2018 Bloggin Hood Fantasy Football Preview – WR Position, Tiers and Ranks
August 8, 2018The 2018 Bloggin Hood Positional Previews is our second series of the NFL preseason and sets itself up like a Summer Blockbuster. It features overpaid celebrities, gaping logic holes and little to no satisfactory conclusions. If you expected more than a fluff piece that rehashes on the team previews, you’ve clearly come to the wrong blog.
After reviewing all 32 rosters, and yes, we are counting the Bills as a roster, this merges all the opinions and research into 4 compact lists of players, tiered off from where I see a moderate to severe talent and opportunity gap. Ultimately, this series will end with a complete set of ranks, based on the top 200 or so players. Defenses and kickers are excluded from this exercise. I can barely review and judge a running back… Do you really want me to predict defensive rankings based in interior lineman play? So no, we’ll be sticking with the positions featured in fantasy football, thank you very much.
In the modern NFL, WRs have leapfrogged RBs in importance. Teams aren’t afraid to pay top dollar for WRs and the popular thought is that RBs are a dime a dozen, except for a select few. Now, teams rarely practice what they preach, taking RBs earlier and earlier in the NFL draft since this determination was made, with Sequon Barkley having buzz at the #1 pick and ultimately going second. Some teams aren’t shy at giving their RBs money – look at the Rams and even the Browns. Some hold strong against it, as seen in the annual Le’Veon Bell vs the Steelers battle.
On the other hand, WRs seem to only grow in importance every year. Even the top tier running backs excel because of their involvement in the passing game. More and more teams have adopted hurry up and spread offenses, and QBs who don’t throw at least 550 times are either rare, or coached by a Neanderthal. Most good NFL offenses have at least 3 pass catchers that can all make plays, although this includes TEs or RBs.
In fantasy, the WR position has had a roller coaster ride of importance. Early days pushed it off nearly as much as TE or QB. Then, with the death of the workhorse back, WRs jumped up draft boards. There were entire strategies devoted to this. The Zero RB strategy, always referenced but rarely explained, had drafters avoid taking any backs until the 4th round or later, instead loading up at the “safer” WR position. This strategy can work, but it is flawed as WR numbers, while somewhat consistent annually, are very spotty week to week. Even the best WRs put up dud games not seen at other positions. After last season, when WR scoring was down a bit, people have abandoned the strategy all together, clamoring for as many running backs as possible. It’s 2002 all over again.
I don’t entirely agree, but there’s truth to this. The early round RBs are the safer bet and typically give the best chance to win. However, points are points, and top flight WRs should be drafted early too. Nobody ever lost a league because they drafted Antonio Brown. Part of the reason WRs often get pushed down draft boards is the depth of the position. While there’s certainly more options at wide out than RB you’d feel safe starting, missing a top level player in order to draft a ho hum back is a mistake. Nobody should be taken Joe Mixon over teammate AJ Green for example. I would hope nobody ranked the playeys that way, but people go RB crazy. In the first three rounds, you should come away with one WR at least, but it always depends on value. Drafting for positional need is about as stupid as rooting for a team owned by the Wilpons. Not quite as stupid, but close.
Much like running backs, talent is a bit overrated for fantasy purposes. Sure, it plays a factor, but even the players that get bashed in this and every other fantasy column are insanely talented. Just making it to the bottom of a practice squad requires physical talent, mental discipline and natural gifts 99% of the population will never understand. However, some of the most talented humans in the world never got a chance to shine. An example, maybe, is Kevin White from Chicago. We never got to see him play due to injuries and at this point, he’s been passed on the depth chart. I don’t know if he would have done anything as a pro, but this is just one example. There’s probably 10,000 in the NFL alone.
When you’re looking at WRs, the most important thing for a receiver is targets. Targets used to be “an underground” stat for the casual player, where nobody understood anything. Now of course, targets are pretty mainstream, and a ton of made up, ridiculous metrics flood our screens. Targets aren’t a complicated measure, but not all targets are created equal. You need to know what numbers about targets matter.
Amount – Yeah, ok, granted this was obvious, but having a high number of targets is a good thing. Most players won’t have double digit targets per game. That’s only for your absolute stars. You’re hoping for a player later on in your drafts who might get 6-7 targets a game. That puts them around the 100-110 range for the season. You’d be surprised how later a few of these guys go.
Depth of Targets – Some Quarterbacks, mainly Sam Bradford, enjoy peppering their receivers with short routes repeatedly. Other quarterbacks like to sling the ball downfield and hope for the best. In theory, the further the target is, the more points the player can earn. You don’t want low depth of target numbers on your wideouts A bunch of short routes won’t amount to high point totals.
Of course, if you’re in a PPR league, those short routes arne’t so bad. Players like Jarvis Landry, Julian Edelman and Golden Tate all get a huge boon in the stock in PPR leagues regardless of their yardage totals. This short volume doesn’t hurt, and it’s much more sustainable than deep targets. But games of 5 catches for 45 yards don’t exactly move the needle. Make sure you realize what type of receiver you’re looking at before using a pick on a player.
Goal Line – The holy grail of fantasy targets, having the leading receiver targeted at the goal line is huge. Don’t assume this is always the TE or even the #1 receiver – Julio Jones for example has never dominated the goal line despite having the profile for it. Typically, this is a big physical receiver. Touchdowns aren’t everything, but this is usually a sign of who the QB trusts the most.
The elite players will wind up with a 25-30% target share in offense. Those are the biggest WRs in fantasy.
Something that used to matter was the player’s role in the offense. As recent as five years ago, the slot was considered a place for a team’s medicore receiver. Wayne Cherbet lost many a brain cell going over the middle out of the slot, often directly into several large men. It was weird. Today, the slot is considered a boon to a receiver, and both aging players and stars line up out of the slot a ton, racking up catches and yards in mismatches. If you’re new to football, you probably think of the slot as a positive thing. That wasn’t always the case.
Generally, the outside receivers are who are going deep, but WRs line up all over the field, trying to get the main target open. Don’t worry so much if you hear that a WR you like will line up outside more, or will be featured in the slot. For the most part, if the team likes a player, they should move him around. It means they’re trying to get him the ball.
Even the WR hierarchy doesn’t matter so much anymore. While you want the #1 target in the offense, remember, teams pass the ball a lot. As good as Antonio Brown is, he’s not getting every single look. The #2 WR on a lot of teams is more than viable, and a few are ranked very generously. Some teams, like the Vikings, just have two really good receivers. I wouldn’t recommend snagging both Vikings on the same team, but it’s not the worst idea I’ve ever heard. Have fun if the Vikings get shut out though.
Finally, and most importantly, remember who the team’s QB is. This is probably the most important stat in the world. Two years ago, I boldly ranked DeAndre Hopkins 4th overall, behind Bell, Brown, and Adrian Peterson(?). I’ll be honest, I forget the 3rd guy. It happens. Anyway, my stated reason for the ranking was “Hopkins is the second best receiver in the NFL and no matter who’s throwing him the ball, he’s a sure thing”. Well, Brock Osweiler took that as a personal challenge and despite forcing the ball to Hopkins constantly, there was nothing that could be done. Passing we’re sailing into the upper deck. Try starting a draft pairing Hopkins with Brandon Marshall that year, and you can imagine how quickly I was awaiting the start of the NBA season.
A good QB covers up a lot of a WRs shortcomings. They can throw the ball in the perfect spot and figure out a WRs strengths. You’re much better off drafting a WR with a great QB over a great WR with an awful QB. I don’t think anyone would have Devante Adams in their top 10 without Aaron Rodgers, but because he does play with the best QB, Adams is fairly safe. Great QBs can support two, or potential three targets to relevance in fantasy. When in doubt, definitely go with a WR linked to a good QB. It’ll prevent you from pulling your hair out.
Receivers with iffy QBs can excel through volume and talent. AJ Green has made a career of it. However, AJ Green’s don’t exactly grow on trees. So before you start picking the #1 WRs on Chicago, Dallas, Buffalo and the Jets remember who your tying your fantasy season too.
First Round Tier
Antonio Brown
DeAndre Hopkins
Odell Beckham Jr.
Brown probably deserves his own tier, but I grouped him with the next two best options at the position. Nobody has come close to the consistency of Brown, and we’re getting to the point where it’s not a matter of if he’s a hall of famer, but where he ranks all time. It’ll end up being higher than you’d think. Brown or Megatron? I think you have to go Brown.
If you give Hopkins a bad QB, hell produce at an elite level. So if you give Hopkins potentially a top 5 QB, do you have the #1 receiver in fantasy? It sure seems that way. If Watson is just 75% what he was in 2017, Hopkins might be the #1 WR next year.
Beckham’s injury should be all healed up and the fear around him doesn’t make much sense. People are drafting guys coming off more serious injuries with full confidence. He seems locked and loaded, and while he’s a headcase, there’s no question who the top dog is on the Giants offense, even with Barkley.
Top Flight WR 1 Tier
Julio Jones
Keenan Allen
Michael Thomas
AJ Green
Davante Adams
Julio took a lot of flak for his 2017 season, and in many ways, it was fair. He only managed 3 TDs all season, and outside of his enormous 2 TD week, he didn’t do too much by his standards. Just don’t forget, his standards are really, REALLY good. By sheer luck, he should score more TDs, and hopefully he catches closer to his usual 100 passes. It’s tempting to go elsewhere when Julio’s on the board, but remember, he can still be amazing without a lot of TDs.
Allen seems to be pegged as a high volume low yards guy, but that’s not the case. He might not be an elite speedster, but he can make big plays, and he should have one of the highest target shares in the NFL. Sure, the Chargers have weapons, but nobody else in Allen’s class. Few players are.
A lot of drafters grew frustrated with Thomas last season, and all he did was be insanely consistent and improve on everything but TDs. If he matches what he did last year and scores 4 more times, he’s a top 3-4 WR. Even if Drew Brees is being dialed back and the Saints are a run first team, Thomas’ volume is safe.
Green is the only receiver in this tier not linked to a top QB, but we’ve seen him succeed with Andy Dalton before. Sure, I wish he was getting passes from another elite QB, but he’s making due. Even his “awful” 2017 produced 1,000 yards. Barring injury, his floor is still a low end WR 1, and maybe this is the year he slips in drafts.
I think out of the receivers in the first four rounds, Adams has the least natural talent. However, when you play with Aaron Rodgers, a lot of your warts look like beauty marks. To his credit, he still played well when Rodgers was hurt, and is a regular double digit TD scorer. I don’t think that changes. He might finally finish with 1,000 yards as well.
Mostly Vikings Tier
Adam Thielen
Mike Evans
Stefon Diggs
Thielen seems like another short route, pure volume guy, but if you’ve watched him or seen his stats, you know that’s not true. He makes big plays but also has reliable hands, and there’s no reason to think his involvement in the offense would decrease. With a few more TDs, Thielen might be a top 5 guy next year.
Evans is basically a slighty worse AJ Green – seemingly disappointing, but still managed 1,00 yards. There’s no real competition for targets, and if you believe in the “bad team more throws” theory, Evans should have a ton of work. If you get 8 TDs, he might be a bargain.
I don’t need to tell you how awesome I think Diggs is, but you have to factor in his healthy and streakiness. Diggs will miss a couple of games, and while his streakiness isn’t on the level of a DeSean Jackson, it’s the hallmark of a big play receiver. Don’t get too down on him though, Diggs can play a possession role and found a lot of short end zone spikes. I prefer Thielen’s healthier career for an early pick, but Diggs is the (slightly) more skilled NFL player. I have no issue if you took Diggs first and at the draft, I won’t be shocked if I flip the order.
The Redemption Tier
TY Hilton
Demaryius Thomas
Amari Cooper
Larry Fitzgerald
Doug Baldwin
Chris Hogan
If Andrew Luck is healthy, Hilton will move up a tier, either before or after Thielen. If Luck is not healthy, he’s currently about 15 spots too high. I split the difference for now. A healthy Luck makes Hilton is a sneaky bet to lead the lead in targets, and we’ve seen what the two of them can do.
Thomas seems like a safe bounce back candidate with a decent QB throwing him the ball. It wasn’t that Thomas was bad last year, he just didn’t get a chance to succeed, ironic considering the volume that came his way. Again, all targets are not made equal. He’s a high floor, medium ceiling WR this year, and if he sits there in the fourth round, he’s almost an auto pick.
It’s scary to draft Cooper after his 2017, but that seemed like the perfect storm of a disappointing team and the Raiders not utilizing Cooper as he should have been. Unless Jordy Nelson winds up peppered with targets, Cooper should get the volume levels where he can’t fail. Unless he drops all the passes… which is in play. Hold your breath making this pick.
Nobody wants to draft Fitz as he’s 34 years old playing in a shaky team. However, he’s had back to back 1,000 yard seasons and seems like money in the bank. Unlike other players, Fitz reinvented himself from a downfield threat to a master in the slot, and that shouldn’t change this year. Take any age discount you get.
Baldwin’s ranking is strictly due to his injury news, as he was originally at the end of tier 2. Things might change and Baldwin could be ready for week 1, but I’d rather let others draft him now while the risk is it’s highest. It’s also possible to use this to your advantage and get a WR 1 at WR 2 prices. He’s the only established, ascending game in town. I phrased that specifically to avoid Brandon Marshall troll comments.
Yes I do have Hogan too high, thanks for noticing. I think this could be the year he started to have in 2017 before he got hurt. Do I love the prospects of Hogan when both Gronk and Edelman are on the field together? Not really. But do I think Gronk and Edelman will be on the field for the remaining 12 games after Edelman’s suspension ends? Not really either. Hogan is their outside receiver, and that could be huge.
I’d Prefer Not Tier
Tyreek Hill
Alshon Jeffrey
Marvin Jones
Hill has the ability to make big plays, but with the arrival of Sammy Watkins, I think his overall potential takes a hit. When you factor in how much he did with so little targets (relative to his finish), maybe a drop in volume won’t be so bad. But you’re banking on long TDs and the need to produce WR1 numbers on possibly 100 targets. That’s not a top tier fantasy asset.
Jeffrey is a skilled receiver, but his body seems to always betray him. He is, again, recovering from a shoulder injury and you cannot possibly rely on him for 16 healthy games. Zach Ertz is the real #1 option on the team. Jeffrey is decent, and he scores TDs, but the volume wasn’t there last year and I don’t anticipate it’ll be there in 2018.
I actually like Jones this season, though volume is also not his game. Jones is a big play guy and has made them regularly, even with an awful QB throwing him ducks. However, with a lower target volume than most fantasy stars, you can’t fully rely on him as a #1. As a 2, sure. As a 3, awesome. But not as a 1.
Knockout Punch Tier
Juju Smith-Schuster
Golden Tate
Josh Gordon
Brandin Cooks
Allen Robinson
This tier is named as above because if you land one of these players and they hit their peak, you might have won the league.
Juju is going a bit too high for my taste based on his rookie year. I think he’s definitely a talented receiver, but there’s proven production in the 4th round. The problem with Smith-Schuster is that he can never be more than the third option on the team. Will he be useful? Sure. But I can’t see him being more than a WR2.
Tate is the one player in this tier who does not have pure blowup potential. He’s a slot receiver, volume play who has the ability to make big plays, but prefers running short routes. If you have risk early, Tate offers perceived stability, but oddly enough, he’s put up some crappy games for a player of his ilk. Be careful here.
Ah, the biggest mystery of all. Are we 100% sure Gordon is going to play week 1? Or is this latest news just his way to avoid Hard Knocks filming and training camp? Gordon has competition for catches this year, but he’s the unquestioned Alpha Dog and if things break right, could be a top 5 WR. He could also be out of the NFL. I don’t know if I’ll have the guts to take him unless he falls, but the upside is so appealing.
Cooks has never been one of my favorite players – the boom or bust receivers never are. However, he has received decent volume in past years, making him safer than the most. He does fall into the Sammy Watkins role, so there’s fear of him being a decoy, but I think he’ll be more than that. I just don’t like him as much as most rankers. Your mileage may vary.
I won’t lie – Robinson scares me. It’s not so much the ACL tear, but entering a new system with a new coaching staff. There’s a lot of moving parts. The situation can’t be worse than Jacksonville, but I’m not convinced he returns to dominance. 2016 was the outlier. He could be a WR 2, but I’d rather gamble on Gordon than Robinson. I don’t think people are realizing the risk here.
Choose Your Hill Tier
Corey Davis
Emmanuel Sanders
Sammy Watkins
With apologies to Tyreek, this is about three very different players and a very different definition of “hill”.
Davis is everyone’s darling, and while I don’t know if I’m ready to give him a superstar projection, if I believe in Mariota, I have to believe in Davis somewhat. He has the pedigree to be a star, and in recent years, it’s the second season where WRs bust out. There’s not too much in front of him, so I can see the narrative, but I’d want him as a 3.
Last year was the first disappointing season for Sanders in recent memory. Most of that was due to nagging injuries and horrific QB play. With Keenum under center, I expect a bounce back season from Sanders, and a player you can get at a steep discount. It wouldn’t be surprising if he out scores Thomas.
Andy Reid uses his weapons well. Sure, he may use them frustratingly, but he does get results. The only time he didn’t was when he acquired Dwayne Bowe, who never saw the ball. Is Watkins finally going to reach his potential, or is he Dwayne Bowe 2.0? Based on this ranking, I guess I’m leaning toward stardom. Remember, even in a super disappointing year, where he failed to get 100 targets, Watkins still scored 8 times. This is a good player.
Boring Volume Tier
Michael Crabtree
Jamison Crowder
Pierre Garson
Randall Cobb
I don’t think Crabtree is done yet. Sure, his explosiveness has been done for a few seasons, but he’s a big, physical receiver than dominates the goal line. Sounds a lot like end of career Anquan Boldin. He was pretty good, wasn’t he? I think Flacco peppers Crabtree with targets because he only has one other option (hold that thought for a while).
Crowder was a disappointment, but he has a QB who suits his skill set and should dominant the middle of the field if/when Jordan Reed is hurt. That’s 14 games of running free! Treat Crowder like a WR 3 but if TDs fall his way, he might finish in the top 24.
If not for an ACL tear, Garcon would have had 1,00 yards last year. In fact, he tore his ACL during his 8th game, with 500 yards. That’s the exact pace needed. Garcon should be the safety valve on the team and lead the 49ers in targets. However, note he does not score TDs at all.
Cobb is already suffering from a bum ankle which might ruin any sleeper potential he had. However if he can have a healthy year, seemingly a long shot, he could return to WR 2 value. Rodgers is making someone other than Devante Adams fantasy relevant, and the best odds are on Cobb. If he doesn’t stay healthy though, abandon ship. He has not played well with any injury limitations in the past.
Hold Your Hype Tier
Robby Anderson
Jarvis Landry
Robert Woods
Marquise Goodwin
I like Anderson. No really, I do. But I don’t think he’s a legitimate WR1 in the NFL. He does have speed and big play ability but his legal trouble could halt that. Still, he’s emerged at different times for two straight seasons, and he’s a gamebreaker. Just know he might miss some time.
I think Landry is a very good NFL receiver but most of his fantasy stats are predicated on volume. No longer the #1 option, Landry also has to deal with an extremely good receiving back. His numbers are taking a hit this season.
Woods is probably my favorite player on this list, but it requires you’re league avoiding him. I think he’s the true #1 on the rams, but it’s cluttered. Note that when Woods, Watkins and Cupp where all on the field, Woods was far and away the most productive. If your league sleeps, he might be a bargain.
I do like Goodwin, but to own him, you have to pay the Jimmy G tax. Goodwin is the flashier 49ers receiver, so I think he’ll be a reach candidate in a lot drafts. He has value, but he’s a WR 3, not a potential stud.
These Are #1? Tier
Marquise Lee
Cooper Kupp
Devin Funchess
Julian Edelman
Kenny Stills
Kelvin Benjamin
Lee did not impress on an analytic level. He was inefficient and clearly not a lead dog of a receiving core. But I do think he’s more talented than he showed and he’s going to get reasonable volume. Not all volume is equal, but I’d rather have some than none at all. That’s deep friends.
Kupp was a goal line and safety valve for the rams who I could see his role ranging from the top option to the #3 on his team. It is up in the air, but I think his targets take a back seat to Woods and Cooks. Not a bad pick, but this is a crowded offense.
Funchess wasn’t bad last season and has the large frame you want for the red zone. I just don’t know what his upside is with other, more talented options around him. However, the “Greg Olsen might be done” angle is possible, and that would leave a lot of targets for Funchess. I’m not saying I buy any negatively on Olson, but for his price, Funchess is worth a shot.
Edelman misses the first four games so he’s tough to rank. He should take his role back in week 5, but will he lose a step? Edelman is no youngster and the injuries are piling up. You need a specific team to stash Edelman and while I see value, I also see a bunch of active players available during the draft when he’s the next player on the list. I don’t love this stash.
Can we all just admit that Kenny Stills is the best receiver on the team? He’s outperformed DeVante Parker for two years and should get an expanded role. The biggest issue is Stills specializes in deep targets and Tannehill specializes in checkdowns. I’d still take Stills as the first Dolphin receiver if you have to own a Miami player.
Every year, jokes of Kelvin Benjamin are thrown around. They’re super easy to make. But he’s put up some decent numbers especially around the goal line and he’s a #1 target on his team. Plus, he bashed the entire Panthers organization. Shouldn’t we support this bad behavior? Sports are more fun with people speaking freely.
Not Analytic Darlings Tier.
Will Fuller
DeVante Parker
Jordy Nelson
Allen Hurns
Will Fuller scored a touchdown on every 2 targets last season. Ok, that’s a lie, but it felt like it. Fuller won’t score nearly as frequent in 2017, but it you like Watson, and admit it, you do, you have to like Fuller, at least a bit. He’s the #2 on a presumed good offense. That’s at least a WR4, no?
Can we all just admit that Kenny Stills is the best receiver on the team? Wait, is there someone who disagrees? I suppose you can make the case Parker got off to a fast start last year before injuries derailed him. And he never got to expand on his budding chemistry with Tannehill, but I think I’m out on Parker. Let me see it first before I believe it.
Most people assume Jordy Nelson is done. I’m sort of one of them but maybe he has a bit left in the tank. Nelson is going to be the possession guy as the wheels aren’t the same anymore but he’ll have to develop special chemistry with Carr to be effective. If he’s not, don’t forget the excellent ride Nelson had.
By definition, somebody has to be the #1 in Dallas. Hurns is the popular pick, though I’m not his biggest supporter. Still, somebody will walk into 110 targets, and if Hurns can do that, he’ll have value.
#2s With A Purpose Tier
Sterling Shepard
Nelson Agholor
Mike Williams
Rishard Matthews
Shepard is probably closer to the 4th option than the second, but he’s been decent to good in his first two seasons and shouldn’t ever see double coverage. I wouldn’t want to rely on him weekly, but he should be a great bye week fill in.
Agholor was yet another player scoring TDs in fluke fashion. He did show he’s a big play threat, and he offers a share of the Eagles offense without a high investment. I don’t expect much from Agholor in consistency, but the final line should look solid.
With the injury to Hunter Henry, somebody needs to step up. My guess is Williams, a first round pick who never got a chance last season due to injury. He’s a large, tall receiver in traditional Chargers fashion, and is a solid late round flier.
Matthews isn’t a young gun but he produces as a top 30 receiver almost every year on low volume. He’s basically an anti bloggin hood receiver, but I can’t deny his production. If Cory Davis isn’t ready, Matthews becomes very valuable.
Youngsters Tier
DJ Moore
Paul Richardson
Dede Westbrook
Michael Gallup
Anthony Miller
Calvin Ridley
Kenny Golladay
Moore walks into the best situation for a rookie – no elite WRs, but weapons to avoid full defensive attention. Cam isn’t the most accurate QB, but Moore should be involved early and is worth an upside flier.
The Redskins are in desperate need of a deep threat and Richardson gives them that. He does need chemistry with Alex Smith, but if we get the 2017 version of the QB, Richardson could be a great value.
I won’t lie. Westbrook is more of a gut call and there’s about 4 receivers who can emerge in Jacksonville. I don’t think it’s Moncrief and DJ Chark is somewhat buried. So between Westbrook and Cole, I’ll take Westbrook as the team’s main deep threat.
If Allen Hurns is your team’s best receiver, there’s plenty of opportunity for other wideouts. Gallup should start week 1 and maybe he develops into a star. I think it’ll take time though so any value this year is likely a volume play.
Miller is likely the #2 in Chicago which should be an uptempo system. I think for a rookie receiver he has a nice floor, but not the upside of some of these other guys. At least not this season.
I soured on Ridley a bit. Sure, he’s the #3 receiver, but that’s a lot more targets he won’t get than I’d like. I think I underrated Sanu. If I want to draft based on talent, Ridley is a great pick. Just remember, opportunity is always king.
Golladay is no rookie, but he has a chance to emerge even if Marvin Jones and Golden Tate make it through the year. He exploded a few times last season, so he might be a boom or bust WR5. But there’s potential for more.
So You’re Saying There’s A Chance Tier
Tyler Lockett
Josh Doctson
Cameron Meredith
Quincy Enunwa
Tyrell Williams
Geronimo Allison
John Brown
With the injury to Baldwin, Lockett finds himself in the defacto #1 role for the preseason, and maybe beyond. There’s a lot of perceived upside with Lockett, but hasn’t there been for years? I think he is who he is at this point – a deep threat, boom or bust guy that probably does more for a real team. I’m not excited about him for the first time. Admitting I have a problem is a big step.
Doctson has the first round pedigree and the potential to be the team’s #1 option, but I keep seeing him hampered by nagging injuries and he hasn’t impressed me. Last year was his chance to grab the reigns on that job, and he faltered pretty bad. Still, he’s only in his third year, but this is his make or break season.
Meredith is one of those potential sneaky draft picks. He’s on the Saints as their #3 WR, but really could become the 2 if he surpasses Ted Ginn. Remember, his last healthy season, he put up very good numbers with the Bears and they had no other option. The biggest issue with Meredith is if there’s enough targets for him, but I like the sleeper appeal.
Enunwa could be the Jets’ most valuable receiver, and already has a decent 800 yard campaign on his resume. He is coming off a neck injury and suffered a thumb injury in camp, but it doesn’t sound serious. However, he will need to return quickly to have value. I think he’ll serve as the team’s safety valve, and could be a PPR play when Sam Darnold takes the job.
Tyrell Williams continues the Chargers’ tradition of drafting tall men named Williams, apparently. He has a 1,000 yard season, and could be in line for a lot of work with the Hunter Henry injury. Personally, I prefer Mike Williams to take the #2 role, but this Williams will have a couple useful weeks. Good guess knowing when those happen.
When Randall Cobb potentially hobbled again, there’s a role available in Green Bay. Allison is the favorite sleeper for many, but there’s been rumors he’ll be cut. That’s not good for sleeper potential. A late round pick for the potential second option of Aaron Rodgers is a great gamble, but I wouldn’t spend more draft capital until more is known as his role.
This is actually one of the sleepers I like. It’s rare you can get a player you’d gone over 1,000 yards before this late unless they were suspended or finished. Brown could have plenty in the tank. Due to sickle cell, Brown couldn’t play in Arizona often. The elevation was crippling. Now, he gets a fresh start in Baltimore who’s not exactly littered with world beaters. Flacco, for all his faults, still likes throwing it deep when he isn’t checking down, and Brown is the team’s best threat downfield. He’s basically free, so why not roll the dice?
This is it for the potential starting caliber players. I do have a few other tiers and then a giant list of “the rest”. From here on it, I’ll only write when I think it’s worth it.
An Injury Away Tier
Ryan Grant*
Chris Godwin
Donte Moncrief
Terrance Williams
Corey Coleman
Grant is the most interesting secondary option if Luck is healthy. I’d imagine he’d be the #2 weapon and that has value in a Luck led offense.
Godwin still looks like discount DeSean Jackson, and I envision him being a popular pick up midseason.
Coleman gets a fresh start in Buffalo, which would be great if they had an NFL roster. Good trade by the Bills though.
Dart throw tier
Danny Amendola
Cole Beasley
Tyler Boyd
John Ross
James Washington
Dante Pettis
Christian Kirk
Amendola could be the new Landry in Miami until he gets hurt in September.
Beasley is safe but after thinking about it, he’s like 5 catches, 45 yards a week safe. You can do better.
Boyd or Ross should be the WR#2 in Cincinati after Brandon Lafell was cut. I imagine that it’ll be Boyd in the slot and Ross on the outside, but neither jumps at me right now.
All the rookies have warts that I think prevent them from making a big impact. I expect Washington to explode 2-3 times this year though.
Unranked:
DeSean Jackson
Ted Ginn
Keelan Cole
Martavius Bryant
Mohammed Sanu
Travis Benjamin
Mike Wallace
Chester Rogers*
Torrey Smith
JJ Nelson
Jermaine Kearse
Terrelle Pryor
Taywan Taylor
Brandon Marshall
Willie Snead
Zay Jones
