2018 Bloggin Hood Fantasy Football Preview – Seattle and Tampa Bay Depth Charts

Every year, thousands of fantasy players win their leagues. Not only do they receive a giant trophy, they also receive a champion’s pay check and the right to mock the rest of their league mates until next season. Few things in life are more rewarding than winning, but even fewer top winning when you’ve done nothing but start virtual players. Truly, it’s the reason many of us get out of bed in the morning.

However, for every winner, there are hundreds of thousands of losers. Some of these poor unfortunate souls finish in second place. Others just miss the playoffs. But a select few come in dead last. These outcasts are mocked by even the next to last place finisher, forced to suffer through unending punishments and shamed to the point of severe confidence loss. There’s a reason you see a bunch of Viagra commercials during the NFL season. That will put those images of people sitting in adjacent tubs outside in a whole new light.

The 2018 Bloggin Hood Fantasy guide doesn’t look to help the first place winner. No, that’s not the Bloggin Hood way. Instead, we intend to give to the poor(poorly informed) by taking knowledge through tons of research(the rich). Now, who actually did this research? Why me, Bloggin Hood of course. If you don’t trust my work, go ahead suck a rock, or kick lemons. Do it in reverse and see if I care.

The Blogging Hood Fantasy guide is not for the faint of heart. The word count would make George RR Martin blush, mostly because he’s forgotten how to write. This year, we’re not even stopping at one preview. Welcome to Part 1 of the 2018 fantasy guide – Team Previews.

Over the next 16 weekdays, right until the last day in July, we’ll be looking at two NFL depth charts for potential breakouts, busts, and deep names to consider. What we will not be doing in part one is addresses ADP, or any actual rankings. I haven’t looked at any of that stuff yet. At this point in the year, it’s irrelevant. If you’re drafting in July, it means you’re baseball team has probably tanked to 12^th place. It’s way too early to hone in on ADP. We’ll save that for part two.

If you followed the Bloggin Hood Fantasy Baseball guide and find yourself in 12^th place, no refunds.

Without further ado, let’s dissect two team’s depth charts, as per rotoworld.com.

Seattle Seahawks

The Legion of Boom is no more. Richard Sherman has taken his loud mouth and declining play over to rival San Francisco is a true WWE inspired move. If there’s ever been a time to call back an old Photoshop, this is it.

Ah. Amazing.

In addition, Earl Thomas continues to demand to leave Seattle, and the changing of the guard is upon us. Last year, Seattle was far from a shut down aerial unit and they are no longer a draftable defensive asset. I know, I know, I don’t really write about team defenses, but it felt relevant here.

Additionallt, the team has lost it’s smash mouth, rushing identity, becoming more of a finesse passing team. Part of this was due to the decline of the defense. Another, bigger part of this was the atrocious play of the Offensive Line. The Seahawks didn’t have the greatest line even in their heyday, but Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch made it work. Last year, prime Shaun Alexander might have averaged 2 yards a carry. It was abysmal, which caused Wilson’s stats to spike as he threw due to being down heavily in games for the first item in his career, and because handing the ball off was basically sacrificing a down.

This year, the Hawks have made moves to return to the smash mouth style. They let emerging WR Paul Richardson walk, tried to revamp the offensive line, and drafted Rashaad Penny in the first round. All these indicators should trend toward the rushing game, but is their line any better? I mean, it couldn’t be worse, right? I think they started 5 bags of sand, which actually was an improvement over the Giants’ 4 bags and Flowers approach.

QBs

Russell Wilson –

Considering the crumbling line play around him, Wilson’s 2017 season was remarkable. While he averaged the least yards per attempt of his career, he covered for it by throwing for 34 TDs and adding an additional 586 yards rushing and three scores. It’s the rushing yards that make Wilson a standout QB option – The fantasy points from that alone was 76 last season. It’s unlikely he’ll avoid running, the only time he failed to eclipsed 500 yards was his rookie year (489) and 2016 (259), where he was hobbled.

However, I’d expect the passing TDs and even the attempts to decrease as the team moves back to pounding the ball on the ground. I’m not sure the Seahawks have the talent to do this every game, but I don’t see Wilson creeping up to 600 attempts this year. I also think the decrease in weapons around him doesn’t help. It could, in theory, need to more rushing yards, but asking for much more than 500 is hoping for a lot. Wilson is likely a top 3 option, but last year represents his ceiling. Don’t pay that price.

RB – Rashaad Penny – I wouldn’t lie to you guys (and admit it), but I don’t really know much about Penny from college. What I do know is the Seahawks used a first round pick on him, want to start running the ball more, and have hyped him as a third down back. Penny must have talent to be drafted so high, but more importantly, he has opportunity, which reigns king in fantasy. If he gets a lion’s share of the work, he’ll be a top 15 back. Depending on where Penny goes in ADP, you might make a huge profit on him.

At least, that’s what I thought until all of this Chris Carson hype. Currently in camp, Carson is the starter, and if Pete Carroll hasn’t shut up about him. I mean, he talks up Carson in ever facet of his life. Yesterday, he was quoted as saying “Carson really brushes his teeth like a first string running back. Powerful anti plague techniques”. I still think this is more of a motivational tool for Penny, but there will be, at least, a split in the backfield to start the year. Things could change – injuries, pre season performance, ect, but Penny needs to fall in the ranks for now. This could be good for you, as I do think he’ll be the back to own and it’ll lower his price. In fear of the Carson hype, I consider Penny a fringe RB2.

Oh and before some snot nosed jerk says something like “Hey! Bloggin Hood! You poo pooed Sony Michel and he was a first round pick!” The difference is the Patriots are run like the CIA and half of what they do are smokescreens. They haven’t had a regular, workhorse back since Corey Dillon. The Seahawks tend to play rookies (ie Wilson), and actively want to run the ball. This shouldn’t be that hard.

Chris Carson – Here’s something I did not expect. Carson is opening camp as the #1 listed back? What? I wrote 2 versions with strict praise for the rookie I had to scrap. Come on Pete Carroll, work with me.

There’s some simple Math to be done here. Carson was a 7^th round pick who looked ok for 4 games in 2017. Penny is a first round pick who was taken after the Seahawks already had Carson. Doesn’t this seem little more than a motivational tool for the rookie? Carson is fine, and might even be good as the starter, but don’t over blow this story yet unless he’s taking significant first team snaps in week 3 of the pre season. I think Carson makes a good, perhaps great, late round flier, but nothing more. But if he’s still the starter throughout preseason when drafts start, it’ll be a good time to re-evaluate.

CJ Prosise  – What could have been. After a promising burst in 2016, Prosise got hurt when he could have claimed the lead back duties going forward. In 2017, while everyone was hurt, Prosise couldn’t stay healthy either and barely played all season. Now, he’s fighting for a roster spot. In a perfect world, he’ll handle some passing down work and spell some carries as Penny’s backup. However, he might get cut, which could be good for his future prospects. But man, I was all in last year. Prosise is undraftable right now.

Mike Davis – Davis filled in when all other players were in a hospital bed by week 10 and he performance… well, he showed up. He averaged 3.5 yards per carry and failed to score a TD. Davis is nothing more than a depth play for the Seahwaks and he should not show up on any of your draft boards. He probably shouldn’t have been in any of your line ups last year either, but I’m not here to judge you.

JD McKissic – He’s probably a special teams player, but if Prosise was cut and the Seahawks decide not to give Penny the receiving of the snaps, McKissic could have value in a PPR league. He caught 34 passes last year, and may catch a few more in an expanded role. If all 5 backs listed make the team though, McKissic is a complete non factor without injuries.

WRs

Doug Baldwin – This is the year that I’m actually in on Doug Baldwin as a WR1 and possibly in the top 10 at the position. I do this being fully aware that he’s fairly streaky and produced a few absolute duds last year. The pro Baldwin argument, beyond his stat lines over the past few years, is he has clear chemistry with Wilson, especially when Wilson scrambles around. The bigger news is the departure of Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson. This leaves a lot of targets and a lot of red zone looks available. Baldwin won’t get all of them, but he’s getting an increased share. I still wouldn’t want Baldwin as one of my first two picks – but on a team with two workhorse backs or a star WR and RB, sign me up.

Tyler Lockett – The case that can be made for Lockett is similar to Baldwin’s – there’s no one else available to catch passes. However, the big difference has been health. When Lockett looked to break out at the end of his rookie year, he was healthy and explosive. Since then, he’s been hit with nagging injuries. I was surprised to see that he’s only missed 1 game in his 3 year career. But even last year, he had 8 games with less than 2 catches. I understand he was the 4^th option but still. I don’t think Lockett makes the leap this year. He’s a decent receiver, and probably worth a flier for upside, but don’t predict a breakout.

Brandon Marshall – Let’s not forget the great career Brandon Marshall had. He managed 100+ catch seasons for 3 different teams, has 8 1,000 yard seasons to his ledger and was one of the better receivers of all time. My guess is he falls short of the hall of fame, but he’s closer than you think. However, his career ended in 2016. Do not draft Marshall. Do not think Marshall will be a red zone threat (admittedly, I can see it for September as a Pete Carroll idiotic move). Instead, act like your fantasy teams from 6 years ago suggested, and forget Brandon Marshall.

That’s a topical reference.

T

The #1 TE is Ed Dickson. Do I really need to say anymore? Do not draft a Seattle TE. However, they have featured the TE often, so keep the position in mind for pick ups. Just, for the love of God, don’t draft a Seattle TE unless Brandon Marshall gets positional eligibility. Then doubly avoid him.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Talk about disappointments. Remember how much hype was around the Bucs last year? The acquisition of DeSean Jackson to free up Mike Evans even more. The full development of Jameis Winston. The resurgence of Doug Martin. I don’t think we could have been more wrong on a roster if we tried. The Bucs flat out stunk and every single piece on the team disappointed, significantly. Even “bulletproof” Mike Evans didn’t really do anything. I feel no sympathy for any of you Bucs fans. Today, I wouldn’t be surprised to learn Jacob deGrom had contracted Polio.

There really isn’t much new here, other than the casting off of Doug Martin. Martin went from Rookie sensation, to bum, to revitalized star, to atrocious. He failed to average even 3 yards a carry for two seasons. I mean, most players who trip over their own feet on their first step and average 3. The backfield is crowded, and I’m not sure it’s full of talent, but it’ll be a difficult one to figure out. At least we can rely on Evans and Winston

Wait, what was that about Winston?

Oh, I almost forgot to mention that Winston was suspended for being a pretty bad human being. Look, I know these situations are he said she said, but Winston’s been involved in far too many incidents in the past few years. In an absolute stacked division, this could be a team who packs in it in October and moves on from Winston in the off season. To say I don’t like this squad is to say water is wet, the sky is blue, and the Wilpons belong is the 8^th layer of Hell.

Despite all these negatives, there’s still probably fantasy value here so let’s have a peek.

QBs

Jameis Winston – I was all in on Winston as a late round QB last year and boy did he disappoint. Nevertheless, I was even ready to give him another shot until the suspension. In goes without saying, but Winston is undraftable due to his three game absence. This isn’t a position you can afford to stash anyone who isn’t on the Rodgers level.

What I will point out is Winston was very good from weeks 13-16, showing the talent everyone has been hoping for. However, before that, he was extremely inconsistent. I don’t think he’s ever going to be the franchise guy he was drafted to be, but in the right matchup he remains streamable, especially with Evans and the potential for a DeSean blowup game. He’s a middle of the road fantasy contributor, pretty much just like in real life. I don’t foresee a leap.

Ryan Fitzpatrick – This is not an endorsement to play backup Ryan Fitzpatrick for the first three games of the season. God no. Fitzpatrick is awful and the Bucs schedule starts up brutal. This is an endorsement for the WRs though. In the games Fitz started last year, Mike Evans was targeted heavily and played fine, if not spectacular. Hmm, kind of a microcosm for the full season. You can be weary of the team and the schedule, but Fitzpatrick shouldn’t cause you any fantasy problems unless you accidentally start him.

RBs

Ronald Jones – There’s been conflicting reports on the projected use of Ronald Jones. Some beat writers have pegged him for a 15-20 touch load each game. Others view the backfield as a nasty 3 headed monster where fantasy players will need to use the magic 8-ball to determine who to start. It might be best to avoid this muddled backfield and let other people try their luck at it.

But let’s be serious, who’s competing against Jones, who was a track athlete on top of being a good running back? He definitely has the speed and big play ability, but consistency seems to be an issue. He seems like a home run hitter, meaning a lot of carries will go for nothing. Hopefully, he learns to take what the defense gives at times, and learn when to go for pay dirt. He’s also was a shockingly bad receiver in college, snagging less than 1 catch a game. Jones will share the backfield, but for the most part, it’s his. He’s on the RB2/RB3 bubble and could make a decent flex option.

Peyton Barber – Barber is the perfect example of why fantasy is a dumb game. Last year, Barber had a 23 carry, 102 performance, chipping in 4 catches for 41 yards. In a .5 PPR league, that game was worth 16.3 points. He also had a 5 carry, 7 yard game, but with two TDs, earning 12.7 points. Do you see the problem there?

Barber was meh in his time as the lead back at the end of 2017. He averaged a shade under 4 yards a carry, but really doesn’t catch enough to be involved. You’re relying on TDs for relevance, and that’s never fun. He will be involved this year, though his role seems to be as an early down spell back and potential goal line vulture. Barber claims to have lost weight to get faster and wants to run for 1,000 yards. This is great and all, but those are the type of fluff pieces everyone gets written about them in the preseason. A late flier and no more.

Charles Sims – Boy was I wrong about Sims. After his 2015 campaign, I thought Sims was a future RB 2 and PPR maven. Instead, he’s been injured, and last year, nearly forgotten. Outside of pass catching, Sims is virtually useless, and even that one skill isn’t special. Maybe Sims carves some touches out as the third down back, but there’s nothing beyond that. And if Jones can figure out what a reception is, Sims is basically fodder. Do not draft based on one good season, which was 3 years ago.

Jacquizz Rodgers – While he was never spectacular, Jacquizz was always a decent fill in running back when he was given a start, and a great base for a fantasy team name. I remember in 2016, where the Bucs gave Rodgers irresponsible work loads for his size, and while he wouldn’t made much of an impact, those carries added up. Don’t expect much from Rodgers this season – just remember the name if 3 Bucs get hurt in front of him.

WRs

Mike Evans –  The fantasy death of Mike Evans has been overstated. It seems ever odd year, Evan disappoints,, while he dominates even years. That’s a good sign for fantasy. Draft him in the top of the first round then!

Ok, fine, we’ll do actually analysis. Have a sense of humor, jeez.

The biggest issue with Evan’s “bad” years is TDs. IN his two dominant campaigns, he had 12 TDs each. In his two weaker seasons, he has 8 TDs total. Otherwise, the targets are there. He seems like a mortal lock for 125+ tagets and 1,000 yards and you have to assume the TDs go up. If Evans just caught 8 TDs you wouldn’t be getting this discount.

Now, the Bucs schedule is hard out of the gate, so perhaps Evans makes a better buy low trade target than a player to draft. However, in the third round, he’s tough to pass on. Don’t fear Fitzpatrick in the first three games; he’ll force feed Evans or throw 9 picks trying. A great WR 2.

DeSean Jackson – I won’t pretend this write up will be rational. I’ve never liked Jackson and I’m not going to start this year. Speed receivers don’t usually get better after age 30, and Jackson shows no rapport with Winston last season. Sure, he’ll be ok at times, but Jackson is the prototype for boom and bust receivers. If you like your players scoring 35 on your bench and then 2.3 when you play them, Jackson is a hall of fame pick. Perhaps he can transition to the slot, but something tells me Jackson’s career will live or die outside. I think it’s dying soon.

Chris Godwin – From weeks 10-17, Godwin had at least 68 yards in 4 games, including an 111, 1TD performance in week 17. During that same period, he had 4 games of under 38 yards. He also managed a robust 15.4 Yards per reception. Hmm? Does this sound familiar? Why, it seems like Godwin is a 10 year younger DeSean Jackson. Why then, at the end of your draft, would you ever draft Jackson when you can get more upside? Since the Bucs won’t be good this year, Jackson might be expendable. I see Godwin having opportunities by mid season, if not sooner. He probably doesn’t need to be drafted, but as a pick up, he might provide some value.

TEs

OJ Howard – The biggest problem with Tampa Bay Tight Ends is that they’re two of them. If I’m making a wager on who matters more for fantasy, I’m picking the younger, former first round pick Howard. For a rookie TE, Howard had a solid showing. In many ways, last year was a breakthrough for the rookie TE as three were relevant. Who would have guessed? When Winston is active, he targets the TE, and Howard is the athletic type of option that could easily emerge as the second option in the offense… if there wasn’t another, competing TE lining up most snaps too. It’s porbbaly best to avoid this platoon all together to avoid rage.

Cameron Brate – I would have Howard in my top 7-8 TEs if not for Brate. Not only is he a solid player, the Bucs paid him in the off season to stay. Now, perhaps they plan on a two TE offense. The Colts and Pats have deployed passing attacks featuring two. In real life, maybe this works, but in fantasy it sucks. It was shocking Brate got paid so much considering Howard was there, but now you have to either avoid both, or hope you can figure out who’s receiving the TDs. Both Brate and Howard might finish around 500 yards and 5 TDs.

If I have to pick one, I’m going with the pedigree of OJ Howard, but I’d just grab George Kittle instead.