Andrew Luck is Overrated or I’m Breaking the Hearts of Pawnee’s Citizens

Just a season ago, the NFL was experiencing a quarterback renaissance. There were the old guard who did not appear to be slowing down. The new era QBs all made strides to entrench themselves as franchise saviors. A few quarterbacks burst on the scene, raising expectations for themselves and their teams. It looks as though more than half the NFL rosters had a long-term solution at the position. It addition many others franchises had promising prospects who could make the leap. The Jets and Browns were nowhere near this discussion.

Fast forward to the week of the AFC and NFC championship games and you would think you were following a different league. The Quarterback play league wide took a significant spike downward. Sure, several players made leaps in their play, but plenty of young QBs we expected to be in the elite discussion not only stopped progressing, they fell up of a cliff. If you look at this season’s playoff bracket, you’re going to see more names that deserve to be holding clipboards than start. Here’s the ones many will question:

Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor, Alex Smith, Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Case Keenum, Nick Foles, Blake Bortes, Jared Goff and I don’t want to forget Blake Bortles.

This is not a murderous row of QBs. Hell, with respect to Case Keenum’s season, you could argue that Brian Hoyer, now Brady’s backup is the second best QB left in the postseason. This does not bode well for those who hate New England franchises (Everyone outside of New England).

What happened to all the ascending talents? At the most important position not just to football, but all sports, quarterbacks are struggling at an alarming rate. Now, there are a few arguments that can justify the down year.

1). Elevation – Some of the players on this playoff list have turned the corner. Previous busts broke out in a big way, and while it remains to be seen if it’s permanent, their franchises won’t be looking for a QB after the season.* Say what you will about Case Keenum, but he threw one of the most exciting passes in the history of the NFL. He did not play well on Sunday – I think he threw more passes off his back foot than not – but he deserves credit for having a great season.  Jared Goff solved his issues, AKA having Jeff Fisher as his coach, and soared with a new, innovative system playing to his strengths. He looked worthy of being the #1 overall selection and the Rams have lofty 2018 expectations.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t trust either guy in a big spot at all yet. I mean, I’d be having nightmares of Keenum’s “fadeaway” throwing motion, but these players definitely elevated their teams. In a year of shaky QB play, they weren’t the problem.

2). Injuries – Health is always going to be a part of football. However, it was especially brutal toward the position this year. Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota, who both had meteoric rises last season, played on a recovered broken leg in 2017.  These players will always be linked since both suffered the identical injury on the same day (freaky). In my research, historical evidence suggests it take a full season to recover from a broken leg, so let’s hope their downright bad seasons were a result of not being fully recovered and not failed promise.

Jameis Winston had a shoulder injury that lingered all season, but it doesn’t excuse his decision-making. His injuries and poor play was a significant reason why the Bucs were one of the biggest disappointments this year. Hope you didn’t have a big bet on their win total.** Dak Prescott looked lost after injuries hit him and his offensive line. Honestly, he looked outmatched when he didn’t have a running game to hide behind. I’m most worried about him,*** but again, hopefully an off-season brings him back to 2016 levels.

I don’t need to bring up Aaron Rodger’s collarbone injury. This seemed like a year for the Packers to make a run in an underwhelming NFC, but it was not to be. For a franchise that wins 12 games a year, they’ve had some bad luck. Carson Wentz’ injury is why Nick Foles in on the playoff list. Wentz was probably the league MVP and looked to be a breakout star. These two injuries destroyed the NFC playoffs.

Obviously there’s one more injury elephant in the room, but we’ll get there in a few hundred words.

That’s seven guys we were counting on who either didn’t play, or sucked due to being hindered. Perhaps a few of the QBs who sucked used injuries as an excuse. Either way, when ¼ of the league’s projected starters are hurt, the product suffers. This doesn’t include horrendous showings from veterans like Andy “Ginger Cannon” Dalton, Joe “Bert” Flacco, Eli “the other” Manning, and Matt “I can’t beat teams with a winning record” Stafford.**** It’s like the league caught a contagious suck virus and it spread like the plague. I assume Geno Smith was patient zero.

This is why Kirk Cousins, a slightly above average QB who loves turning the ball over, will become one of, if not the, highest paid quarterback in NFL history. Listen, Cousins is fine, but he’s not a Super Bowl caliber signal caller unless every other aspect of the team is flawless. But when he’s compared to Bortles or Stafford, he looks like a future hall of famer. You cannot win in the NFL without a good QB. People will pay Cousins like he’s the answer when it’s unlikely he is.

Unless you’re the Jags. If you’re the Jags, I don’t care what you have to pay him, but you pay him that amount, plus a dollar. You offer Cousins team equity, or a yacht full of cash. If he’s into strippers and blow, get him a stripper and blow warehouse. Just make sure you aren’t starting Bortles next year. This is worth more intrinsic value to the fans than Nickel Beer night would be.

By the way, did you know Blake Bortes now has more AFC Championship appearances than Carr, Mariota, Winston, Stafford and Dalton combined. So, that’s fun for those five franchises.

Going into 2018, I think there’s only 12 QBs teams can feel confident about. I’m going to tier them very quickly. I am leaving off a few decent QBs such as Goff, because I’m not completely trusting them as of yet. Please, if you disagree, let me know in the comments. All I ask is you be civil.

I know you’re not going to be civil. It’s fine.

 

Top of the Hill QBs Tier

Aaron Rodgers

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

I Feel Good on my QB Tier:

Russell Wilson

Ben Roethlisberger (On the field at least…)

Carson Wentz (Respect the rightful NFL MVP)

Andrew Luck

Above Average and We Can’t Do Better Tier:

Philip Rivers

Matt Ryan

Cam Newton

The next two are DeShaun Watson and Jimmy Garropolo. These two look to be stars but I want to see more from them. Half a season does not make a superstar, but after next year, I imagine I’m taking either over Ryan, Newton and maybe Rivers. That would put them just below Andrew Luck.

I guess it’s time to talk about the big goofy elephant in the room now.

Most people are probably surprised and maybe even angry he’s only ranked seventh for me. Obviously, I’ll try to justify it but I don’t know how much justification I really need. I feel like all the Luck apologists need to win me over ahead. I don’t see you writing a column about it? Maybe not so sure about your hero, are you? Hmm? HMM!?

Sorry, I got a little too much in character there.

Sure, if you want to move him ahead of Big Ben, I could see it. Big Ben has sucked on the road for years now. But that’s as far as I’m willing to go. He is, at best, the sixth best QB in the league. That’s still really good. I’m not trying to argue the guy is a bust. However, he’s talked about like a proven, winning QB. The facts show that he is not. I believe if Luck wasn’t hyped since he was in Stanford as the next great thing, we’ve view him in the Stafford, Rivers, Ryan class instead of an elite. There’s a chance I’ve ranked him too high. For this article, drop your perception of Luck and look at the facts. Maybe I’m too low on him. Or maybe, just maybe, we’ve all been brainwashed that hype equals skill.

Statistics

Let’s start with Luck’s career numbers. His only elite season was 2014, where he appeared to be breaking out and living up to the lofty expectations. I cannot bash that season at all. His 2016 was pretty good as well. Both of these seasons saw him eclipse 30 TDs and 4,000 passing yards. But how much do these stats mean? This season, nine players topped 4,000 yards, and had Jared Goff played in week 17, it would have been an even 10. TD passes can be fluky, and Luck has only topped 25 of them in his two best seasons. If we gave him 27 TDs, that would put him again around the eight QB. Seems to be right around where he ranks at the position.

Luck’s completion percentage is a serious issue. For his career, he is sub 60%, at 59.2%. Now, I will concede he throws the ball down the field more than the average QB, but that shouldn’t lead to numbers this low. Had he played this year and passed at his career average, his percentage would have been 28^th in the league, behind Mitchel “Don’t call me Mitch” Trubisky. He’d basically be tied with Cam Newton, a QB who is oft criticized for his suspect accuracy. Why then, does Luck get a pass when Newton, a star in his own right, does not? Newton also throws deep more than average, but nobody wants to defend him*****. Luck’s teams have always had decent rushing attacks, so his offenses have had balance. To me, he gets a pass (pun so intended) because of his name and not from his play.

Finally, Luck has an issue with turnovers. In his first few seasons, he was throwing them at a pretty high rate, including 12 INTs in his seven games in 2015. For his career, he averages an INT on 2.6% of his throws. Doing some impressive math, that would be 15-16 INTs if he passed 600 times, a fair estimate for a 16 game season. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt, like everyone in the media, and say he throws 15. That would be tied for third in the league, worse than professional turnover artists Jay Culter and Blake Bortles. Would Luck have thrown more passes than these flunkies with my projections? Yes, but at the same time, he’s supposed to be the elite one. Instead, he’s throwing picks at the same rate as the dregs of the league.

Success

Luck has been given the title as a winner, and I don’t understand who gave him the honor. During the regular season, Luck has been credited with 18 game winning drives and 14 fourth quarter comebacks. These are all well and good, but you know what would be better? Not having to come back. Nobody, and I mean nobody, gets down in games faster than Luck. He starts plenty of games trailing by multiple scores, and usually the blame falls on him. Luck is a huge fan of the opening drive interception, and never seems to have a groove early. Seriously, watch some Colt replays and you’ll see they always fall behind and have to throw to get back in the game. This is why projecting 600 attempts for Luck may be conservative.

Many of Luck’s comeback wins are a combination of stat compiling on teams playing a prevent defense and poor coaching on the opposite side. NFL coaches do not understand that leads are not insurmountable. Once a team has a two score league, they play ultra conservative, even if it’s the second quarter. It’s as though they haven’t watched a Sports center highlight before.  Instead of criticizing the coaches, the media praises Luck’s poise for leading his team to a come from behind victory. Can’t we blame him for being down three scores to bad teams and escaping with the win? The Colts have come back in these games because the opponent takes their feet off the gas pedal.

Did that metaphor make me sound like an analyst? I feel like analysts use bad metaphors like that.

Luck also receives a lot of credit for winning the division and making the postseason. Winning a division with a 9-7 record isn’t something to write home about. The AFC South had been terrible when the Colts did win. The Texans didn’t have a QB to go with their defense, and won strictly by shutting down teams. The Titans were a joke and the Jaguars were the Southern Browns until this season. If Luck, the only QB in the division with any skill, lost the division, that would have been a bigger deal. With DeShaun Watson returning next year, I expect the Texans to run away with the AFC South. Take that for what you will.

Finally, the playoff success he had? This was really just in one season. Yes, we all know he came back from 28 points down against the Chiefs, but you know what, the Chiefs not only lost star players as they surmounted this lead, but Andy Reid was the coach. I already wrote a full blog about this. If Reid can find a way to lose, then damn it, he will. In the next round, Luck matched up against Peyton Manning, another football guy who loves choking away playoff games. Luck defeated the two biggest chokers of the modern era. We’re rewarding him for that? Yeah, the comeback was impressive, but this is what got made people proclaim he was elite. Settle down. He was just in the right part of the bracket.

Injuries

I’m not going to blame Luck for getting hurt, but at some point, it has to factor into your evaluation of a player. Luck missed a chunk of the 2015 season, and the information about his injury was vague. Then in 2017, Luck was reported lock to play week one, then he was going to miss the first few weeks, until he was placed on IR for the season. Now, the reports show he’ll be on track to play in 2018. I mean, he better be. While the injuries are not his fault, they can sap his potential. Honestly, we don’t even know what kind of shape his body is in. He’s taken a ton of hits in his career and maybe this injury is more serious than we know. It’s not his first serious ailment of his career. I expect Luck to play week one of 2018, but I don’t think anybody can say its a lock at this point

Rebuttal

I’m going to try to beat the commenters to the punch as there is a counter argument to all I’ve said. The most obvious is the Colts organization has done him no favors. The organization has missed on many first round picks, and instead of addressing the poor offensive line or joke of a defense, they have selected WR after WR in the first round. Following the draft manifesto of Matt Millen is not the way to run a franchise. Luck hasn’t developed any of these receivers into a star, which could be partly he fault, but I don’t think the Colts regime knows how to develop players. An improved draft strategy could have put Luck in a much better spot to succeed.

I think a more competent organization would have addressed his injuries better. I believe Luck played hurt in 2015, and only stopped because the pain was too great. No competent team would have misdiagnosed their franchise player so poorly, and I think most would have gotten him healthy to play at some point in 2017. We can’t know what kind of physical damage the Colts did to Luck, but I believe they need to take some heat.

Finally, the owner is a buffoon.

He’s a drunk, drug using buffoon who proves his idiocy every time he opens his mouth. He was the one proclaiming Luck’s was fine all off-season. It’s a shame owners can’t be held accountable. Chuck Pagano, the team’s head coach, who was fired at the end of the regular season, was clearly outmatched as a head coach. The owner needed to step in, make a change, and get a coach who could develop Luck. Kyle Shanahan could have been the Colts’ coach. You know, the Qb guru who made Matt Ryan look elite for 18 and 3/4th of a season. Instead, Shanahan went to San Francisco, where he’s going to turn Garoppolo into Joe Montata 2.0. Pagano stuck around for too long, stunted Luck’s growth, and stood idle while nobody could solve his injures. The Colts front office has gotten a pass for the Luck era for seemingly no reason. They should be at the bottom of any ownership ranking. Granted, it’s significantly better than the Mets and Jets, but you get the idea.

Yet, I still blame Luck more than any other factor. Look at Aaron Rodgers. He is saddled with a bad coach, a secretly poor front office and a mediocre team around him. The Packers saw how good Rodgers was and barely tinkered with the roster. They never signed free agents, and focused their team building through the draft, where they missed on picks somewhat regularly. However, Rodgers was so good, he elevated the roster. Look at what happened this year without him? They should have lost to the Browns. One man shouldn’t have to put the franchise on his back,****** but Rodgers rose to such a level, the average fan thought the team was good. That’s probably Rodgers’ best accomplishment – making Mike McCarthy look competent. Luck has not done this, and while the expectations are unfair, to be a true elite, you need to find this level. Until he does, Luck will never be a top-tier QB.

Again, I don’t think Luck is a bad QB. He’s safely in the top 10, and there’s evidence that he can become one of the best at the position. We’ve only seen it in spurts. He’s got ways to go to reach the Rodgers, Brees and Brady tier, and with the way the past few years have gone, I don’t think he’ll get there. I think a team can win a super bowl with Luck, but the Colts will need an overhaul to get there. Hopefully the right coach will take the job and have him reach his potential. Remember, potential and pedigree don’t equal greatness. The taking heads covering the NFL don’t know this. Don’t be as dumb as those guys.

I’m looking at you, Irvin.

This article was edited to correct the misspelling of Case Keenum’s name and that Jared Goff was the #1 pick and not the #2.

*This excludes Minnesota, where Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford are all free agents. You figure they’ll retain at least one of these guys, but Keenun will cost money and the other two are injury prone. Tough sledding for them. They better win the Super Bowl this year in front of the home crowd to ease the pain of the next few seasons. I’m sure this storybook ending won’t end in tragedy. The Vikings never lose in heartbreak.

**For those gambling fans, I will make a ton of betting references in these columns. I’m not actually a big gambler myself, but I respect the hustle. I’m looking out for you. But no, I won’t invest 30% in some action.

***You already know where to send your hate mail Cowboys fans. That’s right, directly to Jerry Jones!

****Matt Stafford cost me fantasy championships on two separate occasions. Once, he needed to score a mere five points and only got three. Two years ago, he failed to score the nine points I needed. Therefore, I will never be rational about him. If you think he’s good, that’s your opinion. Your incredibly wrong, stupid opinion. Stafford sucks eggs. Like a lot of them.

*****Is it because of the stolen Crab Legs? Or because he was sexist to a reporter? Is it his fashion? I might have answered my own questions.

******Greg Jennings also did this one in a memorable video about Madden. What a virtual warrior.