2018 Bloggin Hood Fantasy Preview – QB Preview, Tiers, and Ranks

The 2018 Bloggin Hood Positional Previews is our second series of the NFL preseason and sets itself up like a Summer Blockbuster. It features overpaid celebrities, gaping logic holes and little to no satisfactory conclusions. If you expected more than a fluff piece that rehashes on the team previews, you’ve clearly come to the wrong blog.

After reviewing all 32 rosters, and yes, we are counting the Bills as a roster, this merges all the opinions and research into 4 compact lists of players, tiered off from where I see a moderate to severe talent and opportunity gap. Ultimately, this series will end with a complete set of ranks, based on the top 200 or so players. Defenses and kickers are excluded from this exercise. I can barely review and judge a running back… Do you really want me to predict defensive rankings based in interior lineman play? So no, we’ll be sticking with the positions featured in fantasy football, thank you very much.

 

Over the past few years, QB has become both a boon for fantasy players as well as a trap position. In the past, with fewer safe options (Remember, Herm Edwards’ offensive philosophy was respected in this era), QBs seems to either go early, or not at all. Similar to today’s TE position, QBs were a dime a dozen after the initial few. Today’s crop is similar in a way, except instead of having few standouts, most QBs are useable in a given week.

Did you know, last year, the likes of Deshone Kizer, CJ Beathard, Jacoby Brissett and Josh McCown all had weeks where they were a top 12 option? That means they were starting caliber for fantasy at least once during the 2017 season. Sure, you wouldn’t feel good about playing them. Your brain would scream some of the worst obscenities when you plugged them into your lineups. However, this is the biggest difference between fantasy and real football – it doesn’t matter how skilled or how effective the plays are – it just matters what scores fantasy points.

Deshone Kizer in particular is who I’d like to talk about. That’s not a sentence you’ll read often.

As a rookie, Kizer wasn’t very good. Most rookie QBs aren’t very good, but this was a special season. He only completed 53.6% of his passes, threw 22 INTs against 11 TDs. He only managed 6.1 yards per attempt and averaged less than 200 yards passing a game. All of these numbers were at the bottom of the league.

And again, on certain weeks, he was still more than useable.

That’s the key for quarterback – in standard, 12 team leagues, there’s no need to reach for one.  Let the values come to you and trust me, there will be plenty. Let’s use a terrible, inappropriate analogy to further visualize the situation.

Let’s pretend that you are an attractive girl on a dating site. Please, please don’t fall too deeply into the fantasy.

You’ve already set up your profile, added your photos and wrote in your “about me” section that you’re looking for a relationship and not hook ups. The next morning, you come across 200 messages. After deleting the 180 that are only about casual hook ups, you still have 20 to choose from. Should you actually consider all of the proposals, or just on the first one that’s there out of safety? Of course you should look at all the options. Don’t sell yourself short, girl.

And it’s the same thing at QB, except instead of being an attractive girl, you’re likely a middle aged, out of shape bald man drafting from your basement. That’s a fantasy stereotype of course. Some players draft from their bathroom.

Also this analogy doesn’t work because if the girl in our example was messaged by a QB, she should immediately take him up on the offer. That’s financial stability you can’t pass up.

Also also, I think I should have flooded this post with Jimmy G pictures so I got the female fanbase built up. Ah well. Maybe the Christian Michael collage for the RBs will have the same effect.

The point of all this ramble, other than word out of course, is to take your time on QB. You don’t want to grab the first QB off the board. By my count there are 10 QBs I think will probably be a lock and loaded QB 1 all season and another 7 I’m comfortable with to roll into the first few weeks with. There’s a varying degree of comfort with these 7, but after the first 10, I believe you want to shoot for upside.

Even beyond the top 17, there’s an additional 8-10 QBs you can plug and play in the right matchups. Streaming QBs against bad defenses is not just a viable strategy, it’s the preferred method. After the first few weeks, we should have an idea on where defenses stand, and it’s typically vastly different from the previous year (another reason fantasy defenses are a bad bet early). I would fully preach the streaming strategy, but you have to know your league. If everyone drafts and holds 2 QBs, you won’t be able to stream very well.

This takes us to the biggest point in today’s rankings – QBs, more than any position, are dictated by the type of league you play in. This goes beyond your league settings, which do matter and you obviously should be checking. I’m referring to how your league drafts. It’s great and all to say wait on a QB, but if you’re whole league is taking their starters in the first 5 rounds and backups in round 9, you have to act early. Similarly, you have to react if all your league mates are taking all RBs and WR and avoiding QBs like they have Lupus. If you can get a discount on a player like Rodgers, there’s no reason not to do so. There’s nothing wrong with have a plan, but you need to be willing to break it if the draft doesn’t go as expected.

In most leagues, a running QB is preferred, if only because the extra points can really add up. I don’t think you need to go out of your way to add one, but 4 of my top 5 QBs will have big rushing totals, and even a streamer like Tyrod Taylor has ok value weekly because he will add some yards with his legs. Rushing TDs depend on if you play with 4 or 6 point passing TD leagues. In 4 point leagues, Cam Newton’s value rises a bit because of the likelihood he’ll provide 5-6 rushing TDs. In leagues were all TDs are equal, the communist setting if you will, rushing TDs are still nice, but you’d prefer the safety of a pocket passer. Players like Brady and Matt Ryan rise a bit. Still, the rushing yards remain a perk, so all runners have a higher floor.

I personally hate carrying a backup QB, but I can see it in a couple of scenarios. Maybe you take two QBs ranked between 11-16 and want to play matchups. Normally, I would just stream, but if your league loves drafting QBs and everyone carries a backup, beat them to the punch and take two decent guys. You will kick yourself for playing the wrong one all year, but that’s fantasy. I can certainly see taking a backup if you draft someone like Pat Mahomes, who’s unproven, or Andrew Luck, who may not have a working arm. Normally though, you want to leave the draft with 1 QB. Barring injury, you won’t need a secon QB for the first couple weeks, unless you drafted Stafford. And honestly, who’s fault would that be? Look yourself in the mirror and give your head a shake.

Finally, if you’re a masochist playing in a 2 QB league, I recommend drafting one fairly early, and then try to get your 2nd of the top 17 guys. You probably want them before the 8^th round or so, but again, depends on your league. You’ll also want to get a third starter for your bench. A terrible Qb, say Joe Flacco, is still plenty valuable on bye weeks or for spot starts than a team who only drafted two players and has to plug in Brett Hundley. Or maybe the Ravens do the right thing and play Lamar Jackson? Who knows?

So, you don’t have to be the last guy to take a QB, but you certainly don’t need to be the first either. I recommend choosing three targets and keeping tabs on those three QBs. Don’t have tunnel vision, and remember who’s also available, but make a note on how your three targets are lasting. I recommend the third guy being your last ranked QB you’re comfortable starting week 1. You want to make sure that player, and all the players ranked before him are not crossed out before you complete your team. It seems simple, but getting too lax, even at QB, could cost you your season.

My ranks are based on standard QB scoring – 4 points a passing touchdown. The leagues I’ve set up subtract two points for all turnovers, but the standard is -1 for an INT and -2 for a lost fumble. I think INTs are just as bad, but I’m also not the fantasy czar. If you’re settings are different than the above, consider making a few adjustments.

 

The Crown Doesn’t Move Tier

Aaron Rodgers

Russell Wilson

 

Rodgers is the best QB in the league, and even if you think his weapons have taken a hit without prime Jordy Nelson (a narrative that isn’t brought up enough), Rodgers will drag 2 and maybe 3 weapons with him to fantasy stardom. My rule with Rodgers is always the same – draft him when you don’t feel good about anyone else available. I think around the middle of the third, he’s fair to consider.

Wilson probably has a higher ceiling than Rodgers this year if only because of Rushing and the presumed deficits. I think there’s still a chance Seattle could be decent, but with Wilson, they should be in most games. He’s not throwing the ball 650 times, but he’ll run a bunch and has a star WR. The development of a running game can only help Wilson’s prospects.

 

Sky Is The Limit Tier

Cam Newton

Deshaun Watson

Tom Brady

 

With arguable the best weapons of his career, and an offensive guru/failed head coach Norv Turner, Newton could be in line for his best passing season as a pro. However, he’ll still need to run to keep up with the elites at the position. I don’t think that skill declines this season. Could be a nice value for an elite fantasy qb.

Watson’s upside is matching his insane rookie pace, but that’s extremely unlikely. He does have a lot of speed, Deandre Hopkins and the ability to extend plays. His price is far too high though.

It’s weird to call a 41 year old an upside pick, but Brady’s offense is second to none. There’s still weapons all over the place here, but Brady has no mobility. All it takes is a down year for the line or father time, and the fantasy gravy train is over.

 

Elite Offense Tier

Carson Wentz

Philip Rivers

Drew Brees

 

Wentz is held back a bit due to his rehab and recovery, but don’t forget he was the likely MVP of the league. He’ll never match his TD efficiency last season, but with more attempts, even a regression could lead to a top 5 season. Just make sure he’s still on pace for week 1, unless you’re willing to hold a second QB.

Rivers is perennially underrated and with a devastating blow to their defensive unit, the team may need to throw even more. Hunter Henry’s injury hurts, but not enough to down grade the offense. This is a team with elite receiving options. He’s my first QB target.

Sure, Brees’ numbers took a hit, but a lot was due to unusually low TD numbers. That should increase, but don’t expect him to be the week winner he used to be. Kamara and maybe Ingram, depending on his status after his 4 game suspension, carry this team now. Brees will put up numbers, but he’s not a lock and loaded QB, especially out of the domes.

 

Last Sure Fire QB1 Tier

Kirk Cousins

Matt Ryan

 

Cousins goes from a team he hated to a loaded roster with a chip on his shoulder (and a lot of money). While I don’t think he’s as talented as any of the other top 10 options, he is surrounded by 3 elite weapons and a good TE. He’s really have to play poorly to not return value.

Ryan suffered similarly to Brees, only his offense didn’t shift to a power running game. The team just chose not to score TDs. It was weird. I expect Ryan to bounce back. He’ll never play like 2016 again, but he’ll be a weekly starter, at least at home. Maybe Julio will catch a few endzone targets too. We can pray for miracles.

 

Call Your Shot Tier

Marcus Mariota

Pat Mahomes

Ben Roethlisberger

Jimmy Garoppolo

 

I’m not sure these players belong this high, but the upside is immense. At this point in the draft, I’d rather swing for the fences on a QB instead of take a ho hum option.

In a new offense and with his rushing ability, Mariota offers significant upside at a low price. A lot of his ascent seems to rely on Corey Davis, but you could see vast improvement on his stats with contributions from the entire offense. He goes late enough that I have confidence waiting on QB.

Nobody walks into a better first situation as a starter than Mahomes. The weapons are plentiful and he has a cannon, but we don’t know really how he’ll play. One decent meaningless week 17 doesn’t make a star. Still, with Andy Reid and the weapons around him, he’ll be hard pressed to fail.

Big Ben isn’t a secret. With the two best skill players around him, the only thing holding Ben in this tier is his horrific road play. I have no idea why it’s a thing, but the splits are very real. He’s the NFL’s version of a Rockies’ hitter. He’ll likely be elite at home, and the end line looks good, but it’s not fun owning him.

Short of Big Ben, Garoppolo is likely the best QB in the group, but his mediocre weapons hold him back for me. Somebody will jump on him, whether it’s a fantasy player or a fan girl, so I doubt I’ll have him in 2018. Solid, but not elite.

Last Call Tier

Eli Manning

Andrew Luck

Jared Goff

 

If you were rolling out a real football team, having Eli on your roster would likely make you want to puke regularly. You’d look away and await to be fired for your construction. In fantasy, hideous, should be picks that a defensive back drop, don’t count against and he has a ton of talent around him. He should fall, potentially face first, into value.

If Luck was healthy, he’s be ahead of Brees. As it stands now, nobody has seen him actually throw a football. Sadly, I have to deduct points for that. If he proves he is healthy, he’ll skyrocket, but I’m not taking that risk on until I see proof of health.

Sure, Goff was great last season, but let me see it again before I fully buy in. He had a very high TD%, and anybody will look good after a year of reviving from Jeff Fisher. I do like his receiving core though, so hopefully his emergence continues.

 

Loser Who Cost You A Fantasy Title Tier

Matthew Stafford

 

Stafford is terrible.

However, some of you probably think higher of him than me. I don’t see nearly as much upside as with other people. It’s a mediocre offense with two real receiving weapons. However, he’s safe. This is the last player I’d want to start week one. I mean, I don’t want to start him, but you know what I mean.

Everyone below Stafford is streamer only, and should only be held on to beyond one week due to a hot streak, or the potential emergence.

 

Elite Streaming Tier

Case Keenum

Alex Smith

Jameis Winston

 

Keenum goes from a team with two really good receivers to a team with… two older really good receivers. I don’t think there’s much of a downgrade here, but I think it’s bigger for the wideouts than Keenum’s value himself.

Smith does take a decent hit from last year’s shocking top 5 finish. The Redskins have some talent on the offensive side of the ball, but outside of a freak healthy season from Jordan Reed, it’s mostly meh.

Winston is sidelined for three games for being a crappy person. He misses three tough games and should go back to being a decent stream when he returns. He’s very matchup dependent at this point.

 

Average Streaming Tier

Derek Carr

Blake Bortles

Dak Prescott

Mitchell Trubisky

Tyrod Taylor

 

Carr is surrounded by Amari Cooper and aging players. He’ll need Cooper to realize his potential in order to have value this season.

You know what you’re in for with Bortles. It’s unwatchable, tear out your hair football, but every season, he ends up as a decent QB option. He’s not a draftable asset but in a good matchup, you could do worse. I mean, he’s ranked ahead of guys, so obviously. He runs just enough to matter too.

Dak really fell off the map, but he really needs to rely on his legs to be a fantasy player. There is no go to player, unless Michael Gallup is a superstar right away.

There wasn’t much from Mitchel Trubisky last season, but with imaginative play calling, he’s the QB most likely to make a leap from this group. It will require a return to form from Allen Robinson though.

As long as Tyrod plays, he’ll be a solid fantasy QB. We just don’t know how long he’ll be the starter. It’s not long.

 

I mean, They Play QB Tier

Sam Bradford

Ryan Tannehill

Andy Dalton

Josh McCown

 

Bradford at least can bank on his accuracy and having Fitzgerald and Johnson to throw to. He‘ll also have a rookie breathing down his neck for the starting job.

Tannehill does run, which is always a plus, but he really hasn’t shown anything special to feel secure in playing him. I’m sure he’ll be useful for a few weeks. He’s a rich man’s Deshone Kizer.

Andy Dalton got a reputation for being better than he was. He somehow managed to pull down AJ Green’s value last season. That’s not a good sign. I don’t understand how he’s still in Cincy. He probably won’t lose you a game in a spot start, but he’s not winning one either.

McCown loves leading with his head whether he sneaks, which is not good for his logn term health. However, his rushing does give him a fantasy baseline. But c’mon, you can do better than this for fantasy, even if the Jets can’t.

 

Unranked:

Joe Flacco

Baker Mayfield

Josh Rosen

Sam Darnold

Josh Allen

AJ MaCarron

Lamar Jackson

Just for the record, if all of these players became starters, the most valuable player of the bunch would be Jackson. If anything happens there, keep him in mind.