2018 Blogging Hood Fantasy Football Preview – Tennessee and Washington Depth Charts (Bonus – High Profile Free Agents)

Every year, thousands of fantasy players win their leagues. Not only do they receive a giant trophy, they also receive a champion’s pay check and the right to mock the rest of their league mates until next season. Few things in life are more rewarding than winning, but even fewer top winning when you’ve done nothing but start virtual players. Truly, it’s the reason many of us get out of bed in the morning.

However, for every winner, there are hundreds of thousands of losers. Some of these poor unfortunate souls finish in second place. Others just miss the playoffs. But a select few come in dead last. These outcasts are mocked by even the next to last place finisher, forced to suffer through unending punishments and shamed to the point of severe confidence loss. There’s a reason you see a bunch of Viagra commercials during the NFL season. That will put those images of people sitting in adjacent tubs outside in a whole new light.  

The 2018 Bloggin Hood Fantasy guide doesn’t look to help the first place winner. No, that’s not the Bloggin Hood way. Instead, we intend to give to the poor(poorly informed) by taking knowledge through tons of research(the rich). Now, who actually did this research? Why me, Bloggin Hood of course. If you don’t trust my work, go ahead suck a rock, or kick lemons. Do it in reverse and see if I care.

The Blogging Hood Fantasy guide is not for the faint of heart. The word count would make George RR Martin blush, mostly because he’s forgotten how to write. This year, we’re not even stopping at one preview. Welcome to Part 1 of the 2018 fantasy guide – Team Previews.

Over the next 16 weekdays, right until the last day in July, we’ll be looking at two NFL depth charts for potential breakouts, busts, and deep names to consider. What we will not be doing in part one is addresses ADP, or any actual rankings. I haven’t looked at any of that stuff yet. At this point in the year, it’s irrelevant. If you’re drafting in July, it means you’re baseball team has probably tanked to 12^th place. It’s way too early to hone in on ADP. We’ll save that for part two.

If you followed the Bloggin Hood Fantasy Baseball guide and find yourself in 12^th place, no refunds.

Without further ado, let’s dissect two team’s depth charts, as per rotoworld.com.

Tennessee Titans

 

TEN – How many times am I going to play the “Jeff Fisher” Angle in this preview series? Well, considering this is our last depth chart preview, just this once. But seriously, it fits. I swear.

We gave a lot of props to the Bears for potentially being the new Rams, but what about the Titans, a team many pundits had hope for coming into 2017. The Titans actually won a playoff game (Thanks Andy Reid!), but boy were they awful to watch. The offense was fresh out of the 1948, featuring various runs into the line and predictable passing plays. Also hampering the team was Marcus Mariota’s injury – Not only was he recovering from a broken leg, he dealt with hamstring issues through the year.

Fortunately, the old regime is gone. Mike Mularkey is a lot of things, but a good football coach wasn’t one of them. Instead of using his dynamic QB to his strengths, he turned around and handed the ball off repeatedly. This year’s attack should be much more exciting and imaginative. Hopefully the Titans are actually watchable now.

The team is filled with interesting, if not exceptional pieces, and have several candidates to break out, including their QB who’s already been named like 18 times.

QBs

Marcus Mariota – I give a pass to Mariota’s 2017, just like I gave one to Derek Carr. The bigger difference here is Mariota managed to get injured again during the season, hampering his mobility. While he isn’t a scrambler on the level of Cam Newton or Deshaun Watson, Mariota can tally on yards with his legs, a boon to any QBs points. If he can manage 400 yards rushing, a realistic number, there’s a solid baseline here.

I also like the increased weapons. Dion Lewis should help out the passing attack and if the pundits are correct, Corey Davis might be the best receiver in the NFL of all time. That’s usually helpful. Consider that Mariota has never had an INT problem until last year, and his career high attempts are only 453. If the attempts increase and the TD to INT ratio normalizes, I think he’s a top 12 fantasy QB. It’s on the low end, but he’s practically free in drafts so that’s still a profit. He’s a QB I plan on targeting.

RBs

Derrick Henry – Henry was one of fantasy’s favorite what ifs. All he needed was DeMarco Murray to get out of Dodge, and the backfield would be his. We got a preview of what a Henry lead backfield would look like last season when he got nearly 50% of the work and I got to say, I was underwhelmed.

Sure, he averaged 4.2, but that was boosted by a few big runs. I know we can’t just throw those away, but he was very mediocre without it. He also can’t really catch, only compiling 24 receptions in 2 seasons This matters. In today’s NFL, the lack of receiving talent hampers a player’s ceiling. He will likely be the goal line back, but that assumes he cashed in his opportunities there. Henry might have more value in standard leagues, but any players in leagues rewarding receptions will be disappointed. He’ll need 10TDs to return value. Unless he’s slipping rapidly, I’d avoid him in drafts.

Dion Lewis – Since I don’t like Henry since he can’t catch passes… Well, I’m sure you se where this is going.

If I knew I could get 16 games out of Lewis, I’d take him as my RB 2 in every league and be thrilled. I anticipate him being a key cog in the passing attack, and he’s also an effective runner – he averaged 5.0 yards a carry last year. You might cite he was on the Patriots, but remember, the Titans should be much more creative offensively, and Mariota opens running lanes with the threat of a scramble. If not for the sketchy injury history, I’d be even more bullish. That said, he’s a top 20 back and I anticipate ranking him ahead of Henry. That’s not a sentence I expected to write.

WRs

Corey Davis – This is a rookie coming off an injury filled rookie year where he only caught 34 balls and didn’t lok special at all. On a team begging for a breakout receiver, Davis couldn’t mange to grab the brass rings. Why does everybody like him again?

Oh right, the playoff game where he caught two TDs on the Pats. Wasn’t that a total blowout? Ah well, I’m sure it’s fine.

Everyone needs to cool their Davis love a bit. I certainly expect growth from last season, but people are penciling him in as a top 25 receiver. Is it possible? Sure, of course. But is it likely? I don’t think so. If you want Davis as a high upside WR 3, sure, I can buy it. There’s a lot of targets available in this offense. But you need to have constructed the right team that can deal with a 6^th or 7^th round bust. Davis isn’t for every team. We can’t be sure he’s actually the best receiver on the roster either. One playoff game does not make a superstar. It does make an inflated draft price though.

Rishard Matthews – Nobody respects Rishard Matthews. While he’s not the best receiver, he managed 53 catches and 795 yards on a bad offense where he failed to reach even 90 targets. That’s fairly productive. His biggest failing last year was Touchdowns, but that was team wide. I don’t see Matthews reaching his 2016 heights again, but he’ll be a WR4 and a decent spot start in a plus match up. Remember, just because everyone wants Davis to be a star, it doesn’t mean Matthews won’t be the most valuable weapon on the outside.

Taywan Taylor – A complete shot in the dark mention, but Taylor was also a rookie last year, and while he’s an afterthought in the fantasy community, this isn’t the most daunting WR core in the league. Honestly, the most proven receiving threats or Lewis and Delanie Walker. I absolutely would not draft Taylor. I don’t think I’ll rank him. But just file the name away in case the offense doesn’t click early. Maybe he gets in the mix and makes some plays. He was a third round pick – not exactly a throw away.

TEs

Delanie Walker – Despite being 34, Walker keeps churning out solid 800 yard seasons, and is the top dog in the Titans passing attack. This might shift this year, but I see no reason to avoid Walker unless the draft price is out of control. Due to ageism, Walker often slips in drafts. Plenty on uncreative drafters will make old man jokes referencing his last name. Let them. If you can get a 70 catch, 800 yard TE late in the draft, take the discount. Don’t expect a huge amount of scores, but six seems reasonable. Respect your elders.

Washington Redskins

What a wonderful dumpster fire the Redskins were last year. Firstly, they still have the name controversy. I can’t help but think of the South Park episode where it’s lovely human being Dan Synder who feels persecuted for his franchise’s name leading to angry articles and offended fans. Truly, the only people who deserve to be mad are the franchises’ fan base for how awful the organization has been run.

Remember how badly the team treated RG3 after his ACL year, which was mostly the team’s fault? They ran out there Kirk Cousins any chance they got, and he turned out to be at least serviceable. How did they reward Cousins? By jerking him around (hey now), never really considering a contact extension and getting nothing for him as he left in free agency. Masterful work.

Every single player on this roster regressed. All of the rookies sucked and there’s little hope that this team has a prayer to reach the daunting 6 win total.

Other than that, this team is pretty good.

They did acquire Alex Smith, who isn’t quite the meh QB you think he is, and they brought in a few exciting skill position players. However, at best, we’re looking at two back end starters: and that’s the best case scenario. Pat for the course for the Washington Football Club.

QBs

Alex Smith – I know what you’re thinking. He’s boring. Most years, that label is true. However, last year was Smith’s best season as a pro. He averaged 8 yards an attempt, went over 4,000 yards and kept his INTs low (5 all season). The biggest knock on Smith has always been his risk aversion, but last year he finally took shots. Maybe he stopped caring knowing he was on the way out. Either way, it was encouraging.

Unfortunately, I expect last year to be the outlier. Smith had great weapons last year and they have definitely been downgraded. This isn’t to say the team is devoid of offensive talent, but the Chiefs might be a top 3 offense. If Smith is willing to take shots this year, he could end up being a back end QB1 that nobody wants. He was a top 5 option last year. Imagine that – boring old Alex Smith as an elite option. I wouldn’t draft him as a QB1, but he’s a high end steamer who kicks in points with his legs. Smith is another example on why waiting on QB is preferred.

RBs

Derrius Guice – I’ve come around on Guice after being totally out on him early. Guice was pegged as strictly a two down back, making him a low end RB 2 dependent on TDs. However recent reports have shown his pass catching chops are better than anticipated. This goes against the hands of stone scouting reports. There is no chance that Guice gets all passing down work… until Thompson suffers his yearly injury.

If that were to occur and Guice was unleashed, he could be a top 12 back. That’s not a long shot but you can never count on injuries. Nor should you, you jerk. Consider you’re getting a strong between the tackles runner who can catch a ball or two a game. Remember this was an offensive line projected to be good in 2017 that was devastated by injury. It should be healthy for 2018. And don’t discount Alex Smith’s scrambling ability opening up holes. I would say out of all the players I looked at this pre season, My opinion changed most positively on Guice.

Chris Thompson – Thompson came out on fire in 2017, making huge, unsustainable plays all of September. He was a huge pickup and until he suffered a season ending injury, he was the key man on this team. There’s a receiving role for Thompson but don’t expect anything between the tackles. Also, don’t expect those big plays to return. He’ll make a few, but nobody short of Alvin Kamara does it every week. Thompson’s a good PPR play, a risky standard league play and not a starting option. Don’t fall in love with a hot streak.

Rob Kelley – It seems like a long time ago, but Rob Kelley was the starting back for the Redskins last season. He’s a bit of a plodder, but proved decent enough around the goal line. If the team didn’t draft Guice, I’d have been in on Kelley when everyone and their Grandma would jump on Thompson. Alas, we’re left with a 3rd stringer who’s got little chance for reps without an injury. Kelley can be avoided in all but the deepest formats.

Samaje Perine – Just awful. Perine can’t even pronounce his own name phonetically. What a selfish player.

It was a disaster season for the rookie, who started behind Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson. When injuries got him on the field, he received a full workhorse role and did absolutely nothing. In my opinion, he looked overmatched and burnt a lot of teams, the most important being mine. Nice use of FAAB, Bloggin Hood. He’s the last option on this team and hopefully we don’t see him.

WRs

Josh Doctson –  After two seasons, it hasn’t clicked with Doctson, and I think that’s part of the reason the Redskins brought in a new WR. He has 566 yards in 18 career games, and even when he’s played, he’s been gimpy. Doctson says he’s healthy, but his career arc so far does not earn him a pass due to injuries. At no point did Doctson have a 5 catch game last season, and he was on the field a lot in the teams final 8 contests. I’m not ready to write off Doctson as this is his third year, but if he doesn’t flash this season, I think any hope of fantasy production, and real life relevance, is gone.

Paul Richardson – After a few seasons of tolling away in Seattle, Richardson finally got a chance to play as the team needed to pass, trailing in games regularly for the first time since his arrival. He handled his first opportunity pretty well with 703 receiving yards on only 44 catches. He’s a deep threat the Redskins need, and it makes you wonder if he’ll end up being more decoy or focal point. Smith’s bread and butter has been the safe throws, but after last year, I think there’s some chance that Richardson gets a good target share. Switching teams is never easy, but with all the changes in Washington, he’s not going to a team with established offensive chemistry. I think Richardson will be an up and down WR receiver who could settle in between a 3 and a 4. You won’t have to spend much capital to find out.

Jamison Crowder – I know, I know, he hurt you last year. Trust me, he hurt me too. I was all in on him. But this season, I’m ready to jump right back in on my boy Clam to have his WR 2 season.

Don’t worry, that bad joke will hit you in a few seconds.

Crowder regressed in all major statistics, but really, other than missing a game and catching fewer TDs, he was pretty in line with his 2016. The biggest detriment was his poor start, having a high of 52 yards in his first six games, including an inconceivable -7 receiving day on a line catch. Why would you even catch that pass?

A great deal of the struggles was due to hamstring injuries sustained early. It hobbled Crowder, and was even more detrimental for him than other receivers as his damage is done out of the slot where quick cuts are required. Once Crowder got healthy in week 8, he took off, eclipsing 60 yards in his next 5 games, and while he tailed off again at the end of the season, the Redskins were toxic in December. Still, he was involved enough for 3-5 catches and caught two TDs. Crowder insists he’s 100%, and I’m willing to believe him. Alex Smith may be willing to take shots down field, but in his heart, he likes the safe routes that Crowder runs. He should lead the team in targets and is a WR 2-3 you can probably get as a 4. I like the potential rebound.

TEs

Jordan Reed – Let me give you the positives first. Reed is a force whenever he’s on the field, absorbing large target loads, making plays and scoring TDs. When healthy, he’s always been a focal point of the offense, and as the team doesn’t have a dominant receiver, he could easily lead in targets. Alex Smith has also loved using the TE wherever he’s been (hold that thought for a moment), so Reed could be a value play.

Now, you can’t possibly expect Reed to stay healthy. He’s been ravished by concussions, and is recovering from a toe injury. Reed says he feels 100%, but for this player, that could still be pure agony. He doesn’t remember what healthy feels like. Draft Reed for an upside 8 game TE, and I have no problem with it, but you cannot expect health. Fortunately, the team has a built in option for when Reed’s inevitably placed on IR

Vernon Davis – In Reed’s absence, the aging Davis again filled in admirably, catching 43 passes for 648 yards and 3 TDs. He was miserable down the stretch, but so were all his teammates. If Reed gets hurt, I think Davis becomes a decent, if not boring, TE1. Remember, he’s already played with Alex Smith, and had a couple of huge years with him (I told you to hold that though). I would never draft him, but don’t be shocked if Davis is a top 10 TE.

Unsigned Players

Since we have a few huge free agents, at least huge Q rating free agents, still sitting unsigned as I write this on 7/30, I figured I’d take a shot and give a list of a few teams who can possible sign these players. You can probably guess who I’m talking about, but that’s fine. Remember, I’m taking shots in the dark looking at depth charts. Believe it or not, I’m not a licensed reporter. I’m only licensed to party or partay, depending on the week.

Dez Bryant – Over the past few years, everybody realized Dez can’t be a locked in WR 1 anymore, except Bryant himself. I think he can still be good, but he needs to accept that he’s more of a possession WR2 on a team than an elite, down the field threat. Foot injuries will do that. If he develops into a Larry Fitzgerald type, he’ll have a few good years left. If not, we won’t be hearing the name Dez Bryant again for a while.

Just in the past few days, Dez was in discussion with the Browns, then in responses to the Cowboys saying they wish Bryant shows more leadership, Dez threw every former Cowboy under a bus, backed it up, and then blew it to pieces. Then, Antonio Brown tried to recruit Bryant, saying he doesn’t mind the tirade. Both teams have too many big targets (Yes, even the Browns) that a Dez signing would be horrible for fantasy. Plus, imagine the Steelers locker room with Brown, Bell and Dez? I don’t think either team is a fit and I didn’t even list the Steelers. Here’s my potential choices:

Bills – Mostly because their offensive weapons are so awful, I could see Bryant fitting in as well as a square peg in a round hole. He’s been a miscast WR1 who would probably get cut halfway through the year for being a malcontent. Not ideal.

Pats – This would be fitting, getting a throwback Bryant season on the Pats. However, they have too many options to bring in Bryant, and I don’t see Bryant signing here.

Bengals – The Bengals desperately need help at WR and Bryant is one of the few names they might actually know. They should be rebuilding, but then again, they extended Marvin Lewis, so I can see this happening.

Browns – Only because the Browns have been linked to Bryant. This only makes sense if Josh Gordon is suspended again, which has been aggressively reported as to not happen this year. I say no.

Jaguars – This one actually makes sense, plus it would be hilarious how angry Bryant would be at seeing a Bortles wobble float well over his head to the awaiting defense. He’s an upgrade over Marquise Lee, and the team has young, fast receivers to take the top off the defense. He could be the “WR1” while not really being the WR1, if that makes sense.

Raiders – Because they seem to love old, aging veterans. I don’t think this actually happens.

Redskins – Because they love big names. The Washington Receiving core isn’t that great and Dez would have extra motivation for two games against the Cowboys, but I don’t think this happens.

Packers – This made some sense as the Packers don’t really have a WR 2, but based on how they drafted three WRs, and already declined the rumors, I’m guessing it’s not happening.

Best Fit – Jags

Most Likely Team – No Idea. I think it’ll depend on injuries to a key WR in preseason. Or maybe he’ll go to the Steelers and screw everything up.

Adrian Peterson – When a running back loses his ability, it happens fast. Peterson bounced around New Orleans and Arizona last year, only averaging 3.4 yards per carry. It’s partially age and partially injury, but this is no criticism on an all time back – it’s just the facts. It’s highly doubtful Peterson has any fantasy impact at this point in his career. The bigger concern is if he ruins another back’s value. There’s a few landing spots I see.

Colts –  The Colts love employing running backs past their prime, and with Frank Gore gone to Miami (not for retirement…yet), there’s room for Peterson. This move actually makes some sense – it gives the team a veteran back since Robert Turbin got suspended. This would ruin Marlon Mack hype, if there is any, and I think there’s a high chance of it happening.

Bills – If something were to happen to McCoy, either legally, or more likely league discipline, Peterson might be a good fit here. However, the league usually is very slow to react to these things, so any discipline probably waits till next year, unless McCoy is proven guilty. I doubt the Bills get Peterson, or anyone interesting. Have we discussed their roster? Oh right, we have

Texans – Peterson has mentioned the Texans multiple times and even Lamar Miller said he’s welcome Peterson (to hide his own diminishing skills). The fit is Houston makes a lot of sense, and keeps the seat warm for D’onta Foreman to usurp the throne when healthy.

Cowboys – Remember all the rumors connecting Dallas and AD when Peterson was leaving Minnesota? Sure, he’d be a straight backup, but it could be a decent fit. I doubt Peterson accepts this. If he signs somewhere, he expects to play.

Best Fit – For Peterson, the Colts. For the Teams, the Texans.

Prediction – The Colts are dumb, but I think the Texans add Peterson for a depth play. He might not finish the year on the Texans roster though.

Antonio Gates – It’s rare a 38 year old TE who came off a 300 yard, 3 TD season would generate any interest, but Gates is still a decent goal line option. There’s really only one place he fits though.

Chargers – Surprising, right? With Hunter Henry’s injury, there’s been interest on both sides about Gates’ return for a final season. But, like two shy middle school kids with crushes on each other, both sides have been flakey and not direct. If Gates comes back, he could score 5-6 TDs, but he’s nothing more than a TD dependent player now. The days of his dominance are long gone (2014 was his last great year). He’ll be little more than a bye week fill in.

Prediction – If he doesn’t come back by the end of preseason Week 1, he’s not returning. I’d lean toward yes, he does return, but either way, it doesn’t change draft boards. You can do better than a 38 year old Gates.