2018 Bloggin Hood Fantasy Football Preview – Miami and Minnesota Depth Charts
July 23, 2018Every year, thousands of fantasy players win their leagues. Not only do they receive a giant trophy, they also receive a champion’s pay check and the right to mock the rest of their league mates until next season. Few things in life are more rewarding than winning, but even fewer top winning when you’ve done nothing but start virtual players. Truly, it’s the reason many of us get out of bed in the morning.
However, for every winner, there are hundreds of thousands of losers. Some of these poor unfortunate souls finish in second place. Others just miss the playoffs. But a select few come in dead last. These outcasts are mocked by even the next to last place finisher, forced to suffer through unending punishments and shamed to the point of severe confidence loss. There’s a reason you see a bunch of Viagra commercials during the NFL season. That will put those images of people sitting in adjacent tubs outside in a whole new light.
The 2018 Bloggin Hood Fantasy guide doesn’t look to help the first place winner. No, that’s not the Bloggin Hood way. Instead, we intend to give to the poor(poorly informed) by taking knowledge through tons of research(the rich). Now, who actually did this research? Why me, Bloggin Hood of course. If you don’t trust my work, go ahead suck a rock, or kick lemons. Do it in reverse and see if I care.
The Blogging Hood Fantasy guide is not for the faint of heart. The word count would make George RR Martin blush, mostly because he’s forgotten how to write. This year, we’re not even stopping at one preview. Welcome to Part 1 of the 2018 fantasy guide – Team Previews.
Over the next 16 weekdays, right until the last day in July, we’ll be looking at two NFL depth charts for potential breakouts, busts, and deep names to consider. What we will not be doing in part one is addresses ADP, or any actual rankings. I haven’t looked at any of that stuff yet. At this point in the year, it’s irrelevant. If you’re drafting in July, it means you’re baseball team has probably tanked to 12th place. It’s way too early to hone in on ADP. We’ll save that for part two.
If you followed the Bloggin Hood Fantasy Baseball guide and find yourself in 12th place, no refunds.
Without further ado, let’s dissect two team’s depth charts, as per rotoworld.com.
Miami Dolphins
This might be the best pass from Ryan Tannehill all season
If you don’t follow the AFC East closely, a quick glance at the rosters should be all the explanation you need as to why the Patriots have a bye in the playoffs every year. The Dolphins were coming off a 2016 playoff birth, only to immediately lose Ryan Tannehill for the season, and instead of turning to decent QB Matt Moore, went out and paid Jay Culter 10 million dollars to be terrible. That’s good management.
It wasn’t very surprising that the Dolphins weren’t very good last year especially when you consider their starting QB was supposed to be in the broadcasting booth. However, I think the projections of the Dolphins being the worst team in football is a bit premature. I mean, everyone remembers the Bills’ roster, right? Not to mention, they play in the same division as the New York Football Jets. The Jets! They could be far and away the second best team in the division. That should project them for 5-6 wins. Can the league please put the Pats in a real division, even for just a year? I need something to root for other than chaos and more TB12 related suspensions.
A lot of the Dolphins prospects rest on Ryan Tannehill’ shoulder, which isn’t very good. He’s never really impressed me. As a rule of thumb, I prefer my QBs to have played QB for their full collegiate career instead of WR. Consider me all fashion.
This is a roster with several promising players, but uncertainty in playing time and target distribution bring down their value. THere’s only really one week 1 starter on the roster, and even that is a bit nerve wrecking.
QBs
Ryan Tannehill? – No, that was an honest question. I actually looked to see if Matt Moore was still on the roster, but he is not, replaced with Brock Osweiller. So year, Tannehill is the starter for 2018.
Tannehill has always been a better fantasy QB than real life one because of his ability to run. He’ll never put up the gaudy totals that Russell Wilson does, but it’s enough to make his points look better than his production. He is losing Jarvis Landry, which is a key loss as Tannehill isn’t very accurate. I expect him to struggle, but there’s nobody for the team to turn to so he should start all year. I can see streaming him in a great matchup, but otherwise, let somebody else take him. You can stream him by week 3 anyway.
RBs
Kenyan Drake – This isn’t the best year to have Drake anywhere in your name. Hopefully Pusha T leaves Kenyan alone.
When Drake got the majority of the touches toward the end of the season, he was productive and explosive. He didn’t have a game where he averaged less than 4.6 YPC when he got at least 15 touches. Granted, his large carry games came at the end of the year, when Miami threw anything against the wall and hoped it stuck. Drake has talent, and Tannehill’s running threat should help create decent sized holes. He’s also a decent pass catching back. It seems like everything is in line for him, but I don’t know if I want him being my second RB. As you can see, the Dolphins brought in a veteran for the sole purpose of annoyance to fantasy owners. They also drafted a back, and I’m not sure how the passing work will break down. I’d say he’s a back end RB 2 with the potential for more. Just don’t spend too much on him.
Frank Gore – The ageless one just keeps on going. He’s like the energizer bunny, except there’s absolutely no explosion left. Gore is a depth play that shouldn’t see the field other than spell situations. But remember, teams are stupid. It wouldn’t surprise me if Gore got 8-10 touches early in the season while the Dolphins pretend to be competitive. I don’t see any point in drafting Gore but I thin he’s going to get more work than you’d expect. My hunch is that the Dolphins don’t fully trust Drake. Hey, I warned you they weren’t a smart organization.
Kalen Ballage – Here’s the real reason to be worried about Drake. Balllage is a huge back who can also catch passes very well. Even though he was a 4th round pick, it’s likely Ballage carves out playing time, whether it’s in the 3rd down role, or a more significant workload. Ballage lowers Drake’s upside and while I don’t see the rookie lighting the world on fire, just becoming the pass catcher muddles everything up. If the Dolphins were smart, they’d make Ballage the change of pace back. I worry that he gets the goal line work at his size. He’s a decent late round play that will make the Drake drafter furious on a good share of Sundays.
WRs
Kenny Stills – Stills had a good season last year, but comes into 2018 as a trap player. It’s tough for a deep threat who’s never really been drafted highly to be a trap player, but here me out. In 2016, Still caught 9 TDs. In 2017, Stills had over 850 yards and 6TDs, a pretty solid season. However, a lot of this production came from Matt Moore, Stills’ BFF. Unfortunately for the pair, Moore is no longer on the roster. At least with Jay Cutler, Stills could hope for a few, albeit woeful, deep targets. With Tannehill, Stills won’t see much depth on the passes his way. I don’t think he’s worth anything more than a late pick. If Stills somehow ends up with Matt Moore again though, sign me up.
DeVante Parker – The hype for DeVante Parker builds every off season, and every off season, the same disappointment hits. There’s a chance he builds off of his 2016 with Tannehill, but at this point, I have to see it to believe it. This is Parker’s 4th year and he hasn’t really broken out yet. He’s a back end of the bench player – the type you can find on the waiver wire Sunday morning. If you want an upside play, it’s fine, but I wouldn’t worry about drafting him personally.
Danny Amendola – In theory, this makes a lot of sense. Amendola can come in and take the Jarvis Landry role – dominating the short targets to move the chains, and be a PPR monster. Amendola himself is no stranger to the role, and seemed to sign in the one place where his skills could be used to the fullest. The issue is Amendola is no stranger to the IR list either. There’s no realistic way Amendola stays healthy for 16 games. He’ll be a solid play when his active, and I actually think he’ll be the most productive on WR a per game basis. But, be honest, how many healthy games are you banking on? 8? 6? Keep in mind that when Amendola is hurt, Drake or Ballage’s value rises, depending who gets the passing work.
TEs
Is it still Julius Thomas? What about Jordan Cameron? According to Roto world, it’s something called a Mike Gesicki. I’ll pass, which is quite contrary to what the Dolphis will do with their TEs. You may see some hype for Gesicki, but he’s a rookie. Evan Engram, who’s a WR with TE eligibility was the first good rookie TE since the Gronk and Aaron Hernandez year. Gronk might be the best TE of all time and Hernandez had a history of killing it. Don’t fall for this trap at all. I don’t mind picking up Gesicki later in the year, but it’s a bad draft pick.
Minnesota Vikings
Bloggin Hood has not been shy on his Stefon Diggs’ love and this year is no different
The Vikings are far and away one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this year. That’s great news for the rest of the league. The few times the Vikings have been favorites in key situations, things have ended poorly. Consider that all they needed to do to make the Super Bowl after one of the biggest miracle plays in NFL history was beat Nick Foles, and they went and got ruined. I don’t think that’s a good sign. They also would have to beat, at least, the Rams and Eagles, so before we start giving out Super Bowl spots, let’s settle down.
If any of you Viking fans are mad at me for those remarks, remember, I’m a Mets and Jets fan. I’m allowed to be cruel and bitter because that’s all I know.
Also, I’d like to mention 1998 and Brett Favre’s backbreaking INT against the Saints.
I do agree the Vikings have one of the best rosters in the league. They have a swarming defense, a top running back, two excellent receivers and an upgrade at quarterback. I think so at least. There’s plenty of debates on how good Kirk Cousins is, and while I think that question will be answered quickly, I know I’m glad I didn’t pay him two dollar sign bags of money a year to find out.
There’s a lot of fantasy goodness here, with five sure fire starters on the roster, not including the defense which should be drafted in the top five at that position too. There’s not a lot of shut down defenses in this division, so expect this team to put up some fantasy points. You should not be disappointed by the results of your Vikings. At least for fantasy purposes.
QBs
Kirk Cousins – Cousins’ 2017 was a clear step back statistically, losing about 1,000 yards passing yards on the year. Most of his other stats were roughly in line with everything else. He also hated the team he was on, and didn’t seem all that interesting in helping out the organization. I think you have to discard 2017 when evaluating Cousins.
What I see is a turnover prone QB who’s decent enough, but not near the top of the QB class. The latter doesn’t really matter in fantasy. Even the turnovers don’t hurt him all that much. Now, factor in the three weapons around him will be the best he’s ever played with, and you could have a solid fantasy QB. I feel the Vikings hype might make Cousins’ price too high for me. I’m not interested in a QB until at least the 8th round. Still, if QB security is your thing, you an do worse than Cousins. Just, don’t watch him play live. Save the hart damage for chicken wings.
RBs
Dalvin Cook – An ACL tear in October ruined what was going to be a dominant rookie season. Cook proved he could do it all at the NFL level. He was averaging 4.8 yards a carry, caught 11 passes in 4 games, and showed he could be a true 3 down back. Cook fell in the draft in 2017 because of poor combine numbers, but watching his tape showed he always had burst and explosiveness. He’s another example of why putting a ton of stock in the combine is kind of stupid. Maybe the actual games played are the best way to tell how good a player will be. But what do I know? I’m still backing Christine Michael.
For me, Cook is a definitely RB1. There’s a bit of risk coming off an ACL tear, but players regularly bounce back from the injury when they are under 30, and Cook is only 22. He shouldn’t have any problem taking the reins back from Latavius Murray. Anytime around the turn is a good time to add Cook to your team.
Latavius Murray – While he certainly wasn’t efficient, Murray isn’t a bad back up to have. His 3.9 YPC isn’t the worst in the league by far, and he was decent around the goal line, scoring 8 TDs. Murray was signed to be the starter, so there’s a chance he gets more carries then we expect. He also isn’t much of a pass catcher so that job is fully Cook’s. Murray is a handcuff that’ll earn a few carries, which may include goal line work. I think it’s a 75-25% split in favor of Cook, but i we know Cook is on the field at the goal line, Murray doesn’t have more value
WRs
Adam Thielen – The choice between Thielen and Diggs really comes down to personal preference. Both are sure fire every week starters, and should help shape your rosters based on your selection. I think they will roughly go around the same draft spot, and there’s a good chance I’ll rank them next to each other.
Thielen is classified as a Wes Welker type – a slot receiver who has low depth of target and racks up yardage on a lot of short passes. This is a lazy comparison though, as Thielen is more than just a safety valve. He’s averaged 14 yards per catch, and that didn’t decrease from his expanded role in the offense. Thielen is sure handed, but he’s also perfectly capable of big plays. The only risks in Thielen’s game is his lack of TDs (only 9 in the past two seasons) and whether he has a rapport with Captain Kirk. Guessing TDs is a fool’s errand, and you just have to hope he crosses the pylon more in 2018. As for Cousins, there’s no reason not to like Thielen and the Vikings only have four viable receiving options. Sure, they’re all good, but even if Thielen was Cousins’ fourth favorite target, he still might land into 120 targets. I expect him to lead the Vikings in targets, catches and yards. He’s a low end WR1 so should come at a slight discount. 100 catches and 1,400 yards is not out of the question.
Stefon Diggs – Similar to Thielen, Diggs is characterized as a boom or bust big play threat. This was somewhat true last year, but earlier in his career, he played more of a slot role, and looked to be on pace to be a more explosive Jarvis Landry. He moved outside to accommodate Thielen’s skill set, but Diggs actually averages significantly less per catch in his career than Thielen. I think it speaks of their versatility more than anything.
The biggest knock on Diggs is his health, which is totally fair. You’re draft him at a slight discount because of the likelihood of 14 games played. However, in the 13 games played where he was healthy, he has at least 4 catches in 11 of them. There were certainly a few bad games in there, but he did score 8 times and seems to be the go to option in the red zone. I think there’s some consistency here with the potential to explode, making Diggs also a borderline WR1. I think Diggs is a better talent than Thielen (by a hair), but would recommend Thielen to go first in drafts for his better health record. It’s close though. If you want upside, few offer more than Diggs.
TEs
Kyle Rudolph – I was expected to knock Rudolph to hype of Thielen and Diggs, but then I remembered how much Cousins loves to throw to TEs. Rudolph doesn’t have the talent of a Jordan Reed or a Vernon Davis, but is still a decent target, especially at the red zone. He’s the biggest receiver the team has, but will be TD dependent. For his career, he’s struggled to average over 10 yards a catch, so without TDs he’s not very valuable. He’ll probably be over drafted, but I see him as a solid TE to play nearly every week. Think 50-60 catches, 650 yards and 8 scores. You could do much worse, but he won’t be worth his price.
