10 Players I Love More Than You

This is not an article I was looking forward to writing, for multiple reasons:

1). This preview is well over 100,000 words. I basically wrote a novel’s worth of information that could be proven false in a few short weeks. Rarely can opinions be wrong. Fantasy football is one of those rare instances. I look forward to the flames of fury readers will have when my predictions aren’t perfect. Great.

2). None of my opinions have really changed. Sure, I’ve come around to certain players and started to fade others, but there’s not huge shifts since I tiered out the positions, minus injury concerns. I’m not doing any 180s. You won’t see me suddenly saying “You know, Peppa Pig isn’t a self centered asshole and truly loves her father. I recommend this show to all.” I have conviction people.

Unless there’s a sponsorship involved. Please @ me Nick Jr.

3). The vast majority of my readers, and trust me, the plural usage was to protect my pride, play in my leagues. They will use this information for their own benefit. I probably won’t see any of these guys without reaching for the stars.  That sucks.

But we’ve come this far. There’s no turning back now. So, we’re plowing through. My fingers can rest soon enough.

The following list of players are the guys I believe will outperform their average draft position. I used my ranks, and compared them with the consensus on fantasy pros and Yahoo, since that’s the league most people play on. If you play on another’s site, you’ll be able to compare their ranks with mine on Thursday.

This list isn’t a must draft decree or declaring top 5 status for these players. It’s just the guys I like, both for value and opportunity. A few of these guys will fail and that happens. Fantasy is a cruel, evil game. I don’t know why we play it, especially for money. Finger finger fillet is a much less painful one honestly. Nevertheless, we do play it, so use this as a guide in your draft.

Finally, you’ll see that I listed 13 players here instead of 10. Math wasn’t never my strong suit. Know the last two players are sleepers, so I threw them in as extras. Doug Baldwin (spoilers) is also a special case with his injury, and you’ll see what I mean over the next few days.

Without further ado, here are 10 (13) guys I love more than you.

Kareem Hunt – It’s trendy to mock Andy and his questionable game scripts. In fact, it’s so trendy, let’s hop on. Use the hashtag #AndybeingAndy on twitter and let’s get Bloggin Hood viral!

Is anybody doing it? I didn’t think so.

While it is frustrating at times owning an Andy Reid led RB, it’s also extremely profitable. When Reid has a weapon, he gets use out of the player, though there will be a 3-4 week period where you’ll want to scream. That was November for Hunt last year. However, even in his TD drought, he was still productive, gaining yards and remaining elusive. The only player stopping him was Reid. That hasn’t changed, but if you can get the league leader in rushing, who’s situation in my opinion has only improved, in the middle of the first round, you pounce. Perhaps Hunt loses some carries. He’ll trade that by being more involved in the passing game. I’d make that trade. With no chance at consistent 8 man fronts, Hunt will run wild and could find himself right back as a top 5 RB. Don’t fear the Reid, and dream of Kareem guiding you to a title.

Devonta Freeman – Draft fatigue is a real thing. At this point, Freeman has been at the top of draft boards for several years and most players have had him on their team. Players are quick to move on to the next new thing, and that’s also true for dating so be careful out there, my single friends. Nobody wants Freeman when they have new, exciting options like Fournette, Barkley, Hunt and even McKinnon. Don’t fall for this trap. Sure, Freeman might be boring, but 1,200 yards and involvement in a great offense isn’t. Plus, despite what it may seem, Freeman has upside. He can catch passes, and the team should score more than last season. As a second round pick, he’s a perfect compliment to any player you select in the first round. If Freeman is available for a discount, you need to capitalize.

TY Hilton – Now that we’ve seen Andrew Luck throw a football (decently), Hilton goes from player you pray gets taken before your 4^th round pick, to a player I want on my teams. Looking at the talent around him, why can’t Hilton lead the league in targets this year? Ok, sure, there’s Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins, but besides them? This could be the Hilton season where everything falls right and then next year he’s mistakenly drafted like 9^th overall. As long as Luck is there, Hilton will return WR 1 value. If people are unaware of Luck’s health and you get him in the third round, congrats. Hilton is a name brand, luxury fantasy option you’ll want staying on your roster.

Doug Baldwin – This is the most difficult player to rank in fantasy right now because of his knee injury. Reports are he’ll play week 1, but it’s so far ahead of the opening weekend that a lot can happen. If we’re being positive and assume health, Baldwin is pretty much like Hilton – the only game is town tied to a great QB. Although I’d expect the total passing attempts to be lower than the Colts, the Seahawks will need to sling it. Baldwin should be the main benefactor. Already an underrated player, Baldwin could be primed for national attention. If you draft Baldwin this year, you’ll be ready to bring back the Dougie in his honor.

In case you haven’t noticed, I’m forcing really bad puns for each pick. You want this list? Deal with the bad lines.

(This spot was reserved for Derrius Guice) – This is a shame. Guice was set to be a top 15 RB this year, and somebody I was really growing on as the preseason went on, but then he tore his ACL. We didn’t even get a chance to draft him (hopefully. This is why you never draft early). I don’t think the Redskins have a good in house replacement. Chris Thompson is nearly exclusively used as a receiver, and the other backs are plodders. Here’s a wild prediction – Ameer Abdullah ends up here. Now that’s a transaction I’d be interested in. Don’t expect the Redskin RBS to be mentioned much beyond this. They aren’t very good for fantasy. If I had to pick one, it’s Thompson, with Samaje Perine  returning for the between the tackles role. I don’t think Perine is really good, but they don’t really have a choice right now.

Chris Hogan – The only real outside weapon on the Pats, I fear no Decker, Britt or Dorsett. While healthy, Hogan was a terror, actually performing as a WR1 before injuries slowed him down. Sure, he might technically be the third option when all Pats receivers are healthy, but the team uses Gronk like a Ferrari – only taking the covering off when they really need him. Edelman is not a threat to Hogan’s outside work and who knows if he’ll return to his old role? Hogan has a hall of fame QB and fills a niche the team hasn’t had since Randy Moss retired. This is the year Hogan goes Hollywood, brother. Don’t miss out, as he’s a steal at his current ADP.

Dion Lewis – There’s a lot riding this season on Lewis. I pegged him as a value early and haven’t really wavered. My rationale is that the Titans don’t have elite pass catching options. Derrick Henry, who weaves in and out of being overrated to underrated, cannot catch. Lewis should be on the field a lot in this new offense, which is supposed to be up tempo. Plus, Lewis offers flexibility – he can run between the tackles better than the average back. He’s the all purpose running back that we crave as fantasy players. The Titans knew what they had in Henry and paid Lewis anyway, so it’s not a fluke. We will all remember one Titan at the end of 2018, and his name will be Dion Lewis.

PS, I thought I was down on Henry, but as you’ll see Thursday, I have the same, exact ranking of Henry as the consensus. I nailed that one.

Marshawn Lynch – Take one serving of a coach still constructing his playbook out of the early 2000s, add a older running back whose got some left in a tank, and sprinkle in a lot of doubters. That’s a recipe for a discount RB2. Unlike most backs going in the 7th round, Lynch has no real competition for carries, unless you think Doug Martin is a thing (he’s not). I actually don’t think the Raiders will be a mess, but they will run, and that’s all Marshawn’s work. He’s the unquestioned goal line back and you can get him as your 3rd or 4th RB. What’s not to like? Unless your diabetic, go ahead and taste the rainbow.

Emmanuel Sanders – Every year, Sanders is undervalued, but this year, it’s ridiculous. The only reason he had a down 2017 was he didn’t have an NFL QB to throw him passes. He now has that privilege. He was also insanely hobbled, which is not the case in camp. Sanders is probably going two rounds too late and I think he finishes as a top 24 WE. Everyone has accepted the return of Demayrius Thomas with no question. Why not the same with Sanders? Don’t buck this Bronco; draft with confidence.

Jamaal Williams/Aaron Jones – Here’s something that looks conflicting, but it’s really not. Kinda. We can all agree the Packers should be good on offense. Therefore, a running back on the team will have value. We just don’t know who that back is. I think it’s Jones, but he’s missing two games to start the year. I accept that Jamaal Williams can do well enough to keep the job. The important thing is nobody wants these guys – often going after the first 100 picks. That’s insanity.

I recommend taking a stab at either in the 7th round. If you have 2-3 starting backs, drafting Jones is a home run pick that could win you the league if it hits. If you’re RB weak, drafting Williams gives you a starter who could keep the job, and bring stability to your stacked WRs (I’ll assume you didn’t drop the ball during the draft). I’m not even against Montgomery here, though that’s more of a PPR play. You don’t have to be a cheese head to make some cheddar off the Packers’ backfield. You just need to play it smart.

Marquise Lee – Nobody with football knowledge will mistake Lee for a Stud WR. However, he got paid like one and the Jags didn’t bring in much competition. Sure, there’s a trio of young options that can develop into a WR 1 and deep threat. Honestly, that’s great news. That’ll keep elite corners off the Jags’ safety value. Lee could return 70 catch, 800 yard value in the late rounds. That’s a deal, even if you know it’s not the cleanest routes or the most elite skills. Still, until we see a youngster emerge, Lee remains the marquee of the targets in this core.

Seriously, you people are still reading after that one? Alright then. Fair enough.

Chris Carson – I want to again state that Carson is nothing more than a guy. He’s not a special talent and he has 1 above average game in his career, which spans four games. This should be Rashaad Penny’s backfield by a mile. However, Pete Carroll is crazy. This is a man who benched a QB who got a 50+ million dollar contract in favor of a low rent draft pick. Of course, that low rent draft pick became Russell Wilson. Maybe there’s something to it.

The key to fantasy is finding value. Few values are greater than a mid round RB nobody believes in. Why not take the chance? He starts on your bench and if he flops and Penny wins the job, cut him. If he ends up being good, you got a discount starter. It doesn’t hurt that Penny is nicked up right now. Carson will likely start, at least for week 1 if Penny misses some practice time. Don’t be like Chris’ uncle Ben, and fall asleep at the podium. Draft away.

Matt Breida – Reports and swirling that Jerick McKinnon is “not a bell cow back”. Wow, did somebody actually watch a Vikings game for the past 3 years? McKinnon is fine, but not a 25 touch a game player. Somebody needs to shoulder the load. Well, that’s a poor choice of words as Breida currently has a shoulder ailment. However, you weren’t rolling Breida out every week, especially not week 1. No, I don’t love the talent, but he’s a decent player in a better situation and if the 49ers are good, he’ll be the goal line back. When you’re digging for gold, you can do worse than Breida. I don’t think he’ll be pushed much for the role when he returns to action.

John Brown – Lastly, I want to use some basic logic. This is new to me, so please, bare with me. Joe Flacco is awful. But, he does two things well – check down like a champ, and throw it deep. The Ravens have the check downs covered, but no deep threat…except John Brown. This is an accomplished receiver with a new leash on his career. There’s nothing guaranteed, but I could see a really good year from a last round pick. Brown might very well put you in the black this year.

Ok, I feel like that line pushed it. We’re done for today.