Bloggin Hood’s 2018 Fantasy Football Preview – New England and New Orleans Depth Charts

Every year, thousands of fantasy players win their leagues. Not only do they receive a giant trophy, they also receive a champion’s pay check and the right to mock the rest of their league mates until next season. Few things in life are more rewarding than winning, but even fewer top winning when you’ve done nothing but start virtual players. Truly, it’s the reason many of us get out of bed in the morning.

However, for every winner, there are hundreds of thousands of losers. Some of these poor unfortunate souls finish in second place. Others just miss the playoffs. But a select few come in dead last. These outcasts are mocked by even the next to last place finisher, forced to suffer through unending punishments and shamed to the point of severe confidence loss. There’s a reason you see a bunch of Viagra commercials during the NFL season. That will put those images of people sitting in adjacent tubs outside in a whole new light.  

The 2018 Bloggin Hood Fantasy guide doesn’t look to help the first place winner. No, that’s not the Bloggin Hood way. Instead, we intend to give to the poor(poorly informed) by taking knowledge through tons of research(the rich). Now, who actually did this research? Why me, Bloggin Hood of course. If you don’t trust my work, go ahead suck a rock, or kick lemons. Do it in reverse and see if I care.

The Blogging Hood Fantasy guide is not for the faint of heart. The word count would make George RR Martin blush, mostly because he’s forgotten how to write. This year, we’re not even stopping at one preview. Welcome to Part 1 of the 2018 fantasy guide – Team Previews.

Over the next 16 weekdays, right until the last day in July, we’ll be looking at two NFL depth charts for potential breakouts, busts, and deep names to consider. What we will not be doing in part one is addresses ADP, or any actual rankings. I haven’t looked at any of that stuff yet. At this point in the year, it’s irrelevant. If you’re drafting in July, it means you’re baseball team has probably tanked to 12^th place. It’s way too early to hone in on ADP. We’ll save that for part two.

If you followed the Bloggin Hood Fantasy Baseball guide and find yourself in 12^th place, no refunds.

Without further ado, let’s dissect two team’s depth charts, as per rotoworld.com.

New England

Man, the only people happier than me after the results of the Super Bowl were Philly fans, and I mean, are they really people? This is the fan base that booed Santa Claus. So really, congratulations to me on the Super Bowl.

With a clear advantage at QB, the Pats managed to lose to Nick Foles. Nick Foles! I mean, this was a guy hanging on in the NFL by a thread. Part of that was being under Jeff Fisher for a few years. Anybody would hate football after that. The Pats loss was glorious, but then again, it was a loss in the Super Bowl. It wasn’t exactly a terrible season.

The Patriots actually started showing some cracks in their impenetrable armor in the off season. There was some grumblings about the relationship between Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Rob Gronkowski considered retirement. Probably the most hysterical was Julian Edelman, a member of TB12 was caught with performance enhancing drugs. Why isn’t there a test being done on Brady right now, huh? It’s a conspiracy. Check the deflated footballs for crying out loud.

Unfortunately, most of the drama was overblown, as expected, and the Pats look to be an offensive juggernaut again. Perhaps they will lose a step, but whenever you doubt this team, they go out and win 14 games. I don’t think they’re as good as they have been in the past, but they still have a lot of weapons, starting with their over 40 year old, avocado based QB.

QBs

Tom Brady – If you look at Brady’s numbers, you won’t see any regression, and for the most part, this is true. However, there’s a disturbing trend the past 4 seasons that needs to be addressed. Brady does not play well in December anymore. You know, the most important weeks of the season. From weeks 13-17, he had a 6:5 TD/INT ratio, and that was boosted by a 2 TD, 0 pick game against the pathetic New York Jets. His yardage totals were around 250, which isn’t bad, but it’s not good. Maybe the ratio doesn’t sound bad, but consider that he only threw 3 picks for the rest of the year.

I’m not saying Brady isn’t draftable, and he’s been his usual self for the first 12 weeks of the year. But for his price, he’s not a guy you want to plug and play at the end of the year, which is bizarre considering how clutch he’s been during his career. Maybe its fatigue. Maybe it’s the fact he only eats like 7 things. Perhaps protein is important for a professional athlete. Whatever it is, keep it in mind. Brady’s unquestionably a top 5 QB and he might get your team into the playoffs, but if trends are to be followed, he’s not winning you one.

Also, he’s 40. Regression comes for everyone. Be careful.

RBs

Sony Michel – In a baffling, not Patriots move, the team selected Michel with their first pick. Typically, New England trades down and acquires a ton of picks, but using one for a running back of all things turns heads. Many pundits think this means Belichick must really like Michel and see him as the fill in for Dion Lewis. I’m sure  Belichick likes Michel, but I don’t think he’s plugging into the role. Firstly, Michel never really caught a ton of passes in college, and though he may be capable, it needs to be proven. Secondly, and more importantly, he fumbles. Like a lot. If Michel can’t hold on to the ball, he’ll be benched. With how quickly players get rotated in and out of this backfield, I think there’s too much risk associated with Michel. He could be useful, but I’d rather have a safer option.

James White – Part of Michel’s cap is that White is the best receiving back on the Pats. While he definitely was used last year, I expected slightly more impact. Whites 56 receptions were in line with his 2016, but he only carried the ball 43 times. Reports indicate the Pats want less specialization in their backs, which either means more carries for White, or less time on the field. I think it’s probably the latter. In obvious passing downs he’ll remain on the field, but not for much else. He’s a late target in PPR leagues only.

Rex Burkhead – While Burkhead didn’t play all that much in 2017, he seems like an all around back that fits the Pats’ wish for less specialization, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry and had 30 catches. The biggest problem was he only touched the ball 94 time. This backfield appears to be a three-headed monster which would work itself out perfectly if Burkhead took a backseat. Since it’s the Pats, he’ll probably be the most involved player. If you have to take a Pats back, Burkhead should cost the least, so he has that going for him. He also may be the goal line back, but I’d expect it to be Michel until he fumbles in the third game of the year.

WRs

Julian Edelman – The suspension really is a bummer for fantasy owners as Edelman was a constant source of PPR points and a high volume player. Honestly though, he was a little overrated in other formats, especially ones when points weren’t given per catch. Still, as the second most important option in the Pats offense, this will sting a bit. I don’t think Edelman will miss a beat in week 5. Honestly, he’s too important to Belichick’s offense to be benched or punished so he’s still valuable, but I can’t draft a guy missing 4 games until I know I’m fairly set WR. I wouldn’t take him before round 7, and that’s only if I’m great elsewhere. My assumption is that’s too late to own him, but we’ll see.

Chris Hogan –  This one pains me because I was ready to write a critical “Don’t draft Hogan” angle. However looking at the numbers, I think you certainly should draft him. Also, Don’t Draft Hogan sounds like the old Jingle for “Don’t Wake Daddy”, the board game from the 90s.

If you remove week 1 and week 14, where he only had 1 catch, Hogan was basically a WR1. He scored 5 TDs from weeks 2-5, and had at least 4 catches in every game, but another 1 catch wonder against the stifling Jets defense. Hogan averages a shade under 13 yards a catch, after averaging a shade under 18 the year before, so he serves as the Patriots deep threat. The team lacks any sort of outside presence, so I actually think Hogan’s role is safe. This really hurts the potential sleeper hype I was about to give the following two players. Ah well. I think you can treat Hogan like a WR3 and hope other people only remember the injury and thinking he was not an essential piece to the offense. When Edelman out early, he might start out on fire.

Jordan Matthews – So the Buffalo experiment didn’t work out. I think we can all agree that. Matthews is a slot receiver with really questionable hands – not the combination you want to see. However, Edelman’s 4 game suspension makes things interesting for September. The slot is a very lucrative position for a Tom Brady led offense, and though Gronk and Hogan could see more of these over the middle targets during the opening 4 games, Matthews offers the opportunity to not worry about shifting roles and still get production. This is a player with 3 seasons above 800 yards and he was just 3 yards shy of 1,000 in 2015. He’s a good player. A late round flier for a rental piece isn’t so bad.

Malcom Mitchell – I was really hoping that Chris Hogan’s numbers looked worse so I could have jumped all in on a Mitchell sleeper hype train.

Mitchell came on at the end of his rookie season and the playoffs and looked like an asset. The Patriots were desperate for an outside receiver, and Mitchell looked the part. But then, a knee injury derailed any hope for building on his rookie year and he sat out all of 2017. Apparently, the knee is still bothering him. He could still be the #2 WR, and he could excel in the role, but until there’s a clean bill of health, we have to pass.

TEs

Rob Gronkowski – The retirement rumors are scary. There’s a good chance Gronk wanted to go retire to captain his own cruise line, or maybe to join the WWE as the next champion. However he did return, and his performance last year was in line with his entire career. Gronk caught 69 passes, because of course he did, for 1,084 and 8 scores. You’d take that any time you can get it, but honestly, the TDs were a little low. That could spike up. Then, consider he did it in 14 games. That’s the deal with Gronk – you know he’s missing games, but if you can get 14, you have the best TE who’s basically a low end WR 1. As long as he doesn’t retire mid-season, he’s worth a second round pick again, like every year.

 

New Orleans Saints

This isn’t your father’s New Orleans Saints team. No, that team was run by Archie Manning and many of the fans wore bags over their heads. They made the Cleveland Browns look like a reasonably well run franchise. The fact that Archie Manning’s sons were looked at as promising prospects really shows how saddled the poor guy was. At least the fans already had a doggie bag for when they left with a giant Po Boy and a Holiday 3 pack.

This also isn’t that Saints as you’ve grown accustomed to under Drew Brees and Sean Payton. Gone are the days of 35 points a game, shootouts every week, and no defensive players for miles. Sure, they’re still in a dome and the offense is still high powered, but the team gets things done a completely different way. Instead of an aerial strike, this year’s Saints are most likely to run teams over, led by Alvin Kamara. The team also is solid defensively, so there’s no need to air out the ball as much. It’s kind of sad to think we can no longer happily stream against the Saints for all our fantasy points any more.

Ah well, we still have the AFC East.

QBs

Drew Brees – For over a decade, few players have been more set and forget great in fantasy as Brees. He consistently found himself at the top of the QB list, off setting his somewhat high INT numbers with sheer attempts, yardage and TDs. In fact, it was the massive attempts that led to the INTs as his percentage wasn’t that out of line with other top QBs. I never thought Brees was quite on the level of a Manning, Brady or Rodgers because so many of his yards came from short passes to the backs. Yes, it’s a testament to take what defenses give you, but its also a way to rack up yards instead of actually, you know running. Look, the man has 5 career 5,000 yard seasons, so he’s doing something right.

However, last year marked the end of the pass happy Saints. Brees “only” threw for 4,334 yards and 23 TDs. In fact, his attempts, still at 536 were down over a 100 passes on his average for the past 7 seasons. Give this man Tommy John, STAT. He was actually more efficient, topping 8 yards per attempt for the first time since 2011, and only the second time he had less than 10 picks in a full season. Brees is by no means done but he’s at best a mid level  QB 1, and he’s probably closer to a streamer. The downward trend of attempts and improved overall team removes the burden from Brees. He can still play, but he’ll go far too high from name value.

RBs

Mark Ingram – Ingram has been a very good running back for the past few years, but it always seemed like the Saints hated him. They never really gave him the ball as much as his talent called for, and as he evolved his game to catch passes, he still didn’t feel like a true Bell Cow Back. Last year, Ingram had 58 catches, 1,500 total yards and 12 TDs. That’s a monster season. And then, he starts this year suspended for four games.

That’s a complete bummer. Who knows how the Saints will punish him now. Ingram still has value, but you can’t draft him until the 9^th round. Then, when you factor in the Saints bye, you’re really only picking him for the back-end of the year. There’s a chance he doesn’t work back into significant playing time. Based on last year’s numbers, I think the Saints would be crazy to not play him on his return, but there’s a chance. Draft as a reserve. When he returns, you’ll feel like you picked up a top 10 back. In fact, you just might have.

Alvin Kamara – So with Ingram’s suspension, Karama should be a top 5 back, right? Well, yes and no, Kamara’s workload will definitely increase, and with his skill set, he might be the top back for the first four weeks. However, consider how incredibly efficient he was last season and the amount of big plays he made, and Kamara’s realistic ceiling has to come down. It’s impossible to match his incredible totals. When you combine these two concepts, you meet in the middle – which still is a top five back. That was a wasted paragraph, wasn’t it?

Kamara seems like the ideal #6 pick and while he won’t get all the carries when Ingram comes back, he’ll still be heavily involved. He might get a bit higher of the workload share, but this offense is built for two backs to produce.

Now in the meantime, who will split work with Kamara. Well, what about an old familiar name?

Tim Hightower – Because would you shocked? I mean, would you really?

But yeah, don’t actually draft Hightower.

Terrance West – This is likely the guy who will end up taking a chunk on the Ingram role. Yes, they do have the talented Jonathan Williams, but his head isn’t exactly screwed on straight. West is a decent running back, while nothing special, he should be able to handle a few carries a game. I don’t think he’s anything more than a spell back for Kamara, whose going to run wild for the first four weeks.

WRs

Michael Thomas – I know that Michael Thomas is probably ranked well by experts, but I don’t think people realize how good he is. Is it because he only scored 5 TDs? Or is it because he’s steady and not explosive. Here’s an interesting stat, last year, Thomas only had 2 games with less than 5 catches. One of those was a 4 catch 66 yard game, which isn’t even that bad. He churned out 6, 7, 8 catch games that made him a PPR maven. What’s better for Thomas is that even in a reduced passing offense, he still increased all his numbers, minus the TDs. He’s guaranteed the lion share of the targets, and is a fringe top 5 WR. I wouldn’t see any issue taking him at the turn. He’s basically Keenan Allen with a better QB and less weapons around. Please America, continue to hate on him. I’ll happily take him.

Ted Ginn – For all the mocking Ginn has taken over the years, he lasted a decade in the NFL, and has settled in as a 750 yard deep threat. On the Saints of yesteryear (yesterseason?), Ginn would be a more exciting prospect. Now, I don’t see him more as filler. Sure, 750 yards will play, but it’s not a reliable 750. You know Ginn will have a few monster games, and a bunch of duds. Last year, you’d have only wanted to play him 4 times. No, Ginn is best suited as a waiver wire pickup to cover byes and not much else. There’s a lot worse receivers out there, but I’m drafting in the 10^th round of later, I want more upside than a player who’s maxing out at 800 yards.

Cameron Meredith – Meredith is coming off an ACL tear, so it’s a good idea to temper expectations, but he did impress me back in 2016, putting up 888 yards on an awful Bears team coached by John Fox. Firstly, 888 yards on the nose is awesome. Secondly, producing under John Fox is equally impressive. I would expect Sean Payton could get the most out of Meredith, assuming health. He should be the #2 WR on the team by October. Keep him in mind as a late round sleeper.

TEs

The TE position was always fruitful for fantasy, but with this reduction of pass attempts, I’m not buying in. Maybe this will change by August, but for now, skip on by this spot.