2018 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Preview or These are the Major Leaguers?

We’ll start this write up discussing fantasy football, the sport I tried to get you all to forget about yesterday. Trust me, it’ll all make sense. Maybe. Ehh, I guess we’ll see.

Probably the worst position for Fantasy Football is Tight End. You’re unfortunately required to play one. If you squint, you will find talent at the position, so there is a glimmer of hope. However, the talent is extremely top heavy and few players can produce at a wide receiver level. Typically, most of a fantasy Tight End’s value is tied to touchdowns. Without a score, you might only receive two or three points from the position, even in Points Per Reception Leagues. That’s only three points more than me or you. You could have easily started popular Bloggin Hood Commenter Will Karlet Malone and only sacrificed a few points. You would get plenty of priceless life lessons though. That’s how fantasy championships of the heart are won.

The only Tight End that’s worth a high draft pick is Gronk. When the Pats decide to unleash him, Gronk is particularly unstoppable. He’s a size miss match for every corner, and a speed miss match for most linebackers and safeties. The only thing that’s ever held Gronk back is injury. This has greatly affected how the Pats use him. Typically they hold him back, saving him for the moments that mattered. Defenses seem to always target Gronk’s knees, and he’s a breathing concussion waiting to happen. Rumors have circulated that he plans on retiring and may enter the WWE. When Wrestling is a move to prolong your athletic career and improve your health, that’s a problem.

There’s been other useful TEs worthy of a high draft pick, notably Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzales. If you took them in the first five rounds, you weren’t disappointed. The issue became the players who weren’t as talented. Most drafters panic when a position run occurs. If several teams take a TE, weak-minded players believe they need to follow the leader. Typically by round six and seven of every draft, a TE run occurs where 50 catch, 520 yard producers get selected over starting running backs, productive WRs, and hell, even upside plays at the skill positions. This is why you never play follow the leader. I mean, you could have drafted the next Christine Michael*¹.

The adventures involved sitting on benches and getting cut a lot. They weren’t all that adventurous. A truly misleading title.

There’s no justification to draft based on positional scarcity if there’s no production. If you’re grabbing the last elite TE? Sure, I can understand it. But every year after the top two or three guys are taken off the board, seven or eight mediocre options quickly follow. After the elites, most TEs are identical, needing scores to be streamable, let alone worthy of a roster spot.

Catcher is like Tight End, but significantly worse. There’s one superstar, a couple of middling options, and then a lot of shit. Imagine a dog park after a busy day. The remains in that park? That’s fantasy catchers. Don’t make a face. Be glad I didn’t use the dog park analogy for the intro.

Outside of Gary Sanchez, there’s no reason to draft a catcher in the top 100 picks. You may not want to take one until the 200^th pick. The catchers who have some skill have to high of cost tied to their iffy production. In addition, the catchers who aren’t ranked in the top five or so aren’t worth more than a last round pick. In a one catcher league you don’t have to worry about reaching because there’s like sixteen catchers who are identical. If you don’t get Sanchez, wait. Then keep waiting. You can bolster your roster elsewhere, stabilizing other positions and grabbing players with actual upside. Remember, this sport’s Christine Michael is waiting for you if you look hard enough.

You could also draft productive players who won’t disappoint you. You know, whatever you’re into.

And now, before we get to the tiers, its time for a few questions on the catcher position

Where is the talent drop off?

Truthfully, it’s Sanchez. Even the second wave of catchers who are head and shoulders above the pack had gaping flaws. Sanchez is the real deal. He’ll hit for power, have a solid average, and the runs and RBIs should lead all catchers. The real question is where to draft him.  I think it’s fine to take him around the 2-3 turn, typically picks 19-22, or 23-26 depending on if you’re in a 10 or 12 team league. I would anticipate you’ll have somebody in each league who likes Sanchez more and will nab him in the middle of the second. I wouldn’t go that high, but he’s a legit top 25 player. You can’t say that about any other catcher. You can’t say that about any catcher over the past five seasons.

Ok, fine. Where is the second drop off if you’re going to be so literal?

I would argue after Perez on my list, who I ranked as the fifth catcher. This means at least half of your league will have a sub standard catcher. Does that mean you should grab one of the five? I’d say no. The reason being is this hitters are flawed. Posey doesn’t provide any power. Wilson Contreras and Salvador Perez are fine, but their ceilings aren’t that high and that don’t produce much as the other players around them. JT Realmuto is playing on a deserted ghost team and might drive in seven players all season. And these are the top five catchers! If they fall very, very late, like the 18^th round late, I think then you can snag them. But at their current ADP, the only player I could see is Posey if you need average. If you play in an on base percentage league, Posey actually makes sense. But in standard leagues, don’t do it.

Are catchers really this bad?

Yes, yes they are. Remember, Catchers get a lot of rest, so they won’t produce gaudy stats unless they are one of the team’s best hitters. Most starting catchers get roughly 400 at bats, sometimes less. So, you’re already starting with a low opportunities for stats. Of course, most catchers aren’t their teams best hitters so they bat in the bottom third of the order. Most catchers hit about .250-.260, though the fewer plate appearances mean the average won’t hurt you as much.

What should I look at for a catcher?

Your best play at catcher is to find counting stats and hope they provide a decent amount. Some catchers you can get relatively late will offer solid power, so try to add about 20 HRs to your totals late. This should provide you about 100 combined runs and rbis, with the potential for more. Hope for a passable average, but a lot of the muscle at catcher could hit less than their body weight. Fortunately, most are a bit chunky. Get your catcher in the last three rounds, no earlier. If you can at until the last round, that’s even better. I think you can, unless people inexplicably take two catchers. If that happens, you might want to pull the trigger a little early.

Which catchers should surprise?

Austin Barnes – Barnes seems like a star in the making, with a great average, OBP, and decent pop. The biggest problem is his playing time, but if he gets the majority of the starts, he’d crack my top five. He could also sneak in some starts at second, his natural position, which makes his value better, not for the positional eligibility, but for extra at bats.

Evan Gattis may spend a lot of time at DH, but the team is stacked so I’m not sure he gets enough at bats. If he does, watch out. There’s potential for 30 home runs without an atrocious average. The cost won’t be outrageous but you’d have to draft him in the teen rounds.

Which Catchers will disappoint?

Yadiar Molina will continue to be drafted higher than he should base on name recognition. He’s a good catcher, but his power fluctuates each year and at 35, the bat could fall off a cliff. I don’t mind having him, but somebody will draft him earlier than I’d like to.

Mike Zunino – As a pure power pay, I can see it, but he might hit .200. If doesn’t matter how many at bats he has, that will hurt your average. Zunino will need to mash about 30 homers to have value, and with his history, I’m not sure he plays enough in the majors to do it. The downside isn’t the bench, its AAA.

Any Valuable Prospects?

Francisco Mejia – He might win a batting title someday. The Indians like his bat so much, they had him try learning third base. This means we have a serious bat on our hands. It’ll be tough for significant time, but if he makes the majors as a catcher, he’s a must add.

Jorge Alfaro – I’m not anticipating big things from Alfaro this year. The future may be bright but his minor league numbers are meh. Prove it to me first, and then I’ll be more interested.

Rankings

To assist with the ranks, I’ve made a guide for each position. While the symbols will the same for all positions, the requirements will be different. For catcher, the requirements are to be an average hitter. Few qualified.

A – An Average of .270 or above

OB – On Base Percentage of over .340 or an OBP significantly improving on the batter’s average.

HR – More than 20 Home Runs, or a slugging percentage above .450.

S – More than 5 stolen bases

D – The potential to have an average below .240 or an .OBP below .310

IR – The player is likely to miss time due to injury.

Gary Sanchez Tier

Gary Sanchez NYY (A, OB, HR) – Huh, that’s surprising. It’s kind of silly that I even have to explain why I have him ranked first. Sanchez would probably be a top 30 or so pick even if he didn’t play catcher, kind of like Gronk in football (unless he does retire). In 122 games, Sanchez hit .278 with 33 homers, 90 RBIs, 79 runs and slugged .531. The scariest part about this is he might only be the 3rd most dangerous hitter in the Yankee lineup. That’s frigging depressing. I don’t know if his average or homers will go up much from last season, but the counting stats should raise. You don’t draft Sanchez because he’s a catcher. You draft him because he’s really good. The clear class of the position, you’ll probably have to reach a tad for all the position scarcity nuts, but he’s a wonderful addition at the 2-3 turn.

The Best of the Rest Tier

Buster Posey SF (A, OB) – In most leagues, Posey is overrated. He’s a much better real life player than fantasy player. Most of his power is gone, and he’s closer to Dee Gordon than Gary Sanchez, minus the valuable steals. That said, he’s still useful in fantasy, and excels OBP leagues, where he’ll flirt with .400. The counting stats should rebound with an improved lineup and he’ll play first base enough for his ratios to matter. The biggest issue with Posey is he’ll go too early to get any value. What’s the difference between Posey and Casar Hernandez for fantasy? Position eligibility, and a few counting stats. You could even argue that Hernandez’s steals make him more valuable. Keep that in mind when drafting. Posey’s is a double digit round pick that’ll go in the eight. I throw all this shade, and he’s still the #2 catcher on my board. It’s not a big accomplishment.

Wilson Contreras CHC (A, HR, OB) – Contreras’ biggest problem in the past was playing time. The Cubs were deep at catcher, and Contreras wouldn’t play as much as he should have. At a position were sitting is commonplace, this is a problem. He is clearly the man behind the dish in Chicago now, and he can hit. You can expect a .275 average, 20-23 HRs and solid RBI production out of Contreras, but don’t expect elite production. He’s a top three catcher, but he doesn’t belong anywhere near the top 100 picks. He’ll probably cost that, and to me, that’s not a value.

JT Realmuto MIA (A, S) – Last season, Realmuto sold out a bit for power. His average of .278 wasn’t terrible, but it wasn’t the .300 he hit in 2016. With the dip in average came six extra home runs. Fantasy players don’t want this trade off. Realmuto’s value is hitting for a good average, something only he, Sanchez and Posey can offer. The modest home run boost doesn’t even things out. Realmuto also chips in at steals, providing somewhere in the 7-12 range. That’s more valuable than the 17 homers he hit. Hope Realmuto levels off his swing again. The counting stat may struggle – the talent on the Marlins were all traded away with no shame, but he’s a solid player.

Salvador Perez KC (HR, D) – The calling card to Perez’s fantasy success was showing up. He’s a good player, but his constant 140+ games behind the plate was a leg up on the competition, although ironically pretty terrible for the legs. It might be catching up to him as he missed time with an injury. Still, he played in 129 games, extremely high for a catcher. He had his best power season, drove in 80 runs and slugged nearly .500. While his average usually won’t hurt you, it doesn’t help given his amount of at bats and his horrific plate discipline. Perez is one of the least likely players to draw a walk, and it shows. He hasn’t reached an OBP above .300 in the past 3 years. The average could fall off the face of the earth but otherwise, this is a sold, if overrated, catcher.

Some Actual Hope Tier

Wilson Ramos TB (IR) – Here’s the positives with Ramos – he hit .260 with 11 home runs in just 64 games as he recovered from injury. He will bat in the heart of the order for Rays, and he has a hitting pedigree that shows he’s capable of good production. The problems with Ramos is that he’s had plenty of disappointing seasons, and he’s as injury prone as Samuel Jackson in Unbreakable. The park isn’t great, but the talent is still there. Ramos won’t cost much to acquire, and he was a big sleeper in 2017. Maybe in the post hype haze, he’ll be the surprise catcher of the year. I’m semi banking on it. He’s a guy I’d target. If it doesn’t work out, you can pick up one of the remaining mediocre options. Trust me, there’s plenty.

Austin Barnes LAD (A, OB, S) – I think Barnes might be the real deal. Last year, the sample size was small, but his production was in line with his minor league totals -.289/.408/.486. That’s an elite hitter, let alone a catcher. He provides decent power and even a few steals. Honestly, the only reason I have Barnes this low is because the Dodgers have Yasmani Grandal, who’s also an above average catcher. The playing time could be dicey. Considering the Dodgers played Barnes almost exclusively in the postseason, I think he gets the lion share of the playing time. He also played over 20 games at second in 2017, which seems weird, but if the Dodgers are willing to do that, take the extra playing time. If he gets to 400 ABs, he’s a top 5 catcher. If not, he’ll still be useful. Catcher is still really bad.

Evan Gattis HOU (HR, D) – When Gattis was named the Astros primary DH this year, fantasy pundits were excited. Having a catcher who doesn’t actually catch is a huge deal. One person on CBS ranked Gattis 19th overall, meaning not just at catcher. It was an embarrassment to everyone involved. Now, reports are backing off Gattis’ playing everyday, and the Astros have too much time to offer significant ABs to one player. This doesn’t factor in that Gattis only hit eight homers in 300 At Bats last year, a very low number from the power hitter. Part of the issue was his injuries likely sapped power. I anticipate a better home run rate. The playing time is questionable, but Gattis can product as a part timer. Plus, he’ll have to catch some days. Consider him a mid-tier option. Just, please, don’t draft him in the 2nd round.

Name Brands Can Suck Tier

Yadier Molina STL (A) – Let’s start with the 18 home runs. Stop it. That’s not happening again unless the juiced balls are just tennis balls painted white. Molina hit 12 homers the previous two years combined, and his game has never been power. Everything else should hold up for at least this season. You know you’ll get a solid average and decent counting stats from Molina, at least for a catcher. He’ll bat in the middle of the order, so 75 RBIs are in play. Remember, he’s 35, so the wheels can fall off whenever, but I think we have a couple of years left before it gets depressing. He’s still a solid hitter. THis rank is mostly about where he gets to hit in the lineup though. If he drops so, let’s say, seventh, don’t bother.

Yasmani Grandal LAD (OB, HR, D) – If Grandal was on another team, he’s be higher in the ranks. Instead, he’s a fringe starter, as Barnes and Grandal split reps like two elite running backs. Grandal’s power is legit. He’s typically good for 20 HRs if he approaches 400 at bats. He also draws a ton of walks, useful in OBP leagues. This also helps to offset his typical abysmal average – less at bats means the bad average has a lower effect on your team’s total. Remember, a walk doesn’t count as an official at bat. Note his walks were down last year, but I expect that to reverse to his normal rates this season.  He loses a little juice in average league, factored into the rank, and it seems the Dodgers will lean toward Barnes for playing time. Still Grandal has value, and if he is traded, it will open up more.

Mike Zunino SEA (HR, D) – Zunino strikes out at alarming rate. Way over a third of the time at bat. It’s a huge concern that he’ll probably struggle to make it over .240 last year. I don’t fully buy the breakout last year because he won’t stop swinging and missing. However, he had real time power. With a full season, he’ll hit 30 home runs easy. The problem is his struggles at the dish might get him yanked around the lineup. He’s ranked as a top ten option on most sites because of the upside, but a sub .200 average is in play. He does walk, so OBP league players will have, what a .275 floor? That’s… that’s not good either.

The Power Gamble Tier

Wellington Castillo CWS – Big Beef had a productive year in Baltimore and has now increased his average for three consecutive seasons. The power has already been there, but I think it’s partially because he’s played in great offensive environments. Not to break the trend, Castillo signed with Chicago and should be a good bet for 20 homers. The White Sox have sneaky amounts of offensive talent, so his counting stats may rise a little. Don’t bank on a .282 average again though. He’s topping at .260 without a lot of luck.

Robinson Chirinos TEX (D)– For most of his career, Chirinos showed solid power, but always in a backup role. 2017 was his first opportunity at extended time as the lead catcher, and he did pretty well, hitting 17 HRs in 263 At Bats. He’s not lighting the world on fire with his average, but he walks enough to avoid ruining your team’s… too much. Playing in Texas should lead to a decent amount of homers. He could be a value at the position, but people might reach on his stat line last year. It’s still a small sample size, but then again, his career has been a small sample size. A decent flier for pop. Remember though, he’s already 33 years old.

Brian McCann HOU (HR, D) – McCann is like slightly worse Evan Gattis. It’s fitting the two are teammates. There’s some power in McCann’s bat, but it’s down to around 20 HRs per season. His numbers are beginning to regress, which makes sense as he is 34 years old. Despite injuries, he still caught 95 games, and presumably will be the primary catcher for the Astros. It’s a loaded lineup and while Gattis should catch some, I don’t think McCann loses scheduled playing time. Still usable, McCann is one of, if not the, most boring catcher to own. Congratulations.

Disappointing Veterans tier

Jonathan Lucroy OAK (A) – If you believe in the even year theory, then get ready for a monster Lucroy season. Arguably the best catcher in 2016, Lucroy failed to do anything in 2017, matching his 2015 season. He had a middling average, low power, and no counting stats. He did this splitting his year in Texas and Colorado, two of the best offensive parks, so he has no excuse. There’s a chance for improvement, but don’t pay for 2016. He just signed with the A’s to be their starting catcher, but that just confirms there’s no reasonable hope of a power rebound. Now, he seems like empty average and little else. Remember, empty catcher average is like .260. He’s a safety net of catchers fly off the board early, and I wouldn’t be thrilled to start him in 10 team leagues.

Russell Martin TOR (D) – I like more upside in my catchers. Sure, the position is filled with old, broken down players who couldn’t cut it at other positions. But at least those broken down players can hit .250. Martin is settled into that .230 range, and is some bad luck away from .200. His power his decreased the past few years, and while you can cite his injuries, he’s a 35 year old catcher. It comes with the territory. I don’t think Martin will be bad, but plenty of guys can put up his line. I’d rather take a shot on more upside than settle, especially at such a weak position.

Chris Iannetta COL (D) – The plus for Iannetta is he’s going to Colorado, a great move for any offensive player. The bad news is Iannetta once played for Colorado and wasn’t very good. He is coming off a decent year, assisted by pre-humidor Arizona, but even in Coors, I don’t have a lot of faith in Iannetta. Somebody in your league will take the leap of faith because of the park, but his numbers are uninspiring. There’s a solid chance he doesn’t hit his weight.

Fresh Blood Tier

Francisco Mejia CLE – A huge, huge hitting prospect. The Indians like his bat so much, they had him play some third base in the hopes of calling him to the majors sooner than later. This did not go well. He’s only 22, but he’s close to the majors. The biggest problem is the Indians already have two catchers. While neither provide much in the way of offense, they’re defensively sound, and the Indians put up enough runs as is. If he’s hitting though, I don’t see the Indians keeping him down forever. They want to win now. Keep a watch on him and pounce when he gets the call.

Tucker Barnhart CIN (A) – Originally, I had Barnyard way too high because of a mediocre slash line. Mediocre is the new excellence at Catcher.

With Devin Mesoraco turning into Where’s Waldo, Barnhart became the Reds primary catcher. Old Barnyard will provide a passable average, but no real power. I wouldn’t count on ten homers. He also may chip in a handful of steals, which is a nice bonus, but even at a weak position, you should shoot higher. In two catcher leagues, he’s a good second catcher target.

Dregs of the League Tier

Matt Wieters WAS (D) – Remember what a sure thing Wieters was supposed to be? Yeah, neither do I after all the rough seasons. Even in a potent Nationals lineup, Wieters did little but have an unimpressive average, provide middling counting stats, and suck. There’s no longer upside here. Now, picking Wieters is basically saying you give up. He’s no more than a second catcher when required. Don’t pick based on name value. There’s none left.

James McCann DET – Younger McCann provides a slightly more balances profile than the elder. However, that profile isn’t very good for fantasy. McCann offers teen power, about a .250 average and has yet to score 40 runs in a season. That barely moves the needle to first gear. He is the unquestioned Tigers starting catcher for the first time, but it shouldn’t lead to more playing time. Also, who’s really in the lineup? Possibly washed up Miguel Cabrera? Definitely washed up Victor Martinez? In a two catcher league, he’s fine, but in standard, pass.

Travis d’Arnaud NYM (IR) – This is almost silly to write about because he’s going to be hurt. Over the past few years, his average has slipped, his OBP has barely reached .300 and he’s not young anymore. The time for d’Arnaud to become a superstar has likely past. I think he’d still be useful if he was healthy, but last year was as healthy as he can be, and it was rather meh, especially with the .244 average. He was even in a competition for Kevin Plawecki for playing time. That’s not good for anyone outside the Plawecki household. There’s similar options available with cleaner injury histories.

Jorge Alfaro PHI (D) – I’m not seeing a lot to be excited about here. His 2017 minor league stats were pretty bad – a .241 average and a sub .300 OBP with 7 HRs in 84 games doesn’t scream breakout. His September call up looks good on the surface, but he had a .420 BABIP, which is about as sustainable as a one hit wonder. He should get playing time, but he doesn’t strike me as a super star. There’s growing pains to come.

 

1. *Michael was one of my annual fantasy running back sleepers. He had the full physical package but must have either been a headcase or never tried. Occasionally, it would look like he would break out, and then, he just disappeared from the team. The best Christine Michael story was from 2016. Michael became the Seahawks starting running back and was an elite fantasy producer for the month of October. He was cut before the end of November, without any real explanation. His performance was fine. He then went to the Packers and played decent for them in a playoff game. The next game? Michael only played special teams. Other then me drafting him for four straight years, holding him on my bench and hoping, I think his biggest contribution is the picture.