things up for this offense, and there’s no one else’s capable of doing so. I definitely view Fuller as a WR3 if everyone is healthy. Just don’t expect more 2 catch 85 yards, 2 TD games.

TEs

I can see a TE emerging from this team, but I have no idea which it’ll be. I guess the odds on favorite is Ryan Griffin, but at this point, who knows? This is a position to watch camp for, as there is no slot receiver/3^rd option in the passing game. Even the running backs aren’t elite receivers, so a TE to move the chains would be huge for the offense, potentially start able every week.

Indianapolis Colts

Remember the old LeBron James led Cavs? No, not the recent ones who lost to the Warriors 4 straight finals if you don’t factor in the league stepping in and helping LBJ out. I mean the classic Cavs. You know the ones – where LeBrons best teammates were DeLonte West (Hehe), Larry Hughes, and a man who went by Boobie. While it could be argued LeBron didn’t ascend to the greatest player in the league until the end of his first tenure in Cleveland, he sure didn’t get much help. The rosters were depleted, full of has beens, never weres, and fans who snuck on the bench with customized jerseys. I’m pretty sure that’s how Boobie ended up on the roster. The Colts are basically what happened with LeBron James, except their prized star, Andrew Luck, is nowhere near the player LeBron is. We just give him credit for it.

Seriously, what has Andrew Luck done? I’m not going to argue that he’s untalented – that’s ridiculous. What I am going to argue that we made him into a superstar before he did a thing. What, I already did in a previous blog. Read that instead, give me a comment and then return.

See? Not that good, right?

The Colts never built around Luck the appropriate way, spending high picks on receivers who busted nearly immediately, and never invested in defensive players, or more significantly, an offensive line. All the beatings Luck took after getting his team down 17 points in the first quarter have created serious injury concerns. If healthy, there will be fantasy relevance here. If injured, well, at least you know players to avoid. In case you were wondering who the backup QB, it’s the infamous Jacoby Brissett. I’m not quite sure if that’s a real player or a premium item at the concession stands. Either way, if Brissett is printed on the starting lineup card or the menu, millions of hopes are smoked.

If you didn’t like that line go read ESPN’s preview then.

QBs

Andrew Luck – Make no mistake about my anti Luck stance, if he’s healthy, he’s easily a top 10 option, and even with the awful supporting cast, close to top 5. I’m not blinded by hate. I’m just calling it like I see it. What I don’t see, is any reports saying positive things for Luck. So far, the two biggest reports we’ve gotten are he picked up a couple of children and he’s lightly tossing a football. Firstly, I don’t know who’s kids those were, so for all we know, that story was made up to make Luck look like a humanitarian. Secondly, lightly throwing after sitting out a year is extremely concerning. Remember, Luck was considered on pace to play week 1 last year at this point in 2017. Theoretically, he hasn’t improved at all since. Are we 100% sure he’s playing this year?

The one plus of the uncertainly is you might be able to get Luck late in the draft. If you can, I’d take the risk now at a value. However the closer we get to the start of the season, the less I’m willing to add him. If he doesn’t play week one of the preseason, I will remove him from my rankings. Let it be somebody else’s headache.

RBs

Marlon Mack – Based on his usage last year, Mack doesn’t seem to be a frontrunner in Indy’s plans, though I think talent wise, he has to be the main back. I don’t know if he can carry a full load, but it’s criminal he didn’t get more of a look last year when the Colts bottomed out without Luck. I mean, where they trying to see what Frank Gore could offer them in his age 94 season?

Mack’s high all season was 11 carries, and his high in touches was 14 (happened in the same game). If that’s the ceiling for Mack, he’s undraftable. However, I think there’s some talent here, and if Luck returns, they’ll want to put their best talent out there. They’ll need it. I mean, this is a bad roster. I don’t think the blocking will lead to much but if Mack can secure the pass catching role, he’ll be a valuable fantasy piece as a RB3.

Robert Turbin – Not only is Turbin not really a good running back, he’s also suspended for the first four games of the year. Turbin is the type of back an organization like the Colts would love to use – a plodding, uninspiring back who couldn’t break a tackle for a blank check. That’s because the Colts are a crappy organization, especially when it comes to talent evaluation. The suspension is actually great news for fantasy as some of the young players will get an opportunity to establish themselves. By the time Turbin comes back, a hierarchy should be set, and Turbin will be lucky to be active.

At least that’s my dream. In reality, Turnbin will likely be the starter for week 5. Still, with the suspension and his talent level, I’d much rather take my shot on one of the young backs here.

Nyheim Hines – If there’s one player who’s on this list who ruins the Marlon Mack hype, it’s Hines. Now, the Mack hype train only has about four passengers, but still, you have to feel bad for the foursome.

Hines was a scat back in college, ran a sub 4.4 40 and should be the pass catching back. Mack’s main hope of making a difference was carving out that role for himself in addition to getting carries. If Mack is basically a between the tackles runner, Hines might be the best back to own in Indy. You have to assume it’s his role if he performs at all. The Colts have also talked about using him out of the slot, which is very interesting. Hines seems like a worthy late round flier. There’s no chance of a featured back role, but he has the best skill out of the top four backs listed.

Jordan Wilkins – Probably the longest shot on this list, but he is a rookie who’s going to a team without a declared starter. Wilkins was the second back picked by the Colts this year, but offers a different skill set. He was very productive in his senior year and has size, but reports mark him as a finesse back on a team full of them. That seems to hurt his chances. I can’t completely rule him out, but if I need to take a rookie, Hines seems more likely to have a full time role, even if it is as a complimentary piece. Keep Wilkins’ name in mind though.

You know, there’s not a lot of proven players here. If only there was somebody on the depth chart to show this team the way…. Wait a second, what’s that heroic image in the distance?

CHRISTINE MICHAEL!!!!!! – This is amazing because there’s like one time where my man Michael has a shot to play, and it just happens to be Indy. Here me out.

On this roster, who is the most accomplished Running Back? The answer is Christine Michael.

On this roster, who is the most talented Running Back? The answer is Christine Michael.

It’s clear the backs on the roster can’t put up with being the main option. The best two are more suited for a pass catching role anyway. Why not pair them up with Mr. Michael and watch the touchdowns fly?

Ok, ok, this probably isn’t happening and I doubt he makes the team, but if he gets a snap in a regular season game, I’m counting it as a victory. I mean, somebody needs to carry the rock here, no? #TeamMichael

WRs

T.Y. Hilton – You can throw away T.Y.’s stats from last season, which as a bottom line wasn’t awful considering the circumstances. He was shy of 1,000 yards, but he was getting subpar QB play and, honestly, just bad play all around. The more concerning thing for me is Hilton’s streakiness. He had four monster games, and was a negative in the remaining 12. With Luck, not only do I think there will be more consistency, I think the target share might be elite. Look at the roster around Hilton, and to me, the second best receiving option might be a TE with buttery hands. And I don’t mean that as a compliment. Hilton might have a real shot at 10 targets a game, if not more. How the team is constructed, I wouldn’t rule out 200. That sounds ridiculous, but tell me who the roster stops on defense, and who else Luck can consistency throw to. Luck should have, at minimum 550 attempts. For me, Hilton mgith be a top 5 WR. But, if Luck isn’t health, I’m avoiding at all costs.

Ryan Grant – I thought Ryan Grant had way more catches and yards last year than 45 and 573. It seemed like he was always involved when I was desperately hoping Jameson Crowder could be a good player. Grant will get the opportunity in Indy, as somebody other than TY has to catch passes. Grant had a deal lined up with the Ravens at first, who then quickly backed out, citing an ankle which doesn’t seem to be a problem. I think from what I’ve seen, and the potential opportunity, there could be some value. I really wish he was taller than 6 foot so I can say he’d be the goal line option. He may end up being it by default

Chester Rogers – I have no justification for fantasy value here, other than Rogers is listed as the #2 WR even after the Grant signing. I’d assume Grant would be the #2, but if Rogers gets the role and Luck is healthy, I’ll have interest. Until this shakes itself out, I can’t possibly justify it.

TEs

Eric Ebron – Look, this won’t make me feel good about myself, but I need to be true to the readers. I like Ebron this year. Now before you tar and feature me, hear me out. Ebron has a lot of talent, but awful, awful hands. He lives for the drops like techno music. But, Andrew Luck loves throwing to the tight end, and as you saw me pull straws for value on this roster, Ebron is, without question, the second most accomplished offensive weapon. I can understand shying away, but this could be a solid year for Ebron, though maybe other people buy the hype. I see him as a mid range TE 1 who doesn’t just rely on TDs. He’s dropped them anyway. Too bad he can’t use stick em.

Speaking of, let the tar and feathering begin.